Sequential linking of computable general equilibrium and microsimulation models: A comparison of behavioural and reweighting techniques
- Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research The University of Melbourne, Australia
Cite this article
as: N. Hérault; 2010; Sequential linking of computable general equilibrium and microsimulation models: A comparison of behavioural and reweighting techniques; International Journal of Microsimulation; 3(1); 35-42.
doi: 10.34196/ijm.00023
Tables
Table 1
CGE Simulation Results from the Elimination of Import Tariffs.
| Base values (in billions of rand) | Percentage change from base year | |
|---|---|---|
| Real GDP | 888 | 0.4 |
| CPI | − | −0.6 |
| Real exchange rate | − | −0.2 |
| Nominal exchange rate | − | 0.0 |
| Exports (volume) | 249 | 1.0 |
| Imports (volume) | 225 | 2.0 |
| Trade balance | 5% of GDP | −0.2a |
| Private savings | R154 | 1.2 |
| Government deficit | −1.9% of GDP | −0.7a |
| Investment (volume) | 132 | 0.0 |
| Factor real returns | ||
| Capital | − | 1.9 |
| Low-skilled labour | − | 0.0 |
| Skilled labour | − | 0.0 |
| High-skilled labour | − | 0.6 |
| Factor demand (in millions of workers) | ||
| Low-skilled labour | 3.6 | 0.6 |
| Skilled labour | 2.7 | 0.7 |
| High-skilled labour | 1.1 | 0.3 |
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Note:
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a
Changes are expressed in percentage points of GDP.
Table 2
Simulation Results from the two alternative specifications of the MS Model (percentage change from base values).
| Base values | Behavioural approach | Reweighting approach | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | Blacks | Coloureds | Asians | Whites | All | Blacks | Coloureds | Asians | Whites | ||
| Inactivea | 28,032 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 |
| Unemployeda | 3,806 | −0.4 | −0.4 | −0.6 | −0.9 | −0.9 | −0.3 | −0.2 | −0.6 | −0.4 | −0.6 |
| Subsistence agriculturea | 736 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.6 | −0.5 | −0.2 |
| Informal workersa | 3,357 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.4 | −0.1 | 0.6 | −0.4 | −0.3 | −0.7 | −0.7 | −0.8 |
| Formal workersa | 7,307 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Real income per capitab | 11,098 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Headcount Indexc | 29.0 | −1.1 | −1.1 | −0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.8 | −0.8 | −1.1 | −0.8 | −0.6 |
| Poverty Gap Indexc | 11.3 | −2.0 | −1.9 | −4.4 | −9.9 | −13.6 | −1.1 | −1.1 | −1.8 | −1.0 | −3.3 |
| Gini | 0.67 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
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a
Base values in thousands.
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b
Average real disposable income per capita in Rand per year.
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c
The poverty line is the international $2/day poverty line (R2,088/year/capita in 2000 prices).
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