1. Micro-macro linkage
  2. Trade
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Impacts of Trade Liberalization on Poverty and Inequality in Argentina: Policy Insights from a Non-parametric CGE Microsimulation Analysis

  1. Martín Cicowiez  Is a corresponding author
  2. Carolina Díaz-Bonilla  Is a corresponding author
  3. Eugenio Díaz-Bonilla  Is a corresponding author
  1. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Argentina
  2. World Bank Group, USA
  3. Inter-American Development Bank, USA
Research note
Volume 3(1) Spring 2010
Cite this article as: M. Cicowiez, C. Díaz-Bonilla, E. Díaz-Bonilla; 2010; Impacts of Trade Liberalization on Poverty and Inequality in Argentina: Policy Insights from a Non-parametric CGE Microsimulation Analysis; International Journal of Microsimulation; 3(1); 118-122. doi: 10.34196/ijm.00031
3 tables

Tables

Table 1
Model simulations.
Simulation Scenario Description
1 GLOB Removing all agricultural subsidies and all import and export taxes on goods trade in rest-of-the-world and Argentina
2 GLOBag Same as GLOB except just for agricultural reform (i.e., domestic, import and export taxes and subsidies removed only on agricultural products)
3 WTO Same as GLOB except not removing export taxes
4 WTOag Same as WTO except just agricultural reform
5 ROW Same as GLOB except just in rest of the world, and because it does not include Argentina, export taxes in this country are operational in this simulation
6 ROWag Same as ROW except just agricultural reform
7 ARG Same as GLOB except just in Argentina
8 ARGag Same as ARG except just agricultural reform
9 ARG-ex Same as ARG except only removing export taxes in all categories of goods and services, and again only in Argentina
10 ARGag-ex Same as Sim 9 except just agricultural reform
Table 2
Aggregate simulation results
BASE GLOB GLOBag WTO WTOag ROW ROWag ARG ARGag ARG-ex ARGagex
GDP factor cost (bn LCU)a 4,395 −0.2 −0.8 1.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 −0.4 −0.9 −1.7 −0.9
Household consumption (bn LCU)a 3,263 0.5 0.0 2.1 0.9 1.0 0.9 −0.5 −0.8 −1.7 −0.8
Poverty line a −- 6.3 6.0 2.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 4.9 4.8 4.1 4.8
Real exchange rate a 1 −4.6 −6.3 0.5 −2.9 −2.0 −2.9 −2.7 −3.5 −5.3 −3.5
Terms of trade a −- 0.1 1.6 1.0 2.0 2.3 2.0 −2.2 −0.6 −1.3 −0.6
Unemployment rate (%) b 12.3 −0.4 0.8 −2.6 −0.4 −0.6 −0.4 0.1 1.1 2.4 1.1
Extreme poverty rate (%) b 12.7 1.0 1.5 −0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.3 1.7 1.3
Moderate poverty rate (%) b 34.2 2.3 2.9 −0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.0 2.5 2.9 2.5
Gini household per capita income 0.499 0.499 0.500 0.495 0.498 0.498 0.498 0.499 0.500 0.502 0.500

  1. Source: Authors′ estimates

  2. a

    Percentage change from base;

  3. b

    Percentage points difference from base

Table 3
Sectoral simulation results (percent change from base)
BASE (bn LCU) GLOB GLOBag WTO WTOag ROW ROWag ARG ARGag ARG-ex ARGagex
GDP, agriculture 434 16.5 16.1 9.6 6.6 6.8 6.6 10.4 10.4 8.0 10.4
GDP, non-agriculture 3,961 −2.0 −2.7 0.6 −0.5 −0.4 −0.5 −1.6 −2.1 −2.8 −2.1
Exports, agriculture 470 44.0 43.8 15.3 11.4 10.9 11.4 34.4 34.6 30.4 34.6
Imports, agriculture 15 113.5 104.2 0.2 −3.0 1.0 −3.0 115.5 116.5 113.0 116.5
Exports, non-agriculture 894 0.6 −17.1 4.5 −7.1 −6.7 −7.1 7.4 −10.6 −4.0 −10.6
Imports non-agriculture 1,025 19.4 6.3 12.6 2.2 2.3 2.2 17.1 3.9 7.0 3.9
Food consumption (households) 641 −0.7 −1.1 1.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 −1.3 −1.6 −2.3 −1.6

  1. Source: Authors′ estimates

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