Figures and tables in Global Economic Crisis and Poverty in Pakistan

Abstract

In this case study we adopt a macro-micro framework in order to evaluate the impact of the current global crisis on the Pakistan economy. We use a ‘top-down’ approach to combine a static computable general equilibrium model with a microsimulation model. Our results suggest that between 2007 and 2009 the poverty headcount ratio is likely to have increased by almost 80 percent, from 22 to 40 percentage points. However, our results also show that this increase is attributable in part to the fuel and food crisis that preceded the financial crisis. Our results also indicate a differential impact, with wage increases for farm workers and a decrease in wages for skilled labour.

This article contains 3 tables.

Tables

Table 1. Pakistan – macroeconomic situation 2001–2009.

Indicators	2001	2005	2006	2007	2009*
GDP growth (%)	2.0	9.0	5.8	6.8	2.0
Exports (US $ billion)	9.2	14.4	16.4	16.9	17.8
Imports (US $ billion)	10.7	20.6	28.6	30.5	34.8
FDI (US $ billion)		1.5	3.5	5.1	3.7
Remittances (US $ billion)		4.2	4.6	5.5	7.8
External debt and liabilities (US $ billion)		35.4	37.2	40.3	52.8
Poverty headcount ratio	34.5	23.9	22.3		35 – 40
Poverty related expenditure (US $ billion)		5.3	6.3	7.0	3.8
Exchange Rate	58.4	59.4	59.9	60.6	78.0

Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan, State Bank of Pakistan - Annual Reports 2001–2009.

Provisional estimates.

Table 2. Decline in external resource inflow (foreign savings).

Variables	Percentage Change
Real Investment	−1.2
Government Revenue	0.9
Wages
Unskilled_farm	3.6
Unskilled_non farm	0.0
Skilled	−2.8
Self employment	0.2
Returns to Land	3.9
Exports
Cotton yarn	0.8
Textile	5.0
Consumer Prices
Food	3.4
Fuel	1.9
Poverty
FGT 1	3.6
FGT 2	1.5
FGT 3	0.9
Consumption (food)	−1.3

Table 3. Change in food consumption (quantity).

Product	Percentage change
Milk products	0.2
Meat & fish	−0.5
Fruits	−1.6
Vegetables	−1.7
Sugar products	−0.4
Beverages	−1.5
Cereals	1.3
Pulses	1.2
Oil & fats	−1.4
Tea	−1.5