
A dynamic micro-econometric simulation model for firms
Tables
A description of the sample for 1997, 1998, and 1999.
Year | Sampling frame | Initial sample size | Initial sample size correction* | Sample size after data Sample size with observations for t-2 |
---|---|---|---|---|
1997 | 2,56,171 | 33,887 | 29,363 | 27,370 |
1998 | 2,50,058 | 35,107 | 31,400 | 27,400 |
1999 | 2,43,131 | 36,566 | 36,238 | 35,457 |
Total | 7,49,360 | 1,05,560 | 97,001 | 90,227 |
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*
After the sampling, we check for inconsistencies and errors. If the firm does not fulfil the constructed criteria, it is regarded as an outlier and excluded from the sample. The sample is then re-weighted.
Simulation results using current rules, MSEK.
2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Assets | |||||
CA | 21,57,244 | 26,26,464 | 29,91,256 | 32,85,191 | 35,76,919 |
MA | 6,55,068 | 7,37,831 | 8,12,583 | 8,85,209 | 9,56,082 |
BU | 5,26,931 | 10,34,464 | 12,55,277 | 13,23,282 | 13,87,825 |
OFA | 36,97,248 | 33,25,529 | 34,41,718 | 36,46,573 | 36,58,999 |
Total | 70,33,491 | 77,24,288 | 85,00,834 | 91,40,255 | 95,79,825 |
Liabilities | |||||
CL | 14,81,818 | 26,98,440 | 34,49,106 | 38,42,111 | 42,31,449 |
LL | 26,07,697 | 27,29,837 | 28,33,233 | 39,17,740 | 30,00,933 |
ASD | 2,28,662 | 2,35,496 | 2,40,215 | 2,44,820 | 2,48,510 |
OUR | 10,524 | 10,760 | 10,939 | 10,987 | 11,138 |
SC | 3,38,181 | 3,61,574 | 3,84,821 | 4,06,226 | 4,29,033 |
RR | 6,14,792 | 8,69,063 | 11,24,540 | 13,77,906 | 16,31,679 |
URE | 15,58,227 | 5,92,813 | 2,01,132 | 50,403 | −2,93,084 |
PFt | 1,93,585 | 2,26,301 | 2,56,844 | 2,90,058 | 3,20,165 |
Total | 70,33,486 | 77,24,284 | 85,00,830 | 91,40,251 | 95,79,823 |
Income statement | |||||
OIBD | 2,80,257 | 4,05,649 | 4,16,275 | 4,09,780 | 4,17,883 |
EDEPma | 1,04,559 | 1,28,439 | 1,32,789 | 1,31,337 | 1,32,571 |
EDEPbu | 9,084 | 20,342 | 19,701 | 18,767 | 18,602 |
OIAD | 1,66,613 | 2,56,867 | 2,63,784 | 2,59,675 | 2,66,709 |
EBA | 1,84,907 | 2,50,162 | 2,69,569 | 2,74,013 | 2,81,933 |
EBT | 1,44,302 | 2,20,969 | 2,45,122 | 2,47,502 | 2,63,326 |
NI | 90,460 | 1,80,345 | 2,00,673 | 1,95,417 | 2,11,841 |
FTAX | 47,735 | 42,842 | 42,689 | 42,980 | 43,766 |
Olt | 4,10,084 | 4,88,375 | 5,46,493 | 6,06,410 | 6,52,192 |
NBI | 96,566 | 1,78,126 | 2,02,432 | 2,04,522 | 2,19,559 |
Selected flow variables and financial ratios | |||||
CR | 1.456 | 0.973 | 0.867 | 0.855 | 0.845 |
DR | 0.599 | 0.720 | 0.756 | 0.756 | 0.772 |
DER | 1.492 | 2.570 | 3.094 | 3.103 | 3.384 |
ECR | 0.401 | 0.280 | 0.244 | 0.244 | 0.228 |
FQ | −0.292 | −0.380 | −0.404 | −0.397 | −0.399 |
ICR | 1.493 | .634 | 1.682 | 1.684 | 1.693 |
DI | 0.089 | 0.071 | 0.062 | 0.058 | 0.055 |
ROE | 0.097 | 0.097 | 0.108 | 0.100 | 0.105 |
ROI | 0.080 | 0.083 | 0.078 | 0.074 | 0.072 |
EFFTAX | 0.258 | 0.171 | 0.158 | 0.157 | 0.155 |
RROI | 0.072 | 0.062 | 0.059 | 0.061 | 0.062 |
ER | 0.007 | 0.022 | 0.019 | 0.013 | 0.010 |
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Notes: See Appendix 1 for key to variable names
Forecasting accuracy for year 2000.
Variable name | Population weighted, Year 2000, MSEK | Matched pairs t-test*** (t) | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sample | Predicted | ||||
Mean (A) | Standard deviation (B) | Mean (C) | Standard deviation (D) | ||
EDEPMA | 0.447 | 15.150 | 0.458 | 10.439 | −0.280 |
SMA | 2.206 | 1097.177 | 0.092 | 50.235 | 0.920 |
IMA | 2.945 | 1096.308 | 0.834 | 10.150 | 0.920 |
EDEPBU | 0.069 | 1.821 | 0.039 | 1.251 | 6.233 |
IBU | 0.161 | 29.319 | 0.029 | 7.808 | 2.083 |
dofa | −2.600 | 2373.374 | 2.671 | 87.504 | −1.061 |
dca | 0.417 | 578.716 | 0.546 | 26.748 | −0.106 |
dll | −3.446 | 2104.863 | 0.283 | 23.357 | −0.847 |
dcl | 0.114 | 432.930 | −0.502 | 30.057 | 0.678 |
dsc | −0.035 | 48.833 | 0.090 | 5.457 | −1.217 |
drr | 0.456 | 113.333 | 1.157 | 12.723 | −2.937 |
OIBD | 1.398 | 81.459 | 1.227 | 17.734 | 0.980 |
FI | 1.880 | 153.795 | .722 | 103.292 | 0.407 |
FE | 1.150 | 55.330 | 1.641 | 112.435 | −1.875 |
TDEPMA | 0.538 | 18.430 | 0.522 | 6.936 | 0.408 |
ZPF | 0.095 | 8.401 | −0.001 | 0.444 | 5.485 |
Dour | −0.015 | 2.216 | 0.087 | 8.181 | −5.775 |
GC | 0.033 | 45.076 | 0.032 | 35.622 | 0.008 |
OA | 0.068 | 42.842 | 0.072 | 35.470 | −0.041 |
TL | 0.233 | 7.468 | 0.236 | 37.691 | −0.041 |
OTA | −0.678 | 147.590 | −0.221 | 19.762 | −1.465 |
TDEPBU | 0.086 | 3.688 | 0.080 | 1.308 | 0.668 |
PALLO | 0.224 | 32.200 | 0.274 | 2.580 | −0.733 |
ROT | 0.002 | 4.355 | 0.091 | 7.970 | −1.007 |
TAX | 0.212 | 6.360 | 0.230 | 2.168 | −1.270 |
FTAX | 0.210 | 6.000 | 0.209 | 8.168 | 0.060 |
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Notes: See Appendix 1 for key to variable names
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*
Calculated by dividing weighted sum of variable in the sample by population size
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**
Calculated using the population rather than sample size
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***
The match pair t-test of equal predicted and sample means is performed as follows: t = (A-B)/sqrt(C**2/N)+D**2/N) where N = 228344 is the population size.
The actual and predicted distribution.
The actual distribution | The predicted distribution | |
---|---|---|
Mean | 2,02,425.364 | 2,20,221.588 |
Standard Deviation | 1,60,57,919.6 | 2,29,66,100 |
Skewness | 51.3292645 | −155.64327 |
Curtosis | 3,517.11279 | 25,481.8173 |
100% Max | 1,38,01,03,929 | 39,02,61,309 |
90% | 1,76,232 | 4,37,049 |
75% Q3 | 43,411 | 2,71,427 |
50% Median | 4076 | 1,82,961 |
25% Q1 | 0 | 0 |
10% | 0 | 0 |
0% Min | 0 | −3702063348 |
Simulation results for a proposed tax reduction by 3 per cent, MSEK.
2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Final taxes paid | |||||
FTAX | 47,735 | 42,842 | 37,651 | 37,888 | 38,581 |
Financial ratio analysis | |||||
CR | 1.456 | 0.973 | 0.867 | 0.855 | 0.845 |
DR | 0.599 | 0.720 | 0.754 | 0.754 | 0.770 |
DER | 1.492 | 20570 | 3.064 | 3.073 | 3.350 |
ECR | 0.401 | 0.280 | 0.246 | 0.246 | 0.230 |
FQ | −0.292 | −0.380 | −0.402 | −0.395 | −0.397 |
ICR | 1.493 | 1.634 | 1.682 | 1.684 | 1.693 |
DI | 0.089 | 0.071 | 0.062 | 0.058 | 0.055 |
ROE | 0.097 | 0.097 | 0.108 | 0.099 | 0.105 |
ROI | 0.080 | 0.083 | 0.078 | 0.074 | 0.072 |
EFFTAX | 0.258 | 0.171 | 0.140 | 0.138 | 0.137 |
RROI | 0.072 | 0.062 | 0.058 | 0.059 | 0.060 |
ER | 0.007 | 0.022 | 0.020 | 0.015 | 0.012 |
The cost of the proposed tax rule | |||||
Periodic net cost (FTAXP – FTAXC) | 0 | 0 | −5038 | −5092 | 5185 |
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Notes: See Appendix 1 for key to variable names
Simulated results from an alternative macroeconomic development, MSEK.
2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Final taxes paid | |||||
FTAX | 48,642 | 41,072 | 39,760 | 39,984 | 40,807 |
Financial ratio analysis | |||||
CR | 1.339 | 1.064 | 0.998 | 0.972 | 0.933 |
DR | 0.627 | 0.700 | 0.724 | 0.734 | 0.762 |
DER | 1.682 | 2.337 | 2.620 | 2.574 | 3.196 |
ECR | 0.373 | 0.300 | 0.276 | 0.266 | 0.238 |
FQ | −0.310 | −0.357 | −0.366 | −0.365 | −0.376 |
ICR | 1.511 | 1.590 | 1.642 | 1.652 | 1.666 |
DI | 0.086 | 0.074 | 0.066 | 0.062 | 0.058 |
ROE | 0.082 | 0.082 | 0.090 | 0.089 | 0.101 |
ROI | 0.081 | 0.082 | 0.078 | 0.075 | 0.073 |
EFFTAX | 0.253 | 0.178 | 0.160 | 0.156 | 0.153 |
RROI | 0.072 | 0.063 | 0.062 | 0.062 | 0.061 |
ER | 0.009 | 0.109 | 0.016 | 0.013 | 0.012 |
The cost of the proposed tax rule | |||||
Periodic net cost (FTAXP – FTAXC) | 907 | −1770 | −2929 | −2996 | −2959 |
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Notes: See Appendix 1 for key to variable names
Macroeconomic forecast in the government’s budget bill and spring fiscal policy bill (in parenthesis), SEK billion, percentage change, and percent.
1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP | 2010 (2010) | 2083 (2098) | 2118 (2115) | 2169 (2151) | 2225 (2207) | 2277 (2262) |
dGDP | 79 (79) | 72 (88) | 35 (16) | 51 (37) | 56 (55) | 51 (56) |
dlGDP | 3.60 (4.38) | 1.70 (0.77) | 2.40 (1.73) | 2.60 (2.58) | 2.30 (2.52) | |
r10* | 4.83 (4.83) | 5.40 (5.37) | 5.20 (5.10) | 5.20 (5.00) | 5.20 (5.11) | 5.20 (5.20) |
Inflation | 1.20 (1.20) | 1.40 (1.30) | 2.70 (2.60) | 1.80 (2.10) | 2.00 (2.20) | 2.00 (2.00) |
Real r10 | 3.59 (3.59) | 3.94 (4.02) | 2.43 (2.44) | 3.34 (2.84) | 3.14 (2.85) | 3.14 (3.14) |
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Notes: See Appendix 1 for key to variable names;
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*
r10 is the nominal interest rate on a government bond with a maturity of 10 years.
Balance sheet and income statement variables.
Symbol | Variable name |
---|---|
K | Assets |
CA | Current Assets |
FA | Fixed Assets |
MA | Machinery and Equipment |
BU | Buildings |
OFA | Other Fixed Assets |
CMA | The Taxable Residual Value of Machinery and Equipment |
WC | Working Capital |
B | Liabilities |
CL | Current Liabilities |
LL | Long-Term Liabilities |
UR | Untaxed Reserves |
ASD | Accumulated Supplementary Depreciation |
OUR | Other Untaxed Reserves |
PFtt-i | Remaining Periodical Reserves From t-i in period t |
EC | Equity Capital |
SC | Share Capital |
RR | Restricted Reserves |
URE | Unrestricted Equity |
OIBD | Operating Income Before Depreciation |
EDEPMA | Economic Depreciation of Machinery and Equipment |
EDEPBU | Economic Depreciation of Buildings |
OIAD | Operating Income after Economic Depreciation |
FI | Financial Income |
FI | Financial Income |
FE | Financial Expenses |
EBA | Earnings Before Allocations |
TDEPMA | Tax Depreciation of Machinery and Equipment |
OA | Other Allocations |
zpf | Change in Periodical Reserves |
pallo | Allocations to Periodical Reserves |
EBT | Earnings Before Taxes |
TL | Tax Liability |
NI | Net Income |
TA | Tax Adjustments |
OTA | Other Tax Adjustments |
TDEPBU | Tax Depreciation of Buildings |
OLtt-1 | Losses From Previous Years |
TAX | Calculated Tax Payments |
ROT | Reduction Of Taxes |
FTAX | Final Tax Payments |
OLt | The Stock of Old Losses |
NBI | Net Business Income |
Flow variables, financial ratios, legal constraints, and parameters.
Symbol | Variable name |
---|---|
IMA | Net Investment in Machinery and Equipment |
IBu | Net Investment in Buildings |
dca | Net Change in Current Assets |
dofa | Net Change in Other Fixed Assets |
dcl | Net Change in Current Liabilities |
dll | Net Change in Long-Term Liabilities |
dour | Net Change in Other Untaxed Reserves |
dsc | Net Change in Share Capital |
drr | Net Changes in Restricted Reserves |
dURE | Net Change in Unrestricted Equity (Retained Earnings) |
cashfl | Cash flow |
SMA | Sales of Machinery and Equipment |
IG | Investment Grant |
DIV | Dividends Paid to Shareholders |
GC | Net Group Contribution |
CR | The Current Ratio |
DR | The Debt Ratio |
DER | The Debt/Equity Ratio |
ECR | The Equity Capital Ratio |
FQ | The Financial Q |
ICR | The Interest Coverage Ratio |
ROA | Return on Total Assets |
ROE | Return on Equity |
DI | Average Debt Interest |
ROI | Return on Investment |
RROI | Required Return on Investment |
τeff | Effective Corporate Tax Rate |
ER | Excess Return on Investment |
TDDBMA | Tax Depreciation (Declining Balance Method) |
TDSLMA | Tax Depreciation (Straight-Line Method) |
TDRVMA | Tax Depreciation (Rest Value Method) |
MTDM | Maximum Amount of Tax Depreciation |
dmtdm | Difference Between MTDM and TDEPMA |
ddmtdm | Change in the Utilization of Depreciation Allowances |
MPA | Maximum Amount of Allocations to Periodical Reserves |
dmpa | Difference Between MPA and pallo |
ddmpa | Change in the Utilization of Periodical Reserves |
dcashfl | The Change in Cash Flow |
mcash | Maximum Dividends |
dmcash | The Difference Between mcash and cashfl |
ddmcash | Change of Dividend Policy Closer to the Legal Constraint |
δDB | The Depreciation Rate (Declining Balance Method) |
δS | The Depreciation Rate (Straight-Line Method) |
δRV | The Depreciation Rate (Rest Value Method) |
M | Number of Months in the Firms’ Income Year |
τ | The Statutory Corporate Tax Rate |