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Constructing a basefile for simulating Kunming’s medical insurance scheme of urban employees

  1. Xiong Linping  Is a corresponding author
  2. Tang Weidong
  3. Liu Hong
  1. Second Military Medical University, China
  2. University of Canberra, Australia
  3. Bureau of Labour and Social Security of Kunming, China
  4. Office of Medical Insurance at No. 43 General Hospital, China
Research article
Volume 4(3) Winter 2011
Cite this article as: X. Linping, T. Weidong, L. Hong; 2011; Constructing a basefile for simulating Kunming’s medical insurance scheme of urban employees; International Journal of Microsimulation; 4(3); 3-16. doi: 10.34196/ijm.00056
3 figures and 15 tables

Figures

Figure 1
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Datasets used in the research and their functions.
Figure 2
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The income trends of 2001–2005 by age group.
Figure 3
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Exponential curve fitting for estimating the number of officials.

Tables

Table 1
Administrative datasets used in modelling medical insurance scheme.
Datasets Description
Basic individual information Individuals’ basic demographic information under the urban medical insurance scheme over the period of 2001–2005
Individual status alteration Individual status alteration records of medical insurance scheme participants over the period of 2001–2005
Medical insurance premium Amount of contributions by individuals and their employers to the basic medical insurance scheme over the period of 2001–2005
Hospitalization treatment expenses Medical expenditure records of insured participants in both hospitalization and special disease services for the year 2002–2005
Clinic services expenses Medical expenditure records of clinic services and medications in pharmacies of insured participants over the period of 2001–2005
Table 2
Death of medical insurance participants in 2001–2005.
Year Number of participants Number of deaths Accumulative frequency Proportion of death (%)
2001 3,77,676 291 291 0.0771
2002 5,32,706 2,373 2,664 0.4455
2003 6,61,038 3,573 6,237 0.5405
2004 7,56,996 3,823 10,060 0.5050
2005 7,93,987 4,064 14,124 0.5118
Table 3
Age group specific death number and death rate (0.1%) of male (2001–2005).
Year ≤ 34 35–49 50–64 ≥ 65 Total number ≤ 34 35–49 50–64 ≥ 65 Total rate
2001 4 16 47 127 194 0.0804 0.2543 0.8673 4.3571 0.9899
2002 35 99 374 1,095 1,603 0.5003 1.0766 4.4636 23.1903 5.4724
2003 43 152 525 1,653 2,373 0.5057 1.3631 5.0157 27.3214 6.5605
2004 66 178 612 1,808 2,664 0.6881 1.4875 5.2957 27.7599 6.7226
2005 60 195 761 1,725 2,741 0.5678 1.5188 6.1504 23.6195 6.3623
Average death rate over 2002–2005 (0.1%) 0.5655 1.3615 5.2314 25.4728 6.2795
Table 4
Age group death number and death rate (0.1%) of female (2001–2005).
Year ≤ 34 35–49 50–64 ≥ 65 Total number ≤ 34 35–49 50–64 ≥ 65 Total rate
2001 2 11 23 61 97 0.0431 0.2008 0.4777 3.0511 0.5728
2002 16 57 160 537 770 0.2545 0.6833 2.2372 17.0563 3.0886
2003 29 77 248 846 1,200 0.3892 0.7402 2.8507 20.7135 3.9168
2004 21 82 256 800 1,159 0.2527 0.7132 2.7311 17.7054 3.4392
2005 21 83 335 884 1,323 0.2312 0.6878 3.3030 17.6004 3.6430
Average death rate over 2002–2005 (0.1%) 0.2819 0.7061 2.7805 18.2689 3.5219
Table 5
Monthly premium information by age group in 2005.
Age group Number of participants Number of participants with payment Payment rate (%) Average monthly income (Yuan) Minimum income (Yuan) Maximum income (Yuan)
Emp ≤ 34 years 1,96,410 1,89,614 96.54 1,176 450 3,342
Emp 35–49 2,43,227 2,40,111 98.72 1,249 468 3,342
Emp ≥ 50 years 91,893 91,424 99.49 1,179 336 3,342
Ret ≤ 64 years 139,362 137,544 98.70 763 111 3,320
Ret ≥ 65 years 1,23,095 1,18,424 96.21 760 108 3108
Total 7,93,987 7,77,117 97.88

  1. Note: Emp – Employee, Ret – Retiree

Table 6
Distribution of number of monthly payments to the scheme in 2005.
Number of months Participant frequency Percentage Accumulative frequency Accumulative percentage
1 5,576 0.70 5576 0.70
2 4,545 0.57 10,121 1.27
3 6,211 0.78 16,332 2.06
4 5,309 0.67 21,641 2.73
5 4,417 0.56 26,058 3.28
6 4,856 0.61 30,914 3.89
7 4,816 0.61 35,730 4.50
8 9,043 1.14 44,773 5.64
9 4,597 0.58 49,370 6.22
10 5,506 0.69 54,876 6.91
11 12,472 1.57 67,348 8.48
12 709,769 89.39 777,117 97.88
99 16,870 2.12 793,987 100.00

  1. Note: ’99 in the first column indicates missing records.

Table 7
The monthly income by age group in 2005 after imputation.
Age group Actual population Population after imputation Average income (Yuan) Minimum income (Yuan) Maximum income (Yuan)
Emp ≤34 years 1,96,410 1,96,410 1,175.67 450.00 3,342.25
Emp 35–49 years 2,43,227 243,227 1,249.58 468.25 3,342.25
Emp ≥50 years 91,893 91,893 1,179.26 336.00 3,342.25
Ret ≤64 years 1,39,362 1,39,362 763.59 111.00 3,319.71
Ret ≥65 years 1,23,095 1,23,095 760.58 108.00 3,107.50
Total 7,93,987 7,93,987

  1. Note: Emp – Employee, Ret – Retiree.

Table 8
The accumulative amount in personal savings accounts at the end of 2005 (Yuan).
Age group Population Average accumulate Standard deviation Minimum Maximum
Emp ≤ 34 years 1,96,410 1,116 754 69 5,014
Emp 35–49 years 2,43,227 1,698 900 69 5,758
Emp≥50 years 91,893 1,989 1,033 39 6,484
Ret ≤64 years 1,39,362 1,402 766 28 6,382
Ret ≥65 years 1,23,095 1,385 714 35 7,257
Total 7,93,987

  1. Notes: Emp – Employee,Ret – Retiree.

Table 9
Estimation of number of officials using exponential curve fitting.
Year Actual number of officials Estimated number of officials Relative errors* Estimated number of participants % of officials to participants
2002 1,02,310 1,02,873 0.5503 577,066 17.8
2003 123,769 123,670 −0.0800 683,646 18.1
2004 1,29,259 1,29,285 0.0201 747,710 17.3
2005 1,32,667 7,93,663 16.7
2006 1,35,096 8,29,518 16.3
2007 1,36,991 8,58,925 15.9
2008 1,38,546 8,83,852 15.7
2009 1,39,865 9,05,486 15.4
2010 1,41,009 9,24,596 15.3
Fitted R2 0.9999

  1. Note: *Relative Errors = (Estimated – Actual)/Actual × 100.

Table 10
The distribution of personal status in 2005.
Variable Category Frequency Percentage Accumulative frequency
Personal status Cadre 1,05,604 14.33 1,13,778
Worker 76,308 9.90 1,92,403
Farmer labourer 137 0.02 1,92,601
Missing 6,01,386 75.74 7,93,987
Table 11
The impact factors of discriminant analysis in identifying officials.
Factors Category Frequency percentage Accumulative frequency
Gender Male 4,16,632 54.59 4,16,632
Female 3,46,583 45.41 7,63,215
Nationality Han 6,98,678 91.54 6,98,678
Minorities 64,537 8.46 7,63,215
Employment status Employee 5,08,400 66.61 5,08,400
Retiree 2,54,815 33.39 7,63,215
Education degree Under primary 1,50,333 19.70 1,50,333
Junior high school 1,81,643 23.80 3,31,976
Senior high school 2,45,124 32.12 5,77,100
University 1,86,115 24.39 7,63,215
Marital status Single 1,75,146 22.95 1,75,146
Married 5,88,069 77.05 7,63,215
Age group Employee ≤34 years 1,87,106 24.52 1,87,106
Employee 35–49 years 2,32,154 30.42 4,19,260
Employee ≥50 years 89,140 11.68 5,08,400
Retiree ≤64 years 1,35,959 17.81 6,44,359
Retiree ≥65 years 1,18,856 15.57 7,63,215
Age Continuous variable 7,63,215
Monthly income Continuous variable 7,63,215
Table 12
Constants and Coefficients of discriminant functions.
Classify Constant Gender Nationality Employment Education Marry Age
Official −54.3071 6.16945 14.2724 25.45331 6.1558 5.37318 1.39241
Worker −48.8466 6.20641 14.15723 25.34738 4.69624 5.83103 1.36205
Partial R-Square 0.0001 0.0002 0.0001 0.2277 0.0063 0.0335
Table 13
Number of Observations and Percent Classified into Cadre or Worker.
Original classification Classified into Official Classified into Worker Total
Official No 75,451 30,153 1,05,604
% 71.38 28.62 100.00
Worker No 19,206 57,102 76,308
% 25.08 74.92 100.00
Total No 94,657 87,255 1,81,912
% 51.96 48.04 100.00
Table 14
Different kind of costs in average by age group at the end of 2005 (Yuan).
Age group Average Payment for each insured individual by Amount of Accumulate in PSA Balance of PSA
Self Totally Personal savings account Social pool fund Serious illness fund Government official fund
Emp ≤34 years 22 1,050 283 19 3 1,607 557
Emp 35–49 years 49 1,640 724 47 9 2,226 586
Emp ≥50 years 81 1,977 1,361 126 12 2,477 501
Ret ≤64 years 130 1,961 2,687 187 9 1,639 −322
Ret ≥65 years 223 2,578 5,025 313 23 1,614 −964

  1. Note: Emp – Employee, Ret – Retiree, PSA – Personal savings account

Table 15
The monthly income adjustment parameters.
Sex Group Income Rate1 Rate2 Rate3 Rate4 Rate5 Rate6 Rate7 Rate8
1 1 1 0.12266 0.14138 0.21787 0.47927 1.04961 1.73501 3.31952 4.66841
1 1 2 0.08690 0.11716 0.20500 0.42003 0.87130 1.47540 3.00536 4.31932
1 1 3 −0.00323 0.06362 0.13608 0.39481 0.81915 1.47868 2.85378 4.02337
1 1 4 −0.18203 −0.03832 0.03729 0.22041 0.49273 0.95651 2.01142 3.10143
1 1 5 −0.36013 −0.16767 0.01439 0.11296 0.30066 0.65700 1.38539 2.07747
1 1 6 −0.48373 −0.28098 −0.04153 0.08365 0.28106 0.52561 1.04572 1.53034
1 1 7 −0.61252 −0.42016 −0.15020 0.06411 0.25603 0.45087 0.66346 0.89255
1 1 8 −0.69212 −0.49179 −0.18298 0.05357 0.18571 0.27947 0.36918 0.47154
1 1 9 −0.70124 −0.45743 −0.20916 0.00736 0.02508 0.02691 0.00249 0.15586
1 2 1 0.09254 0.14038 0.21973 0.50458 1.17240 1.93866 3.50962 4.69382
1 2 2 0.04557 0.08680 0.15186 0.43602 0.99369 1.67413 2.98944 4.24908
: : : : : : : : : :
2 5 8 −0.60547 −0.41587 −0.00792 0.03741 0.06543 0.11838 0.17226 0.27425
2 5 9 −0.68014 −0.47035 −0.16917 0.02955 0.05355 0.10269 0.13050 0.18214
Relative frequency 0–0.10 0.10–0.25 0.25–0.50 0.50–0.75 0.75–0.90 0.90–0.95 0.95–0.99 0.99–1.00

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