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Improving work incentives in Serbia: Evaluation of a tax policy reform using SRMOD

  1. Saša Ranđelović  Is a corresponding author
  2. Jelena Žarković Rakić  Is a corresponding author
  1. Foundation for the Advancement of Economics, Serbia
Research article
Cite this article as: S. Ranđelović, J. Žarković Rakić; 2013; Improving work incentives in Serbia: Evaluation of a tax policy reform using SRMOD; International Journal of Microsimulation; 6(1); 157-176. doi: 10.34196/ijm.00080
2 figures and 7 tables

Figures

Progressivity of the labour taxation system.

Note: Scatter plot of tax wedge for a single at 33% of average wage (percent) versus progressivity of tax wedge (percentage point change) for selected European countries (2008).

Source: World Bank (2010, p. 12).

Mean EMTRs and EATRs by deciles, before and after the reform.

Source: Own calculations using SRMOD.

Tables

Table 1
Inactivity and unemployment rates by education and gender (%).
Level of education Inactivity rate Unemployment rate
Men Women Men Women
Primary 32.4 64.4 21.5 25.1
Secondary 24.5 40.9 22.4 26.5
Tertiary 18.0 22.4 15.5 14.2
  1. Source: Labour Force Survey, 2011, age: 25–64.

Table 2
Proportion of unemployed and inactive without work experience by education and gender (%).
Level of education Unemployed Inactive
Men Women Men Women
Primary 35.1 42.3 14.9 55.0
Secondary 18.8 26.0 12.3 22.0
Tertiary 30.0 38.2 6.3 14.7
  1. Source: Labour Force Survey, 2011, age: 25–64.

Table 3
Comparison of tax wedge in Western Balkan countries and EU.
Earnings as a % of the average wage 50% 67% 100% 167%
Country year
Serbia 2006 42.3% 42.3% 42.3% 42.3%
2007 37.6% 38.4% 39.2% 39.7%
Albania 2006 34.1% 27.9% 28.9% 29.8%
Montenegro 2007 36.3% 38.6% 40.9% 42.8%
BiH Federation 2006 30.6% 29.3% 32.3% 35.3%
R. of Srpska 2007 31.7% 31.6% 32.5% 33.2%
Macedonia 2007 41.2% 37.8% 38.6% 39.2%
EU-27 2008 37% 40.6% 45.1%
EU-15 2008 38.1% 42.4% 47.6%
NMS-12 2008 35.6% 38.5% 42%
  1. Note: Tax wedge for a single person as a percent of total labour costs.

  2. Source: Data for Macedonia, Serbia, Albania, Montenegro and Bosnia (Leibfritz, 2008).

    Other data: from Eurostat

Table 4
SRMOD macro-validation results: income tax and social contributions.
Administrative records SRMOD Ratio (SRMOD/Administrative data)
Average wage (in RSD) 37,668 34,659 0.92
Personal income tax 8,284,791 6,649,044 0.80
• salary/wage tax 6,966,756 5,693,117 0.82
Social security contributions - on full time employment income and unemployment
benefits 20,901,550 19,944,627 0.95
  1. Source: Own calculations using SRMOD.

Table 5
SRMOD macro-validation results: benefits.
SRMOD Administrative records Ratio (SRMOD/Administrative records)
Recipients (HHs)
Monetary social assistance 53,444 50,848 1.05
Child allowance 229,221 199,323 1.15
Expenditures (in RSD)
Monetary social assistance 274,347,719 253,897,376 1.08
Child allowance 667,811,936 580,706,031 1.15
  1. Source: Own calculations using SRMOD.

Table 6
Gini coefficient, before and after tax and benefit policy in Serbia.
Baseline Reform scenario
Gini coefficient - original income 44.75 44.75
Gini coefficient - disposable income 38.63 38.59
  1. Source: own calculation using SMROD.

Table 7
Number of gainers from the reform per deciles.
% of individuals whose disposable income, after the reform, is increased by
Deciles More than 2% More than 5%
1 3.1 1.3
2 5.8 2.9
3 4.0 2.7
4 3.3 2.2
5 2.5 1.4
6 1.5 0.7
7 1.3 0.5
8 1.1 0.7
9 1.3 0.8
10 0.2 0.2
  1. Source: own calculation using SMROD.

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