Cite as: P. Sabourin, A. Bélanger; 2015; Microsimulation of language dynamics in a multilingual region with high immigration; International Journal of Microsimulation; 8(1); 67–96. doi: 10.34196/ijm.00112
Abstract
In high immigration countries, linguistic integration to the host society may constitute an important economic, social and political issue. This is likely to be even more salient in countries where two or more languages are already competing. Canada is an officially bilingual country characterized by a low fertility and a high immigration regime. This paper describes a dynamic microsimulation model projecting the population of Canada and its regions by mother tongue and language used at home. Emphasis is put on the language module of the model which allows for changes in language characteristics, namely intergenerational changes in mother tongue and intragenerational changes in home language. Mother tongue and home language are then projected for different scenarios in order to investigate the impact of changes in levels and linguistic composition of immigration. Different hypothesis with regard to language preferences of immigrants (which may be influenced through language management legislation) are also taken into account. Results are presented for two regions, the province of Quebec and the rest of Canada at the horizon 2051 as well as for the stable population. Projection results show that the population of non-official mother tongues will increase rapidly to reach 31% in 2051. More interestingly, the results show that the increase in home language is less important due to language shifts. Since these are more favourable to English than French, the ratio of English speakers to French speakers is increasing both in Québec and in the rest of Canada, thus shifting the equilibrium between official languages
This article contains 4 figures and 5 tables.
Figures
Figure 1. Percentage of individuals still using their mother tongue as the language most often spoken at home (Persistency) with respect to (A) age for Canadian-born Allophones, and (B) length of stay in Canada and age at immigration for immigrant Allophones (1991, 1996, 2001 and 2006 censuses).Figure 2. Linguistic composition of Canada as a whole (left panel), Québec (middle panel) and the rest of Canada (right panel), mother tongue (MT) and language spoken most often at home (HL). Light areas show the portion of a mother tongue group having performed a language shift. Census data for 1991 to 2006. Projection results for 2007–2051 (Base scenario).Figure 3. Variations in the linguistic composition of Québec (top panel) and of the rest of Canada (bottom panel) according to language spoken most often at home and projection scenario. English is shown in red, French in blue and other languages in green. Bars show variation from 2006 to 2051, stars show variation from 2006 to stable population. Census data for 2006. Projection results for 2051 and stable population.Figure 4. Components of growth for English speakers (first row), French speakers (second row) and third language speakers (third row), Québec (first column) and the rest of Canada (second column). Components of growth include rates of natural increase (mortality rate minus birth rate), international migration (immigration rate minus emigration rate), internal migration (inmigration rate minus outmigration rate) and net language shifts. Projection results from 2007 to 2051, Base scenario.
Tables
Table 1. Example of a transition matrix for intergenerational mother tongue transmission, immigrant mothers speaking French most often at home, Québec (2006 census). Category “Others” includes Anglotropes and Francotropes.
Mother’s mother tongue
English
French
Others
Child’s mother tongue
English
16%
2%
2%
French
84%
98%
74%
Others
0%
0%
24%
100%
100%
100%
Table 2. Example of a transition matrix for intragenerational language shifts, individuals aged less than forty and born in Canada, Québec (2006 census).
Mother tongue
English
French
Others – A
Others – F
Home language
English
–
81%
84%
20%
French
89%
–
16%
80%
Others
11%
19%
–
–
100%
100%
100%
100%
Table 3. Geographical distribution of immigrants arrived in Canada between 2000 and 2006 (2006 census).
Region
% of total immigration
Atlantic provinces
1.2%
Ontario
53.7%
Prairies
12.7%
British Columbia
15.8%
Québec
16.7%
Montréal Island
69.9%
Rest of Québec
30.1%
Table 4. Distribution of immigrants arrived between 2000 and 2006 according to mother tongue (2006 census).
Canada outside Québec
Québec
English
16.4%
4.8%
French
1.0%
19.8%
Others-English
82.6%
24.3%
Others-French
N/A
51.1%
Table 5. Summary of all scenarios.
Scenario
Immigration volume
Linguistic composition of immigration
Language shift
Base
250.000
Recent
Recent
Imm+
300.000
Recent
Recent
Imm-
200.000
Recent
Recent
ImmFr
250.000
50% less Anglophones and Others- Eng in Qc Recent trend in the rest of Canada
Recent
ImmEn
250.000
50% more Anglophones and Others- Eng in Qc Recent trend in the rest of Canada
Recent
ShiftFr
250.000
Recent
All Allophones in Qc shift like Others-Fr Recent trends in the rest of Canada
ShiftEn
250.000
Recent
All Allophones in Qc shift like Others-Eng Recent trends in the rest of Canada
CanadaFr
250.000
Recent trend in Qc Number of Francophone immigrants doubled in the rest ofCanada
