Modelling the Early life-course (MELC): A Microsimulation Model of Child Development in New Zealand
- Centre of Methods and Policy Application in the Social Sciences, The University of Auckland, New Zealand
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology Auckland University of Technology, New Zealand
Cite this article
as: B. J Milne, R. Lay-Yee, J. M McLay, J. Pearson, M. von Randow, P. Davis; 2015; Modelling the Early life-course (MELC): A Microsimulation Model of Child Development in New Zealand; International Journal of Microsimulation; 8(2); 28-60.
doi: 10.34196/ijm.00116
- Article
- Figures and data
- Jump to
Figures
Figure 1
Conceptual model of the early life course.
Figure 2
Validation of the MELC micro-simulation model for (a) GP visits, (b) Hospital outpatient attendances, (c) Hospital admissions, and (d) Reading. Outcomes are validated against reports from the 2012–13 New Zealand Health Survey (NZHS) (a & b), admissions to all New Zealand hospitals in 2006, as recorded in the National Minimum Dataset (NMDS) (c), and New Zealand norms for the Burt Reading test reported in 1976 (d). Error bars show 95% confidence intervals (no error bars are shown for NMDS hospital admissions as these are based on the whole population).
Figure 3
Validation of the MELC micro-simulation model for (a) GP visits, (b) Hospital outpatient attendances, (c) Hospital admissions, and (d) Reading, after adjusting the models for GP visits and Hospital outpatient attendances data. Outcomes are validated against reports from the 2012–13 New Zealand Health Survey (NZHS) (a & b), admissions to all New Zealand hospitals in 2006, as recorded in the National Minimum Dataset (NMDS) (c), and New Zealand norms for the Burt Reading test reported in 1976 (d). Error bars show 95% confidence intervals (no error bars are shown for NMDS hospital admissions as these are based on the whole population).
Figure 4
Impact of scenario to improve early literacy, as measured by the burt reading score.
Figure 5
Impact of reducing single parenting on conduct problems.
Figure 6
Impact on conduct problems of bringing structural, perinatal and parenting factors into line with the general population (equalization scenario) for (a) Māori, (b) Pacific, and (c) low socioeconomic status children.
Figure 7
Impact on reading (Burt score) of bringing structural, perinatal and parenting factors into line with the general population (equalization scenario) for (a) Māori, (b) Pacific, and (c) low socioeconomic status children.
Figure 8
Impact on hospital admissions of bringing structural, perinatal and parenting factors into line with the general population (equalization scenario) for (a) Māori, (b) Pacific, and (c) low socioeconomic status children.
Tables
Table 1
Weighting based on cultural affiliation.
| Quintiles | THNR Māori (%) | CHDS/DMHDS Māori (%) | CHDS/DMHDS Māori | Final cultural affiliation weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 – low | 20 | 57.9 | 20/57.9 = 0.35 | 0.34 |
| 2 | 20 | 19.1 | 20/19.1 = 1.05 | 1.08 |
| 3 | 20 | 7.9 | 20/7.9 = 2.53 | 2.65 |
| 4 | 20 | 10.0 | 20/10.0 = 2.00 | 2.03 |
| 5 – high | 20 | 5.1 | 20/5.1 = 3.92 | 4.15 |
Table 2
Final weights used in analysis.
| Ethnicity | Ethnicity weight | Māori cultural affiliation quintile | Māori cultural affiliation weight | Final weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| European | 1.04 | 1 | 1.04 | |
| Māori | 2.96 | 1 | 2.96a | |
| 2.96 | Quintile 1 | 0.34 | 1.02 | |
| 2.96 | Quintile 2 | 1.08 | 3.20 | |
| 2.96 | Quintile 3 | 2.65 | 7.84 | |
| 2.96 | Quintile 4 | 2.03 | 6.02 | |
| 2.96 | Quintile 5 | 4.15 | 12.28 | |
| Pacific | 0.26 | 1 | 0.26 | |
| Asian | 31.99 | 1 | 31.99 |
-
a
This weight was applied to Māori in the PIFS sample, for whom Māori cultural affiliation could not be assessed
Table A1
Equations for modifiable factors and outcomes in the MELC micro-simulation model.
| Modifiable factor of outcome | Type of model | Subset of data on which model was estimated | Predictors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Change in single-parent status | Logistic | Children aged 2 to 5 and in a single-parent family in previous year | age childethn fage single0 ga age:fage age:single0 ga:childethn |
| Children aged 2 to 5 and in a two-parent family in previous year | childethn mage mage2 sesbth single0 bw pregsmk sesbth:childethn single0:childethn bw:childethn | ||
| Children aged 6 to 13 and in a single-parent family in previous year | childethn mage feduc ga twin bthorder bthorder2 interact punish punish2 mage:childethn | ||
| Children aged 6 to 13 and in a two-parent family in previous year | childethn mage fage fage2 feduc sesbth single0 pregsmk interact interact2 punish punish2 fage:childethn childethn:feduc single0:childethn pregsmk:childethn interact:childethn punish:childethn | ||
| Change in number of children in household | Standard OLS linear | Children aged 2 to 5 | age typeofchange childethn mage meduc sesbth single0 pregsmk twin bthorder age:childethn age:pregsmk age:twin meduc:childethn sesbth_childethn twin:childethn bthorder:childethn |
| Children aged 6 to 13 | age age2 typeofchange mage mage2 feduc interact interact2 age:mage age:feduc | ||
| Change in parents | Logistic | Children aged 2 to 5 years and no change of residence in previous year | age gender childethn mage sesbth pregsmk single_previous kids_previous mhrswrk_previous welfare_previous typeofchange age:mage age:sesbth age:kids_previous age:mhrswrk_previous |
| Children aged 2 to 5 years and change of residence in previous year | age age2 childethn mage mage2 feduc sesbth single0 bw pregsmk bthorder bthorde2 householdsize_previous welfare_Previous age:mage age:sesbth age:welfare_previous childethn:feduc bw:childethn | ||
| Children aged 6 to 13 years and no | gender childethn mage fage meduc feduc ga ga2 single_previous mhrswrk_previous | ||
| change of residence in previous year | typeofchange fage:childethn childethn:feduc ga:childethn childethn:typeofchange | ||
| Children aged 6 to 13 years and change of residence in previous year | childethn mage feduc bw ga pregalc kids_previous householdsize_previous welfare_previous typeofchange npresch welfare_previous:childethn | ||
| Number of changes in residence for children | Negative binomial | Children aged 2 to 5 | age age2 gender childethn mage mage2 single0 chres_previous pregalc fhrswrk_previous fhrswrk_previous2 welfare_previous age:gender age:chres_previous gender:childethn chres_previous:childethn |
| Children aged 6 to 13 | age childethn fage feduc chres_previous bthorder mhrswrk_previous mhrswrk_previous2 npresch interact age:childethn age:chres_previous age:npresch mhrswrk_previous:childethn | ||
| Welfare dependence | Logistic | Children aged 2 to 5 and family not receiving welfare in previous year | gender childethn meduc sesbth single0 pregalc single kids mhrswrk fhrswrk fhrswrk2 gender:childethn sesbth:childethn mhrswrk:childethn |
| Children aged 2 to 5 and family receiving welfare in the previous year | age age2 gender fage fage2 feduc sesbth ga ga2 breast pregsmk single householdsize mhrswrk mhrswrk2 fhrswrk age:fage age:ga age:single age:householdsize age:fhrswrk | ||
| Children aged 6 to13 and family not receiving welfare in previous year | age meduc sesbth ga breast pregsmk single kids householdsize mhrswrk fhrswrk fhrswrk2 age:single age:householdsize age:fhrswrk | ||
| Children aged 6 to13 and family receiving welfare in previous year | gender childethn meduc feduc sesbth bw ga ga2 pregsmk pregalc pregalc2 single mhrswrk fhrswrk fhrswrk2 interact sesbth:childethn bw:childethn ga:childethn pregsmk:childethn single:childethn interact:childethn | ||
| Mother working | Logistic | Children aged 2 to 5, mother not working in previous year, and is birth-mother | age age2 gender childethn mage meduc feduc single0 ga ga2 breast breast2 pregsmk pregsmk2 pregalc twin bthorder age:gender age:mage age:feduc age:pregalc mage:childethn single0:childethn breast:childethn |
| Children aged 2 to 5, mother not working in previous year, and is not birth-mother, and is not same mother as in previous year | gender | ||
| Children aged 2 to 5, mother not working in previous year, and is not birth-mother, but is same mother as in previous year | ga | ||
| Children aged 2 to 5, mother working in previous year | age gender mage fage fage2 meduc feduc pregsmk pregalc twin age:gender age:mage age:pregalc | ||
| Children aged 6 to 13, mother not working in previous year, and is birth-mother | childethn mage fage meduc sesbth single0 breast breast2 pregsmk pregsmk2 bthorder bthorder2 npresch interact interact2 meduc:childethn sesbth:childethn | ||
| Children aged 6 to 13, mother not working in previous year, and is not birth-mother, and is not same mother as in previous year | childethn sesbth pregsmk pregalc pregalc:childethn | ||
| Children aged 6 to 13, mother not working in previous year, and is not birth-mother, but is same mother as in previous year | gender mage fage ga pregsmk pregsmk2 bthorder npresch | ||
| Children aged 6 to 13 and mother working in previous year | age childethn mage fage fage2 meduc feduc bw bw2 ga breast breast2 pregalc twin npresch age:childethn age:fage age:meduc age:npresch fage:childethn bw:childethn ga:childethn pregalc:childethn twin:childethn | ||
| Number of hours worked per week for working mothers | Negative binomial | Children age 2 to 5 and mother is the child’s birthmother | childethn meduc sesbth single0 mhrswrk_previous ga ga2 breast breast2 mhrswrk_previous:childethn ga:childethn |
| Children age 2 to 5 and mother is not birth-mother, and is not same mother as in previous year | childethn bw twin bthorder bthorder:childethn | ||
| Children age 2 to 5 and mother is not birth-mother, but is same mother as in previous year | childethn mhrswrk_previous pregsmk pregsmk2 pregalc pregsmk:childethn | ||
| Negative binomial with dispersion parameter modelled as quadratic function of age | Children age 6 to 13 and mother is child’s birth-mother | age childethn bthorder npresch mhrswrk_previous age:npresch age:mhrswrk_previous | |
| Negative binomial | Children age 6 to 13 and mother is not birth-mother, and is not same mother as in previous year | childethn meduc feduc sesbth single0 bw ga pregsmk bthorder childethn:feduc bw:childethn ga:childethn bthorder:childethn | |
| Children age 6 to 13 and mother is not birth-mother, but is same mother as in previous year | gender feduc ga pregsmk pregalc pregalc2 twin bthorder interact interact2 | ||
| Father working | Logistic | Children aged 2 to 5, father not working in previous year, and is birth-father | age meduc feduc sesbth |
| Children aged 2 to 5, father not working in previous year, and is not birth-father, and is not same father as in previous year | age age2 mage single0 bthorder age:single0 | ||
| Children aged 2 to 5, father not working in previous year, and is not birth-father, but is same father as in previous year | bw ga ga2 | ||
| Children aged 2 to 5, father working in previous year, and is birth-father | age age2 gender childethn mage mage2 feduc sesbth single0 pregsmk pregsmk2 bthorder age:childethn age:feduc age:sesbth age:single0 age:pregsmk sesbth:childethn | ||
| Children aged 2 to 5, father working in previous year, and is not birth-father, and is not same father as in previous year | fage2 single0 bthorder bthorder2 | ||
| Children aged 2 to 5, father working in previous year, and is not birth-father, but is same father as in previous year | age single0 pregsmk pregsmk2 age:single0 | ||
| Children aged 6 to 13, father not working in previous year, and is birth-father | age childethn sesbth single0 punish punish2 age:single0 age:punish sesbth:childethn punish:childethn | ||
| Children aged 6 to 13, father not working in previous year, and is not birth-father, and is not same father as in previous year | childethn pregsmk pregalc | ||
| Children aged 6 to 13, father not working in previous year, and is not birth-father, but is same father as in previous year | childethn fage fage2 meduc breast npresch fage:childethn npresch:childethn | ||
| Children aged 6 to 13, father working in previous year, and is birth-father | age childethn mage mage2 feduc sesbth single0 pregalc pregalc2 twin bthorder bthorder2 npresch age:childethn mage:childethn | ||
| Children aged 6 to 13, father working in previous year, and is not birth-father, and is not same father as in previous year | age fage breast twin age:twin | ||
| Children aged 6 to 13, father working in previous year, and is not birth-father, but is same father as in previous year | age gender sesbth single0 npresch | ||
| Number of hours worked per week for working fathers | Standard OLS Linear | Children aged 2 to 5 | gender childethn mage feduc sesbth single0 bw ga ga2 pregsmk pregalc fhrswrk_previous childethn:feduc sesbth:childethn pregsmk:childethn fhrswrk_previous:childethn |
| Children aged 6 to 13 and father is child’s birth-father | age gender childethn fage meduc single0 pregsmk pregalc twin npresch fhrswrk_previous age:gender age:childethn age:fage age:pregsmk age:twin gender:childethn pregsmk:childethn fhrswrk_previous:childethn | ||
| Children aged 6 to 13 and father is not birth-father, and is not same father as in previous year | age childethn mage fage sesbth single0 bw pregsmk pregsmk2 pregalc twin npresch interact age:childethn mage:childethn sesbth:childethn single0:childethn pregsmk:childethn twin:childethn npresch:childethn interact:childethn | ||
| Children aged 6 to 13 and father is not birthfather, but is same father as in the previous year | age age2 mage meduc sesbth single0 bw pregalc pregalc2 punish punish2 interact fhrswrk_previous age:single0 age:interact age:fhrswrk_previous | ||
| Accomodation type | Logistic | Children aged 2 to 5 and living in detached house in previous year | age childethn mage mage2 meduc ga pregalc bthorder householdsize mhrswrk welfare age:childethn age:mage ga:childethn pregalc:childethn householdsize:childethn |
| Children aged 2 to 5 and living in attached house in previous year | age age2 childethn mage single0 breast pregalc twin kids householdsize fhrswrk welfare age:mage age:single age:breast kids:childethn householdsize:childethn fhrswrk:childethn | ||
| Children aged 6 to 13 and living in detached house in previous year | gender childethn meduc pregsmk pregsmk22 bthorder single kids householdsize mhrswrk mhrswrk2 fhrswrk welfare punish interact interact single:childethn kids:childethn householdsize:childethn fhrswrk:childethn | ||
| Children aged 6 to 13 and living in attached house in previous year | age gender fage fage2 meduc single0 bw pregsmk pregalc twin single fhrswrk fhrswrk2 punish age:meduc age:pregamk age:pregalc age:fhrswrk age:punish | ||
| Home-ownership | Logistic | Children aged 2 to 5 and did not own home in previous year | age childethn mage sesbth bw kids householdsize mhrswrk fhrswrk fhrswrk2 welfare age:mage age:householdsize age:mhrswrk sesbth:childethn welfare:childethn |
| Children aged 2 to 5 and did own home in previous year | childethn mage feduc sesbth single0 bthorder bthorde2 single single0:childethn | ||
| Children aged 6 to 13 and did not own home in previous year | childethn single kids mage householdsize age age2 fhrswrk meduc kids:childethn householdsize:childethn single:childethn ga ga2 mhrswrk mhrswrk2 pregsmk age:ga breast breast2 | ||
| Children aged 6 to 13 and did own home in previous year | age gender childethn sesbth pregsmk single householdsize fhrswrk fhrswrk2 npresch age:single gender:childethn sesbth:childethn pregsmk:childethn single:childethn fhrswrk:childethn npresch:childethn | ||
| Over-crowding | Logistic | Children aged 2 to 5 and lived in overcrowded accommodation in previous year | age age2 gender pregsmk bthorder single kids householdsize welfare age:gender age:single age:kids age:householdsize age:welfare |
| Children aged 2 to 5 and did not live in overcrowded accommodation in previous year | age gender childethn mage fage fage2 meduc single0 bthorder kids householdsize fhrswrk age:childethn age:bthorder age:kids age:householdsize age:fhrswrk gender:childethn mage:childethn meduc:childethn kids:childethn householdsize:childethn | ||
| Children aged 6 to 13 and lived in overcrowded accommodation in previous year | age age2 gender meduc bw ga breast breast2 pregsmk pregsmk2 bthorder householdsize welfare npresch interact age:meduc age:bw age:breast age:interact | ||
| Children aged 6 to 13 and did not live in overcrowded accommodation in previous year | householdsize mage kids childethn householdsize:childethn mage:childethn age fhrswrk kids:childethn bthorder meduc fage age:fage mage:age fhrswrk:childethn bthorder:childethn twin mhrswrk mhrswrk2 age:mhrswrk kids:age | ||
| Mother smoking | Logistic | Children aged 2 to 5, mother did not smoke in previous year, and is birth-mother | gender childethn mage mage2 breast breast2 pregsmk pregsmk2 mhrswrk gender:childethn mhrswrk:childethn |
| Children aged 2 to 5, mother did not smoke in previous year, and is not birth-mother, and is not same mother as in previous year | age fage fhrswrk welfare | ||
| Children aged 2 to 5, mother did not smoke in previous year, and is not birth-mother, but is same mother as in previous year | bthorder | ||
| Children aged 2 to 5 and mother did smoke in previous year | age age2 fage fage2 sesbth breast pregsmk pregsmk2 welfare age:fage | ||
| Children aged 6 to 13 and mother did not smoke in the previous year | age age2 gender childethn mage meduc feduc sesbth bw bw2 ga pregsmk pregsmk2 twin single householdsize welfare age:gender age:childethn age:mage age:feduc age:sesbth single:childethn welfare:childethn | ||
| Children aged 6 to 13, mother did smoke in previous year, and is birth-mother | age childethn fage meduc sesbth bw breast breast2 pregsmk pregsmk2 bthorder mhrswrk interact interact2 age:sesbth age:mhrswrk meduc:childethn sesbth:childethn bthorder:childethn | ||
| Children aged 6 to 13, mother did smoke in previous year, and is not birth-mother, and is not same mother as in previous year | pregsmk pregalc mhrswrk | ||
| Children aged 6 to 13, mother did smoke in previous year, and is not birth-mother, but is same mother as in previous year | age childethn sesbth ga pregsmk pregsmk2 single mhrswrk npresch interact interact2 age:npresch age:interact ga:childethn single:childethn npresch:childethn interact:childethn | ||
| Number of cigarettes smoked per day for smoking mothers | Standard OLS linear | Children aged 2 to 5 | age childethn feduc msmoke_prevous ga pregsmk pregsmk2 single fhrswrk mhrswrk welfare age:msmoke_prevous age:ga ga:childethn pregsmk:childethn fhrswrk:childeth welfare:childethn |
| Children aged 6 to 13 and mother is child’s birth-mother | age mage mage2 fage fage2 meduc bw bw2 pregsmk bthorder interact interact2 msmoke_previous householdsize mhrswrk welfare age:pregsmk age:msmoke_previous age:mhrswrk | ||
| Children aged 6 to 13 and mother is not birth-mother, and is not same mother as in previous year | age mage meduc sesbth single0 ga breast pregsmk pregsmk2 pregalc npresch msmoke_previous mhrswrk age:pregsmk | ||
| Children aged 6 to 13 and mother is not birth-mother, but is same mother as in previous year | age childethn mage fage fage2 ga pregsmk pregalc twin interact msmoke_previous age:childethn age:pregalc mage:childethn ga:childethn msmoke_prevous:childethn | ||
| Father smoking | Logistic | Children aged 2 to 5, father did not smoke in previous year, and is birth-father | childethn meduc sesbth single0 bw ga breast breast2 twin kids fhrswrk mhrswrk single0:childethn bw:childethn breast:childethn twin:childethn fhrswrk:childethn |
| Children aged 2 to 5, father did not smoke in previous year, and is not birth-father, but is same father as in previous year | childethn fage meduc pregsmk pregalc bthorder single kids mhrswrk mhrswrk2 | ||
| Children aged 2 to 5, father did smoke in previous year, and is birth-father | age gender childethn mage sesbth bw pregsmk single kids fhrswrk fhrswrk2 welfare age:pregsmk age:single age:welfare bw:childethn | ||
| Children aged 2 to 5, father did smoke in previous year, and is not birth-father, and is not same father as in previous year | age childethn fage meduc feduc | ||
| Children aged 2 to 5, father did smoke in previous year, and is not birth-father, and is not same father as in previous year | single0 pregalc householdsize | ||
| Children aged 2 to 5, father did smoke in previous year, and is not birth-father, but is same father as in previous year | childethn sesbth single0 ga ga2 pregsmk fhrswrk sesbth:childethn single0:childethn ga:childethn pregsmk:childethn | ||
| Children aged 6 to 13, father did not smoke in previous year, and is birth-father | age age2 gender childethn fage feduc sesbth bw ga ga2 breast pregalc single householdsize fhrswrk mhrswrk mhrswrk2 welfare npresch interact age:feduc age:mhrswrk gender:childethn childethn:feduc sesbth:childethn bw:childethn householdsize:childethn | ||
| Children aged 6 to 13, father did not smoke in previous year, and is not birth-father, and is not same father as in previous year | age fage feduc pregsmk single kids householdsize mhrswrk welfare npresch interact age:fage | ||
| Children aged 6 to 13, father did not smoke in previous year, and is not birth-father, but is same father as in previous year | age feduc pregsmk pregalc kids fhrswrk mhrswrk mhrswrk2 punish | ||
| Children aged 6 to 13, father did smoke in previous year | gender childethn meduc feduc bw bw2 pregsmk bthorder single kids fhrswrk mhrswrk npresch interact childethn:feduc fhrswrk:childethn | ||
| Number of cigarettes smoked per day for smoking fathers | Standard OLS linear | Children aged 2 to 5 and father is child’s birth-father | age childethn fsmoke_previous ga pregsmk bthorder welfare age:fsmoke_previous age:ga age:pregsmk age:welfare fsmoke_previous:childethn pregsmk:childethn |
| Children aged 2 to 5 and father is not birth-father, and is not same father as in previous year | childethn bw fsmoke_previous bw bw2 pregsmk pregsmk2 welfare | ||
| Children aged 2 to 5 and father is not birth-father, but is same father as in previous year | age mage mage2 single0 fsmoke_previous pregalc pregalc2 age:single0 | ||
| Children aged 6 to 13 and father is child’s birth-father | childethn mage fage feduc sesbth breast breast2 pregsmk pregsmk2 pregalc interact interact2 fsmopke_previous single mage:childethn fage:childethn breast:childethn interact:childethn single:childethn | ||
| Children aged 6 to 13 and father is not birth-father, and is not same father as in previous year | meduc bw pregsmk pregsmk2 pregalc npresch punish interact fsmoke_previous single kids householdsize mhrswrk welfare | ||
| Children aged 6 to 13 and father is not birth-father, but is same father as in previous year | gender single0 bw bthorder interact fsmoke_previous kids fhrswrk mhrswrk mhrswrk2 | ||
| Mother’s emotional responsiveness | Negative binomial | Children at age 5 | gender childethn mage mage2 sesbth single0 bw breast breast2 pregsmk meankids1_5 meanmhrswrk1_5 meanwelfare1_5 meanaccom1_5 meanovercrowd1_5 meanchpar1_5 meanchres1_5 breast:childethn meankids1_5:childethn |
| Number of years of preschool education | Standard OLS linear | Children at age5 | meduc feduc sesbth breast meanhouseholdsize1_5 meanaccom1_5 meanchres1_5 meanmsmoke1_5 |
| Mother’s punitiveness | Poisson | Children at age5 | gender childethn fage meduc meanmhrswrk1_5 meanhomeown1_5 meanchpar1_5 meduc:childethn meanmhrswrk1_5:childethn meanhomeown1_5:childethn |
| Total family doctor visits | Negative binomial | Children aged 2 years | childethn fage fage2 meduc feduc sesbth gptotvis_previous kids_previous fage:childethn gptotvis_previous:childethn |
| Children aged 3 to 5 years | age age2 childethn meduc single0 bthorder gptotv’s_previous householdsize_previous fhrswrk_previous overcrowd_previous age:bthorder age:fhrswrk_previous meduc:childethn single0:childethn | ||
| Children aged 6 years | childethn meduc single0 pregsmk npresch punish punish2 gptotvis_previous kids_previous accom_previous overcrowd_previous punish:childethn gptotv’s_previous:childethn | ||
| Children aged 7 to 10 years | age age2 childethn punish interact gptotv’s_previous kids_previous fhrswrk_previous age:gptotv’s_previous age:kids_previous punish:childethn interact:childethn fhrswrk_previous:childethn | ||
| Number of visits to a GP for a morbidity | Negative binomial | Children aged 2 | childethn single_previous chpar_previous gptotvis gpresp chpar_previous:childethn gptotv’s:childethn |
| Children aged 3 and 4 | age gender childethn feduc single_previous kids_previous welfare_previous accom_previous gptotv’s gpresp age:welfare_previous gender:childethn childethn:feduc single_previous:childethn welfare_previous:childethn accom_previous:childethn gptotvis:childethn gpresp:childethn | ||
| Children aged 5 | childethn mage meduc twin bthorder fhrswrk_previous welfare_previous gptotvis gpresp gptotvis:childethn gpresp:childethn | ||
| Children aged 6 and 7 | age childethn meduc gpmorb_previous single_previous fhrswrk_previous fhrswrk_previous2 overcrowd_previous gptotv’s gpresp age:fhrswrk_previous age:overcrowd_previous meduc:childethn fhrswrk_previous:childethn overcrowd_previous:childethn gptotvis:childethn gpresp:childethn | ||
| Number of preventative visits to a GP | Standard OLS linear | Children aged 2 | childethn mage bthorder welfare_previous gptotvis gpresp gpmorb welfare_previous:childethn gptotv’s:childethn gpresp:childethn gpmorb:childethn |
| Poisson | Children aged 3 and 4 age | childethn mage fage single0 bw breast bthorder gptotvis gpresp gpmorb age:bw age:breast age:bthorder age:gptotvis age:gpresp age:gpmorb mage:childethn fage:childethn gptotvis:childethn gpresp:childethn gpmorb:childethn | |
| Children aged 5 | mage meduc bw ga pregsmk2 welfare_previous fsmoke_previous fsmoke_previous2 gptotvis gpresp gpmorb | ||
| Children aged 6 and 7 | age meduc sesbth single0 breast chpar_previous gptotvis gpresp gpmorb age:meduc age:sesbth age:single0 age:breast age:chpar_previous age:gptotvis age:gpresp age:gpmorb | ||
| Number of visits to a GP for a respiratory condition | Negative binomial | Children aged 2 to 5 | age age2 childethn feduc sesbth gpresp_previous fhrswrk_previous homeown_previous fsmoke_previous gptotvis age:childethn age:gptotvis childethn:feduc sesbth:childethn fhrswrk_previous:childethn gptotvis:childethn |
| Children aged 6 to 1O | age age2 childethn pregalc gpresp_previous welfare_previous npresch gptotvis age:childethn age:gpresp_previous age:gptotvis gpresp_previous:childethn npresch:childethn gptotvis:childethn | ||
| Number of hospital admission | Poisson | Children aged 2 to 5 | aage gender hadm_previous chres_previous fsmoke_previous age:hadmtot_previous age:fsmoke_previous |
| Children aged 6 to 1O | age age2 gender childethn fage sesbth bw ga punish hadmtot_previous kids_previous householdsize_previous mhrswrk_previous mhrswrk_previous2 age:gender age:childethn age:fage age:sesbth age:bw age:ga age:punish age:hadmtot_previous age:kids_previous age:householdsize_previous age:mhrswrk_previous hadmtot_previous:childethn kids_previous:childethn | ||
| Number of hospital outpatient visits | Negative binomial | Children aged 2 to 5 | age gender childethn fage meduc breast bthorder houtp_previous fhrswrk_previous welfare_previous homeown_previous overcrowd_previous chpar_previous fage:childethn meduc:childethn houtp_previous:childethn fhrswrk_previous:childethn homeown_previous:childethn overcrowd_previous:childethn chpar_previous:childethn |
| Children aged 6 to 1O | age meduc bw bthorder punish houtp_previous kids_previous welfare_previous accom_previous overcrowd_previous chpar_previous msmoke_previous age:punish age:houtp_previous age:welfare_previous age:chpar_previous age:msmoke_previous | ||
| Conduct score | Logistic | Children aged 4 | age gender childethn mage fage meduc breast breast2 bthorder chres meanmhrswrk1_3 meanwelfare1_3 meanhomeown1_3 age:fage mage:childethn fage:childethn chres:childethn |
| Children aged 5 years and no conduct problem in the previous year | gender childethn feduc sesbth breast single fhrswrk fhrswrk2 accom single:childethn | ||
| Children aged 5 years and with conduct problem in the previous year | age childethn fage ga chpar homeown:childethn chpar:childethn | ||
| Children aged 6 to 13 years and with conduct problem in the previous year | age gender childethn feduc sesbth single0 breast kids accom fsmoke msmoke msmoke2 npresch age:fsmoke single0:childethn kids:childethn | ||
| Reading score | Standard OLS linear | Children aged 8 years | gender childethn mage meduc bw bw2 breast bthorder bthorder2 householdsize fhrswrk msmoke interact punish meansingle1_7 meanwelfare1_7 meanfsmoke1_7 mage:childethn |
| Children aged 9 to 13 years | age childethn mage sesbth ga ga2 breast bthorder bthorde2 homeown overcrowd reading_previous npresch interact interact2 age:bthorder age:overcrowd age:reading_previous age:npresch age:interact |
-
‘_previous’ suffix denotes that the variable is the value for the year prior to the current year.
-
2
superscript denotes that the variable has been squared.
x:y denotes an interaction between variable x and variable y
Table A2
Missing data: Time-invariant variables – Christchurch health and development study (N = 1265).
| Variable | Number of missing values | % |
|---|---|---|
| Gender | 0 | 0% |
| Ethnicity | 0 | 0% |
| Age of mother at child’s birth | 2 | 0.2% |
| Age of father at child’s birth | 4 | 0.3% |
| Mother’s education at child’s birth | 2 | 0.2% |
| Father’s education at child’s birth | 0 | 0% |
| Family’s SES at child’s birth | 0 | 0% |
| Single-parent status at the child’s birth | 0 | 0% |
| Birth weight | 3 | 0.2% |
| Multiple birth | 0 | 0% |
| Gestational age | 37 | 2.9% |
| Birth order | 0 | 0% |
| Smoking during pregnancy | 0 | 0% |
| Drinking during pregnancy | 1 | 0.1% |
| Breastfeeding | 85 | 6.7% |
| Maternal responsiveness | 115 | 9.1% |
| Maternal punitiveness | 115 | 9.1% |
| Early childhood education | 234 | 18.5% |
Table A3
Missing data: Time-varying variables by year – Christchurch health and development study (N = 1265).
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | Year 7 | Year 8 | Year 9 | Year 1O | Year 11 | Year 12 | Year 13 | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variable | N. Miss | % | N. Miss | % | N. Miss | % | N. Miss | % | N. Miss | % | N. Miss | % | N. Miss | % | N. Miss | % | N. Miss | % | N. Miss | % | N. Miss | % | N. Miss | % | N. Miss | % |
| Single-parent status | 1O2 | 8.1 | 128 | 1O.1 | 141 | 11.1 | 174 | 13.8 | 18O | 14.2 | 2O2 | 16 | 2OO | 15.8 | 252 | 19.9 | 279 | 22.1 | 3O4 | 24 | 342 | 27 | 398 | 31.5 | 426 | 33.7 |
| Number of children | 1O2 | 8.1 | 128 | 1O.1 | 141 | 11.1 | 174 | 13.8 | 18O | 14.2 | 2O2 | 16 | 2OO | 15.8 | 252 | 19.9 | 279 | 22.1 | 3O4 | 24 | 342 | 27 | 398 | 31.5 | 426 | 33.7 |
| Number of household members | 1O2 | 8.1 | 128 | 1O.1 | 141 | 11.1 | 174 | 13.8 | 18O | 14.2 | 2O2 | 16 | 2OO | 15.8 | 252 | 19.9 | 279 | 22.1 | 3O4 | 24 | 342 | 27 | 398 | 31.5 | 426 | 33.7 |
| Mother’s working hours | 1O6 | 8.4 | 133 | 1O.5 | 15O | 11.9 | 188 | 14.9 | 184 | 14.5 | 2O9 | 16.5 | 215 | 17 | 252 | 19.9 | 28O | 22.1 | 3O5 | 24.1 | 342 | 27 | 398 | 31.5 | 426 | 33.7 |
| Father’s working hours | 112 | 8.9 | 145 | 11.5 | 159 | 12.6 | 183 | 14.5 | 2O4 | 16.1 | 216 | 17.1 | 2O6 | 16.3 | 254 | 2O.1 | 283 | 22.4 | 3O9 | 24.4 | 343 | 27.1 | 399 | 31.5 | 427 | 33.8 |
| Welfare dependent | 1O2 | 8.1 | 128 | 1O.1 | 141 | 11.1 | 174 | 13.8 | 18O | 14.2 | 2O2 | 16 | 2OO | 15.8 | 253 | 2O | 279 | 22.1 | 3O4 | 24 | 342 | 27 | 398 | 31.5 | 426 | 33.7 |
| Change of parents | 1O5 | 8.3 | 128 | 1O.1 | 141 | 11.1 | 174 | 13.8 | 18O | 14.2 | 2O2 | 16 | 2OO | 15.8 | 252 | 19.9 | 279 | 22.1 | 3O4 | 24 | 342 | 27 | 398 | 31.5 | 426 | 33.7 |
| Mother smoking | 1O5 | 8.3 | 128 | 1O.1 | 141 | 11.1 | 174 | 13.8 | 18O | 14.2 | 2O2 | 16 | 2OO | 15.8 | 252 | 19.9 | 279 | 22.1 | 3O4 | 24 | 342 | 27 | 398 | 31.5 | 426 | 33.7 |
| Father smoking | 1O2 | 8.1 | 128 | 1O.1 | 145 | 11.5 | 176 | 13.9 | 181 | 14.3 | 2O2 | 16 | 2OO | 15.8 | 252 | 19.9 | 279 | 22.1 | 3O4 | 24 | 342 | 27 | 398 | 31.5 | 426 | 33.7 |
| Accommodation type | 1O5 | 8.3 | 133 | 1O.5 | 152 | 12 | 18O | 14.2 | 186 | 14.7 | 2O2 | 16 | 2OO | 15.8 | 252 | 19.9 | 279 | 22.1 | 3O4 | 24 | 344 | 27.2 | 4OO | 31.6 | 427 | 33.8 |
| Housing tenure (owned/rented) | 1O2 | 8.1 | 128 | 1O.1 | 141 | 11.1 | 174 | 13.8 | 18O | 14.2 | 2O2 | 16 | 2OO | 15.8 | 252 | 19.9 | 279 | 22.1 | 3O4 | 24 | 342 | 27 | 398 | 31.5 | 426 | 33.7 |
| Overcrowding | 1O2 | 8.1 | 128 | 1O.1 | 141 | 11.1 | 174 | 13.8 | 18O | 14.2 | 2O2 | 16 | 2OO | 15.8 | 252 | 19.9 | 279 | 22.1 | 3O4 | 24 | 342 | 27 | 398 | 31.5 | 426 | 33.7 |
| GP visits | 111 | 8.8 | 136 | 1O.8 | 142 | 11.2 | 179 | 14.2 | 182 | 14.4 | 2O4 | 16.1 | 2OO | 15.8 | 252 | 19.9 | 279 | 22.1 | 3O5 | 24.1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Hospital admissions | 1O5 | 8.3 | 122 | 9.6 | 139 | 11 | 174 | 13.8 | 178 | 14.1 | 2O2 | 16 | 2OO | 15.8 | 252 | 19.9 | 279 | 22.1 | 3O4 | 24 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Hospital outpatient attendances | 1O5 | 8.3 | 122 | 9.6 | 139 | 11 | 175 | 13.8 | 179 | 14.2 | 2O3 | 16 | 2OO | 15.8 | 252 | 19.9 | 279 | 22.1 | 3O4 | 24 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Reading ability | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 26O | 2O.6 | 289 | 22.8 | 315 | 24.9 | 349 | 27.6 | 4O8 | 32.3 | 437 | 34.5 |
| Conduct problems | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 2O3 | 16 | 2OO | 15.8 | 252 | 19.9 | 279 | 22.1 | 3O5 | 24.1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Table A4
Missing data: Time-invariant variables – Dunedin multidisciplinary health and development study (N = 1037).
| Variable | Number of missing values | % |
|---|---|---|
| Gender | 0 | 0% |
| Ethnicity | 3 | 0.3% |
| Age of mother at child’s birth | 4 | 0.4% |
| Age of father at child’s birth | 28 | 2.7% |
| Mother’s education at child’s birth | 4 | 0.4% |
| Father’s education at child’s birth | 51 | 4.9% |
| Family’s SES at child’s birth | 97 | 9.4% |
| Single-parent status at the child’s birth | 0 | 0% |
| Birth weight | 2 | 0.2% |
| Multiple birth | 122 | 11.8% |
| Gestational age | 0 | 0% |
| Birth order | 2 | 0.2% |
| Smoking during pregnancy | 7 | 0.7% |
| Drinking during pregnancy | 2 | 0.2% |
| Breastfeeding | 49 | 4.7% |
| Maternal responsiveness | 2 | 0.2% |
| Maternal punitiveness | 261 | 25.2% |
| Early childhood education | 0 | 0% |
Table A5
Missing data: Time-varying variables by year – Dunedin multidisciplinary health and development study (N = 1037).
| Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 9 | Year 11 | Year 13 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variable | N. Miss | % | N. Miss | % | N. Miss | % | N. Miss | % | N. Miss | % | N. Miss | % |
| Number of children | 0 | 0 | - | - | 90 | 8.7 | - | - | 133 | 12.8 | - | - |
| Number of household members | 0 | 0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Mother’s working hours | 0 | 0 | 51 | 4.9 | 90 | 8.7 | 107 | 10.3 | 135 | 13.0 | - | - |
| Change of parents | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 133 | 12.8 | - | - |
| Change of residence | 4 | 0.4 | 59 | 5.7 | 91 | 8.8 | 89 | 8.6 | 133 | 12.8 | - | - |
| Mother smoking | - | - | - | - | - | - | 244 | 23.5 | 142 | 13.7 | - | - |
| Father smoking | - | - | - | - | - | - | 289 | 27.9 | 157 | 15.1 | - | - |
| Accommodation type | 5 | 0.5 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Housing tenure (owned/rented) | 16 | 1.5 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| GP visits | - | - | - | - | 163 | 15.7 | 223 | 21.5 | 147 | 14.2 | - | - |
| Hospital admissions | 3 | 0.3 | 52 | 5.0 | 162 | 15.6 | 222 | 21.4 | 184 | 17.4 | 215 | 20.7 |
| Hospital outpatient attendances | 1 | 0.1 | 51 | 4.9 | - | - | - | - | 142 | 13.7 | - | - |
| Reading ability | - | - | - | - | 95 | 9.2 | 85 | 8.2 | 118 | 11.4 | 210 | 20.3 |
| Conduct problems | - | - | 25 | 2.4 | 86 | 8.3 | 89 | 8.6 | 117 | 11.3 | 48 | 4.6 |
Table A6
Missing data: Time-invariant variables – Pacific Islands families study (N = 1398).
| Variable | Number of missing values | % |
|---|---|---|
| Ethnicity | 17 | 1.2 |
| Age of mother at child’s birth | 1 | 0.1 |
| Age of father at child’s birth | 565 | 40.4 |
| Mother’s education at child’s birth | 0 | 0 |
| Father’s education at child’s birth | 565 | 40.4 |
| Birth weight | 17 | 1.2 |
| Multiple birth | 0 | 0 |
| Gestational age | 19 | 1.4 |
| Birth order | 17 | 1.2 |
| Smoking during pregnancy | 6 | 0.4 |
| Drinking during pregnancy | 0 | 0 |
| Maternal punitiveness | 94 | 6.7 |
| Early childhood education | 539 | 38.6 |
Table A7
Missing data: Time-varying variables by year – Pacific Islands families study (N = 1398).
| Year | Year 2 | Year 4 | Year 6 | Year 9 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variable | N. Miss | % | N. Miss | % | N. Miss | % | N. Miss | % | N. Miss | % |
| Single-parent status | 563 | 40.3 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Number of household members | 0 | 0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Mother smoking | 162 | 11.6 | 244 | 17.5 | 340 | 24.3 | 393 | 28.1 | - | - |
| Father smoking | 570 | 40.8 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accommodation type | 1 | 0.1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Housing tenure (owned/rented) | 157 | 11.2 | 236 | 16.9 | 332 | 23.7 | 381 | 27.3 | 424 | 30.3 |
| Overcrowding | 0 | 0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| GP visits for a morbidity | 157 | 11.2 | 237 | 17.0 | 334 | 23.9 | 379 | 27.1 | 385 | 27.5 |
| Hospital admissions | 158 | 11.3 | 237 | 17.0 | 332 | 23.7 | 379 | 27.1 | 386 | 27.6 |
| Conduct problems | - | - | - | - | 333 | 23.8 | - | - | 420 | 30.0 |
Download links
A two-part list of links to download the article, or parts of the article, in various formats.