1. Pensions and retirement
  2. Dynamic microsimulation
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Distributional effects of the forthcoming finnish pension reform – a dynamic microsimulation approach

  1. Heikki Tikanmäki  Is a corresponding author
  2. Hannu Sihvonen  Is a corresponding author
  3. Janne Salonen  Is a corresponding author
  1. Finnish Centre for Pensions, Finland
Research article
Cite this article as: H. Tikanmäki, H. Sihvonen, J. Salonen; 2015; Distributional effects of the forthcoming finnish pension reform – a dynamic microsimulation approach; International Journal of Microsimulation; 8(3); 75-98. doi: 10.34196/ijm.00122
8 figures and 3 tables

Figures

Average working life by education, median length in years.
Average time spent in retirement, by education and in years.
Partition of the life course of the 1988 birth cohort, years on average.
Relative changes of the percentage points of the pension levels of 75-year-olds, by birth cohort and gender.
Relative changes of the medians of the earnings-related pensions of 75-year-olds, by gender and educational level.
Replacement rates of the statutory pensions 2017–2060 of people moving directly from work to old-age-pension, in per cent.
Change in Gini coefficient in 2017–2050.
Structure of the ELSI model. Each dark box represents a module of the model. Each white box represents an external source of information.

Tables

Table 1
Average length of expected working life in some European countries, years4.
Country Male Female Total
EU 28 37.7 32.5 35.2
Denmark 40.3 37.6 39.0
Finland 37.8 36.6 37.2
Sweden 42.1 39.6 40.9
Iceland 47.2 43.8 45.5
Norway 40.6 38.3 39.5
  1. Source: Eurostat

Table 2
Difference in working life of 75-year-olds by gender Difference of reform to baseline in years.
Gender/Cohort P25% P50% P75% Mean
Male 1960 −0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1
Male 1970 0.5 0.8 1.7 0.9
Male 1980 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.2
Male 1990 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2
Male 2000 1.0 2.0 2.0 1.4
Female 1960 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.5
Female 1970 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.0
Female 1980 1.1 1.4 1.8 1.5
Female 1990 1.0 1.0 2.0 1.6
Female 2000 1.0 1.0 2.0 1.5
Table A.3
Earnings related pension by education, median EUR/month at 2014 prices*.
Cohort Male Female
25% (baseline) 50% (baseline) 75% (baseline) 25% (baseline) 50% (baseline) 75% (baseline)
1960 1,240 1,790 2,470 1,050 1,500 1,960
1970 1,440 1,960 2,650 1,220 1,640 2,140
1980 1,640 2,180 2,900 1,470 1,950 2,610
1990 1,930 2,510 3,350 1,700 2,210 2,880
2000 2,350 3,010 3,960 2,050 2,610 3,400
25% (reform) 50% (reform) 75% (reform) 25% (reform) 50% (reform) 75% (reform)
1960 1,250 1,820 2,500 1,080 1,520 1,970
1970 1,490 2,070 2,740 1,270 1,720 2,230
1980 1,780 2,370 3,110 1,590 2,110 2,780
1990 2,150 2,770 3,640 1,880 2,430 3,110
2000 2,680 3,410 4,420 2,330 2,980 3,800
Low (baseline) High (baseline) Total (baseline) Low (baseline) High (baseline) Total (baseline)
1960 1,550 2,610 1,790 1,230 1,890 1,500
1970 1,670 2,780 1,960 1,270 2,000 1,640
1980 1,960 3,170 2,180 1,550 2,500 1,950
1990 2,250 3,670 2,510 1,820 2,720 2,210
2000 2,740 4,340 3,010 2,190 3,250 2,610
Low (reform) High (reform) Total (reform) Low (reform) High (reform) Total (reform)
1960 1,590 2,590 1,820 1,250 1,900 1,520
1970 1,780 2,870 2,070 1,340 2,080 1,720
1980 2,130 3,390 2,370 1,700 2,660 2,110
1990 2,520 4,002 2,770 2,030 2,980 2,430
2000 3,150 4,880 3,410 2,530 3,680 2,980
  1. *

    Low=Secondary or lower degree, High=Bachelor’s or higher degree.

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