1. Micro-macro linkage
  2. Taxes and benefits
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Assessing the impacts of a major tax reform: A CGE-microsimulation analysis for Uruguay

  1. Cecilia Llambi  Is a corresponding author
  2. Silvia Laens  Is a corresponding author
  3. Marcelo Perera  Is a corresponding author
  1. Centro de Investigaciones Económicas (CINVE), Montevideo-Uruguay
Research article
Cite this article as: C. Llambi, S. Laens, M. Perera; 2016; Assessing the impacts of a major tax reform: A CGE-microsimulation analysis for Uruguay; International Journal of Microsimulation; 9(1); 134-166. doi: 10.34196/ijm.00131
1 figure and 10 tables

Figures

After-tax per capita household income by decile and type of microsimulation. Full reform (variation w.r.t base).

Tables

Table 1
Direct tax on labor and pension income: pre- and post-reform.
Post-reform direct personal tax on labor and pension income Pre –Reform tax on wages and pensions
Monthly income* Tax rate Income Monthly income* Tax rate Income
Up to 5 BPC Exempt Wages, Pensions Up to 3 BPC Exempt Wages
Between 5 and 10 BPC 10% and non-wage Between 3 and 6 BPC 2%
Between 10 and 15 BPC 15% remunerations Above 6 BPC 6%
Between 15 and 50 BPC 20% Up to 6 BPC Exempt Pensions
Between 50 and 100 BPC 22% Above 6 BPC 2%
Above 100 BPC 25%
  1. Source: Authors’ elaboration based on data from the Ministry of Economics and Finance.

Table 2
Bases and rates of personal income tax on capital: post-reform.
Concept Tax rate Income
Interest on deposits over one year in financial institution 3%
Interest on deposits, under a year in financial institutions 5%
Interest on bonds and other debt securities, longer than three year maturity 3% Pure revenues from capital
Distributed profits 7%
Other capital revenues 12%
  1. Source: Authors’ elaboration based on data from the Ministry of Economics and Finance.

Table 3
Employer contribution to social security and value added tax rates: pre- and post-reform.
Sectors Employer contribution to social security Value added tax
Pre reform Reform Pre reform Reform
Primary except livestock ----- ----- 9.8% 15.4%
Livestock ----- ----- 0.0% 0.0%
Meat, fruit & veg. 5.0% 12.5% 23.0% 22.0%
Mills, sugar & vegetable oils 5.0% 12.5% 14.0% 10.0%
Dairy 5.0% 12.5% 8.6% 12.4%
Other food industry 5.0% 12.5% 21.5% 20.0%
Press 5.0% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Petroleum refining 6.5% 7.5% 5.9% 4.2%
Pharmaceutical industry 5.0% 12.5% 14.0% 10.0%
Metal products and machinery 5.0% 12.5% 22.3% 21.4%
Other manufacturing 5.0% 12.5% 23.0% 22.0%
Electricity and gas 6.5% 7.5% 22.0%
Water 24.5% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Construction 32.6% 23.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Commerce 17.5% 12.5% 16.0% 15.8%
Hotels 17.5% 12.5% 14.0% 10.0%
Passenger transport 0.0% 0.0% 14.0% 10.0%
Communications 24.5% 7.5% 23.0% 22.0%
Financial services 17.5% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Public administration 19.5% 19.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Private education 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hospitals 17.5% 12.5% 0.0% 10.0%
Other health services 17.5% 12.5% 0.0% 22.0%
Other services 17.5% 12.5% 23.0% 22.0%
  1. Source: Authors’ elaboration based on data from the Social Security Bank and the Ministry of Economics and Finance.

Table 4
Share of value added by sector.
Sectors Skilled labour Semiskilled labour Unskilled labour Capital
Primary except livestock 1.0% 1.5% 4.4% 1.1%
Livestock 3.4% 3.6% 9.2% 7.5%
Meat, fruit & veg. 0.5% 1.2% 2.5% 2.4%
Mills, sugar & vegetable oils 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3%
Dairy 0.2% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9%
Other food industry 0.6% 1.0% 2.6% 2.2%
Press 0.8% 1.0% 0.7% 0.4%
Petroleum refining 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% 8.4%
Pharmaceutical industry 1.5% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Metal products and machinery 0.9% 1.7% 2.0% 2.1%
Other manufacturing 2.5% 4.4% 6.2% 6.0%
Electricity and gas 1.8% 1.5% 1.0% 3.6%
Water 0.4% 0.4% 1.1% 0.2%
Construction 1.5% 2.1% 7.8% 7.1%
Commerce 6.5% 18.5% 18.3% 8.9%
Hotels 0.4% 0.6% 0.7% 2.3%
Passenger transport 0.3% 2.2% 3.5% 0.5%
Communications 1.7% 2.0% 1.2% 3.7%
Financial services 6.4% 8.7% 2.3% 11.9%
Public administration 26.7% 18.8% 13.8% 0.0%
Private education 4.2% 3.2% 0.6% 1.1%
Hospitals 11.1% 4.5% 2.3% 1.8%
Other health services 5.0% 1.5% 0.7% 0.5%
Other services 21.9% 18.7% 17.2% 27.0%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
  1. Source: SAM 2006.

Table 5
Taxes included in the CGE model (%).
Taxes % Tax revenue % GDP
Labor income tax (1) 4.1% 1.0%
Capital income tax 0.0% 0.0%
Pensions tax 0.4% 0.1%
Employer contribution to social security 14.9% 3.7%
Worker contribution to social security 9.0% 2.3%
Direct tax on firms 11.5% 2.6%
Sales taxes 10.8% 2.5%
Tariffs 4.3% 1.1%
Activity Taxes 2.9% 0.7%
Value added tax 39.2% 10.0%
Tax on intermediate consumption of goods 2.8% 0.7%
Total 100% 24.7%
  1. Source: SAM 2006.

  2. (1)

    Includes taxes on the three types of labour

Table 6
Simulation results.
Units Base scenario Simulations with flexible gov. savings Simulations with flexible real gov. consumption Simulations with budget neutral assumption
REFORM_ gsav VAT_ gsav INCTAX_ gsav ECSS_ gsav FDIRTAX_ gsav REFORM_ gcons VAT_ gcons INCTAX_ gcons ECSS_ gcons FDIRTAX_ gcons REFORM_ vat INCTAX_ vat ECSS_ vat FDIRTAX_ vat
Gov. financing
Gov. Income %GDP 25,0 25,6 23,9 27,9 24,3 24,5 25,6 23,9 27,8 24,3 24,5 25,2 25,1 25,0 25,0
Gov.consumption %GDP 11,4 11,4 11,4 11,4 11,4 11,4 11,9 10,3 14,1 10,7 10,9 11,5 11,5 11,4 11,4
Gov.savings %GDP 1,6 2,1 0,4 4,5 0,8 1,0 1,6 1,6 1,6 1,6 1,6 1,6 1,6 1,6 1,6
Direct taxes % tot. rev* 22,3 33,4 24,2 32,5 22,4 20,1 33,4 24,1 32,7 22,4 20,1 34,5 39,2 21,3 19,4
Indirect taxes % tot. rev* 77,7 66,6 75,8 67,5 77,6 79,9 66,6 75,9 67,3 77,6 79,9 65,5 60,8 78,7 80,6
Macro aggregates
Absorption % change -- 0,9 0,3 0,1 0,5 0,0 1,1 0,0 0,9 0,3 -0,2 1,1 1,0 0,3 -0,2
Priv.consumption % change -- 0,3 1,7 -3,4 1,6 0,5 0,6 1,2 -2,0 1,2 0,3 1,1 0,9 0,5 -0,3
Investment % change -- 4,5 -5,6 16,2 -4,1 -2,5 1,2 1,4 -1,3 0,3 0,6 1,8 2,0 -0,4 0,1
Gov.consumption % change -- 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 4,1 -9,5 22,4 -5,9 -4,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
Exports % change -- 1,8 -0,3 2,7 -0,3 -0,4 1,1 1,1 -0,8 0,6 0,2 1,5 1,6 0,0 -0,2
Imports % change -- 1,8 -0,3 2,8 -0,3 -0,4 1,2 1,2 -0,9 0,6 0,2 1,6 1,6 0,0 -0,2
GDP mp % change -- 0,9 0,3 0,1 0,5 0,0 1,1 0,0 0,9 0,3 -0,2 1,1 1,0 0,3 -0,2
Net indirect taxes % change -- 1,1 0,4 0,2 0,5 0,0 0,9 0,9 -0,9 0,8 0,2 1,1 1,3 0,2 -0,2
GDPfc % change -- 0,9 0,3 0,1 0,5 0,0 1,1 -0,2 1,2 0,2 -0,3 1,3 0,9 0,3 -0,2
HH disp. income % change -- 0,1 1,7 -3,6 1,6 0,5 0,3 1,2 -2,2 1,2 0,3 0,9 0,8 0,4 -0,3
Employment
Skilled % change -- 1,7 0,9 -0,5 1,2 0,1 2,5 -1,3 3,9 -0,1 -0,9 2,1 1,8 0,7 -0,4
Semiskilled % change -- 1,6 0,7 -0,1 1,0 0,0 1,9 -0,1 1,9 0,5 -0,4 1,9 1,7 0,5 -0,3
Unskilled % change -- 2,0 0,6 0,6 0,9 -0,1 2,0 0,5 0,7 0,9 -0,1 2,2 2,0 0,6 -0,4
Total % change -- 1,9 0,7 0,3 1,0 0,0 2,0 0,2 1,3 0,7 -0,3 2,1 1,9 0,6 -0,4
Unemployment
Skilled % lab. force 4,4 2,9 3,4 5,4 3,1 4,3 2,2 5,4 1,3 4,3 5,2 2,5 2,8 3,8 4,7
Semiskilled % lab. force 10,1 8,7 9,4 10,4 9,2 10,0 8,4 10,1 8,6 9,6 10,4 8,4 8,6 9,6 10,4
Unskilled % lab. force 12,0 10,2 11,4 11,6 11,1 12,0 10,2 11,5 11,4 11,2 12,1 9,9 10,1 11,5 12,3
Participation rate
Skilled % pop.age 81,6 81,8 81,5 82,0 81,6 81,6 81,8 81,4 82,2 81,5 81,5 81,7 81,7 81,6 81,6
Semiskilled % pop.age 74,8 74,9 74,8 75,1 74,8 74,8 74,9 74,8 75,1 74,8 74,8 74,8 74,8 74,8 74,9
Unskilled % pop.age 58,2 58,1 58,1 58,2 58,1 58,2 58,1 58,2 58,2 58,2 58,2 58,1 58,1 58,2 58,2
Factor payments
Skilled % change -- 1,4 0,9 -0,7 1,2 0,1 2,4 -0,7 4,2 0,1 -0,5 1,9 1,6 0,5 -0,2
Semiskilled % change -- 2,1 1,1 -0,4 1,4 0,1 2,6 0,0 2,2 0,7 -0,4 2,6 2,3 0,7 -0,4
Unskilled % change -- 2,4 0,7 0,5 1,1 -0,1 2,4 0,6 0,8 1,0 -0,1 2,8 2,5 0,6 -0,4
Capital % change -- 3,2 2,1 0,3 1,0 -0,1 2,8 2,9 -1,9 1,5 0,3 4,3 6,2 -0,5 -1,1
  1. *

    Total revenue excluding social security contributions and tariffs

Table 7
Household disposable income (% change).
Decile of HH income REFORM_ vat INCTAX_ vat ECSS_ vat FDIRTAX_ vat
1 3.9 3.8 0.6 -0.5
2 4.7 4.6 0.7 -0.5
3 4.9 4.8 0.6 -0.5
4 4.6 4.5 0.6 -0.5
5 4.6 4.5 0.6 -0.4
6 4.2 4.1 0.5 -0.4
7 3.6 3.6 0.4 -0.3
8 2.5 2.4 0.3 -0.3
9 1.2 1.2 0.2 -0.2
10 -2.8 -2.7 0.0 -0.1
  1. Source: author’s CGE simulation results.

Table 8
Labor demand by aggregated sector of activity (percentage change with respect to base (%)).
Simulations with flexible government consumption Simulations with flexible government savings Simulations with budget neutral assumption
REFORM_gsav INCTAX_gsav ECSS_gsav TVA_gsav FDIRTAX_gsav REFORM_gcons INCTAX_gcons ECSS_gcons TVA_gcons FDIRTAX_gcons REFORM_tva INCTAX_tva ECSS_tva FDIRTAX_tva
Primary sectors 3.1 2.1 1.4 -0.3 -0.3 2.4 -1.4 2.4 1.1 0.3 3.3 3.3 1.2 -0.5
Manufacturing 1.6 4.6 -3.2 0.9 -0.7 0.5 -1.5 -1.7 3.4 0.4 1.2 2.5 -2.6 -0.3
Construction 5.9 12.4 -1.4 -3.8 -1.9 3.1 -2.2 2.4 2.1 0.7 4.1 3.2 1.1 -0.3
Pub. administration % pub. services 0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.0 21.2 -5.5 -8.9 -4.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Commerce 2.1 -1.6 2.3 1.2 0.3 2.0 -2.1 2.5 1.4 0.3 2.8 1.9 1.4 -0.4
Private education and health 1.9 -2.8 2.0 2.4 0.5 2.1 -1.6 1.7 1.9 0.3 2.6 1.2 0.9 -0.3
Other services 1.4 -2.6 2.5 1.3 0.4 1.4 -2.4 2.4 1.2 0.3 2.2 2.0 1.3 -0.5
Total 1.9 0.3 1.0 0.7 0.0 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.2 -0.3 2.1 1.9 0.6 -0.4
  1. Source: author’s CGE model results.

Table 9
Microsimulation results of the full reform under different macroeconomic closures of the model on the government: effects on income, poverty and inequality.
Mean of PCHI Mean of LI Extreme Moderate Poverty: FGT(a) indicators Inequality
(after direct taxes) (after direct taxes) Poverty (incidence) Incidence: FGT(0) Poverty Gap Ratio: FGT(1) Severity of Poverty: FGT(2) Gini of PCHI GINI of LI
Base Indicators 6.425 8.148 2,29 27,88 9,34 4,31 0,453 0,498
Arithmetical Microsimulation (a) -1,2% -1,5% -0,01 -0,33 -0,10 -0,04 -0,009 -0,013
Simulations with flexible government savings
Labor Market Changes (Gen. Equilib. Effects) (b) 1,5% 1,8% -0,16 -0,65 -0,32 -0,18 -0,001 0,001
  + Participation Rate Change 0,0% 0,0% 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,000 0,000
   + Unemployment Rate Change 0,4% 0,0% -0,10 -0,29 -0,14 -0,09 -0,001 0,002
    + Employment Structure Change 0,0% -0,1% 0,01 0,03 0,01 0,01 0,000 0,000
     + Wage Structure Change 0,0% 0,0% 0,00 -0,04 -0,02 -0,01 0,000 -0,001
      + Wage Rate Change 0,9% 1,8% -0,07 -0,35 -0,17 -0,09 0,000 -0,001
  + Capital Price Change 0,1% 0,0% 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,000 0,000
Total Microsimulation Effects (c)=(a)+(b) 0,3% 0,3% -0,16 -0,98 -0,43 -0,22 -0,010 -0,012
Final Counterfactual Indicators 6.441 8.169 2,12 26,90 8,91 4,09 0,443 0,486
Simulations with flexible government consumption
Labor Market Changes (Gen. Equilib. Effects) (b) 1,8% 2,2% -0,18 -0,82 -0,38 -0,20 -0,001 0,000
  + Participation Rate Change 0,0% 0,0% 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,000 0,000
   + Unemployment Rate Change 0,5% 0,0% -0,10 -0,32 -0,15 -0,09 -0,001 0,002
    + Employment Structure Change 0,0% 0,0% 0,00 -0,04 -0,02 -0,01 0,000 -0,001
     + Wage Structure Change 0,0% 0,0% 0,00 0,01 0,00 0,00 0,000 0,000
      + Wage Rate Change 1,2% 2,2% -0,07 -0,46 -0,22 -0,11 0,000 -0,001
  + Capital Price Change 0,1% 0,0% 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,000 0,000
Total Microsimulation Effects (c)=(a)+(b) 0,6% 0,8% -0,18 -1,14 -0,48 -0,25 -0,009 -0,013
Final Counterfactual Indicators 6.463 8.208 2,11 26,73 8,85 4,06 0,443 0,485
Simulations with budget neutral assumption
Labor Market Changes (Gen. Equilib. Effects) (b) 1,8% 2,1% -0,17 -0,80 -0,37 -0,20 -0,001 0,001
  + Participation Rate Change 0,0% 0,0% 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,000 0,000
   + Unemployment Rate Change 0,5% 0,0% -0,11 -0,33 -0,16 -0,10 -0,001 0,002
    + Employment Structure Change 0,0% -0,1% 0,01 0,04 0,02 0,01 0,000 0,000
     + Wage Structure Change 0,0% 0,0% 0,00 -0,03 -0,01 -0,01 0,000 -0,001
      + Wage Rate Change 1,2% 2,2% -0,06 -0,48 -0,21 -0,11 0,000 -0,001
       + Capital Price Change 0,1% 0,0% 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,000 0,000
Total Microsimulation Effects (c)=(a)+(b) 0,6% 0,7% -0,18 -1,13 -0,48 -0,24 -0,009 -0,012
Final Counterfactual Indicators 6.461 8.201 2,11 26,75 8,86 4,06 0,443 0,486
Table 10
Counterfactual changes in mean per capita household income by decile, due to reforms, by different government closures.
Decile of HH income Base Scenario Arithmetical Microsim % Arith./Base Simulations with flexible government savings Simulations with flexible real government consumption Simulations with budget neutral assumption
Cumulative Changes (Arith + GE effects) % Cum./Arith. Total Variation (%) Cumulative Changes (Arith + GE effects) % Cum./Arith. Total Variation (%) Cumulative Changes (Arith + GE effects) % Cum./Arith. Total Variation (%)
1 1.448 1.452 0,2% 1.484 2,2% 2,5% 1.490 2,6% 2,9% 1.488 2,5% 2,7%
2 2.386 2.401 0,6% 2.453 2,1% 2,8% 2.458 2,4% 3,0% 2.458 2,4% 3,0%
3 3.216 3.241 0,8% 3.301 1,9% 2,7% 3.311 2,2% 2,9% 3.311 2,2% 3,0%
4 4.064 4.095 0,8% 4.167 1,7% 2,5% 4.179 2,0% 2,8% 4.178 2,0% 2,8%
5 4.996 5.029 0,7% 5.107 1,5% 2,2% 5.124 1,9% 2,6% 5.119 1,8% 2,5%
6 6.091 6.125 0,6% 6.210 1,4% 1,9% 6.231 1,7% 2,3% 6.228 1,7% 2,2%
7 7.480 7.510 0,4% 7.604 1,3% 1,7% 7.629 1,6% 2,0% 7.627 1,6% 2,0%
8 9.455 9.460 0,1% 9.578 1,3% 1,3% 9.607 1,5% 1,6% 9.604 1,5% 1,6%
9 12.883 12.792 -0,7% 12.933 1,1% 0,4% 12.974 1,4% 0,7% 12.965 1,4% 0,6%
10 26.441 25.320 -4,2% 25.589 1,1% -3,2% 25.667 1,4% -2,9% 25.647 1,3% -3,0%

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