This article contains 15 tables.
Tables
| Consolidation instrument | Scaling coefficient | Source of the official statistics for 2018 |
|---|---|---|
| Personal income tax | 1.17 | Committee for the tax forecasts (Ministry of Finance) |
| Social and health insurance contributions | 1.04 | Committee for the tax forecasts (Ministry of Finance) |
| Social transfers | 1.07 | Information system on Government Budget |
| Value added tax | 1.97 | Committee for the tax forecasts (Ministry of Finance) When scaling the VAT, only the part paid by households is considered (estimated as the 87% of the total volume). |
Notes: Scaling coefficient is given as the ratio of the official statistics to simulated outcome from the model. Official statistics for every consolidation instrument is a forecasted value.
| Scenario name | Actual/baseline legislation | Simulated policy change in scenario |
|---|---|---|
| Taxing labour income | ||
| PIT – 1 p.p. increase in the standard rate | Two tax rates of personal income tax apply. – 19% levied on yearly income up to 35 268 € – 25% levied on income exceeding 35 268 € |
The standard rate is increased from 19% to 20%. |
| PIT – One tax rate | Introduction of one tax rate of 22%. Basic and spouse tax allowances apply. | |
| PIT – Decrease in tax allowances | Basic and spouse tax allowance up to 3 830 € yearly (for each) can be deducted from individual taxable income. | Basic and spouse tax allowance up to 3 630 € yearly (for each) can be deducted from individual taxable income. |
| Taxing consumption | ||
| VAT – 1 p.p. increase in the standard rate | The standard rate is set to 20%, the reduced rate 10%. A number of goods are exempt from the tax base. | The standard rate is increased to 21%. |
| VAT – abolition of the reduced rate | The reduced rate is abolished, all goods are taxed at the standard rate 20%. | |
| Payroll taxes: employees vs. employers | ||
| HIC – 1 p.p. increase in the rate paid by employers | Health insurance contributions: –4% employees – 10% employers |
Increase of HIC paid by employers to 11%. |
| HIC – 1 p.p. increase in the rate paid by employees | Increase of HIC paid by employees to 5% | |
| Taxing firms | ||
| CIT – 1 p.p. increase in the rate | Effective tax rate set to 19.5% | Effective tax rate increased to 20.5% |
| Scenario name | Actual/baseline legislation | Simulated policy change in scenario |
|---|---|---|
| Cutting expenditures | ||
| Reduction of family related transfers and credits | Family transfers include: – parental allowance (monthly 214.70 € – child benefits (monthly 23.69 € and 11.1 € per child) – child birth benefit (one-time 829.86 € at birth) Entitlement to family transfers is currently unconditional on income and applies up to 3 years of age of the child. Child birth benefit is granted up to the third childbirth. |
The eligibility for family transfers is tested against an assessed income defined as the gross taxable income of members of the family. If the family's assessed income is higher than 4 times the amount of their minimum subsistence level (MSL), the family transfers are not granted. Tax credit for dependent children is not granted if the above-mentioned income condition is fulfilled. |
| Tax credit for dependent children in the amount of 21.41 € monthly per child. | ||
| Reduction of material need benefits | Material need allowances consist of: – basic material need benefit (MNB) varies from 61.60 € up to 216.10 € monthly, depending on the family structure. – allowance for pregnant women and parent of children up to 1 year of age: 13.50 € – activation and protection allowance: 63.07 € – housing allowance: 55.80 € or 89.20 €, depending on the family structure |
Reduction of MNB (of all allowances) by 10%. |
| Family is eligible for MNB if their assessed income (net income from labour plus pensions) is below MSL of the family. MSL levels are: – first adult 199.48 € – jointly considered another person 139.16 € – dependent children 91.06 € |
||
| Dependent variable ACTIVE | Females | Males | |
|---|---|---|---|
| logGTW | 0.314*** (0.043) | 0.248*** (0.054) | |
| logNY | –0.201*** (0.018) | –0.181*** (0.023) | |
| EDU: Secondary | 0.586*** (0.033) | 0.626*** (0.039) | |
| EDU: Tertiary | 0.760*** (0.042) | 0.843*** (0.051) | |
| Parent with child under 3y. | –2.159*** (0.037) | 0.450*** (0.087) | |
| Parent with child over 3y. | 0.075** (0.029) | 0.413*** (0.044) | |
| Fam: Married | –0.070* (0.036) | –0.076* (0.045) | |
| Fam: Divorced / Widowed | 0.121*** (0.040) | –0.002 (0.066) | |
| Has working partner | 0.229*** (0.034) | 0.289*** (0.042) | |
| Chronic disease | –0.728*** (0.025) | –1.162*** (0.032) | |
| Student | –2.042*** (0.038) | –2.240*** (0.040) | |
| Pensioner | –2.465*** (0.034) | –2.873*** (0.047) | |
| Year 2013 | –0.072** (0.030) | 0.054 (0.038) | |
| Year 2014 | –0.103*** (0.030) | 0.051 (0.038) | |
| Year 2015 | –0.107*** (0.030) | 0.036 (0.038) | |
| Constant | 0.090 (0.367) | 0.580 (0.479) | |
| Observations | 27 682 | 24 057 | |
| R2 pseudo | 0.538 | 0.638 | |
Notes: Standard errors in parentheses, Reference categories for the dummies: Education (ref. Elementary), Family status (ref. Single), Year (ref. 2012).
p<0.1.
p<0.05.
p<0.01.
| Parameter | Value | Description / Source |
|---|---|---|
| α | 0.43 | Share of labour in CES production function estimate (Bencik, 2008) |
| σ | (0.48–1)/0.48 | Transformed elasticity of substitution (Bencik, 2008) |
| β | 0.99 | Discount factor |
| λ | 0.004 | Job separation rate (Labour Market Developments in Europe 2013, EC, 2013) |
| ξ | 0.8 | Match elasticity of the unemployed (Zeleznik, 2012 or Nemec, 2013) |
| μ | 0.05 | Scaling factor of matching function – efficiency of the process (calibrated) |
| c | 1.00 | Vacancy posting costs (calibrated) |
| r | 0.01 | Quarterly interest rate – price of capital (calibrated) |
| τK | 0.172 | Effective corporate income tax rate (calibrated) |
| SIC and HIC paid by | Inequality | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal effect | Fiscal revenues | PIT | employees | employers | self-empl | VAT | CIT | Fiscal expend | Post VAT income | GINI | Kak wani | |
| baseline, 2018 | 9 284 | 17 851 | 2 414 | 2 616 | 6 922 | 1 108 | 3 115 | 1 676 | 8 567 | 1 192 | 27.4 | 6.4 |
| PIT – 1 p.p. increase in the standard rate | 1.40 | 0.73 | 5.70 *** | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.25 *** | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0 49 *** | −0.12 | 0.24 |
| PIT – one tax rate | 4.11 | 2.14 | 16.76 *** | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.73 *** | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1 44 *** | −0.35 | 0.61 |
| PIT – decreasing tax allowances | 0.84 | 0.44 | 3 44 *** | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.16 ** | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0 29 *** | 0.00 | −0.30 |
| HIC – 1 p.p. increase in the rate paid by employers | 1.76 | 0.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.69 *** | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| HIC – 1 p.p. increase in the rate paid by employees | 1.52 | 0.79 | −1.50 *** | 7.12 *** | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.28 *** | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.53 *** | −0.08 | −0.05 |
| VAT – 1 p.p. increase in the standard rate | 1.34 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.99 *** | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| VAT – abolition of reduced rate | 0.94 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.80 *** | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| CIT – 1 p.p. increase in the rate | 0.84 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Reduction of family related transfers and credits | 1.52 | 0.24 | 210 *** | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 | −0.30 *** | 0.00 | −1 16*** | −0.56 *** | −0.20 | 0.16 |
| Reduction of material need benefits | 0.40 | −0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.12 * | 0.00 | −0.48 *** | −0.15 * | 0.16 | −0.03 |
Notes: First row (baseline) represents direct output from the simulation model; monetary variables in mil. euros.
Subsequent rows display changes in % from baseline values. In case of inequality measures the numbers express changes in percentage points.
SIC – social insurance contributions, HIC – health insurance contributions, PIT – personal income tax, VAT – value added tax, CIT – corporate income tax.
denote statistically significant difference between baseline and scenario at 10%, 5% and 1% levels, respectively. Standard errors are computed conventionally. Thus, the statistical significance reflects sampling error, rather than modelling uncertainty. Statistical significance is displayed for PIT, SIC&HIC, VAT, fiscal expenditures and disposable income. CIT is computed directly using the effective tax rate. Post-VAT income reflects households' disposable income minus VAT expenses.
| SIC and HIC paid by | Inequality | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal effect | Fiscal revenues | PIT | employees | employers | self-empl | VAT | CIT | Fiscal expend | Post VAT income | GINI | Kak wani | |
| baseline, 2018 | 9 284 | 17 851 | 2 414 | 2 616 | 6 922 | 1 108 | 3 115 | 1 676 | 8 567 | 1 192 | 27.4 | 6.4 |
| PIT – 1 p.p. increase in the standard rate | 1.23 | 0.64 | 5.51 *** | −0.12 | −0.12 | 0.00 | −0.28 *** | 0.06 | 0.00 | −0.55 *** | −0.14 | 0.24 |
| PIT – one tax rate | 3.58 | 1.86 | 16.20 *** | −0.34 *** | −0.34 *** | −0.22 | −0.85 *** | 0.17 | 0.00 | −1.65 *** | −0.41 | 0.68 |
| PIT – decreasing tax allowances | 0.81 | 0.43 | 3.45*** | −0.01 | −0.01 | 0.00 | −0.16 ** | 0.00 | 0.02 | −0.30 *** | 0.01 | −0.30 |
| HIC – 1 p.p. increase in the rate paid by employers | 1.76 | 0.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.69 *** | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| HIC – 1 p.p. increase in the rate paid by employees | 1.29 | 0.68 | −1 67 *** | 6.96 *** | −0.16 ** | 0.00 | −0.32 *** | 0.08 | 0.03 | −0.61 *** | −0.07 | −0.06 |
| VAT – 1 p.p. increase in the standard rate | 1.34 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.99 *** | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| VAT – abolition of reduced rate | 0.94 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.80 *** | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| CIT – 1 p.p. increase in the rate | 0.84 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Reduction of family related transfers and credits | 1.51 | 0.23 | 2 09 *** | −0.01 | −0.01 | 0.05 | −0.30 *** | 0.00 | −1.16*** | −0.56 *** | −0.21 | 0.15 |
| Reduction of material need benefits | 0.79 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 0.23 *** | 0.23 *** | 0.00 | −0.05 | −0.12 | −0.64 *** | −0.05 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
Notes: First row (baseline) represents direct output from the simulation model; monetary variables in mil. euros.
Subsequent rows display changes in % from baseline values. In case of inequality measures the numbers express changes in percentage points.
SIC – social insurance contributions, HIC – health insurance contributions, PIT – personal income tax, VAT – value added tax, CIT – corporate income tax.
denote statistically significant difference between baseline and scenario at 10%, 5% and 1% levels, respectively. Standard errors are computed conventionally. Thus, the statistical significance reflects sampling error, rather than modelling uncertainty. Statistical significance is displayed for PIT, SIC&HIC, VAT, fiscal expenditures and disposable income. CIT is computed directly using the effective tax rate. Post-VAT income reflects households' disposable income minus VAT expenses.
| SIC and HIC paid by | Inequality | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal effect | Fiscal revenues | PIT | employees | employers | self-empl | VAT | CIT | Fiscal expend | Post VAT income | GINI | Kak wani | |
| baseline, 2018 | 9 284 | 17 851 | 2 414 | 2 616 | 6 922 | 1 108 | 3 115 | 1 676 | 8 567 | 1 192 | 27.4 | 6.4 |
| PIT – 1 p.p. increase in the standard rate | 1.24 | 0.64 | 5.60 *** | −0.07 | −0.07 | 0.03 | −0.26 *** | −0.36 | 0.00 | −0.52 *** | −0.13 | 0.23 |
| PIT – one tax rate | 3.63 | 1.89 | 16.51 *** | −0.17 ** | −0.17 ** | −0.12 | −0.80 *** | −1.12 | 0.01 | −1.55 *** | −0.40 | 0.67 |
| PIT – decreasing tax allowances | 0.84 | 0.45 | 3.52 *** | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | −0.15 ** | −0.26 | 0.02 | −0 27 *** | 0.01 | −0.30 |
| HIC – 1 p.p. increase in the rate paid by employers | 1.10 | 0.57 | −0 87 *** | −0.53 *** | 215 *** | −0.47 | − 0.17 ** | −0.08 | 0.00 | −0 32*** | −0.05 | 0.04 |
| HIC – 1 p.p. increase in the rate paid by employees | 1.32 | 0.70 | −1 52*** | 7.06 *** | −0.06 | 0.03 | −0.30 *** | −0.59 | 0.03 | −0.55 *** | −0.07 | −0.06 |
| VAT – 1 p.p. increase in the standard rate | 1.35 | 0.70 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 4.00 *** | −0.05 | 0.00 | −0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| VAT – abolition of reduced rate | 0.94 | 0.49 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.80 *** | −0.02 | 0.00 | −0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| CIT – 1 p.p. increase in the rate | 0.76 | 0.40 | −0.14 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.03 | 4.96 | 0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | 0.00 |
| Reduction of family related transfers and credits | 1.48 | 0.21 | 2.02*** | −0.05 | −0.05 | 0.03 | −0.31 *** | 0.21 | −1 16*** | −0.58 *** | −0.21 | 0.16 |
| Reduction of material need benefits | 0.60 | 0.00 | −0.51 *** | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.34 | −0.15 ** | 1.79 | −0.64 *** | −0 24 *** | 0.00 | 0.04 |
Notes: First row (baseline) represents direct output from the simulation model; monetary variables in mil. euros.
Subsequent rows display changes in % from baseline values. In case of inequality measures the numbers express changes in percentage points.
SIC – social insurance contributions, HIC – health insurance contributions, PIT – personal income tax, VAT – value added tax, CIT – corporate income tax.
denote statistically significant difference between baseline and scenario at 10%, 5% and 1% levels, respectively. Standard errors are computed conventionally. Thus, the statistical significance reflects sampling error, rather than modelling uncertainty. Statistical significance is displayed for PIT, SIC&HIC, VAT, fiscal expenditures and disposable income. CIT is computed directly using the effective tax rate. Post-VAT income reflects households' disposable income minus VAT expenses.
| SIC and HIC paid by | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal effect | Fiscal revenues | PIT | employees | employers | self-empl | VAT | CIT | Fiscal expend | |
| re-scaled baseline, 2018; | 13 096 | 22 278 | 2 829 | 2 822 | 7 465 | 1 195 | 5 393 | 2 575 | 9 182 |
| PIT – 1 p.p. increase in the standard rate | 147.8 | 147.8 | 161.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −13.30 | 0.00 | 0.0 |
| PIT – one tax rate | 434.6 | 434.6 | 474.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −39.38 | 0.00 | 0.0 |
| PIT – decreasing tax allowances | 88.7 | 88.7 | 97.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −8.68 | 0.00 | 0.0 |
| HIC – 1 p.p. increase in the rate paid by employers | 166.4 | 166.4 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 200.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −34.6 | 0.0 |
| HIC – 1 p.p. increase in the rate paid by employees | 143.4 | 143.5 | −42.45 | 200.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −15.04 | 0.00 | 0.1 |
| VAT – 1 p.p. increase in the standard rate | 245.6 | 245.6 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 245.59 * | 0.00 | 0.0 |
| VAT – abolition of reduced rate | 172.2 | 172.2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 172.21 * | 0.00 | 0.0 |
| CIT – 1 p.p. increase in the rate | 119.8 | 119.8 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 119.8 | 0.0 |
| Reduction of family related transfers and credits | 136.8 | 44.1 | 59.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.64 | −16.06 | 0.00 | −92.7 |
| Reduction of material need benefits | 15.7 | −6.7 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −6.70 | 0.00 | −22.4 |
Notes: First row represents the re-scaled baseline values for fiscal variables; monetary variables in mil. euros. For VAT, baseline value is the estimated amount of VAT paid by households. Subsequent rows display difference in mil. euros compared to re-scaled baseline values.
SIC – social insurance contrib., HIC – health insurance contrib., PIT – personal income tax, VAT – value added tax, CIT – corporate income tax.
For scenarios involving the change of VAT rate the baseline is rescaled to the total amount in the economy (6 149.8 mil. euros).
| SIC and HIC paid by | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal effect | Fiscal revenues | PIT | employees | employers | self-empl | VAT | CIT | Fiscal expend | |
| re-scaled baseline, 2018 | 13 096 | 22 278 | 2 829 | 2 822 | 7 465 | 1 195 | 5 393 | 2 575 | 9 182 |
| PIT – 1 p.p. increase in the standard rate | 130.1 | 130.1 | 155.94 | −3.39 | −8.94 | −0.06 | −14.99 | 1.5 | 0.0 |
| PIT – one tax rate | 378.9 | 379.1 | 458.26 | −9.57 | −25.31 | −2.68 | −45.98 | 4.4 | 0.2 |
| PIT – decreasing tax allowances | 86.8 | 87.8 | 97.51 | −0.28 | −0.74 | 0.00 | −8.87 | 0.1 | 0.9 |
| HIC – 1 p.p. increase in the rate paid by employers | 166.4 | 166.4 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 200.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −34.6 | 0.0 |
| HIC – 1 p.p. increase in the rate paid by employees | 120.7 | 121.9 | −47.32 | 196.26 | −11.58 | −0.03 | −17.45 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| VAT – 1 p.p. increase in the standard rate | 245.6 | 245.6 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 245.59 * | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| VAT – abolition of reduced rate | 172.2 | 172.2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 172.21 * | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| CIT – 1 p.p. increase in the rate | 119.8 | 119.8 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 119.8 | 0.0 |
| Reduction of family related transfers and credits | 135.3 | 42.6 | 59.04 | −0.28 | −0.74 | 0.63 | −16.20 | 0.1 | −92.7 |
| Reduction of material need benefits | 48.6 | 18.3 | 0.32 | 6.44 | 17.33 | 0.00 | −2.83 | −3.0 | −30.3 |
Notes: First row represents the re-scaled baseline values for fiscal variables; monetary variables in mil. euros. For VAT, baseline value is the estimated amount of VAT paid by households. Subsequent rows display difference in mil. euros compared to re-scaled baseline values.
SIC – social insurance contrib., HIC – health insurance contrib., PIT – personal income tax, VAT – value added tax, CIT – corporate income tax.
For scenarios involving the change of VAT rate the baseline is rescaled to the total amount in the economy (6 149.8 mil. euros).
| SIC and HIC paid by | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal effect | Fiscal revenues | PIT | employees | employers | self-empl | VAT | CIT | Fiscal expend | |
| re-scaled baseline, 2018 | 13 096 | 22 278 | 2 829 | 2 822 | 7 465 | 1 195 | 5 393 | 2 575 | 9 182 |
| PIT – 1 p.p. increase in the standard rate | 128.5 | 128.5 | 158.53 | −1.90 | −5.04 | 0.31 | −14.09 | −9.3 | 0.0 |
| PIT – one tax rate | 375.7 | 375.9 | 467.12 | −4.91 | −13.01 | −1.43 | −43.02 | −28.8 | 0.2 |
| PIT – decreasing tax allowances | 88.2 | 89.1 | 99.69 | 1.02 | 2.69 | 0.35 | −8.07 | −6.6 | 0.9 |
| HIC – 1 p.p. increase in the rate paid by employers | 103.8 | 103.9 | −24.65 | −14.94 | 160.34 | −5.67 | −9.03 | −2.2 | 0.1 |
| HIC – 1 p.p. increase in the rate paid by employees | 119.3 | 120.7 | −43.00 | 199.11 | −4.65 | 0.31 | −15.96 | −15.1 | 1.4 |
| VAT – 1 p.p. increase in the standard rate | 246.0 | 246.0 | 0.46 | 0.27 | 0.72 | 0.08 | 245.80 * | −1.3 | 0.0 |
| VAT – abolition of reduced rate | 172.4 | 172.4 | 0.17 | 0.10 | 0.28 | 0.04 | 172.28 * | −0.5 | 0.0 |
| CIT – 1 p.p. increase in the rate | 113.2 | 113.3 | −3.90 | −2.35 | −6.19 | −0.62 | −1.44 | 127.8 | 0.0 |
| Reduction of family related transfers and credits | 133.8 | 41.1 | 57.26 | −1.35 | −3.56 | 0.35 | −16.86 | 5.3 | −92.7 |
| Reduction of material need benefits | 40.7 | 10.4 | −14.47 | −2.58 | −6.39 | −4.09 | −8.23 | 46.2 | −30.3 |
Notes: First row represents the re-scaled baseline values for fiscal variables; monetary variables in mil. euros. For VAT, baseline value is the estimated amount of VAT paid by households. Subsequent rows display difference in mil. euros compared to re-scaled baseline values.
SIC – social insurance contrib., HIC – health insurance contrib., PIT – personal income tax, VAT – value added tax, CIT – corporate income tax.
For scenarios involving the change of VAT rate the baseline is rescaled to the total amount in the economy (6 149.8 mil. euros).
| All | Age | Parent with child up to 3 years | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25-50, | 25-50, | ||||||
| 15-24 | female | male | 50+ | Female | Male | ||
| baseline probabilities, 2018 | 64.06 | 35.13 | 74.69 | 92.88 | 50.17 | 26.56 | 97.24 |
| PIT – 1 p.p. increase in the standard rate | −0.014 | −0.007 | −0.008 | −0.006 | −0.025 | −0.017 | −0.002 |
| PIT – one tax rate | −0.043 | −0.024 | −0.024 | −0.020 | −0.077 | −0.051 | −0.007 |
| PIT – decreasing tax allowances | −0.012 | −0.022 | −0.014 | −0.007 | −0.010 | −0.020 | −0.003 |
| HIC – 1 p.p. increase in the rate paid by employers | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HIC – 1 p.p. increase in the rate paid by employees | −0.027 | −0.035 | −0.036 | −0.013 | −0.027 | −0.063 | −0.007 |
| VAT – 1 p.p. increase in the standard rate | −0.002 | −0.004 | −0.004 | 0.001 | −0.002 | −0.010 | 0.000 |
| VAT – abolition of reduced rate | −0.001 | −0.002 | −0.003 | 0.002 | −0.001 | −0.006 | 0.000 |
| CIT – 1 p.p. increase in the rate | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Reduction of family related transfers and credits | 0.008 | 0.021 | 0.016 | 0.005 | 0.001 | 0.073 | 0.014 |
| Reduction of material need benefits | 0.093 | 0.086 | 0.176 | 0.064 | 0.065 | 0.107 | 0.051 |
Notes: First row represents probabilities of being economically active simulated by the model. Subsequent rows express the changes in percentage points from baseline probabilities for different population groups.
| All | Education (age 25-50) | Distribution effects (income quintiles) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prim. | Sec. | Univ. | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q5 | ||
| baseline probabilities, 2018 | 64.06 | 69.48 | 85.77 | 83.84 | 81.34 | 87.99 | 92.45 | 95.84 | 96.63 |
| PIT – 1 p.p. increase in the standard rate | −0.014 | −0.003 | −0.006 | −0.010 | 0.005 | −0.004 | −0.009 | −0.010 | −0.009 |
| PIT – one tax rate | −0.043 | −0.011 | −0.019 | −0.029 | 0.015 | −0.012 | −0.026 | −0.031 | −0.028 |
| PIT – decreasing tax allowances | −0.012 | −0.006 | −0.012 | −0.008 | −0.015 | −0.025 | −0.011 | −0.005 | −0.002 |
| HIC – 1 p.p. increase in the rate paid by employers | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HIC – 1 p.p. increase in the rate paid by employees | −0.027 | −0.081 | −0.020 | −0.019 | −0.014 | −0.015 | −0.017 | −0.011 | −0.007 |
| VAT – 1 p.p. increase in the standard rate | −0.002 | 0.000 | −0.001 | −0.003 | −0.005 | −0.005 | −0.003 | −0.002 | −0.001 |
| VAT – abolition of reduced rate | −0.001 | 0.002 | 0.000 | −0.001 | −0.002 | −0.003 | −0.001 | −0.001 | 0.000 |
| CIT – 1 p.p. increase in the rate | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Reduction of family related transfers and credits | 0.008 | 0.000 | 0.008 | 0.017 | 0.006 | 0.006 | 0.009 | 0.008 | 0.029 |
| Reduction of material need benefits | 0.093 | 0.461 | 0.108 | 0.056 | 0.361 | 0.102 | 0.047 | 0.033 | 0.026 |
Notes: First row represents probabilities of being economically active simulated by the model. Subsequent rows express the changes in percentage points from baseline probabilities for different population groups.
| employment (PP) | work intensity (P.P.) | eff. labour (P.P.) | gross wages (%) | net wages (%) | outPut (%) | unemP. rate (P.P.) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT – 1 p.p. increase in the standard rate | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.08 | 0.05 | −0.39 | −0.08 | 0.02 |
| PIT – one tax rate | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.22 | 0.14 | −1.18 | −0.23 | 0.06 |
| PIT – decreasing tax allowances | −0.02 | 0.00 | −0.01 | 0.04 | −0.32 | −0.01 | 0.02 |
| HIC – 1 p.p. increase in the rate paid by employers | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.45 | −0.38 | −0.03 | 0.00 |
| HIC – 1 p.p. increase in the rate paid by employees | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.08 | 0.08 | −0.48 | −0.08 | 0.03 |
| VAT – 1 p.p. increase in the standard rate | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| VAT – abolition of reduced rate | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| CIT – 1 p.p. increase in the rate | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Reduction of family related transfers and credits | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.04 | 0.00 |
| Reduction of material need benefits | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.03 | −0.16 | 0.00 | −0.01 |
Notes: employment – employment rate, work intensity – intensive margin response, effective labour – total labour supply, gross wages – gross wages of working population, net wages – gross wages of working population net of social and health insurance contributions, output – GDP.
| capital (%) | SIC&HIC paid by employers (p.p.) | CIT (%) | gross profit (%) | net profit (%) | unit labour costs (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT – 1 p.p. increase in the standard rate | −0.08 | 0.00 | −0.36 | −0.36 | −0.36 | 0.04 |
| PIT – one tax rate | −0.23 | 0.01 | −1.12 | −1.12 | −1.12 | 0.13 |
| PIT – decreasing tax allowances | −0.01 | 0.00 | −0.26 | −0.26 | −0.26 | 0.04 |
| HIC – 1 p.p. increase in the rate paid by employers | −0.03 | 0.58 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.08 | 0.01 |
| HIC – 1 p.p. increase in the rate paid by employees | −0.08 | 0.00 | −0.59 | −0.59 | −0.59 | 0.07 |
| VAT – 1 p.p. increase in the standard rate | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.06 | 0.01 |
| VAT – abolition of reduced rate | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.05 | 0.01 |
| CIT – 1 p.p. increase in the rate | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.02 | 0.00 |
| Reduction of family related transfers and credits | −0.50 | 0.00 | 4.96 | 0.30 | −0.67 | −0.03 |
| Reduction of material need benefits | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.21 | −0.03 |
Notes: capital – capital stock, CIT – corporate income tax, gross profit – gross profit of firms, net profit – profit of firms net of taxes, unit labour costs – total labour costs per one unit of output, SIC – social insurance contributions, HIC – health insurance contributions, CIT – corporate income tax.
