1. Methodology
  2. Health
  3. dynamic microsimulation
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Introducing CASCADEPOP: an open-source sociodemographic simulation platform for US health policy appraisal

  1. Alan Brennan  Is a corresponding author
  2. Charlotte Buckley
  3. Tuong Manh Vu
  4. Charlotte Probst
  5. Alexandra Nielsen
  6. Hao Bai
  7. Thomas Broomhead
  8. Thomas Greenfield
  9. William Kerr
  10. Petra S Meier
  11. Jürgen Rehm
  12. Paul Shuper
  13. Mark Strong
  14. Robin C Purshouse
  1. School of Health and Related Research, UK
  2. Department of Automatic Control and Systems Engineering, UK
  3. Institute for Mental Health Policy Research, Canada
  4. Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Universitätsklinikum Heidelberg, Germany
  5. Alcohol Research Group (ARG), USA
  6. School of Clinical Dentistry, UK
  7. Dalla Lana School of Public Health and Department of Psychiatry, Canada
  8. Department of International Health Projects, Russian Federation
Research article
Volume 13(2) Summer 2020
Cite this article as: A. Brennan, C. Buckley, T. Manh Vu, C. Probst, A. Nielsen, H. Bai, T. Broomhead, T. Greenfield, W. Kerr, P. S Meier, J. Rehm, P. Shuper, M. Strong, R. C Purshouse; 2020; Introducing CASCADEPOP: an open-source sociodemographic simulation platform for US health policy appraisal; International Journal of Microsimulation; 13(2); 21-60. doi: 10.34196/ijm.00217
4 figures and 24 tables

Figures

Figure 1
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Schematic describing the steps taken to generate the baseline and migrant and 12-year-old populations over time, and the steps taken during each year of the microsimulation over time.
Figure 2
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Validation of Micro-synthesis for the USA 1980:- modelled synthetic population compared to observed 1980 Census data for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, social roles status and income.
Figure 3
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Validation over 30 years: Comparison of microsimulation population with observed US Census data by sex, age and race/ethnicity for the USA in 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2010.
Figure 4
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Validation over 30 years. Comparison of microsimulation population social roles with observed US Census data (employment and marriage) and PSID data (parenting) for the United States 1980-2010

Tables

Table 1
Exemplar transition matrix for the period 1993-1999 for females aged 27.
_ _ _ _ _ P _ M _ E _ _ _ M P E M _ E _ P E M P
1993-1999 _ _ _ 0.649 0.025 0.017 0.280 0.003 0.014 0.010 0.001
1993-1999 _ _ P 0.013 0.605 <0.001 0.008 0.054 <0.001 0.298 0.021
1993-1999 _ M _ 0.025 0.001 0.537 0.012 0.118 0.261 0.001 0.045
1993-1999 E _ _ 0.087 0.003 0.004 0.816 0.001 0.059 0.026 0.005
1993-1999 _ M P <0.001 0.010 0.005 <0.001 0.677 0.003 0.007 0.297
1993-1999 E M _ 0.004 <0.001 0.079 0.035 0.013 0.757 0.002 0.110
1993-1999 E _ P 0.003 0.091 <0.001 0.030 0.006 0.001 0.817 0.051
1993-1999 E M P <0.001 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.083 0.013 0.025 0.876
Table 2
Validation of Micro-synthesis for the USA 1980: modelled synthetic population compared to observed 1980 Census data for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, social roles status and income.
Female Male
Census Micro-synthesis Difference Census Micro-synthesis Difference
Age category
 12-13 350229 350205 -0.007% 363772 363800 0.009%
 14-17 791699 791646 -0.007% 819431 819457 0.003%
 18-19 428371 428374 0.001% 416172 416174 0.001%
 20-22 643066 643061 -0.001% 614279 614288 0.001%
 23-24 417044 417041 -0.001% 404086 404082 -0.001%
 25-28 788183 788182 0.001% 764900 764913 0.002%
 29-30 377449 377447 0.001% 366634 366636 0.001%
 31-34 698488 698489 0.001% 673779 673785 0.001%
 35-39 708491 708494 0.001% 678687 678684 -0.001%
 40-44 594513 594520 0.001% 565942 565942 -0.001%
 45-49 568258 568258 0.001% 534878 534884 0.001%
 50-59 1216357 1216358 0.001% 1101383 1101380 -0.001%
 60-80 1722769 1722765 0.001% 1328453 1328450 -0.001%
Race
 Non-hispanic black 1057394 1057385 -0.001% 884885 884883 0.001%
 Hispanic 538344 538341 0.001% 519074 519080 0.001%
 Non-hispanic other 217081 217077 -0.002% 205423 205428 0.002%
 Non-hispanic white 7492101 7492037 -0.001% 7023014 7023084 0.001%
Education
 High school graduate 6737070 6736982 -0.001% 5927517 5927574 0.001%
 Some college 1565697 1565708 0.001% 1361130 1361140 0.001%
 College + 1002151 1002150 -0.001% 1343748 1343761 0.001%
Social roles
 Employed 4172331 4172328 0.001% 5688374 5688393 0.001%
 Unemployed 5132587 5132512 -0.001% 2944021 2944082 0.002%
 Married 4998998 4999000 0.000% 5008429 5008440 0.000%
 Unmarried 4305920 4305840 -0.002% 3623966 3624035 0.002%
 Not parent 5854373 5854284 -0.002% 5510957 5511025 0.001%
 Parent 3450545 3450556 0.000% 3121438 3121450 0.000%
Income category
 $0-$6999 1162186 1162200 0.001% 595240 595247 0.001%
 $7000-$9999 728592 728572 -0.003% 525864 525871 0.001%
 $10000-$14999 1170164 1170154 -0.001% 928740 928736 0.000%
 $15000-$19999 1032560 1032568 0.001% 1045736 1045737 0.000%
 $20000-$24999 1054906 1054900 -0.001% 1100713 1100716 0.000%
 $25000-$29999 1452311 1452312 0.000% 1570514 1570508 0.000%
 $30000+ 1562268 1562283 0.001% 1682380 1682403 0.001%
 youth-no income 1141928 1141851 -0.007% 1183202 1183257 0.005%
Table 3
Population counts of individuals holding social roles from the Census compared to the microsimulation.
California Minnesota New York Tennessee Texas US
Social Role Combination
 _ _ _ 399,495 65,449 333,353 77,874 220,355 3,864,726
 _ _ P 60,378 5,848 53,551 10,807 29,980 522,189
 _ M _ 209,202 42,456 189,861 54,541 122,314 2,439,605
 E _ _ 335,976 53,877 228,962 49,159 170,089 2,782,588
 _ M P 162,057 22,544 111,788 32,301 102,662 1,484,920
 E M _ 201,329 42,494 142,986 43,569 141,361 2,119,030
 E _ P 123,002 16,391 97,333 18,978 55,532 1,026,699
 E M P 430,076 76,084 277,627 82,297 279,061 3,999,107
% difference versus observed data
 Married 0.0001% 0.0008% 0.0003% 0.0024% 0.0009% 0.0001%
 Not married 0.0001% 0.0010% 0.0003% 0.0032% 0.0012% 0.0001%
 Employed 0.0001% 0.0013% 0.0002% 0.0016% 0.0003% 0.0000%
 Not Employed 0.0001% 0.0018% 0.0002% 0.0017% 0.0004% 0.0000%
 Parent 0.0003% 0.0017% 0.0004% 0.0044% 0.0008% 0.0001%
 Not Parent 0.0002% 0.0010% 0.0003% 0.0028% 0.0005% 0.0001%

  1. Notes: each possible combination using the abbreviations E – employed, M – married, P – parent, _ - not

Table 4
Implied baseline drinking prevalence, quantity, frequency and heavy drinking for each of the modelled geographies compared to US alcohol use data (NSDUH) with 95% CI.
State Alcohol use prevalence Mean alcohol use quantity (grams per day) Mean alcohol use frequency (days per month) Mean 5+ drink days per month
California 72.17% 8.22 7.04 0.95
Minnesota 72.14% 8.38 7.07 0.98
New York 70.01% 8.09 6.94 0.96
Tennessee 68.88% 8.16 6.91 0.99
Texas 71.58% 7.90 6.79 0.94
USA 70.33% 8.18 6.97 0.97
NSDUH, 2019 data 72.96% [70.58, 75.33] 8.44 [7.75, 9.13] 6.88 [6.44, 7.31] 0.88 [0.77, 0.99]
Table 5
Validation over 30 years: Comparison of microsimulation population with observed US Census data by sex, age and race/ethnicity for the USA in 1990, 2000 and 2010.
1990 2000 2010
Census Microsimulation Difference Census Microsimulation Difference Census Microsimulation Difference
Non-hispanic black 2242309 2247300 0.22% 2626753 2640870 0.54% 3032982 3045380 0.41%
Hispanic 1675274 1674900 -0.02% 2635389 2652050 0.63% 4119840 4118710 -0.03%
Non-hispanic other 707779 708070 0.04% 1377643 1394650 1.23% 1861652 1865980 0.23%
Non-hispanic white 15285788 15293890 0.05% 15893199 15950070 0.36% 16287723 16328920 0.25%
Female 10204297 10217040 0.12% 11450460 11505330 0.48% 12828100 12838960 0.08%
Male 9706853 9707120 0.00% 11082530 11132310 0.45% 12474100 12520030 0.37%
12-17 2004212 2012300 0.40% 2417936 2426610 0.36% 2567835 2570450 0.10%
18-24 2673777 2676540 0.10% 2714345 2724760 0.38% 3104722 3121590 0.54%
25-29 2131305 2131710 0.02% 1938134 1948060 0.51% 2134600 2151870 0.81%
30-34 2186289 2188090 0.08% 2051039 2063780 0.62% 2021027 2031350 0.51%
35-39 1996312 1993430 -0.14% 2270666 2276720 0.27% 2042091 2051510 0.46%
40-44 1761579 1760510 -0.06% 2244186 2260780 0.74% 2113322 2118880 0.26%
45-49 1387257 1387940 0.05% 2009240 2020340 0.55% 2295657 2290950 -0.21%
50-59 2188227 2190440 0.10% 3105479 3112160 0.22% 4242635 4249330 0.16%
60-80 3582194 3583200 0.03% 3781961 3804430 0.59% 4780309 4773060 -0.15%
Table 6
Validation over 30 years. Comparison of microsimulation population social roles with observed US Census data (employment and marriage) and PSID data (parenting) for the United States 1980-2010
Female Male
% 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010
E only 16.10 20.86 22.52 21.07 21.69 23.91
E + M 14.71 16.78 17.21 20.93 23.40 22.63
E + P 5.09 5.89 5.04 6.71 6.03 5.37
E + M + P 20.03 18.05 15.26 25.81 23.08 19.01
Total Employed 55.93 61.57 60.02 74.52 74.20 70.92
Employed Census 53.27 63.06 54.89 69.79 76.43 65.16
Employed PSID 55.51 57.57 55.22 71.64 73.14 63.89
Difference (Microsimulation and Census) 2.66 -1.49 5.13 4.73 -2.24 5.76
M only 15.37 13.83 13.64 13.45 11.47 12.11
M + E 14.71 16.78 17.21 20.93 23.40 22.63
M + P 7.60 5.86 5.11 3.66 3.81 3.43
M + E + P 20.03 18.05 15.26 25.81 23.08 19.01
Total Married 57.71 54.51 51.22 63.85 61.76 57.17
Married Census 51.18 47.58 46.45 58.89 53.23 50.59
Married PSID 62.51 59.97 56.67 68.55 66.75 61.61
Difference (Microsimulation and census) 6.53 6.93 4.77 4.97 8.52 6.58
P only 3.36 2.20 2.55 1.69 1.25 1.12
P + E 5.09 5.89 5.04 6.71 6.03 5.37
P + M 7.60 5.86 5.11 3.66 3.81 3.43
P + E + M 20.03 18.05 15.26 25.81 23.08 19.01
Total Parent 36.08 31.99 27.96 37.87 34.17 28.93
Parent PSID 36.24 33.87 28.16 34.29 33.27 27.07
Difference (Microsimulation and PSID) -0.16 -1.88 -0.20 3.58 0.90 1.86
Table A1
Census race/ethnicity categories and synthetic population re-coded race/ethnicity categories
Micro-synthetic population category Census 1980 race categorizations
White (non-hispanic) Not Spanish origin: white
Black (non-hispanic) Not Spanish origin: black
Other (non-hispanic) Not Spanish origin: American Indian, Eskimo, Aleut, Asian, Pacific Islander
Hispanic origin Spanish Origin
Table A2
Census and micro-synthesis employment categories
Micro-synthetic population category Census 1980 employment categorizations
Employed Labor force: employed
Unemployed Labor force: unemployed, not in labor force
Table B3
Exemplar Census constraints for California in 1980
Black 12-13
Female		 Black 12-13
Male		 Black 14-17
Female		 Black 14-17
Male
California 33005 33216 74293 73992
Table B4
Example of NSDUH individuals re-coded for IPF procedure
Black 12-13
Female		 Black 12-13
Male		 Black 14-17
Female		 Black 14-17
Male
NSDUH
Individual 1		 1 0 0 0
NSDUH
Individual 2		 0 0 1 0
Table B5
Weights for three exemplar NSDUH individuals for California
NSDUH individual California weight
Individual 1 5591.98
Individual 2 2916.01
Individual 3 3010.67
Table D1
Transition count matrix; number of single transitions between social roles states available in PSID
To
Year period From _ _ _ _ _ P _ M _ E _ _ _ M P E M _ E _ P E M P
1979-1983 _ _ _ 5660 73 98 1670 2 117 32 2
1979-1983 _ _ P 50 984 1 19 70 0 357 7
1979-1983 _ M _ 187 0 9778 15 279 1040 0 114
1979-1983 E _ _ 1327 63 88 9229 4 683 188 33
1979-1983 _ M P 10 63 324 16 7123 125 35 2456
1979-1983 E M _ 25 13 1899 278 298 12523 25 987
1979-1983 E _ P 46 326 0 237 15 22 2256 110
1979-1983 E M P 8 14 123 91 1983 1127 237 22725
1984-1992 _ _ _ 7916 115 121 1924 20 142 87 4
1984-1992 _ _ P 91 1253 3 22 75 4 523 34
1984-1992 _ M _ 363 3 15513 86 332 1929 2 225
1984-1992 E _ _ 1954 66 108 14990 11 1027 418 58
1984-1992 _ M P 8 66 394 9 5680 134 37 3028
1984-1992 E M _ 67 2 2659 340 183 16588 14 1383
1984-1992 E _ P 35 562 4 300 36 19 3261 173
1984-1992 E M P 2 33 177 50 2663 1811 257 27641
1993-1999 _ _ _ 9464 86 98 1699 11 117 52 22
1993-1999 _ _ P 104 988 3 55 58 1 389 43
1993-1999 _ M _ 437 1 13984 41 181 1200 12 75
1993-1999 E _ _ 1561 74 95 13410 18 882 338 119
1993-1999 _ M P 7 44 291 15 3979 85 22 1661
1993-1999 E M _ 64 0 2096 438 180 18679 24 1109
1993-1999 E _ P 68 298 0 552 36 24 3600 187
1993-1999 E M P 8 37 97 104 1363 1560 300 21779
2000-2007 _ _ _ 8660 136 157 2108 54 197 131 139
2000-2007 _ _ P 257 624 14 114 68 2 332 54
2000-2007 _ M _ 1010 31 11729 96 219 1398 31 169
2000-2007 E _ _ 2119 122 159 12412 121 1258 580 660
2000-2007 _ M P 94 74 496 78 2709 329 97 1634
2000-2007 E M _ 227 15 3320 738 393 15780 59 1901
2000-2007 E _ P 138 311 23 823 52 160 2348 344
2000-2007 E M P 97 40 512 422 1339 3549 386 16740
2008-2015 _ _ _ 5660 73 98 1670 2 117 32 2
2008-2015 _ _ P 50 984 1 19 70 0 357 7
2008-2015 _ M _ 187 0 9778 15 279 1040 0 114
2008-2015 E _ _ 1327 63 88 9229 4 683 188 33
2008-2015 _ M P 10 63 324 16 7123 125 35 2456
2008-2015 E M _ 25 13 1899 278 298 12523 25 987
2008-2015 E _ P 46 326 0 237 15 22 2256 110
2008-2015 E M P 8 14 123 91 1983 1127 237 22725
Table D2
Transition intensities with hazard ratios (95% CI). Baselines are with covariates set to 01
Transition Baseline Sex (male=1) Age Age squared
1979-1983 _ _ _ > _ _ _ -0.192 (-0.207, -0.178) - - -
1979-1983 _ _ _ > _ _ P 0.005 (0.004, 0.007) 1.373 (1.231, 1.531) 3.567 (1.912, 6.654) 0.034 (0.015, 0.081)
1979-1983 _ _ _ > _ M _ 0.015 (0.012, 0.019) 0.944 (0.840, 1.062) 0.703 (0.430, 1.149) 0.585 (0.307, 1.113)
1979-1983 _ _ _ > E _ _ 0.172 (0.158, 0.186) 1.696 (1.584, 1.815) 2.452 (1.942, 3.095) 0.114 (0.085, 0.151)
1979-1983 _ _ P > _ _ _ 0.053 (0.040, 0.072) 0.963 (0.867, 1.070) 17.507 (9.658, 31.733) 0.193 (0.100, 0.373)
1979-1983 _ _ P > _ _ P -0.227 (-0.252, -0.204) - - -
1979-1983 _ _ P > _ M P 0.029 (0.023, 0.038) 0.944 (0.840, 1.062) 0.703 (0.430, 1.149) 0.585 (0.307, 1.113)
1979-1983 _ _ P > E _ P 0.144 (0.129, 0.162) 1.696 (1.584, 1.815) 2.452 (1.942, 3.095) 0.114 (0.085, 0.151)
1979-1983 _ M _ > _ _ _ 0.022 (0.018, 0.026) 0.531 (0.463, 0.608) 0.068 (0.046, 0.101) 14.837 (9.459, 23.271)
1979-1983 _ M _ > _ M _ -0.231 (-0.244, -0.218) - - -
1979-1983 _ M _ > _ M P 0.040 (0.035, 0.047) 0.802 (0.672, 0.957) 0.018 (0.011, 0.030) 14.050 (8.195, 24.089)
1979-1983 _ M _ > E M _ 0.169 (0.158, 0.180) 1.696 (1.584, 1.815) 2.452 (1.942, 3.095) 0.114 (0.085, 0.151)
1979-1983 E _ _ > _ _ _ 0.220 (0.207, 0.234) 0.544 (0.514, 0.575) 0.024 (0.020, 0.028) 93.597 (75.799, 115.573)
1979-1983 E _ _ > E _ _ -0.259 (-0.274, -0.245) - - -
1979-1983 E _ _ > E M _ 0.036 (0.031, 0.042) 0.944 (0.840, 1.062) 0.703 (0.430, 1.149) 0.585 (0.307, 1.113)
1979-1983 E _ _ > E _ P 0.003 (0.003, 0.004) 1.373 (1.231, 1.531) 3.567 (1.912, 6.654) 0.034 (0.015, 0.081)
1979-1983 _ M P > _ _ P 0.009 (0.007, 0.012) 0.531 (0.463, 0.608) 0.068 (0.046, 0.101) 14.837 (9.459, 23.271)
1979-1983 _ M P > _ M _ 0.049 (0.043, 0.055) 1.247 (1.044, 1.488) 55.195 (33.654, 90.524) 0.071 (0.042, 0.122)
1979-1983 _ M P > _ M P -0.195 (-0.206, -0.185) - - -
1979-1983 _ M P > E M P 0.137 (0.129, 0.146) 1.696 (1.584, 1.815) 2.452 (1.942, 3.095) 0.114 (0.085, 0.151)
1979-1983 E M _ > _ M _ 0.280 (0.266, 0.294) 0.544 (0.514, 0.575) 0.024 (0.020, 0.028) 93.597 (75.799, 115.573)
1979-1983 E M _ > E _ _ 0.033 (0.029, 0.038) 0.531 (0.463, 0.608) 0.068 (0.046, 0.101) 14.837 (9.459, 23.271)
1979-1983 E M _ > E M _ -0.337 (-0.352, -0.321) - - -
1979-1983 E M _ > E M P 0.024 (0.020, 0.029) 1.373 (1.231, 1.531) 3.567 (1.912, 6.654) 0.034 (0.015, 0.081)
1979-1983 E _ P > _ _ P 0.308 (0.275, 0.345) 0.544 (0.514, 0.575) 0.024 (0.020, 0.028) 93.597 (75.799, 115.573)
1979-1983 E _ P > E _ _ 0.167 (0.144, 0.193) 0.963 (0.867, 1.070) 17.507 (9.658, 31.733) 0.193 (0.100, 0.373)
1979-1983 E _ P > E _ P -0.500 (-0.544, -0.460) - - -
1979-1983 E _ P > E M P 0.025 (0.020, 0.031) 0.944 (0.840, 1.062) 0.703 (0.430, 1.149) 0.585 (0.307, 1.113)
1979-1983 E M P > _ M P 0.254 (0.240, 0.270) 0.544 (0.514, 0.575) 0.024 (0.020, 0.028) 93.597 (75.799, 115.573)
1979-1983 E M P > E M _ 0.070 (0.062, 0.080) 0.963 (0.867, 1.070) 17.507 (9.658, 31.733) 0.193 (0.100, 0.373)
1979-1983 E M P > E _ P 0.020 (0.017, 0.023) 0.531 (0.463, 0.608) 0.068 (0.046, 0.101) 14.837 (9.459, 23.271)
1979-1983 E M P > E M P -0.345 (-0.363, -0.327) - - -
1984-1992 _ _ _ > _ _ _ -0.222 (-0.236 , -0.209) - - -
1984-1992 _ _ _ > _ _ P 0.010 (0.008, 0.012) 1.315 (1.204, 1.436) 10.677 (6.477, 17.601) 0.010 (0.005, 0.020)
1984-1992 _ _ _ > _ M _ 0.022 (0.019, 0.027) 0.896 (0.813, 0.988) 1.339 (0.900, 1.993) 0.248 (0.146, 0.422)
1984-1992 _ _ _ > E _ _ 0.190 (0.178, 0.204) 1.972 (1.869, 2.080) 3.950 (3.253, 4.797) 0.071 (0.056, 0.089)
1984-1992 _ _ P > _ _ _ 0.062 (0.050, 0.078) 1.057 (0.970, 1.152) 22.273 (12.836, 38.648) 0.192 (0.104, 0.352)
1984-1992 _ _ P > _ _ P -0.259 (-0.281, -0.238) - - -
1984-1992 _ _ P > _ M P 0.029 (0.023, 0.037) 0.896 (0.813, 0.988) 1.339 (0.900 1.993) 0.248 (0.146, 0.422)
1984-1992 _ _ P > E _ P 0.167 (0.152, 0.184) 1.972 (1.869, 2.080) 3.950 (3.253, 4.797) 0.071 (0.056, 0.089)
1984-1992 _ M _ > _ _ _ 0.031 (0.027, 0.035) 0.557 (0.496, 0.626) 0.086 (0.063, 0.117) 10.938 (7.845, 15.252)
1984-1992 _ M _ > _ M _ -0.272 (-0.285, -0.260) - - -
1984-1992 _ M _ > _ M P 0.037 (0.033, 0.043) 1.132 (0.972, 1.317) 0.010 (0.006, 0.015) 23.864 (15.108, 37.697)
1984-1992 _ M _ > E M _ 0.205 (0.194, 0.216) 1.972 (1.869, 2.080) 3.950 (3.253, 4.797) 0.071 (0.056, 0.089)
1984-1992 E _ _ > _ _ _ 0.217 (0.206, 0.229) 0.695 (0.662, 0.729) 0.057 (0.047, 0.068) 36.814 (29.972, 45.219)
1984-1992 E _ _ > E _ _ -0.253 (-0.265, -0.241) - - -
1984-1992 E _ _ > E M _ 0.031 (0.027, 0.036) 0.896 (0.813, 0.988) 1.339 (0.900, 1.993) 0.248 (0.146, 0.422)
1984-1992 E _ _ > E _ P 0.005 (0.004, 0.006) 1.315 (1.204, 1.436) 10.677 (6.477, 17.601) 0.010 (0.005, 0.020)
1984-1992 _ M P > _ _ P 0.012 (0.009, 0.015) 0.557 (0.496, 0.626) 0.086 (0.063, 0.117) 10.938 (7.845, 15.252)
1984-1992 _ M P > _ M _ 0.058 (0.051, 0.065) 0.884 (0.759, 1.029) 101.940 (66.119, 157.168) 0.042 (0.027, 0.066)
1984-1992 _ M P > _ M P -0.263 (-0.276, -0.251) - - -
1984-1992 _ M P > E M P 0.194 (0.184, 0.205) 1.972 (1.869, 2.080) 3.950 (3.253, 4.797) 0.071 (0.056, 0.089)
1984-1992 E M _ > _ M _ 0.271 (0.259, 0.284) 0.695 (0.662, 0.729) 0.057 (0.047, 0.068) 36.814 (29.972, 45.219)
1984-1992 E M _ > E _ _ 0.031 (0.028, 0.035) 0.557 (0.496, 0.626) 0.086 (0.063, 0.117) 10.938 (7.845, 15.252)
1984-1992 E M _ > E M _ -0.327 (-0.340, -0.314) - - -
1984-1992 E M _ > E M P 0.024 (0.021, 0.028) 1.315 (1.204, 1.436) 10.677 (6.477, 17.601) 0.010 (0.005, 0.020)
1984-1992 E _ P > _ _ P 0.349 (0.319, 0.382) 0.695 (0.662, 0.729) 0.057 (0.047, 0.068) 36.814 (29.972, 45.219)
1984-1992 E _ P > E _ _ 0.144 (0.125, 0.166) 1.057 (0.970, 1.152) 22.273 (12.836, 38.648) 0.192 (0.104, 0.352)
1984-1992 E _ P > E _ P -0.516 (-0.555, -0.481) - - -
1984-1992 E _ P > E M P 0.024 (0.020, 0.029) 0.896 (0.813, 0.988) 1.339 (0.900, 1.993) 0.248 (0.146, 0.422)
1984-1992 E M P > _ M P 0.253 (0.240, 0.267) 0.695 (0.662, 0.729) 0.057 (0.047, 0.068) 36.814 (29.972, 45.219)
1984-1992 E M P > E M _ 0.092 (0.082, 0.102) 1.057 (0.970, 1.152) 22.273 (12.836, 38.648) 0.192 (0.104, 0.352)
1984-1992 E M P > E _ P 0.014 (0.012, 0.016) 0.557 (0.496, 0.626) 0.086 (0.063, 0.117) 10.938 (7.845, 15.252)
1984-1992 E M P > E M P -0.359 (-0.376, -0.343) - - -
1993-1999 _ _ _ > _ _ _ -0.167 (-0.178, -0.156) - - -
1993-1999 _ _ _ > _ _ P 0.004 (0.003, 0.005) 1.291 (1.175, 1.419) 26.756 (14.879, 48.114) 0.002 (0.001, 0.005)
1993-1999 _ _ _ > _ M _ 0.012 (0.010, 0.015) 1.068 (0.966, 1.181) 0.809 (0.562, 1.165) 0.525 (0.328, 0.841)
1993-1999 _ _ _ > E _ _ 0.151 (0.140, 0.162) 1.459 (1.369, 1.555) 2.730 (2.251, 3.311) 0.117 (0.094, 0.147)
1993-1999 _ _ P > _ _ _ 0.070 (0.058, 0.085) 1.195 (1.099, 1.299) 26.429 (15.612, 44.741) 0.097 (0.055, 0.173)
1993-1999 _ _ P > _ _ P -0.273 (-0.297, -0.251) - - -
1993-1999 _ _ P > _ M P 0.037 (0.029, 0.047) 1.068 (0.966, 1.181) 0.809 (0.562, 1.165) 0.525 (0.328, 0.841)
1993-1999 _ _ P > E _ P 0.166 (0.149, 0.184) 1.459 (1.369, 1.555) 2.730 (2.251, 3.311) 0.117 (0.094, 0.147)
1993-1999 _ M _ > _ _ _ 0.029 (0.025, 0.033) 0.610 (0.548, 0.678) 0.074 (0.056, 0.099) 12.452 (9.324, 16.628)
1993-1999 _ M _ > _ M _ -0.226 (-0.238, -0.214) - - -
1993-1999 _ M _ > _ M P 0.037 (0.032, 0.042) 0.889 (0.747, 1.059) 0.020 (0.012, 0.033) 13.229 (7.930, 22.067)
1993-1999 _ M _ > E M _ 0.160 (0.150, 0.171) 1.459 (1.369, 1.555) 2.730 (2.251, 3.311) 0.117 (0.094, 0.147)
1993-1999 E _ _ > _ _ _ 0.145 (0.137, 0.154) 0.652 (0.617, 0.690) 0.040 (0.033, 0.048) 45.233 (37.009, 55.285)
1993-1999 E _ _ > E _ _ -0.182 (-0.191, -0.173) - - -
1993-1999 E _ _ > E M _ 0.033 (0.030, 0.037) 1.068 (0.966, 1.181) 0.809 (0.562, 1.165) 0.525 (0.328, 0.841)
1993-1999 E _ _ > E _ P 0.003 (0.003, 0.004) 1.291 (1.175, 1.419) 26.756 (14.879, 48.114) 0.002 (0.001, 0.005)
1993-1999 _ M P > _ _ P 0.011 (0.008, 0.014) 0.610 (0.548, 0.678) 0.074 (0.056, 0.099) 12.452 (9.324, 16.628)
1993-1999 _ M P > _ M _ 0.047 (0.041, 0.054) 1.125 (0.945, 1.339) 49.583 (30.151, 81.538) 0.076 (0.045, 0.126)
1993-1999 _ M P > _ M P -0.209 (-0.221, -0.198) - - -
1993-1999 _ M P > E M P 0.151 (0.142, 0.160) 1.459 (1.369, 1.555) 2.730 (2.251, 3.311) 0.117 (0.094, 0.147)
1993-1999 E M _ > _ M _ 0.151 (0.144, 0.159) 0.652 (0.617, 0.690) 0.040 (0.033, 0.048) 45.233 (37.009, 55.285)
1993-1999 E M _ > E _ _ 0.031 (0.028, 0.034) 0.610 (0.548, 0.678) 0.074 (0.056, 0.099) 12.452 (9.324, 16.628)
1993-1999 E M _ > E M _ -0.196 (-0.204, -0.187) - - -
1993-1999 E M _ > E M P 0.013 (0.011, 0.016) 1.291 (1.175, 1.419) 26.756 (14.879, 48.114) 0.002 (0.001, 0.005)
1993-1999 E _ P > _ _ P 0.158 (0.141, 0.177) 0.652 (0.617, 0.690) 0.040 (0.033, 0.048) 45.233 (37.009, 55.285)
1993-1999 E _ P > E _ _ 0.129 (0.115, 0.145) 1.195 (1.099, 1.299) 26.429 (15.612, 44.741) 0.097 (0.055, 0.173)
1993-1999 E _ P > E _ P -0.314 (-0.338, -0.292) - - -
1993-1999 E _ P > E M P 0.026 (0.022, 0.031) 1.068 (0.966, 1.181) 0.809 (0.562, 1.165) 0.525 (0.328, 0.841)
1993-1999 E M P > _ M P 0.131 (0.123, 0.140) 0.652 (0.617, 0.690) 0.040 (0.033, 0.048) 45.233 (37.009, 55.285)
1993-1999 E M P > E M _ 0.055 (0.049, 0.061) 1.195 (1.099, 1.299) 26.429 (15.612, 44.741) 0.097 (0.055, 0.173)
1993-1999 E M P > E _ P 0.020 (0.018, 0.023) 0.610 (0.548, 0.678) 0.074 (0.056, 0.099) 12.452 (9.324, 16.628)
1993-1999 E M P > E M P -0.207 (-0.218, -0.196) - - -
2000-2007 _ _ _ > _ _ _ -0.125 (-0.134, -0.118) - - -
2000-2007 _ _ _ > _ _ P 0.005 (0.004, 0.006) 1.120 (1.029, 1.219) 7.516 (4.755, 11.880) 0.014 (0.008, 0.025)
2000-2007 _ _ _ > _ M _ 0.011 (0.009, 0.013) 1.010 (0.919, 1.111) 2.309 (1.570, 3.396) 0.132 (0.079, 0.221)
2000-2007 _ _ _ > E _ _ 0.110 (0.102, 0.118) 1.409 (1.320, 1.504) 2.023 (1.682, 2.433) 0.163 (0.132, 0.201)
2000-2007 _ _ P > _ _ _ 0.104 (0.090, 0.120) 1.019 (0.941, 1.103) 91.910 (55.787, 151.423) 0.036 (0.021, 0.059)
2000-2007 _ _ P > _ _ P -0.238 (-0.259, -0.218) - - -
2000-2007 _ _ P > _ M P 0.023 (0.017, 0.030) 1.010 (0.919, 1.111) 2.309 (1.570, 3.396) 0.132 (0.079, 0.221)
2000-2007 _ _ P > E _ P 0.111 (0.098, 0.125) 1.409 (1.320, 1.504) 2.023 (1.682, 2.433) 0.163 (0.132, 0.201)
2000-2007 _ M _ > _ _ _ 0.021 (0.018, 0.024) 0.593 (0.531, 0.661) 0.151 (0.111, 0.207) 6.699 (4.963, 9.043)
2000-2007 _ M _ > _ M _ -0.203 (-0.214, -0.192) - - -
2000-2007 _ M _ > _ M P 0.036 (0.031, 0.042) 0.901 (0.756, 1.073) 0.026 (0.016, 0.043) 8.191 (4.894, 13.710)
2000-2007 _ M _ > E M _ 0.146 (0.137, 0.156) 1.409 (1.320, 1.504) 2.023 (1.682, 2.433) 0.163 (0.132, 0.201)
2000-2007 E _ _ > _ _ _ 0.095 (0.090, 0.101) 0.759 (0.718, 0.802) 0.064 (0.054, 0.077) 21.372 (17.771, 25.702)
2000-2007 E _ _ > E _ _ -0.125 (-0.131, -0.119) - - -
2000-2007 E _ _ > E M _ 0.024 (0.021, 0.026) 1.010 (0.919, 1.111) 2.309 (1.570, 3.396) 0.132 (0.079, 0.221)
2000-2007 E _ _ > E _ P 0.006 (0.005, 0.007) 1.120 (1.029, 1.219) 7.516 (4.755, 11.880) 0.014 (0.008, 0.025)
2000-2007 _ M P > _ _ P 0.016 (0.013, 0.021) 0.593 (0.531, 0.661) 0.151 (0.111, 0.207) 6.699 (4.963, 9.043)
2000-2007 _ M P > _ M _ 0.038 (0.033, 0.044) 1.110 (0.932, 1.323) 38.684 (23.429, 63.870) 0.122 (0.073, 0.204)
2000-2007 _ M P > _ M P -0.165 (-0.175, -0.156) - - -
2000-2007 _ M P > E M P 0.111 (0.104, 0.119) 1.409 (1.320, 1.504) 2.023 (1.682, 2.433) 0.163 (0.132, 0.201)
2000-2007 E M _ > _ M _ 0.109 (0.104, 0.115) 0.759 (0.718, 0.802) 0.064 (0.054, 0.077) 21.372 (17.771, 25.702)
2000-2007 E M _ > E _ _ 0.025 (0.023, 0.028) 0.593 (0.531, 0.661) 0.151 (0.111, 0.207) 6.699 (4.963, 9.043)
2000-2007 E M _ > E M _ -0.158 (-0.166, -0.152) - - -
2000-2007 E M _ > E M P 0.024 (0.021, 0.027) 1.120 (1.029, 1.219) 7.516 (4.755, 11.880) 0.014 (0.008, 0.025)
2000-2007 E _ P > _ _ P 0.112 (0.099, 0.126) 0.759 (0.718, 0.802) 0.064 (0.054, 0.077) 21.372 (17.771, 25.702)
2000-2007 E _ P > E _ _ 0.093 (0.084, 0.105) 1.019 (0.941, 1.103) 91.910 (55.787, 151.423) 0.036 (0.021, 0.059)
2000-2007 E _ P > E _ P -0.232 (-0.249, -0.215) - - -
2000-2007 E _ P > E M P 0.027 (0.023, 0.031) 1.010 (0.919, 1.111) 2.309 (1.570, 3.396) 0.132 (0.079, 0.221)
2000-2007 E M P > _ M P 0.079 (0.073, 0.084) 0.759 (0.718, 0.802) 0.064 (0.054, 0.077) 21.372 (17.771, 25.702)
2000-2007 E M P > E M _ 0.053 (0.048, 0.058) 1.019 (0.941, 1.103) 91.910 (55.787, 151.423) 0.036 (0.021, 0.059)
2000-2007 E M P > E _ P 0.013 (0.011, 0.015) 0.593 (0.531, 0.661) 0.151 (0.111, 0.207) 6.699 (4.963, 9.043)
2000-2007 E M P > E M P -0.144 (-0.152, -0.137) - - -
2008-2015 _ _ _ > _ _ _ -0.123 (-0.130, -0.116) - - -
2008-2015 _ _ _ > _ _ P 0.005 (0.004, 0.006) 0.901 (0.814, 0.996) 11.595 (6.733, 19.969) 0.007 (0.004, 0.015)
2008-2015 _ _ _ > _ M _ 0.007 (0.005, 0.008) 0.959 (0.855, 1.076) 3.233 (1.984, 5.266) 0.092 (0.049, 0.174)
2008-2015 _ _ _ > E _ _ 0.112 (0.105, 0.119) 1.300 (1.225, 1.380) 1.776 (1.488, 2.121) 0.191 (0.156, 0.234)
2008-2015 _ _ P > _ _ _ 0.114 (0.099, 0.132) 1.130 (1.036, 1.231) 23.441 (14.377, 38.219) 0.122 (0.074, 0.203)
2008-2015 _ _ P > _ _ P -0.261 (-0.284, -0.240) - - -
2008-2015 _ _ P > _ M P 0.018 (0.013, 0.024) 0.959 (0.855, 1.076) 3.233 (1.984, 5.266) 0.092 (0.049, 0.174)
2008-2015 _ _ P > E _ P 0.129 (0.115, 0.145) 1.300 (1.225, 1.380) 1.776 (1.488, 2.121) 0.191 (0.156, 0.234)
2008-2015 _ M _ > _ _ _ 0.036 (0.031, 0.040) 0.572 (0.518, 0.632) 0.053 (0.041, 0.068) 14.804 (11.634, 18.839)
2008-2015 _ M _ > _ M _ -0.198 (-0.209, -0.188) - - -
2008-2015 _ M _ > _ M P 0.029 (0.025, 0.034) 0.856 (0.725, 1.011) 0.051 (0.030, 0.087) 5.022 (2.997, 8.414)
2008-2015 _ M _ > E M _ 0.133 (0.125, 0.142) 1.300 (1.225, 1.380) 1.776 (1.488, 2.121) 0.191 (0.156, 0.234)
2008-2015 E _ _ > _ _ _ 0.117 (0.111, 0.123) 0.780 (0.741, 0.822) 0.110 (0.094, 0.128) 12.971 (11.070, 15.199)
2008-2015 E _ _ > E _ _ -0.135 (-0.141, -0.129) - - -
2008-2015 E _ _ > E M _ 0.015 (0.013, 0.017) 0.959 (0.855, 1.076) 3.233 (1.984, 5.266) 0.092 (0.049, 0.174)
2008-2015 E _ _ > E _ P 0.003 (0.003, 0.004) 0.901 (0.814, 0.996) 11.595 (6.733, 19.969) 0.007 (0.004, 0.015)
2008-2015 _ M P > _ _ P 0.010 (0.007, 0.014) 0.572 (0.518, 0.632) 0.053 (0.041, 0.068) 14.804 (11.634, 18.839)
2008-2015 _ M P > _ M _ 0.045 (0.039, 0.052) 1.168 (0.989, 1.379) 19.491 (11.548, 32.898) 0.199 (0.119, 0.334)
2008-2015 _ M P > _ M P -0.171 (-0.181, -0.161) - - -
2008-2015 _ M P > E M P 0.116 (0.108, 0.124) 1.300 (1.225, 1.380) 1.776 (1.488, 2.121) 0.191 (0.156, 0.234)
2008-2015 E M _ > _ M _ 0.111 (0.105, 0.117) 0.780 (0.741, 0.822) 0.110 (0.094, 0.128) 12.971 (11.070, 15.199)
2008-2015 E M _ > E _ _ 0.031 (0.028, 0.034) 0.572 (0.518, 0.632) 0.053 (0.041, 0.068) 14.804 (11.634, 18.839)
2008-2015 E M _ > E M _ -0.163 (-0.171, -0.156) - - -
2008-2015 E M _ > E M P 0.021 (0.018, 0.024) 0.901 (0.814, 0.996) 11.595 (6.733, 19.969) 0.007 (0.004, 0.015)
2008-2015 E _ P > _ _ P 0.130 (0.116, 0.146) 0.780 (0.741, 0.822) 0.110 (0.094, 0.128) 12.971 (11.070, 15.199)
2008-2015 E _ P > E _ _ 0.100 (0.089, 0.113) 1.130 (1.036, 1.231) 23.441 (14.377, 38.219) 0.122 (0.074, 0.203)
2008-2015 E _ P > E _ P -0.253 (-0.273, -0.234) - - -
2008-2015 E _ P > E M P 0.022 (0.019, 0.027) 0.959 (0.855, 1.076) 3.233 (1.984, 5.266) 0.092 (0.049, 0.174)
2008-2015 E M P > _ M P 0.079 (0.074, 0.085) 0.780 (0.741, 0.822) 0.110 (0.094, 0.128) 12.971 (11.070, 15.199)
2008-2015 E M P > E M _ 0.056 (0.051, 0.062) 1.130 (1.036, 1.231) 23.441 (14.377, 38.219) 0.122 (0.074, 0.203)
2008-2015 E M P > E _ P 0.019 (0.016, 0.021) 0.572 (0.518, 0.632) 0.053 (0.041, 0.068) 14.804 (11.634, 18.839)
2008-2015 E M P > E M P -0.154 (-0.163, -0.146) - - -

  1. 1_ =1 _ = not currently holding role, E= Employed, M = Married, P= Parent.

Table E6
Summary of error between micro-simulated and Census population for 1990 by demographic category.
California 1990 Total Male Female Black White Hispanic Other
Micro-simulated population 2346930 1174600 1172330 196620 1449040 475800 225470
Census population 2372956 1191852 1181104 163098 1403873 570837 235147
% difference -1.1% -1.4% -0.7% +20.5% +3.2% -16.6% -4.1%

  1. Notes: positive values indicate that the microsimulation has over-estimated. Negative values indicate the microsimulation has under estimated.

Table F1
Comparison of Census 1980 and Micro-synthesis demographic categories for California
Female Male
Census Micro-synthesis % difference Census Micro-synthesis % difference
12-13 34319 34321 -0.01% 35516 35516 -0.01%
14-17 78235 78235 -0.01% 80271 80265 0.00%
18-19 43149 43149 0.00% 42496 42495 0.01%
20-22 67427 67427 0.00% 67082 67081 0.00%
23-24 46233 46234 0.00% 46481 46482 0.00%
25-28 88104 8813 0.00% 88702 88702 0.00%
29-30 42761 42761 0.00% 42895 42896 0.00%
31-34 78497 78497 0.00% 77893 77893 0.00%
35-39 77326 77327 0.00% 76723 76724 0.00%
40-44 63134 63133 0.00% 62340 62340 0.00%
45-49 58371 58372 0.00% 57422 57422 0.00%
50-59 124046 124046 0.00% 114417 114418 0.00%
60-80 162490 162492 0.00% 129435 129435 0.00%
Black 71332 71333 0.00% 63901 63901 0.00%
Hispanic 162686 162687 0.00% 163695 163696 0.00%
Other 63678 63678 -0.01% 60735 60736 0.00%
White 666395 666398 0.00% 633346 633341 0.00%
High school graduate 641079 641084 0.00% 549945 549939 0.00%
Some college 202229 202231 0.00% 198391 198391 0.00%
College + 120782 120780 0.00% 173343 173344 0.00%
employed 456422 456420 0.000% 622114 622114 0.000%
unemployed 507669 507675 0.001% 299565 299560 -0.002%
married 496685 496686 0.000% 501221 501222 0.000%
unmarried 467406 467410 0.001% 420458 420452 -0.001%
not parent 587778 587782 0.001% 572818 572811 -0.001%
parent 376313 376314 0.000% 348861 348863 0.000%
$0-$6999 116207 116208 0.001% 63197 63196 -0.001%
$7000-$9999 73902 73904 0.002% 56098 56099 0.002%
$10000-$14999 132318 132317 0.000% 97953 97953 0.000%
$15000-$19999 105334 105334 0.000% 110883 110882 -0.002%
$20000-$24999 111145 111145 0.000% 118663 118664 0.001%
$25000-$29999 151786 151784 -0.001% 171233 171234 0.000%
$30000+ 160845 160845 0.000% 187861 187862 0.001%
youth-no income 112554 112556 0.003% 115788 115781 -0.006%
Table F2
Comparison of Census 1980 and Micro-synthesis demographic categories for Minnesota
Female Male
Census Micro-synthesis % difference Census Micro-synthesis % difference
12-13 27241 27238 -0.01% 28255 28253 -0.01%
14-17 61564 61556 -0.01% 63441 63440 0.00%
18-19 32127 32128 0.00% 30794 30796 0.01%
20-22 47405 47406 0.00% 43889 43890 0.00%
23-24 30533 30533 0.00% 28029 28030 0.00%
25-28 58583 58584 0.00% 54319 54320 0.00%
29-30 29450 29451 0.00% 27114 27114 0.00%
31-34 55495 55496 0.00% 50642 50643 0.00%
35-39 57839 57841 0.00% 52096 52096 0.00%
40-44 48834 48835 0.00% 44256 44256 0.00%
45-49 47692 47692 0.00% 42947 42948 0.00%
50-59 104535 104537 0.00% 91546 91545 0.00%
60-80 147327 147327 0.00% 107702 107703 0.00%
Black 99616 99617 0.00% 77367 77368 0.00%
Hispanic 67549 67549 0.00% 56821 56820 0.00%
Other 16987 16986 -0.01% 16640 16640 0.00%
White 564477 564474 0.00% 514208 514209 0.00%
High school graduate 529602 529597 0.00% 443144 443145 0.00%
Some college 125710 125712 0.00% 104317 104318 0.00%
College + 93318 93319 0.00% 117574 117576 0.00%
employed 82042 82039 -0.004% 106867 106868 0.001%
unemployed 81373 81373 -0.001% 49791 49794 0.006%
married 91259 91256 -0.003% 91588 91588 0.000%
unmarried 72157 72155 -0.002% 65070 65074 0.006%
not parent 104887 104886 -0.001% 100877 100881 0.003%
parent 58529 58526 -0.005% 55781 55781 0.001%
$0-$6999 16634 16632 -0.008% 9321 9321 -0.009%
$7000-$9999 11580 11579 -0.014% 8827 8827 0.000%
$10000-$14999 19356 19357 0.004% 16283 16283 -0.004%
$15000-$19999 18250 18249 -0.008% 18769 18769 -0.003%
$20000-$24999 18958 18958 -0.002% 20074 20075 0.005%
$25000-$29999 27461 27461 0.000% 29382 29382 0.001%
$30000+ 29991 29990 -0.003% 31826 31827 0.002%
youth-no income 21183 21184 0.005% 22172 22176 0.018%
Table F3
Comparison of Census 1980 and Micro-synthesis demographic categories for New York
Female Male
Census Micro-synthesis % difference Census Micro-synthesis % difference
12-13 27241 27238 -0.01% 28255 28253 -0.01%
14-17 61564 61556 -0.01% 63441 63440 0.00%
18-19 32127 32128 0.00% 30794 30796 0.01%
20-22 47405 47406 0.00% 43889 43890 0.00%
23-24 30533 30533 0.00% 28029 28030 0.00%
25-28 58583 58584 0.00% 54319 54320 0.00%
29-30 29450 29451 0.00% 27114 27114 0.00%
31-34 55495 55496 0.00% 50642 50643 0.00%
35-39 57839 57841 0.00% 52096 52096 0.00%
40-44 48834 48835 0.00% 44256 44256 0.00%
45-49 47692 47692 0.00% 42947 42948 0.00%
50-59 104535 104537 0.00% 91546 91545 0.00%
60-80 147327 147327 0.00% 107702 107703 0.00%
Black 99616 99617 0.00% 77367 77368 0.00%
Hispanic 67549 67549 0.00% 56821 56820 0.00%
Other 16987 16986 -0.01% 16640 16640 0.00%
White 564477 564474 0.00% 514208 514209 0.00%
High school graduate 529602 529597 0.00% 443144 443145 0.00%
Some college 125710 125712 0.00% 104317 104318 0.00%
College + 93318 93319 0.00% 117574 117576 0.00%
employed 324473 324476 0.001% 421505 421509 0.001%
unemployed 424158 424151 -0.002% 243530 243530 0.000%
married 360180 360187 0.002% 360048 360051 0.001%
unmarried 388451 388441 -0.003% 304988 304988 0.000%
not parent 478148 478139 -0.002% 433012 433013 0.000%
parent 270483 270488 0.002% 232024 232026 0.001%
$0-$6999 105097 105099 0.001% 50391 50391 0.001%
$7000-$9999 63228 63228 -0.001% 41904 41904 0.001%
$10000-$14999 98860 98863 0.003% 72189 72191 0.002%
$15000-$19999 81467 81469 0.001% 79584 79585 0.001%
$20000-$24999 81939 81940 0.001% 82614 82615 0.002%
$25000-$29999 110219 110219 0.000% 118694 118694 0.000%
$30000+ 119011 119013 0.002% 127961 127963 0.001%
youth-no income 88805 88794 -0.013% 91696 91694 -0.003%
Table F4
Comparison of Census 1980 and Micro-synthesis demographic categories for Tennessee
Female Male
Census Micro-synthesis % difference Census Micro-synthesis % difference
12-13 7062 7062 -0.01% 7376 7375 -0.01%
14-17 16008 16011 -0.01% 16635 16633 0.00%
18-19 8663 8663 0.00% 8392 8392 0.01%
20-22 12939 12939 0.00% 12203 12203 0.00%
23-24 8385 8386 0.00% 7934 7935 0.00%
25-28 15954 15953 0.00% 15000 14999 0.00%
29-30 7568 7567 0.00% 7283 7283 0.00%
31-34 14319 14319 0.00% 13590 13591 0.00%
35-39 14687 14687 0.00% 13948 13948 0.00%
40-44 12653 12653 0.00% 11861 11861 0.00%
45-49 12032 12033 0.00% 10884 10883 0.00%
50-59 24527 24527 0.00% 21601 21601 0.00%
60-80 35567 35566 0.00% 26752 26752 0.00%
Black 29365 29365 0.00% 23977 23978 0.00%
Hispanic 1347 1347 0.00% 1227 1226 0.00%
Other 969 969 -0.01% 919 920 0.00%
White 158686 158691 0.00% 147339 147335 0.00%
High school graduate 148035 148038 0.00% 131070 131067 0.00%
Some college 25913 25913 0.00% 21497 21496 0.00%
College + 16420 16420 0.00% 20896 20897 0.00%
employed 82113 82113 0.000% 110522 110523 0.000%
unemployed 108255 108259 0.004% 62942 62937 -0.007%
married 105877 105877 0.000% 105925 105924 0.000%
unmarried 84491 84495 0.005% 67539 67535 -0.006%
not parent 118870 118873 0.003% 110051 110048 -0.003%
parent 71498 71499 0.001% 63413 63412 -0.001%
$0-$6999 24557 24556 -0.004% 12456 12456 -0.004%
$7000-$9999 15018 15019 0.003% 10596 10596 0.001%
$10000-$14999 22960 22961 0.005% 18886 18886 0.001%
$15000-$19999 21447 21447 0.000% 21310 21310 0.001%
$20000-$24999 21576 21575 -0.003% 22217 22217 -0.001%
$25000-$29999 29785 29786 0.003% 31355 31354 -0.004%
$30000+ 31952 31951 -0.002% 32629 32629 0.002%
youth-no income 23070 23074 0.018% 24012 24008 -0.013%
Table F5
Comparison of Census 1980 and Micro-synthesis demographic categories for Texas
Female Male
Census Micro-synthesis % difference Census Micro-synthesis % difference
12-13 22357 22358 -0.01% 23270 23271 -0.01%
14-17 49894 49898 -0.01% 51592 51585 0.00%
18-19 27180 27179 0.00% 26834 26834 0.01%
20-22 41451 41451 0.00% 40474 40475 0.00%
23-24 27802 27802 0.00% 27631 27631 0.00%
25-28 52002 52003 0.00% 51844 51844 0.00%
29-30 24265 24264 0.00% 24162 24163 0.00%
31-34 44007 44006 0.00% 43471 43469 0.00%
35-39 44166 44166 0.00% 43097 43098 0.00%
40-44 36665 36664 0.00% 35275 35276 0.00%
45-49 34670 34670 0.00% 33095 33095 0.00%
50-59 68693 68694 0.00% 62974 62974 0.00%
60-80 91746 91746 0.00% 72024 72025 0.00%
Black 66501 66499 0.00% 57637 57639 0.00%
Hispanic 107300 107300 0.00% 103714 103715 0.00%
Other 7612 7612 -0.01% 7592 7591 0.00%
White 383487 383493 0.00% 366805 366799 0.00%
employed 261540 261539 0.000% 378302 378304 0.001%
unemployed 303362 303367 0.002% 157447 157441 -0.004%
married 320345 320344 0.000% 322254 322255 0.000%
unmarried 244557 244562 0.002% 213495 213490 -0.002%
not parent 337557 337565 0.002% 326571 326565 -0.002%
parent 227344 227341 -0.001% 209179 209180 0.001%
$0-$6999 66610 66610 0.001% 33977 33979 0.005%
$7000-$9999 43731 43730 -0.003% 33648 33649 0.003%
$10000-$14999 75175 75175 0.001% 57245 57245 -0.001%
$15000-$19999 61536 61536 0.000% 65138 6513 0.002%
$20000-$24999 64147 64148 0.001% 70621 70620 -0.002%
$25000-$29999 87815 87814 -0.001% 97645 97646 0.001%
$30000+ 93634 93633 -0.001% 102609 102609 0.000%
youth-no income 72251 72256 0.007% 74863 74856 -0.009%
Table G1
Validation over 30 years: Comparison of microsimulation population with observed California Census data by sex, age and race/ethnicity for California in 1990, 2000 and 2010.
1990 2000 2010
Census Microsimulation % difference Census Microsimulation % difference Census Microsimulation % difference
Non-hispanic black 163098 163478 0.23 170935 173171 1.31 179650 177566 -1.16
Hispanic 570837 564918 -1.04 802547 808682 0.76 1070392 1077090 0.63
Non-hispanic other 235147 232372 -1.18 395669 394494 -0.30 501662 502613 0.19
Non-hispanic white 1403873 1398203 -0.40 1309368 1323264 1.06 1261488 1271241 0.77
Female 1181104 1175748 -0.45 1340856 1344843 0.30 1510682 1509581 -0.07
Male 1191852 1183223 -0.72 1337663 1354768 1.28 1502511 1518929 1.09
12-17 230157 227814 -1.02 296664 291532 -1.73 323851 319253 -1.42
18-24 341225 334686 -1.92 336603 333629 -0.89 392295 385753 -1.67
25-29 285405 286916 0.53 254354 254657 0.12 274440 270831 -1.32
30-34 283231 282833 -0.14 268552 270008 0.54 257346 258745 0.54
35-39 250094 249908 -0.07 281474 290364 3.16 257357 259482 0.83
40-44 213837 211583 -1.05 267059 273110 2.26 260913 260811 -0.04
45-49 162052 162067 0.01 233179 239895 2.89 268981 281130 4.52
50-59 241594 243693 0.87 346709 350082 0.97 476684 485139 1.77
60-80 365356 359471 -1.61 393923 396334 0.62 501322 507366 1.21
Table G2
Validation over 30 years: Comparison of microsimulation population with observed Minnesota Census data by sex, age and race/ethnicity for Minnesota in 1990, 2000 and 2010.
1990 2000 2010
Census Microsimulation % difference Census Microsimulation % difference Census Microsimulation % difference
Non-hispanic black 6585 6613 0.42 12412 12545 1.07 20170 20227 0.28
Hispanic 3716 3739 0.64 10196 10280 0.82 17537 17282 -1.45
Non-hispanic other 8618 8570 -0.56 19182 19124 -0.30 27438 27444 0.02
Non-hispanic white 324322 324449 0.04 351064 351462 0.11 361567 362328 0.21
Female 174474 174489 0.01 197125 197426 0.15 213592 213807 0.10
Male 168769 168884 0.07 195730 195985 0.13 213122 213474 0.17
12-17 35025 35087 0.18 45125 45167 0.09 43186 43218 0.08
18-24 44280 44418 0.31 47043 47326 0.60 50279 49878 -0.80
25-29 38175 38182 0.02 31982 32263 0.88 37268 37250 -0.05
30-34 39798 39742 -0.14 35331 35398 0.19 34290 34459 0.49
35-39 36127 36138 0.03 41249 41298 0.12 32819 32640 -0.54
40-44 30481 30420 -0.20 41169 41105 -0.15 35290 35665 1.06
45-49 23705 23774 0.29 36424 36402 -0.06 40620 40662 0.10
50-59 36447 36504 0.16 52830 52729 -0.19 75128 75155 0.04
60-80 59202 59104 -0.17 61699 61719 0.03 77831 78351 0.67
Table G3
Validation over 30 years: Comparison of microsimulation population with observed New York Census data by sex, age and race/ethnicity for New York in 1990, 2000 and 2010.
1990 2000 2010
Census Microsimulation % difference Census Microsimulation % difference Census Microsimulation % difference
Non-hispanic black 203411 203766 0.17 220719 222012 0.59 228852 229342 0.21
Hispanic 172834 172456 -0.22 222108 222888 0.35 272005 273095 0.40
Non-hispanic other 61089 61337 0.40 124280 124349 0.06 153691 154913 0.80
Non-hispanic white 1024415 1025457 0.10 959074 961237 0.23 934043 937438 0.36
Female 761670 761875 0.03 790144 791188 0.13 817689 819644 0.24
Male 700079 701141 0.15 736038 739298 0.44 770903 775144 0.55
12-17 136200 136168 -0.02 154810 155244 0.28 152705 152433 -0.18
18-24 195342 195446 0.05 176545 177476 0.53 198351 197888 -0.23
25-29 156461 156771 0.20 130472 130603 0.10 138017 138531 0.37
30-34 157357 157366 0.01 145259 145251 -0.01 127916 128229 0.24
35-39 142646 142724 0.05 156608 157221 0.39 125412 125733 0.26
40-44 129822 129878 0.04 150821 150918 0.06 135589 136657 0.79
45-49 104231 104498 0.26 134113 135044 0.69 145876 146118 0.17
50-59 168346 168855 0.30 214380 215146 0.36 265733 267341 0.60
60-80 271342 271310 -0.01 263170 263583 0.16 298991 301858 0.96
Table G4
Validation over 30 years: Comparison of microsimulation population with observed Tennessee Census data by sex, age and race/ethnicity for Tennessee in 1990, 2000 and 2010.
1990 2000 2010
Census Microsimulation % difference Census Microsimulation % difference Census Microsimulation % difference
Non-hispanic black 58944 59118 0.29 71218 72081 1.21 83928 84558 0.75
Hispanic 2510 2638 5.08 9501 9813 3.27 20757 20408 -1.69
Non-hispanic other 3330 3293 -1.13 9852 9412 -4.47 14876 13982 -6.01
Non-hispanic white 329997 330040 0.01 369846 369830 0.00 397473 397650 0.04
Female 205013 205311 0.15 235860 236255 0.17 264499 264319 -0.07
Male 189770 189778 0.00 224559 224881 0.14 252538 252279 -0.10
12-17 40625 40802 0.43 46594 46712 0.25 50588 50958 0.73
18-24 52765 53048 0.54 54885 55152 0.49 60636 61647 1.67
25-29 40297 40215 -0.21 40382 40665 0.70 41768 42291 1.25
30-34 40934 40907 -0.07 41207 41344 0.33 40631 41241 1.50
35-39 38632 38674 0.11 45332 45356 0.05 42362 42421 0.14
40-44 35466 35428 -0.11 44920 45124 0.45 43050 42886 -0.38
45-49 28655 28733 0.27 41270 41055 -0.52 46708 46310 -0.85
50-59 46060 46138 0.17 66815 66972 0.23 87434 86703 -0.84
60-80 71345 71144 -0.28 79010 78756 -0.32 103857 102141 -1.65
Table G5
Validation over 30 years: Comparison of microsimulation population with observed Texas Census data by sex, age and race/ethnicity for Texas in 1990, 2000 and 2010.
1990 2000 2010
Census Microsimulation % difference Census Microsimulation % difference Census Microsimulation % difference
Non-hispanic black 150605 151745 0.76 184182 186782 1.41 231568 234354 1.20
Hispanic 318866 315727 -0.98 496386 496677 0.06 707160 705827 -0.19
Non-hispanic other 30092 30105 0.04 69796 70057 0.37 109792 110317 0.48
Non-hispanic white 833485 835227 0.21 897181 896111 -0.12 946896 950742 0.41
Female 676865 678536 0.25 827750 828635 0.11 1004674 1006934 0.22
Male 656185 654268 -0.29 819796 820992 0.15 990744 994306 0.36
12-17 151020 152366 0.89 194815 195371 0.29 224420 224980 0.25
18-24 189084 190275 0.63 219888 221856 0.89 257296 258752 0.57
25-29 153274 153165 -0.07 159152 161364 1.39 185303 185649 0.19
30-34 155343 154084 -0.81 157056 157573 0.33 176043 176824 0.44
35-39 137252 136045 -0.88 168888 167637 -0.74 176358 177412 0.60
40-44 116650 117079 0.37 163335 163100 -0.14 169479 169548 0.04
45-49 90658 90565 -0.10 141617 141005 -0.43 176046 176132 0.05
50-59 138364 138433 0.05 209148 209162 0.01 309779 309683 -0.03
60-80 201403 200792 -0.30 233645 232559 -0.46 320689 322260 0.49

Data and code availability

The National Survey on Drug Use and Health is publicly available and can be accessed from the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Data Archive https://datafiles.samhsa.gov/

The Panel Study of Income Dynamics is publicly available and can be accessed from the Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan https://simba.isr.umich.edu/data/data.aspx

U.S Census data is publicly available and can be accessed from IPUMS National Historic Geographic Information Service https://data2.nhgis.org/main

The American Community survey is publicly available and can be accessed from IPUMS-USA https://usa.ipums.org/usa/

Mortality data is publicly available and can be accessed from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention https://wonder.cdc.gov/mortSQL.html

The CASCADE-POP model is licensed under the GNU General Public License version 3 and the code is available open source at https://bitbucket.org/r01cascade/ijm_cascadepop/

On publication, the code for the model will be made available via an online public repository.

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