Figures and tables in Modelling foreign labour inflows using a dynamic microsimulation model of an ageing country - Slovakia

Abstract

In this paper, we introduce our approach adopted to project the development of available labour supply. We focus on the situation at the Slovak labour market, where the increased inflow of foreign labour between 2012 and 2019 was driven by the demand for labour arising because of a need for replacing workers leaving the labour market. Using data from the Labour Force Survey, SLAMM simulates the development of domestic labour supply by reproducing the demographic processes, educational attainment, together with decisions on economic activity and employment. The discrepancy between the domestic labour supply and structure of employment expected by a macroeconomic forecast drives the projected inflow of foreign workers. The deficit of labour, driven mainly by the demographic change, is expected to be balanced by labour immigration. Besides its potential in predicting future labour supply, we also show some of the policy-relevant scenarios simulated by SLAMM.

This article contains 6 figures and 1 table.

Figures

**Scheme 1.** Structure of SLAMM in modules

**Figure 1.** Expected annual change in total employment.

**Figure 2.** Predicted development of the dependency ratio, in scenarios.

**Figure 3.** Predicted annual inflow of employed persons born out of the country, in scenarios.

**Figure 4.** The annual number of workers in need of replacement in scenarios.

**Figure 5.** Stock of employed persons born out of the country, by educational level.

Tables

Table 1. Variables used in the SLAMM model.

Variable	Values
Gender	MaleFemale
Age	In years
Highest level of education achieved	Primary Lower secondary Upper secondary Post-secondary Tertiary
Field of highest education achieved	10 fields (based on ISCED-F 2013)
Economic status in the current period	Employed Unemployed Student Retired Disabled Inactive
Economic status one year ago	Employed Unemployed Student Retired Disabled Inactive
Economic sector of employment in the current period	18 sectors (based on NACE 2.0)
Economic sector of employment one year ago	18 sectors (based on NACE 2.0)
Occupational group	3 groups* (based on ISCO 08 skill levels) (ISCO1-3; ISCO 4-8; ISCO 9)
Occupational group one year ago
Country of birth	Native EU Non-EU

Source: Model SLAMM.

Corresponding to the skill levels of the ISCO classification allows constructing indicators of skills mismatch (ILO, 2012, p. 12).