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A Microsimulation Analysis of the Distributional Impact over the Three Waves of the COVID-19 Crisis in Ireland

  1. Cathal O’Donoghue
  2. Denisa M Sologon  Is a corresponding author
  3. Iryna Kyzyma
  4. John McHale
  1. National University of Ireland, Ireland
  2. Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research, Luxembourg
Research article
Volume 14(2) Summer 2021
Cite this article as: C. O’Donoghue, D. M Sologon, I. Kyzyma, J. McHale; 2021; A Microsimulation Analysis of the Distributional Impact over the Three Waves of the COVID-19 Crisis in Ireland; International Journal of Microsimulation; 14(2); 81-105. doi: 10.34196/ijm.00237
5 figures and 15 tables

Figures

Figure 1
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Daily number of COVID-19 cases in Ireland. Source: Worldometer data.
Figure 2
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Trends in the recipients of the pandemic related payments. Note: CWS stands for various COVID Wage Subsidies; PUP stands for Pandemic Unemployment Payment; CEIB stands for COVID Enhanced Illness Benefit; TWSS stands for the Temporary Wage Subsidy Scheme.
Figure 3
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Distributional characteristics of income before and during the crisis (in € per month per adult equivalent). Note: Adjusted disposable income stands for household equivalized disposable income adjusted for housing, work related expenses and capital losses.
Figure A1
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Phases of the COVID-19 crisis and total expenditure in Ireland, per user (indexed to 1stFebruary, 7-day moving average). Source: Revolut in Department of Finance Emerging economic developments-real-time economic domestic indicators. 11November 2020.
Figure F1
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Methodology

Tables

Table 1
Changes in the number of recipients of Pandemic Unemployment Payment and COVID Enhanced Illness Benefit over the first 9 months of the COVID-19 crisis
PUP CEIB
Before Crisis May 5th June 6th August 28th November 15th May 5th June 6th August 28th November 15th
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing; Mining and Quarrying 8600 7100 3,200 4321 400 500 500 4321
Manufacturing 37400 28100 12,500 15465 5100 6600 7800 15465
Electricity, gas supply; Water supply, sewerage and waste management 2100 1700 900 1134 200 200 300 1134
Construction 79300 51500 17,500 21061 1700 1900 2200 21061
Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and motorcycles 90300 76900 32,900 57015 8400 10400 11900 57015
Transportation and storage 17900 15400 9,600 9127 1600 1900 2200 9127
Accommodation and food service activities 128500 120000 48,700 102682 1600 1800 2400 102682
Information and communication activities 11800 11600 6,800 7526 700 800 900 7526
Financial and insurance activities 12500 11600 6,000 7119 1700 2100 2300 7119
Real Estate activities 8100 7600 3,500 5442 300 400 500 5442
Professional, Scientific and Technical activities 24800 22300 11,700 13294 1300 1600 1800 13294
Administrative and support service activities 45800 41100 23,600 29674 3900 4900 5500 29674
Public Administration And Defence; Compulsory Social Security 14400 11700 5,600 5354 1700 2000 2200 5354
Education 22000 21600 14,400 10340 600 800 900 10340
Human Health And Social Work activities 22500 19700 9,900 10271 8300 10900 12200 10271
Arts, entertainment and recreation 14200 13800 6,300 11973 200 300 400 11973
Other Sectors 39200 37500 10,300 31048 1200 1400 1700 31048

  1. Note: Numbers are expressed at each point in time.

  2. Source: COVID-19 Statistics https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/f4c60c-covid-19-statistics/

Table 2
Distribution of COVID-19 cases by age group and by work status (April 2020)
Age Group
  0 1-4 5-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
In-work by Age 0 0 0 91 413 452 441 259 61
Out-of-Work by Age 9 12 33 164 265 299 323 325 857

  1. Note: The same approach was utilised to simulate COVID-19 cases for other age groups.

  2. Source: COVID-19 Dashboard (https://geohive.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/29dc1fec79164c179d18d8e53df82e96), accessed April 6th 2020.

Table 3
Number of requests for mortgage deferral
Number of Requests as of March 28 28000
Number of Requests as of April 12 45000
Number of Requests as of July 160000
Number of Requests as of September 90539

  1. Source: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0328/1127000-banking-mortgages-coronavirus/ https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/mortgage-breaks-for-six-months-as-45000-apply-for-payment-pause-993714.html https://www.centralbank.ie/statistics/statistical-publications/behind-the-data/covid-19-payment-breaks-who-has-needed-them

Table 4
Cost of commuting per week
Number of Workers
1 2 3
Proportional Increase in Cost relative to not working
Motor Fuels 0.263 0.482 0.721
Public Transport 0.172 0.253 0.595
Cost per week
Motor Fuels 7.41 13.59 20.33
Public Transport 1.76 0.83 3.49
Total per week (€) 9.17 14.42 23.82

  1. Source: Household Budget Survey 2015-16.

Table 5
Distribution of Child Care Costs (€) per Week by Family Type and Disposable Income Decile
Family Type 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Total
1 adult with children 2.9 7.8 3.3 22.0 22.4 39.1 68.0 65.9 191.2 268.5 18.1
2 adults with 1-3 children 1.9 5.1 2.2 14.5 14.7 25.8 44.8 43.4 126.1 177.0 49.9
Other households with children 0.7 2.0 0.8 5.6 5.7 9.9 17.2 16.7 48.4 68.0 15.2
Total 0.4 1.0 0.6 5.5 4.7 7.6 12.9 13.6 30.2 40.3 12.0

  1. Source: Household Budget Survey 2015-16

Table 6
Distribution of holding and value of shares, 2018
Percentile of household income Less than 20 20-39 40-59 60-79 80-100
Participation in total financial assets (%) 3.3 3 8.3 11.3 24.8
Median values of financial assets (€Thousand) 1.4 8.8 3.1 4.4 12.2
Distribution of total financial assets (%) 1.4 4.3 11 12.5 12.4
Age group Under 35 years 35 - 44 years 45 - 54 years 55 - 64 years 65 years and over
Participation in total financial assets (%) 5.4 8.7 13.3 13.8 8.3
Median values of financial assets (€Thousand) 14.1 8.4 4 10 12.9
Distribution of total financial assets (%) 4.6 15.3 11.9 5.4 15.5

  1. Source: Household Finance and Consumption Survey.

Table 7
Change in shareholdings across the age-income distribution, January 1 – April 1, 2020 (€000)
Percentile in the income distribution
Age group Less than 20 20-39 40-59 60-79 80-100 Total
30 0.000 -0.004 -0.003 -0.006 -0.011 -0.005
40 -0.002 -0.036 -0.032 -0.063 -0.117 -0.055
50 -0.003 -0.047 -0.041 -0.082 -0.151 -0.072
60 -0.012 -0.194 -0.168 -0.336 -0.623 -0.246
70 -0.058 -0.902 -0.783 -1.563 -2.901 -0.698
Total -0.025 -0.248 -0.134 -0.197 -0.328 -0.183

  1. Note: a similar approach was applied to later periods.

Table 8
Average income by income definition over the course of the crisis per month during the time point considered, in Euros
Before Crisis May 5th June 6th August 28th November 13th December 22nd January 26th
Market Income 2362 1600 1675 1931 1810 1791 1817
Disposable Income 2150 1945 1957 2020 2005 2003 2000
Adjusted disposable Income 1861 1798 1810 1868 1853 1853 1853

  1. Source: Authors’ calculations. The estimates refer to corresponding points in time.

Table 9
Gini coefficient before and during crisis
Market Income Gross Income Disposable Income Adjusted disposable income
Gini
Before Crisis 0.490 0.363 0.290 0.308
May 5th 0.609 0.349 0.276 0.290
June 6th 0.594 0.354 0.279 0.294
August 28th 0.548 0.361 0.291 0.304
November 15th 0.572 0.356 0.282 0.296
December 22nd 0.582 0.362 0.287 0.301
January 26th 0.578 0.361 0.287 0.301
Change
May 5th 0.119 -0.015 -0.015 -0.019
June 6th 0.104 -0.009 -0.011 -0.014
August 28th 0.058 -0.002 0.001 -0.004
November 15th 0.082 -0.007 -0.009 -0.012
December 22nd 0.092 -0.001 -0.003 -0.007
January 26th 0.088 -0.002 -0.004 -0.008

  1. Note: The Modified OECD Equivalence Scale is used. The estimates refer to the corresponding points in time.

Table 10
Redistribution before and during crisis
Period Benefits Taxes Work Expenses and Housing Costs
Before Crisis -0.127 -0.073 0.018
May 5th -0.260 -0.073 0.014
June 6th -0.240 -0.075 0.016
August 28th -0.187 -0.070 0.014
November 15th -0.216 -0.074 0.014
December 22nd -0.220 -0.075 0.014
January 26th -0.217 -0.074 0.014
Table B1
Probability of using public transport or private transport
Public Transport Private Transport | Not Public Transport
coef S.E. p-value coef S.E. p-value
Manufacturing industries, mining, quarrying and turf production, electricity, gas and water supply 0.692 0.073 0.000 0.677 0.022 0.000
Construction 0.362 0.076 0.000 1.214 0.024 0.000
Commerce 1.314 0.072 0.000 0.145 0.021 0.000
Transport Storage Communications 2.179 0.072 0.000 0.138 0.021 0.000
Public administration and defence 1.719 0.073 0.000 0.846 0.023 0.000
Education, health and social work 1.167 0.073 0.000 0.532 0.021 0.000
Other 1.424 0.073 0.000 0.043 0.022 0.055
Border Midland and Wester Region -1.457 0.011 0.000 0.257 0.005 0.000
Occupation 1 0.148 0.013 0.000 0.697 0.008 0.000
Occupation 2 0.098 0.015 0.000 0.412 0.010 0.000
Occupation 3 0.044 0.014 0.002 0.559 0.009 0.000
Occupation 4 0.402 0.012 0.000 0.287 0.007 0.000
Occupation 5 -1.643 0.099 0.000 -1.369 0.023 0.000
Occupation 6 -0.918 0.104 0.000 0.156 0.028 0.000
Occupation 7 -0.342 0.018 0.000 0.926 0.010 0.000
Occupation 8 0.040 0.015 0.009 0.259 0.009 0.000
Aged 20-24 -0.439 0.028 0.000 0.802 0.022 0.000
Aged 25-29 -0.705 0.027 0.000 1.136 0.022 0.000
Aged 30-34 -0.906 0.027 0.000 1.467 0.022 0.000
Aged 35-39 -1.147 0.027 0.000 1.662 0.022 0.000
Aged 40-44 -1.322 0.028 0.000 1.677 0.022 0.000
Aged 45-49 -1.377 0.028 0.000 1.613 0.022 0.000
Aged 50-54 -1.334 0.028 0.000 1.489 0.022 0.000
Aged 55-59 -1.289 0.029 0.000 1.363 0.022 0.000
Aged 60-64 -1.287 0.031 0.000 1.172 0.023 0.000
Aged 65-69 -1.350 0.041 0.000 0.816 0.026 0.000
Aged 70-74 -1.471 0.066 0.000 0.431 0.033 0.000
Aged 75+ -1.606 0.091 0.000 -0.035 0.039 0.360
University Education 0.242 0.007 0.000 0.016 0.005 0.002
Constant -2.839 0.077 0.000 -0.988 0.030 0.000
Pseudo R2 0.109 0.089
Number of Obs 1682588 1682588

  1. Note: Calculated on the basis of Census of Population Data.

Table C1
Regression models for having child care (Logit) and level of childcare expenditure
Coef. Std. Err. P>z Coef. Std. Err. P>z
Has Child Care Child Care Expenditure
Number of Children Aged 0 -4 0.833 0.073 0.000 28.0 4.8 0
Number of Children -0.018 0.057 0.750 0.0 4.0 0.992
Disposable Income (Equivalised) 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.1 0.0 0
Disposable Income (Equivalised) Squared 0.000 0.000 0.000
Number of Workers = 2 | Lone Parent Working 1.224 0.129 0.000 54.0 9.6 0
Constant -3.584 0.246 0.000 -15.5 13.1 0.238
R2 0.1437
Pseudo R2 0.1836
Observations 1,937 719

  1. Note: Calculated on the basis of Household Budget Survey 2015-2016.

Table D1
Age-income distribution of shareholdings proportion, 2018
Percentile in the income distribution
Age group Less than 20 20-39 40-59 60-79 80-100 Total
30 0.012643 0.013099 0.039393 0.056208 0.12114 0.054
40 0.020834 0.021585 0.064915 0.092623 0.199625 0.087
50 0.030946 0.032062 0.096424 0.137582 0.296521 0.133
60 0.037694 0.039053 0.117449 0.167581 0.361176 0.138
70 0.037777 0.039139 0.117707 0.16795 0.36197 0.083
Total 0.029736 0.027031 0.074783 0.101811 0.223442 0.09066

  1. Source: Household Finance and Consumption Survey, with Iterative Proportional Fitting

Table D2
Age-income distribution of shareholdings €000, 2018
Percentile in the income distribution
Age group Less than 20 20-39 40-59 60-79 80-100 Total
30 0.001 0.010 0.009 0.018 0.033 0.016
40 0.007 0.103 0.090 0.179 0.332 0.156
50 0.009 0.133 0.116 0.231 0.428 0.205
60 0.035 0.548 0.476 0.950 1.763 0.698
70 0.164 2.554 2.217 4.427 8.214 1.976
Total 0.069 0.703 0.379 0.558 0.930 0.518

  1. Source: Household Finance and Consumption Survey, with Iterative Proportional Fitting

Table E1
Distributional characteristics of income before and during crisis (€ per month per adult equivalent)
Before Crisis May 5th June 6th August 28th
Decile Market Income Gross Income Disposable Income Disposable Income* Market Income Gross Income Disposable Income Disposable Income* Market Income Gross Income Disposable Income Disposable Income* Market Income Gross Income Disposable Income Disposable Income*
1 504.0 960.3 878.6 522.2 306.5 1021.6 933.1 694.7 281.5 949.0 871.8 631.1 517.6 1135.2 1012.6 765.1
2 501.6 1294.6 1132.5 957.7 296.4 1299.7 1142.6 1043.8 316.7 1279.4 1124.9 1023.5 453.5 1360.5 1188.2 1081.8
3 746.0 1518.1 1315.7 1121.9 436.6 1480.5 1289.7 1179.8 477.1 1468.9 1278.1 1171.1 708.4 1630.9 1376.4 1260.7
4 1087.8 1765.3 1498.0 1278.3 706.7 1707.1 1455.7 1341.9 730.5 1704.4 1455.7 1339.2 839.0 1786.5 1524.5 1405.4
5 1398.3 2005.1 1665.3 1434.7 810.8 1842.5 1563.3 1471.1 912.7 1898.3 1590.0 1480.8 1196.8 1988.1 1636.2 1531.8
6 1959.9 2579.5 2020.2 1757.4 1258.4 2326.3 1861.1 1755.0 1272.9 2360.1 1880.4 1769.5 1689.9 2507.1 1972.0 1844.2
7 2361.9 2847.5 2203.0 1907.2 1613.6 2582.7 2028.6 1869.7 1642.3 2604.7 2044.0 1889.5 1966.8 2648.9 2046.3 1887.3
8 3053.2 3542.6 2680.3 2326.0 1946.1 3053.2 2354.0 2204.8 2139.6 3123.1 2400.6 2260.8 2377.3 3146.4 2423.9 2263.1
9 3859.7 4270.8 3083.2 2740.6 2740.6 3677.0 2694.9 2535.1 2694.9 3631.3 2672.1 2535.1 3106.0 3814.0 2786.3 2603.6
10 7350.1 7620.7 4599.5 4193.6 5298.4 6087.5 3787.8 3584.9 5659.1 6403.2 3900.5 3697.6 5817.0 6335.5 3923.1 3720.1
Total 2362.0 2916.3 2149.9 1860.7 1600.4 2554.8 1945.0 1798.0 1675.1 2603.0 1957.1 1810.0 1930.6 2699.4 2019.7 1867.9
November 13th December 22nd January 26th
Decile Market Income Gross Income Disposable Income Disposable Income* Market Income Gross Income Disposable Income Disposable Income* Market Income Gross Income Disposable Income Disposable Income*
1 342.8 962.6 880.9 635.7 295.1 933.1 862.7 624.3 347.4 958.1 878.6 635.7
2 352.2 1289.6 1132.5 1031.1 334.4 1287.0 1129.9 1028.6 334.4 1289.6 1135.0 1031.1
3 500.2 1463.2 1278.1 1171.1 508.9 1492.1 1295.4 1176.9 523.4 1477.6 1286.8 1168.2
4 778.1 1725.6 1471.5 1352.4 719.9 1683.3 1442.4 1333.9 738.4 1696.5 1453.0 1341.9
5 954.0 1903.2 1597.3 1488.1 990.4 1903.2 1590.0 1483.2 944.3 1869.2 1570.6 1468.7
6 1432.0 2434.8 1918.9 1796.0 1374.1 2381.8 1890.0 1779.1 1403.0 2393.8 1897.2 1781.5
7 1816.7 2670.9 2086.0 1929.3 1726.2 2648.9 2072.7 1918.2 1796.8 2648.9 2066.1 1909.4
8 2302.7 3262.9 2493.8 2330.7 2232.8 3216.3 2470.5 2312.0 2319.0 3239.6 2470.5 2316.7
9 3106.0 3905.4 2854.8 2694.9 2946.1 3836.8 2809.1 2626.4 2969.0 3791.2 2786.3 2626.4
10 5862.0 6515.9 3990.7 3787.8 6132.6 6763.9 4126.0 3923.1 6132.6 6718.8 4103.4 3900.5
Total 1810.0 2675.3 2005.3 1853.4 1790.8 2675.3 2002.9 1853.4 1817.3 2675.3 2000.4 1853.4

  1. Note: Disposable income* stands for household equivalized disposable income adjusted for housing, work related expenses and capital losses.

Data and code availability

The analysis is based on EU-SILC data which can only be accessed by submitting a EUROSTAT application. The access to the code is subject to authors' approval. Those interested should contact the authors directly.

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