Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Monetary Child Poverty in Morocco
- Université Mohammed VI Polytechnique - FGSES – AIRESS, Morocco
Cite this article
as: T. Abdelkhalek, D. Boccanfuso, L. Savard; 2022; Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Monetary Child Poverty in Morocco; International Journal of Microsimulation; 15(3); 15-37.
doi: 10.34196/ijm.00268
Figures
Figure 1
Remittances from Moroccan migrants. Source: Office des changes (Séries statistiques | Office des Changes (oc.gov.ma)).
Figure 2
Impact of COVID-19 on global poverty. Source: Gerzon Mahler et al. (2020).
Figure 3
Synthesis of the model. Source: Authors.
Figure 4
Schematic representation of the simulations
Figure 5
Incidence of poverty by age group and place of residence
Figure 6
Gini index – 2019. Source: Authors’ computation based on the ONDH - EPM (2019 wave).
Figure 7
Gini index by place of residence and scenarios
Figure 8
Average per capita expenditure density curves - Reference and COVID 19. Source: Authors’ computation based on the ONDH - EPM (2019 wave),Note: The vertical lines are the poverty line, the vulnerability line, the median, and 2.5 times the median respectively.
Figure 9
Density curves of the average expenditure per capita at the base and under scenario 2.. Source: Authors’ computation based on the ONDH - EPM (2019 wave).Note: The vertical lines are the poverty line, the vulnerability line, the median, and 2.5 times the median respectively.
Figure 10
Incidence curves on per capita spending between the base situation and scenarios. Source: Authors’ computation based on the ONDH - EPM (2019 wave).
Figure 11
Contribution of the components to the total variation of the indices.23 (A) Urban (B) Rural.. Source: Authors’ computation based on the ONDH - EPM (2019 wave).
Figure 12
Contribution of the components to the total change in the indices for children under 18. (A) Urban (B) Rural.. Source: Authors’ computation based on the ONDH - EPM (2019 wave).
Figure A1
Social Class Thresholds - Baseline and Scenarios
Tables
Table 1
Share of companies in permanent/temporary lockdown by sector of activity (during the period of lockdown)*
| All sectors | 57% |
|---|---|
| Metal and mechanical industries | 73% |
| Electrical and electronic industries | 56% |
| Chemical and pararchemical industries | 55% |
| Textile and leather industries | 76% |
| Agro-industries | 34% |
| Mining | 32% |
| Energy | 63% |
| Fishing | 24% |
| Services to individuals | 60% |
| Education and human health | 43% |
| Corporate services | 65% |
| Real estate activities | 63% |
| Information and telecommunication | 48% |
| Hotel and restaurant | 89% |
| Transport and storage | 54% |
| Trade | 46% |
| Construction | 59% |
-
Source: Haut-Commissariat au Plan (2020a).
-
*
The lockdown measures started on March 9th and a first wave of restrictions were removed on June 9th and a second wage at the end of July 2020.
Table 2
Distribution of households and individuals in the ONDH 2019 EPM sample by area of residence
| Freq. | % | |
|---|---|---|
| Households | ||
| Urban | 9 845 | 58.3% |
| Rural | 7 034 | 41.7% |
| Morocco | 16 879 | 100% |
| Individuals | ||
| Urban | 39 033 | 54.4% |
| Rural | 32 765 | 45.6% |
| Morocco | 71 798 | 100% |
-
Source: Authors’ computation based on the ONDH Household Panel Survey (2019 wave).
Table 3
Distribution of the Moroccan population by area of residence
| Individuals | Freq. | % |
|---|---|---|
| Urban | 2 2369 714 | 62.9% |
| Rural | 13 201 998 | 37.1% |
| Morocco | 35 571 711 | 100% |
-
Source: Authors’ computation based on the ONDH Household Panel Survey (2019 wave).
Table 4
Average and median annual per capita expenditure of Moroccans (in MAD) in 2019
| Average | Median | |
|---|---|---|
| Morocco | 18 769.68 | 14 437.59 |
| Urban | 22 724.15 | 17 500.8 |
| Rural | 12 069.16 | 10 092.96 |
-
Source: Authors’ computation based on the ONDH - EPM (2019 wave).
Table 5
Individual poverty rate (%) - 2019
| Share of pop. | FGT0 | Contribution FGT0 | FGT1 | Contribution FGT1 | FGT2 | Contribution FGT2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morocco | 1.19 | 0.13 | 100.00 | 0.02 | 100.00 | ||
| Urban | 62.89 | 0.25 | 13.06 | 0.02 | 8.00 | 0.00 | 4.58 |
| Rural | 37.11 | 2.79 | 86.94 | 0.33 | 92.00 | 0.06 | 95.42 |
-
Source: Authors’ computation based on the ONDH - EPM (2019 wave).
Table 6
Individual poverty rate 2019 - by age group
| Poverty incidence | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Share in the population | FGT0 | Contribution to FGT0 | |
| Morocco | 100% | 1.19% | 100% |
| - 5 Years | 8.2% | 1.8% | 12.5% |
| + 5 to - 18 Years | 23.2% | 1.9% | 36.1% |
| 18 and + | 68.6% | 0.9% | 51.4% |
-
Source: Authors’ computation based on the ONDH - EPM (2019 wave).
Table 7
Incidence of poverty and vulnerability by place of residence and scenarios
| Poor (FGT0) | Vulnerable | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | Urban | 0.2% | 2.8% |
| Rural | 2.8% | 15.1% | |
| Morocco | 1.2% | 7.4% | |
| COVID | Urban | 5.5% | 5.6% |
| Rural | 9.9% | 17.0% | |
| Morocco | 7.2% | 9.8% | |
| Scenario 1 | Urban | 2.4% | 5.4% |
| Rural | 5.1% | 10.9% | |
| Morocco | 3.4% | 7.4% | |
| Scenario 2 | Urban | 1.4% | 4.7% |
| Rural | 3.2% | 9.3% | |
| Morocco | 2.1% | 6.4% |
-
Source: Authors’ computation based on the ONDH - EPM (2019 wave).
Table 8
Incidence of poverty by age group (%) and area of residence
| Base | COVID-19 | Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poverty | |||||
| Morocco | - 5 years | 1.8 | 10.1 | 5.1 | 3.2 |
| From 5 to - 18 | 1.9 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 3.1 | |
| 18 and + Years | 0.9 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 1.6 | |
| Urban | - 5 years | 0.6 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 2.4 |
| From 5 to - 18 | 0.3 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 2.3 | |
| 18 and + Years | 0.2 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | |
| Rural | - 5 years | 3.7 | 11.8 | 7.0 | 4.5 |
| From 5 to - 18 | 3.9 | 12.7 | 6.6 | 4.1 | |
| 18 and + Years | 2.2 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 2.7 | |
| Vulnerability | |||||
| Morocco | - 5 years | 11.4 | 22.5 | 14.7 | 11.4 |
| From 5 to - 18 | 12.7 | 23.2 | 15.3 | 12.0 | |
| 18 and + Years | 6.8 | 14.3 | 8.8 | 7.0 | |
| Urban | - 5 years | 4.4 | 16.0 | 11.4 | 9.2 |
| From 5 to - 18 | 4.6 | 15.5 | 11.1 | 8.9 | |
| 18 and + Years | 2.5 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 5.0 | |
| Rural | - 5 years | 22.0 | 32.1 | 19.7 | 14.9 |
| From 5 to - 18 | 23.3 | 33.5 | 20.7 | 16.1 | |
| 18 and + Years | 15.0 | 23.3 | 13.5 | 10.7 | |
-
Source: Authors’ computation based on the ONDH - EPM (2019 wave).
Table 9
Cost-effectiveness of scenario 2
| The total cost of the measure - MAD | Cost per capita (total population) - MAD | Cost per capita (beneficiary population) - MAD | Per capita cost per child under 18 out of poverty - MAD | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario 2 complete | Morocco | 172 900 000 | 4.86 | 6.33 | 789.87 |
| Urban | 78 186 400 | 3.50 | 5.06 | 768.2 | |
| Rural | 94 713 000 | 7.17 | 7.97 | 808.69 | |
| Scenario 2 School Aid | Morocco | 20 615 400 | 0.58 | 2.12 | 94.18 |
| Urban | 5 954 400 | 0.27 | 1.41 | 58.50 | |
| Rural | 14 661 000 | 1.11 | 2.67 | 125.18 |
-
Source: Authors’ computation based on the ONDH - EPM (2019 wave).
Data and code availability
The data used in this analysis are not accessible as they were obtained via an agreement between ONDH (Observatoire National de Développement Humain) and University Mohammed VI Polytechnic and executable codes of the model will be made available upon request.
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