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SWITCH: A Tax-Benefit Model for Ireland Linked to Survey and Register Data

  1. Claire Keane
  2. Karina Doorley
  3. Theano Kakoulidou  Is a corresponding author
  4. Seamus O’Malley
  1. Economic and Social Research Institute, Ireland
Research article
Volume 16(1) Spring 2023
Cite this article as: C. Keane, K. Doorley, T. Kakoulidou, S. O’Malley; 2023; SWITCH: A Tax-Benefit Model for Ireland Linked to Survey and Register Data; International Journal of Microsimulation; 16(1); 65-88. doi: 10.34196/ijm.00275
1 figure and 7 tables

Figures

Figure 1
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The proportion of workers receiving the PUP and the wage subsidy by gender and age category in August 2020. Note: SWITCH simulations are based on v2.1 F indicates female, M indicates male.

Tables

Table 1
Uprating Factors
IndexSourceIncome components uprated
Average earnings per week, €https://cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?maintable=EHQ03&PLanguage=0Employment income
Self-employed income (2006=1)https://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?maintable=RVA01&PLanguage=0 up to 2018, GNP per capita after 2018Self-employed income
GDP per capita (2007=1)https://statbank.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?maintable=NQQ40&PLanguage=0Investment income
https://cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?maintable=PEA01&PLanguage=0
Consumer price index (2007=1)https://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?maintable=CPA01&PLanguage=0Non-simulated benefits, asset income, benefit-in-kind, expenditure.
Table 2
Control Totals Used in Weighting Process
SILC control totalsSWITCH control totalsSource for controls
Household location (8 NUTS3 regions)Household location (8 NUTS3 regions)LFS (CSO Ireland)
Household compositionHousehold compositionLFS (CSO Ireland)
Demographics: 4 age groups by sexMale demographics: 4 age groupsProjected Census (CSO Ireland)
Female demographics: 5 year-band age groups up to 64 and one for all above 65 years oldProjected Census (CSO Ireland)
Employment and unemployment levelsLFS (CSO Ireland)
Forecasted income distribution for employees and self-employedOffice of the Revenue Commissioners
Number of recipients of key benefitsAnnual Statistics Report of the Department of Social protection
Table 3
Simulated and non-simulated social welfare schemes
SchemeSimulation Status
Child BenefitFully Simulated
Early Childhood Care & Education SchemeFully Simulated
Job Seekers AllowanceFully Simulated
Job Seekers BenefitFully Simulated
Jobseekers Transitional PaymentFully Simulated
Maternity BenefitFully Simulated
National Childcare SchemeFully Simulated
One-Parent Family PaymentFully Simulated
Pandemic Unemployment PaymentFully Simulated
Rent or Mortgage SupplementFully Simulated
State Pension (Non-Contributory)Fully Simulated
Temporary Wage Subsidy SchemeFully Simulated
Widow’s Non-Contributory PensionFully Simulated
Working Family PaymentFully Simulated
National Childcare SchemeFully Simulated
Early Childhood Care and Education SchemeFully Simulated
Medical and GP visit cardFully Simulated
Employment Wage Subsidy SchemeFully Simulated
Pandemic Unemployment PaymentFully Simulated
Carer’s AllowancePart-simulated
Disability AllowancePart-simulated
Fuel AllowancePart-simulated
Illness BenefitPart-simulated
Injury BenefitPart-simulated
Invalidity PensionPart-simulated
State Pension (Contributory)Part-simulated
State Pension (Transition)Part-simulated
Supplementary Welfare AllowancePart-simulated
Widow’s Contributory PensionPart-simulated
Education Grant (from FAS)Non-simulated
Grants/Education (Training) AllowancesNon-simulated
Household Benefits PackageNon-simulated
Minor Social Assistance Benefits*Non-simulated
Non-Irish Social Welfare PaymentsNon-simulated
Residual Family Allowances†Non-simulated
  1. *

    This aggregate benefit is composed of monies received from charities and local government

  2. †

    This aggregate benefit is composed of Back to School Clothing & Footwear Allowance, Carer’s Benefit, Deserted Wife’s Allowance, Deserted Wife’s Benefit, Guardian’s Payment Contributory, Guardian’s Payment Non-Contributory, Special Diet Supplement

Table 4
Number of Taxpayer Units by Income Bands - Employees and Self Employed
Gross Annual Income Range2019 Admin Estimates*SILC 2019 weight†SWITCH revised 2019 weight
NRatio to 2019 AdminNRatio to 2019 Admin
10000 - 1200083,39867,99582%83,398100%
12000 - 15000128,50477,99961%128,504100%
15000 - 1700087,41157,91466%87,411100%
17000 - 20000132,04193,86471%132,040100%
20000 - 25000222,622148,25967%222,622100%
25000 - 2700090,61460,30567%90,614100%
27000 - 30000128,09881,69964%128,098100%
30000 - 35000197,218124,73863%197,218100%
35000 - 40000175,005120,62469%175,005100%
40000 - 50000246,907169,93769%246,907100%
50000 - 60000176,301150,00485%176,301100%
60000 - 70000129,339100,13477%129,339100%
70000 - 7500052,15234,14465%52,152100%
75000 - 8000044,20131,98772%44,201100%
80000 - 9000069,28264,74693%69,283100%
90000 - 10000051,72776,357148%51,726100%
100000 - 150000118,559121,949103%118,559100%
150000 - 20000033,65633,653100%33,656100%
200000 - 27500017,01413,797‡81%17,014‡100%
Over - 27500016,26410,380‡64%16,264‡100%

  1. Source: Office of the Revenue Commissioners available at https://www.revenue.ie/en/corporate/information-about-revenue/statistics/income-distributions/income-tax-distributions-interactive-tables.aspx

  2. *

    The last year for which data about the income distribution are available from Revenue is 2018. To align available information about income with the year of collection of the SWITCH input data, we forecasted the 2019 income distribution. The forecasted income distribution was created by applying the average annual change for years 2015 to 2018 to each income band to 2018’s income distribution.

  3. †

    The weight used in this analysis is the one described in CSO SILC 2019 i.e., it is based on demographics (4 age groups by sex), household location (8 NNUTS3 regions) and household composition.

  4. ‡

    Statistics of lower statistical reliability due to low number of unweighted observations (30-50).

Table 5
Benefit Recipient Numbers Comparison, 2019
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
Scheme typeScheme Name2019 Admin*EUROMOD 2019†SWITCH revised 2019 weight (output data)SWITCH revised 2019 weight (input data)SILC 2019 weight (output data)SILC 2019 weight (input data)
NRatio to 2019 AdminNRatio to 2019 AdminNRatio to 2019 AdminNRatio to 2019 AdminNRatio 2019 to Admin
PensionsState Pension (Contributory)‡367,133358,09898%356,99897%367,133100%365,23799%634,000173%
State Pension (Non-Contributory)94,85489,11794%86,12291%94,954100%84,84689%71,00075%
Widow’s Pension (Contributory)‡115,152128,898112%128,898112%115,152100%115,152100%31,00027%
Widow’s Pension (Non-Contributory)‡1,373§§§§§§§§9,000655%
Working age income supportSupplementary Welfare Allowance15,77016,302¶103%§§15,770¶100%§§00%
Jobseeker’s Allowance123,633164,390133%148,097120%123,633100%85,13968%231,000187%
Jobseeker’s Benefit34,14141,523122%41,523122%34,141100%34,141100%112,000328%
One Parent Family Payment39,53337,40595%42,389107%39,533100%46,006116%107,000271%
Maternity Benefit21,27918,184 ¶85%37,681177%20,209 ¶95%37,964178%16,00075%
Illness, Disability & CaringCarer’s Allowance84,02898,877118%97,998117%87,559104%85,148101%n/an/a
Illness Benefit49,31348,14298%46,95895%49,313100%47,81197%4,0008%
Invalidity Pension58,16853,02591%53,02591%58,168100%58,168100%197,000339%
Disability Allowance146,755178,104121%166,664114%146,755100%136,43193%157,000107%
Injury Benefit1,314§§§§§§§§5,000381%
Child-related paymentsWorking Family Payment53,10447,56490%54,243102%53,104100%58,066106%15,00028%
Child Benefit637,007**695,878109%**675,319106%688,000108%
  1. *

    Source 2019 SISWS file: https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/02f594-annual-sws-statistical-information-report/

  2. †

    Source: EUROMOD Country Report Ireland 2018-2021, Table 4.7. Recipient numbers are rounded to the nearest thousand.

  3. ‡

    SISWS 2019 figures adjusted to exclude recipients living outside the state and those living in long-term residential care.

  4. §

    Statistics are disclosed due to small sample sizes to ensure adherence to CSO Statistical Disclosure Control rules.

  5. Lower statistical reliability due to a small number of unweighted observations.

  6. **

    Child benefit is reported at a child level in the SILC data but at a recipient (i.e. parental) level in SWITCH and in administrative data, so the SILC input observations are excluded due to non-comparability.

Table 6
Benefit Expenditure Comparison, 2019 (€, thousands)
(1)(2)(3)(4)
Scheme typeScheme Name2019 Admin Numbers*SILC 2019 weight (output data)SWITCH revised 2019 weight (output data)EUROMOD 2019†
ExpenditureRatio to 2019 AdminExpenditureRatio to 2019 AdminExpenditureRatio to 2019 Admin
PensionsState Pension (Contributory)‡5,6034,95989%5,05290%9,137163%
State Pension (Non-Contributory)1,0431,02198%99495%89486%
Widow’s Pension (Contributory)‡15591,685108%1,48996%35623%
Widow’s Pension (Non-Contributory) ‡14§§§§72516%
Working age income supportSupplementary Welfare Allowance120§§§§11%
Jobseeker’s Allowance1,6291,643101%93157%1,50192%
Jobseeker’s Benefit348351101%28080%400115%
One Parent Family Payment53349793%48591%1,329249%
Maternity Benefit26717465%16361%11342%
Illness, Disability & CaringCarer’s Allowance8631,032120%900104%n/an/a
Illness Benefit60757595%56192%274%
Invalidity Pension72869295%773106%2,540349%
Disability Allowance1,7061,957115%1,53090%1,799105%
Injury Benefit14§§§§41301%
Child-related paymentsWorking Family Payment39726066%23258%8020%
Child Benefit2,1032,06798%1,99295%2,03497%
  1. *

    Source 2019 SISWS file: https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/02f594-annual-sws-statistical-information-report/

  2. †

    source: EUROMOD Country Report Ireland 2018-2021, Table 4.8.

  3. ‡

    SISWS 2019 figures adjusted to exclude recipients living outside the state and those living in long-term residential care

  4. §

    Statistics are disclosed due to Secondary Disclosure Controls.

Table 7
Non-Cash Benefits Comparison
Non-cash Benefit2019 Admin NumbersSILC 2019 weight (output data)SWITCH revised 2019 weight (output data)
NRatio to 2019 AdminNRatio to 2019 Admin
Medical Card1,544,374*1,389,27290%1,004,88165%
GP Visit Card524,494*573,932109%659,999126%
Early Childhood Care & Education Scheme118,896†71,65660%75,63564%
National Childcare Scheme62,686‡154,926247%5,441264%
  1. *

    source: https://www.hse.ie/eng/staff/pcrs/pcrs-publications/annual-report-2019.pdf p.16-17.

  2. †

    source: data for 2017 from DCEDIY.

  3. ‡

    source: administrative numbers for the monthly average participants between 2019-2020 from DCEDIY.

Data and code availability

The SWITCH model is based on the EUROMOD platform, available at https://euromod-web.jrc.ec.europa.eu/. We are happy to provide the front-end of the model upon request but due to restrictions imposed to us by the Irish Central Statistics Office, who provide the underlying data for the model, we cannot provide the input dataset the SWITCH model runs on. Only those appointed Officer of Statistics for the underlying data can access it and this is restricted to those residents in Ireland. We are committed of preserving the data and model for a period of no less than five years following publication of the manuscript, and to providing reasonable assistance to requests for clarification and replication.

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