Micro-Macro Simulation of Technological Systems: Economic Effects of Spillovers
Cite this article
as: B. Carlsson, G. Eliasson, E. Taymaz; 2024; Micro-Macro Simulation of Technological Systems: Economic Effects of Spillovers; International Journal of Microsimulation; 17(2); 213-232.
doi: 10.34196/ijm.00297
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Figures
Figure 1
Incremental and Radical Innovation.
Figure 2
Manufacturing Output (index, NETRANDOM - 100).
Figure 3
Learning Rate (average annual growth rate per decade, percent).
Figure 4
R&D Stock (end of period, billion SEK).
Figure 5
Rate of Return (average annual return per decade, percent).
Figure 6
Stock of General Knowledge (end of period, billion SEK).
Figure 7
Stock of Special Skills (end of period, billion SEK).
Figure 8
Labor Productivity Growth Rate (percent per year).
Tables
Table 1
The markets for technology diffusion.
| 1. | Competent people move between firms (labor market turnover). |
| 2. | New firms are spun of from firms or universities (innovative entry or entrepreneurship). |
| 3. | Firms appropriate technology through licensing or learning from other firms (Imitation). |
| 4. | Subcontractors learn from customer firms (competent purchasing). |
| 5. | Technology diffusion is administered within firms (internal technology transfer). |
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Source: Eliasson (1997)
Table 2
Summary of Simulation Results
| PERIOD | NETRANDOM | NETGENHK | NETINTER | NETLINK | LOWRECEPT | LOWCONNECT | NORECEPT | NOCONNECT | NONET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GNP growth rate (average annual growth rate per decade, percent) | |||||||||
| 1 | 3.38 | 3.24 | 3.60 | 3.57 | 2.88 | 2.92 | 2.60 | 1.99 | 1.36 |
| 2 | 3.05 | 3.04 | 2.95 | 2.80 | 3.04 | 2.84 | 2.35 | 2.11 | 1.59 |
| 3 | 3.57 | 3.44 | 3.73 | 3.71 | 2.46 | 2.65 | 1.55 | 2.71 | 1.08 |
| 4 | 3.91 | 3.89 | 3.72 | 3.82 | 4.16 | 1.14 | -0.48 | 3.14 | 0.26 |
| 5 | 3.64 | 3.35 | 2.39 | 3.87 | 3.83 | -1.61 | -1.31 | 3.04 | -0.64 |
| Avg. | 3.51 | 3.39 | 3.28 | 3.55 | 3.27 | 1.59 | 0.94 | 2.60 | 0.73 |
| Manufacturing growth rate (average annual growth rate per decade, percent) | |||||||||
| 1 | 4.55 | 4.10 | 4.76 | 4.75 | 3.70 | 3.57 | 3.38 | 2.72 | 1.65 |
| 2 | 3.95 | 3.93 | 3.61 | 3.36 | 4.21 | 3.57 | 3.08 | 2.94 | 2.37 |
| 3 | 4.39 | 4.20 | 4.38 | 4.40 | 2.98 | 3.43 | 1.84 | 3.93 | 1.10 |
| 4 | 4.32 | 4.17 | 4.39 | 4.25 | 4.46 | 0.19 | -2.17 | 3.53 | -0.48 |
| 5 | 4.04 | 3.51 | 1.10 | 4.22 | 4.08 | -3.28 | -2.58 | 3.36 | 1.95 |
| Avg. | 4.25 | 3.98 | 3.65 | 4.20 | 3.89 | 1.50 | 0.71 | 3.30 | 0.54 |
| GNP (relative to NETRANDOM, end of period) | |||||||||
| 1 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.02 | 1.02 | 0.95 | 0.98 | 0.90 | 0.87 | 0.81 |
| 2 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 1.04 | 1.01 | 0.96 | 0.98 | 0.84 | 0.80 | 0.71 |
| 3 | 1.00 | 0.94 | 1.01 | 0.99 | 0.82 | 0.90 | 0.66 | 0.70 | 0.55 |
| 4 | 1.00 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 1.00 | 0.88 | 0.65 | 0.42 | 0.68 | 0.38 |
| 5 | 1.00 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 1.01 | 0.85 | 0.38 | 0.26 | 0.64 | 0.25 |
| Manufacturing output (relative to NETRANDOM, end of period) | |||||||||
| 1 | 1.00 | 0.98 | 1.02 | 1.03 | 0.91 | 0.96 | 0.85 | 0.84 | 0.74 |
| 2 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.05 | 1.01 | 0.98 | 0.95 | 0.80 | 0.78 | 0.65 |
| 3 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 0.97 | 0.96 | 0.78 | 0.84 | 0.58 | 0.68 | 0.48 |
| 4 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.92 | 0.97 | 0.86 | 0.55 | 0.30 | 0.66 | 0.29 |
| 5 | 1.00 | 0.96 | 0.78 | 1.00 | 0.79 | 0.26 | 0.15 | 0.64 | 0.16 |
| Rate of return (average annual return per decade, percent) | |||||||||
| 1 | -1.82 | -1.13 | -0.90 | -0.90 | -1.81 | -0.81 | -0.88 | -0.59 | -1.22 |
| 2 | -6.72 | -6.62 | -4.35 | -5.92 | -7.44 | -7.20 | -5.71 | -6.75 | -6.80 |
| 3 | 4.71 | 4.89 | 11.10 | 3.97 | -0.21 | 2.04 | 1.01 | 0.31 | -5.40 |
| 4 | 16.76 | 20.49 | 22.93 | 17.75 | 7.44 | 21.29 | 10.24 | 4.68 | 0.61 |
| 5 | 22.77 | 30.53 | 21.40 | 29.78 | 14.28 | 26.10 | 9.52 | 6.23 | 1.40 |
| Avg. | 7.14 | 9.63 | 10.04 | 8.94 | 2.45 | 8.28 | 2.84 | 0.78 | -2.28 |
| Stock of special skills (end of period, billion SEK) | |||||||||
| l | 102 | 97 | 101 | 112 | 86 | 98 | 78 | 93 | 80 |
| 2 | 143 | 147 | 156 | 122 | 137 | 125 | 91 | 140 | 89 |
| 3 | 215 | 125 | 184 | 175 | 71 | 125 | 90 | 141 | 99 |
| 4 | 239 | 202 | 322 | 349 | 221 | 68 | 60 | 157 | 68 |
| 5 | 278 | 348 | 352 | 466 | 212 | 55 | 51 | 191 | 56 |
| Stock of general knowledge (end of period, billion SEK) | |||||||||
| 1 | 111 | 104 | 110 | 119 | 107 | 103 | 104 | 104 | 106 |
| 2 | 178 | 162 | 168 | 170 | 150 | 158 | 114 | 140 | 111 |
| 3 | 261 | 237 | 286 | 228 | 215 | 201 | 119 | 190 | 121 |
| 4 | 379 | 314 | 470 | 377 | 285 | 127 | 77 | 237 | 87 |
| 5 | 521 | 549 | 528 | 683 | 383 | 81 | 56 | 330 | 66 |
| R&D stock (end of period, billion SEK) | |||||||||
| 1 | 79 | 70 | 72 | 92 | 65 | 67 | 64 | 54 | 55 |
| 2 | 161 | 155 | 159 | 153 | 131 | 140 | 95 | 114 | 83 |
| 3 | 260 | 205 | 300 | 208 | 187 | 189 | 109 | 135 | 98 |
| 4 | 355 | 304 | 469 | 401 | 245 | 125 | 77 | 169 | 74 |
| 5 | 472 | 346 | 526 | 826 | 325 | 94 | 62 | 241 | 59 |
| Learning rate (average annual growth rate per decade, percent) | |||||||||
| 1 | 6.52 | 5.91 | 5.51 | 6.15 | 3.18 | 5.58 | 4.14 | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| 2 | 3.69 | 4.19 | 4.04 | 3.59 | 3.26 | 4.95 | 2.36 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| 3 | 4.29 | 2.45 | 3.42 | 3.78 | 3.10 | 3.45 | 2.20 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| 4 | 3.50 | 3.38 | 4.90 | 4.74 | 3.88 | 1.98 | 0.49 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| 5 | 3.50 | 3.20 | 3.67 | 4.10 | 3.00 | 0.47 | 0.25 | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| Avg. | 4.30 | 3.83 | 4.31 | 4.47 | 3.68 | 3.29 | 1.89 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Investment (average annual investment per decade, MSEK) | |||||||||
| 1 | 16,347 | 16,022 | 16,006 | 16,818 | 16,014 | 15,791 | 16,374 | 19,200 | 18,183 |
| 2 | 25,999 | 24,512 | 27,722 | 23,004 | 26,564 | 25,190 | 21,747 | 33,701 | 31,146 |
| 3 | 38,202 | 37,798 | 32,279 | 16,612 | 51,617 | 23,878 | 23,514 | 95,112 | 53,449 |
| 4 | 125,990 | 101,932 | 54,828 | 31,533 | 100,864 | 11,657 | 22,117 | 245,300 | 59,344 |
| 5 | 348,524 | 215,376 | 91,689 | 213,401 | 239,100 | 11,704 | 25,017 | 812,504 | 93,739 |
| Labor productivity growth rate (average annual growth rate per decade, percent) | |||||||||
| 1 | 2.32 | 2.46 | 2.29 | 3.14 | 0.95 | 1.79 | 0.93 | 0.40 | -0.50 |
| 2 | 4.37 | 4.62 | 4.41 | 2.82 | 4.40 | 3.71 | 2.75 | 3.27 | 1.52 |
| 3 | 4.95 | 2.64 | 5.82 | 5.47 | 2.05 | 3.97 | 1.80 | 1.69 | 0.87 |
| 4 | 3.23 | 4.67 | 3.86 | 6.09 | 3.74 | 0.29 | -0.43 | 1.77 | -0.41 |
| 5 | 3.57 | 4.80 | 0.02 | 3.37 | 2.95 | -1.00 | -0.77 | 2.22 | -0.87 |
| Avg. | 3.69 | 3.84 | 3.28 | 4.58 | 2.82 | 1.75 | 0.86 | 1.87 | 0.12 |
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