Figures and tables in The Public Policy Preference Calculator (TriplePC): Developing a comprehensive welfare policy microsimulation

The Public Policy Preference Calculator (TriplePC): Developing a comprehensive welfare policy microsimulation

Graham Stark, Elliot A Johnson, Howard Reed, Daniel Nettle, Matthew T Johnson

Department of Social Work, Education and Community Wellbeing, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom; Landman Economics, Colchester, United Kingdom; Institut Jean Nicod, École normale supérieure, Paris, France

Abstract

Welfare policies have often been assessed on their financial impacts, for example, their effects on net household incomes and marginal and average tax rates. However, welfare policies can also have a substantial effect on population health and wellbeing. In addition, politicians must consider the electoral implications of policies that would affect large sections of the population. In this article we describe a new microsimulation model with a public-facing user interface, the Public Policy Preference Calculator (TriplePC), which enables automated assessment of economic and health impacts as well as public preferences for particular, customisable welfare policies. The TriplePC uses data from, and regressions based on, major UK sources such as the Family Resources Survey, Understanding Society: The UK Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS) and the Wealth and Assets Survey, alongside our own conjoint experimental surveys on public preferences. While the design of the conjoint survey necessitated relatively strong assumptions in some areas, the TriplePC’s ability to simultaneously model the financial, health and political implications of a policy is, we believe, unique. TriplePC was developed over approximately four months as part of a project on income and health funded by National Institute for Health and Care Research. We view TriplePC as a highly promising prototype rather than the finished article; in this paper we will describe it ‘warts and all’, highlighting areas of particular uncertainty and the lessons learned we hope to apply to future, fuller developed versions.

This article contains 1 figure and 1 table.

Figures

**Figure 1.** TriplePC interface example scenario.

Tables

Table 1. Conjoint experiment attributes and levels used as TriplePC inputs and outcomes.

Attribute	Levels
Payment size	Child - £0; Adult - £63; Pensioner - £190 Child - £41; Adult - £63; Pensioner - £190 Child - £0; Adult - £145; Pensioner - £190 Child - £41; Adult - £145; Pensioner - £190 Child - £63; Adult - £145; Pensioner - £190 Child - £63; Adult - £190; Pensioner - £190 Child - £95; Adult - £190; Pensioner - £230 Child - £41; Adult - £230; Pensioner - £230 Child - £95; Adult - £230; Pensioner - £230
Income tax	Basic rate - 20%; Higher rate - 40%; Additional rate - 45% Basic rate - 30%; Higher rate - 50%; Additional rate - 60% Basic rate - 40%; Higher rate - 60%; Additional rate - 70% Basic rate - 48%; Higher rate - 68%; Additional rate - 78% Basic rate - 50%; Higher rate - 70%; Additional rate - 80% Basic rate - 65%; Higher rate - 85%; Additional rate - 95%
Other funding	Increased government borrowing Removal of income tax-free personal allowance Corporation tax increase Tax for businesses based on carbon emissions Tax for individuals based on carbon emissions Tax on wealth VAT increase
Poverty	Decreased by 100% Decreased by 75% Decreased by 50% Decreased by 25% Decreased by 10% Decreased by 5% Increased by 5% Increased by 10% Increased by 25% Increased by 50%
Inequality	Decreased by 50% Decreased by 25% Decreased by 10% Decreased by 5% Increased by 5% Increased by 10% Increased by 25% Increased by 50%
Life expectancy	0 more or less years on average 5 fewer years on average 3 fewer years on average 1 less year on average 1 more year on average 3 more years on average 5 more years on average
Anxiety and depression	Same number of cases 50% fewer cases 25% fewer cases 10% fewer cases 5% fewer cases 5% more cases 10% more cases 25% more cases 50% more cases
Conditionality	People in and out of work are entitled People who are not disabled are required to look for work Only people in work are entitled Only people out of work are entitled
Means testing	People with any or no amount of income are entitled to the full benefit Only those with incomes less than £20k are entitled to the full benefit Only those with incomes less than £50k are entitled to the full benefit Only those with incomes less than £125k are entitled to the full benefit
Universality	Anyone residing in the UK for more than six months are entitled Only citizens and permanent residents are entitled Only citizens are entitled