Figures and data in Modelling the Distributional Effects of the Cost-of-Living Crisis in Turkey and the South Caucasus: A Microsimulation Analysis

Cite this article as: Z. Gizem Can, C. O’Donoghue, D. M Sologon, D. Smith, U. Murray; 2025; Modelling the Distributional Effects of the Cost-of-Living Crisis in Turkey and the South Caucasus: A Microsimulation Analysis; International Journal of Microsimulation; 18(3); 26-49. doi: 10.34196/ijm.00325

Article
Figures and data
Jump to

7 figures and 10 tables

Figures

Figure 1

Download asset Open asset

Annualised price inflation in Turkey, the South Caucasus and European Union neighbours.

Figure 2

Download asset Open asset

Figure 3

Download asset Open asset

Budget shares of expenditure components across equivalised disposable income quintiles

Figure 4

Download asset Open asset

Budget and savings shares in household income across equivalised disposable income quintiles

Figure 5

Download asset Open asset

Average Price Change by Price Change Decile

Figure 6

Download asset Open asset

Distributional impact of inflation across equivalised disposable income quintiles

Figure 7

Download asset Open asset

Welfare losses decomposition into price and behavioural adjustment

Tables

Table 1

Average annualised consumer prices index (1996-2023)

	1996-1999	2000-2004	2005-2009	2010-2014	2015-2020	2021-2023
Turkey	0.737	0.308	0.083	0.073	0.124	0.528
Armenia	0.056	0.031	0.039	0.038	0.007	0.056
Azerbaijan			0.118	0.037	0.062	0.058
Georgia			0.017	0.018	0.015	0.053
EU	0.016	0.021	0.023	0.019	0.013	0.073
Turkey Rank	1	1	2	1	1	1

Source: Eurostat, IMF.

Table 2

Budget and price elasticities

Expenditure Category	AR		GE		TR
	Budget	Price	Budget	Price	Budget	Price
Food and Non-alcoholic beverages	0.699	-0.799	0.941	-0.671	0.626	-0.455
Alcoholic Beverages	0.848	-0.873	1.798	-1.007	0.517	-0.309
Tobacco	0.451	-0.468	0.372	-0.263	0.098	-0.060
Clothing and Footwear	0.954	-0.983	0.365	-0.213	0.876	-0.530
Home fuels	1.573	-1.569	0.699	-0.398	1.521	-0.912
Electricity	1.008	-1.037	0.677	-0.346	0.880	-0.531
Rents	0.274	-0.289	1.154	-0.652	0.250	-0.162
Household services	1.580	-1.585	0.983	-0.558	1.611	-0.963
Health	1.182	-1.212	0.983	-0.592	1.015	-0.616
Private transport	1.514	-1.522	1.800	-1.009	1.367	-0.828
Public Transport	0.913	-0.942	0.941	-0.671	0.748	-0.455
Information & Communication	0.969	-0.998	1.798	-1.007	0.881	-0.535
Recreation and culture	1.369	-1.350	0.372	-0.263	1.270	-0.790
Education	1.126	-1.156	0.365	-0.213	0.962	-0.585
Restaurants and hotels	0.873	-0.903	0.699	-0.398	0.776	-0.484
Other goods and services	1.159	-1.167	0.590	-0.346	1.055	-0.677
Childcare costs	.	.	1.154	-0.652	.	.
Motor fuels	1.008	-1.037	0.983	-0.558	0.599	-0.363
Durables	0.858	-0.886	0.983	-0.592	1.208	-0.763

Table 3

Price changes from December 2020 to December 2022 (in %) (COICOP)

COICOP Heading	Expenditure item	HCPI Price change (in %)
		AR	GE	TR
	All-items HICP	16.94	23.1	123.5
CP01	Food and non-alcoholic beverages	24.17	32.6	155.7
CP02	Alcoholic beverages and tobacco	18.88	15.1	98.2
CP03	Clothing and footwear	20.42	2.0	51.2
CP04	Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels	10.21	60.3	131.3
CP05	Furnishings, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house	21.25	23.2	143.9
CP06	Health	6.15	2.4	100.8
CP07	Transport	12.06	19.6	137.3
CP08	Communication	1.51	-1.0	44.2
CP09	Recreation and culture	22.78	7.9	88.1
CP10	Education	6.17	11.8	61.0
CP11	Restaurants and hotels	14.72	28.5	137.3
CP12	Miscellaneous goods and services	16.78	17.6	107.9

Table 4

Estimated inflation by main sub-components

	AR	GE	TR	AR	GE	TR
	Price Inflation			Share of Total Price inflation
Food	16.3	10.9	46.0	0.558	0.470	0.246
Motor Fuels	0.2	0.7	4.2	0.006	0.029	0.022
Heating and Electricity	0.8	3.3	15.5	0.028	0.141	0.083
Other Goods and Services	11.9	8.4	121.6	0.408	0.359	0.649
Total	29.2	23.3	187.3

Table 5

Decomposition on distributional impact into base and rate effects

	CI pre-change (X)	$C {I_{C}}_{i}$	$C {I_{X + C}}_{i}$	$R {S_{C}}_{i}$	${K_{C}}_{i}$	Avg. r.
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
AR
Total Expenditure	0.139	0.133	0.138	-0.001	-0.005	0.292
Food		0.112	0.135	-0.004	-0.026	0.163
Motor Fuels		0.159	0.138	0.000	0.020	0.002
Heating and Electricity		0.180	0.139	0.000	0.041	0.008
Other Goods and Services		0.158	0.140	0.002	0.020	0.119
GE
Total Expenditure	0.212	0.202	0.211	-0.002	-0.010	0.229
Food		0.155	0.206	-0.005	-0.057	0.105
Motor Fuels		0.415	0.213	0.002	0.203	0.008
Heating and Electricity		0.188	0.211	-0.001	-0.024	0.000
Other Goods and Services		0.245	0.215	0.003	0.033	0.085
TR
Total Expenditure	0.170	0.171	0.175	0.001	0.001	1.873
Food		0.142	0.161	-0.009	-0.028	0.460
Motor Fuels		0.314	0.176	0.006	0.144	0.042
Heating and Electricity		0.155	0.169	-0.002	-0.015	0.155
Other Goods and Services		0.180	0.000	0.005	0.009	1.216

Note: X = initial expenditure; $C {I_{C}}_{i}$ = concentration index of the cost increase in item i, $C_{i}$ ; $C {I_{X + C}}_{i}$ = CI of the increase in total expenditure due to the cost increase in item i, $C_{i}$ ; $R {S_{C}}_{i}, {K_{C}}_{i}$ = Reynolds-Smolensky and Kakwani of $C_{i}$ ; r = average inflation rate; RS = (3)-(1); K =(2)-(1).

Table 6

Contributions of the commodity groups to the progressivity of inflation

Component	Formula	Relative contribution of each component in $K$ (%)
		AR: Regressive	GE: Regressive	TR: Progressive
Food	$\frac{r_{1}}{r} * K_{C_{1}}$	-0.063	-0.0150	-0.0237
Motor fuels	$\frac{r_{2}}{r} * K_{2}$	0.000	0.0070	-0.0005
Heating & Electricity	$\frac{r_{3}}{r} * K_{C_{3}}$	0.005	-0.0155	0.0104
Other goods and services	$\frac{r_{4}}{r} * K_{C_{4}}$	0.037	0.0049	0.0208
Total	$K$	-0.20	-0.0095	0.0071

Table 7

Welfare Changes as measured by $Y_{e d e}$

	Atkinson Index (2)			Mean $Y_{e}$			$Y_{e d e}$
	Pre -change	Post -change	Relative change	Pre -change	Post -change	Relative change	Pre -change	Post -change	Relative change
AR	0.303	0.305	0.91%	91625	71217	-22.27%	63895	49467	-22.58%
GE	0.373	0.376	0.91%	735	598	-18.59%	461	373	-19.04%
TR	0.313	0.302	-3.35%	7676	2740	-64.31%	5274	1911	-63.76%

Table A1

Composition of change in price by decile of consumption.

	AR	AR	AR	AR	AZ	AZ	AZ	AZ	GE	GE	GE	GE	TR	TR	TR	TR
	Food	H&E	Transport	Other	Food	H&E	Transport	Other	Food	H&E	Transport	Other	Food	H&E	Transport	Other
1	0.208	0.070	0.007	0.715	0.827	0.063	0.013	0.097	0.425	0.131	0.054	3.213	0.205	0.033	0.017	0.745
2	0.403	0.034	0.009	0.554	0.797	0.072	0.014	0.117	0.469	0.106	0.058	3.747	0.229	0.043	0.020	0.707
3	0.483	0.029	0.008	0.480	0.781	0.077	0.016	0.127	0.485	0.101	0.065	3.786	0.252	0.046	0.023	0.680
4	0.539	0.025	0.007	0.429	0.763	0.085	0.016	0.136	0.497	0.098	0.066	3.805	0.258	0.055	0.022	0.664
5	0.590	0.022	0.006	0.382	0.750	0.090	0.017	0.142	0.510	0.101	0.066	3.517	0.276	0.056	0.024	0.643
6	0.632	0.019	0.006	0.342	0.734	0.094	0.018	0.153	0.504	0.102	0.067	3.540	0.282	0.062	0.023	0.632
7	0.676	0.016	0.005	0.303	0.719	0.101	0.020	0.160	0.509	0.101	0.066	3.525	0.270	0.065	0.026	0.640
8	0.716	0.015	0.004	0.265	0.701	0.108	0.021	0.169	0.489	0.129	0.064	2.718	0.277	0.070	0.026	0.627
9	0.766	0.012	0.004	0.218	0.669	0.126	0.022	0.183	0.452	0.182	0.061	1.866	0.271	0.079	0.027	0.623
10	0.851	0.008	0.002	0.138	0.594	0.158	0.028	0.219	0.338	0.356	0.047	0.816	0.182	0.206	0.018	0.594

Note: H&E - Heating and Electricity

Table A2

Average change in price by decile of consumption.

	AR	AZ	GE	TR
1	0.318	0.222	0.230	1.618
2	0.308	0.210	0.235	1.724
3	0.307	0.203	0.235	1.774
4	0.302	0.195	0.236	1.815
5	0.300	0.189	0.237	1.845
6	0.299	0.183	0.241	1.873
7	0.297	0.177	0.236	1.903
8	0.296	0.170	0.235	1.936
9	0.294	0.162	0.234	1.979
10	0.283	0.144	0.226	2.124
Total	0.301	0.186	0.235	1.873
Labour Cost Growth	0.240	0.187	0.210	1.240

Table A3

Distributional impact of value of price changes relative to (before behavioural response).

Denominator	Disposable income					Expenditure
Quintile	Food	Motor Fuels	Heating and Electricity	Other Goods and Services	Total	Food	Motor Fuels	Heating and Electricity	Other Goods and Services	Total
Armenia
1	105.4	0.8	2.9	51.5	160.5	17.8	0.2	0.7	11.1	29.8
2	18.5	0.2	0.7	11.3	30.7	17.6	0.2	0.7	11.1	29.6
3	14.1	0.2	0.8	10.6	25.6	15.7	0.2	0.9	12.2	29.0
4	10.8	0.1	0.6	8.2	19.7	15.6	0.2	0.9	12.3	28.9
5	7.8	0.1	0.4	6.0	14.3	15.8	0.2	0.9	12.2	29.0
Georgia
1	31.0	1.2	10.1	21.0	63.3	12.4	0.4	3.5	7.7	24.0
2	14.3	0.4	4.4	9.2	28.3	11.9	0.4	3.5	7.8	23.6
3	12.1	0.5	3.8	8.3	24.7	11.4	0.6	3.4	8.0	23.4
4	9.9	0.6	3.1	7.6	21.3	10.9	0.7	3.1	8.4	23.1
5	7.5	0.7	2.4	6.6	17.2	9.7	1.0	3.1	9.0	22.9
Turkey
1	293.7	17.2	109.5	690.5	1110.8	47.9	2.3	16.3	119.9	186.4
2	62.5	4.4	21.7	157.7	246.4	48.6	3.2	15.5	118.6	185.9
3	44.4	3.8	15.7	113.5	177.4	48.2	3.8	16.2	120.0	188.3
4	31.2	3.2	10.2	83.5	128.0	47.0	4.4	14.8	121.8	188.0
5	19.3	2.6	7.2	57.4	86.5	41.7	5.6	15.1	124.8	187.2

[2] The categorization of countries is based on the World Bank’s classification by per capita income. Hereinafter, the countries with high income are referred as developed countries, while the countries with upper- and lower-middle income are referred as developing countries.

Data and code availability

The data used in this paper is not publicly available.

Download links

A two-part list of links to download the article, or parts of the article, in various formats.

Downloads (link to download the article as PDF)

Article PDF

Download citations (links to download the citations from this article in formats compatible with various reference manager tools)

BibTeX
RIS

Open citations (links to open the citations from this article in various online reference manager services)

Mendeley

Annualised price inflation in Turkey, the South Caucasus and European Union neighbours.

Aggregate budget shares

Budget shares of expenditure components across equivalised disposable income quintiles

Budget and savings shares in household income across equivalised disposable income quintiles

Average Price Change by Price Change Decile

Distributional impact of inflation across equivalised disposable income quintiles

Welfare losses decomposition into price and behavioural adjustment

Average annualised consumer prices index (1996-2023)

Budget and price elasticities

Price changes from December 2020 to December 2022 (in %) (COICOP)

Estimated inflation by main sub-components

Decomposition on distributional impact into base and rate effects

Contributions of the commodity groups to the progressivity of inflation

Welfare Changes as measured by Yede

Composition of change in price by decile of consumption.

Average change in price by decile of consumption.

Distributional impact of value of price changes relative to (before behavioural response).

Downloads (link to download the article as PDF)

Download citations (links to download the citations from this article in formats compatible with various reference manager tools)

Open citations (links to open the citations from this article in various online reference manager services)

Welfare Changes as measured by $Y_{e d e}$