The redistribution effect of taxation in emerging economies: Evidence from a microsimulation exercise in Zambia
- PhD Graduate and Researh Fellow, Department of Economics, University of South Africa, South Africa
- Full professor, Department of Economics, University of South Africa, South Africa
Cite this article
as: M. Evaristo, Z. Robinson; 2026; The redistribution effect of taxation in emerging economies: Evidence from a microsimulation exercise in Zambia; International Journal of Microsimulation; 19(1); 1-32.
doi: 10.34196/ijm.00333
Figures
Figure 1
The trends for the tax-to-GPD ratio, Gini index, and absolute poverty, 1995–2020.
Source: constructed by the author using data from ZRA and ZamStats.
Figure 2
Poverty trends in Zambia, 2006, 2010 and 2015 .
Source: constructed by the author using the 2006, 2010, and 2015 LCMS.
Figure 3
Income share across the population distribution 1996–2015.
Source: constructed by the author using data from ZAMSTATS (see also International Growth Centre, 2017).
Figure 4
Structure of public tax revenues in Zambia, 2010–2019.
Source: constructed by the author using ZRA data.
Figure 5
Tax revenues by selected tax type as a percentage of GDP.
Source: author’s elaboration of data from ZRA.
Figure 6
Contributions of different taxes to simulated tax revenue in Zambia, 2010–2019.
Source: constructed by the author based on MicroZAMOD simulations.
Figure 7
Contributions of different taxes to the national consumption-based severe poverty rate in Zambia, 2010–2019.
Source: author’s elaboration based on MicroZAMOD simulations.
Figure 8
Research process flow.
Source: constructed by the author.
Tables
Table 1
Effects of taxes on the Gini coefficient.
| 2010 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumption-based Gini before taxes | 57.03 | 57.16 | 55.63 | 54.99 | 55.11 | 55.22 |
| Effect of PIT | -2.35 | -1.02 | -1.29 | -1.37 | -1.22 | -1.51 |
| Effect of TOT | +0.09 | +0.13 | +0.11 | -0.12 | -0.11 | +0.15 |
| Effect of VAT | -0.29 | -0.34 | -0.38 | -0.42 | -0.41 | -0.42 |
| Effect of Excise Duties | -0.15 | -0.16 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.14 | -0.13 |
| Consumption-based Gini after taxes | 54.33 | 55.78 | 53.92 | 52.94 | 53.23 | 53.30 |
| Contribution shares | ||||||
| Effect of PIT | -87.2% | -73.9% | -75.1% | -66.7% | -64.8% | -78.8% |
| Effect of TOT | +3.5% | +9.7% | +6.5% | -5.6% | -6.1% | +7.7% |
| Effect of VAT | -10.9% | -24.5% | -22.4% | -20.5% | -21.7% | -21.9% |
| Effect of Excise Duties | -5.4% | -11.4% | -9.0% | -7.2% | -7.4% | -7.0% |
| Effect of all taxes on consumption-based Gini | -100% | -100% | -100% | -100% | -100% | -100% |
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Source: author’s elaboration based on MicroZAMOD simulations.
Table 2
Cost-effectiveness of different taxes in terms of changes in poverty.
| 2010 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Effect of PIT | +0.12 pp. | +0.01 pp. | +0.03 pp. | +0.03 pp. | +0.01 pp. | +0.04 pp. |
| Effect of TOT | +0.28 pp. | +0.20 pp. | +0.14 pp. | +0.03 pp. | +0.02 pp. | +0.28 pp. |
| Effect of VAT | +0.78 pp. | +0.49 pp. | +0.53 pp. | +0.49 pp. | +0.53 pp. | +0.45 pp. |
| Effect of Excise Duties | +0.03 pp. | +0.01 pp. | +0.01 pp. | +0.02 pp. | +0.01 pp. | +0.02 pp. |
-
Source: author’s elaboration based on MicroZAMOD simulations.
-
Note: the cells indicate the increase in the national poverty rate (in percentage points) associated with raising 1 billion Kwacha of revenue from a specific tax. Larger estimates (red) hence point to cases where raising tax revenue leads to larger relative increases in poverty.
Table 3
Cost-effectiveness of different taxes in terms of changes in the Gini index.
| 2010 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Effect of PIT | -0.95 pp. | -0.41 pp. | -0.52 pp. | -0.55 pp. | -0.49 pp. | -0.60 pp. |
| Effect of TOT | +0.04 pp. | +0.05 pp. | +0.04 pp. | -0.05 pp. | -0.05 pp. | +0.06 pp. |
| Effect of VAT | -0.12 pp. | -0.14 pp. | -0.15 pp. | -0.17 pp. | -0.16 pp. | -0.17 pp. |
| Effect of Excise Duties | -0.06 pp. | -0.06 pp. | -0.06 pp. | -0.06 pp. | -0.06 pp. | -0.05 pp. |
-
Source: author’s elaboration based on MicroZAMOD simulations
-
Note: the cells indicate the change in the Gini coefficient (in percentage points) associated with raising 1 billion Kwacha of revenue from a specific tax. Larger estimates (red) hence point to cases where raising tax revenue leads to larger relative increases in the Gini.
Table 4
Baseline and proposed policy reforms.
| Parameter | Baseline | Reform 1 | Reform 2 | Reform 3 | Reform 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAYE/PIT Band 1 | 61,200–85,200 | 61,200–90,000 | Same as baseline | 61,200–90,000 | 66,000-92,400 |
| PAYE/PIT Band 1 Rate | 20.0% | 25.0 % | 25.0 % | 25.0% | |
| PAYE/PIT Band 2 | 85,200–110,400 | 90,000–144,400 | Same as baseline | 90,000–144,400 | 92,400-130,000 |
| PAYE/PIT Band 2 Rate | 30% | 34.0% | 34.0% | 33% | |
| PAYE/PIT Band 3 | Over 110,400 | Over 144,400 | Same as baseline | Over 144,400 | Over 144,000 |
| PAYE/PIT Band 3 Rate | 37.0% | 37.5% | 37.5% | 38% | |
| Clear beer excise duty (ad valorem rate) | 40.0% | Same as baseline | 65.0% | 65.0% | 65% |
| Wine and spirits excise duty (ad valorem rate) | 60.0% | Same as baseline | 80.0% | 80.0% | 80% |
| Opaque beer excise duty (Kwacha per litre) | 0.25 | Same as baseline | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Tobacco excise duty (Kwacha per single piece) | 0.4 | Same as baseline | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| VAT rate | 16% | 15.0% | 15.5% | 15.0% | 15.5% |
| Turnover Tax Upper Limit | 800,000 | Same as baseline | Same as baseline | Same as baseline | 1,200,00 |
| Turnover Tax Rate | 4% | Same as baseline | Same as baseline | Same as baseline | 5.5% |
-
Source: constructed by the author using ZRA practice notes.
-
Source: note that PIT/PAYE rates for those under the first band are 0% (e.g. those earning under K61,200 in the baseline). Only parameters that are changed in one or more of the scenarios are included.
Table 5
Simulation results of the hypothetical policy reforms.
| Baseline | Reform 1 | Reform 2 | Reform 3 | Reform 4 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | Results | Change | Results | Change | Results | Change | Results | Change | |
| Tax-benefit policy (million Kwacha) | |||||||||
| Government revenue | 15,043.59 | 15,048.13 | +4.54 | 15,039.18 | -4.41 | 15,177.14 | +133.55 | 15,569.14 | +525.55 |
| ... direct taxes | 5,074.75 | 5,347.25 | +272.50 | 5,074.75 | 0.00 | 5,347.25 | +272.50 | 5,613.22 | +538.47 |
| ... indirect taxes | 4,688.62 | 4,420.66 | -267.96 | 4,684.21 | -4.41 | 4,549.67 | -138.95 | 4,675.70 | -12.92 |
| ... social security contributions | 5,280.23 | 5,280.23 | 0.00 | 5,280.23 | 0.00 | 5,280.23 | 0.00 | 5,280.23 | 0.00 |
| Gov. expenditure on social transfers | 3,964.93 | 3,964.93 | 0.00 | 3,964.93 | 0.00 | 4,095.06 | +130.14 | 4,485.48 | +520.55 |
| Poverty | |||||||||
| Share of poor population, in %, FGT (0) | 41.72*** (0.0069) | 41.70*** (0.0072) | -0.03 | 41.70*** (0.0068) | -0.02 | 41.56*** (0.0074) | -0.16 | 41.54*** (0.0068) | -0.18 |
| ... male-headed households | 41.80 | 41.78 | -0.02 | 41.79 | -0.02 | 41.71 | -0.09 | 41.85 | +0.05 |
| ... female-headed households | 41.40 | 41.36 | -0.04 | 41.37 | -0.03 | 40.95 | -0.45 | 40.27 | -1.12 |
| ... households with children | 43.15 | 43.13 | -0.02 | 43.14 | -0.02 | 43.00 | -0.16 | 43.05 | -0.11 |
| ... households with older persons | 46.02 | 46.00 | -0.02 | 46.02 | 0.00 | 45.39 | -0.63 | 44.13 | -1.89 |
| Poverty gap, FGT (1) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Inequality and household income | |||||||||
| Gini coefficient (0–100) | 54.24*** (0.0044) | 54.19*** (0.0046) | -0.06 | 54.24*** (0.0046) | -0.01 | 54.08*** (0.0045) | -0.16 | 53.96*** (0.0046) | -0.003 |
| P80/P20 ratio | 4.98 | 4.98 | 0.00 | 4.98 | 0.00 | 4.95 | -0.03 | 4.90 | -0.08 |
| Quantiles of distribution and median | |||||||||
| 20th | 1,764.99 | 1,766.71 | +1.72 | 1,766.28 | +1.28 | 1,777.85 | +12.86 | 1,792.14 | +27.15 |
| 40th | 2,978.38 | 2,986.27 | +7.89 | 2,979.90 | +1.52 | 2,994.20 | +15.82 | 3,012.41 | +34.03 |
| 50th | 3,812.19 | 3,818.94 | +6.75 | 3,815.05 | +2.85 | 3,828.21 | +16.02 | 3,839.29 | +27.10 |
| 60th | 4,934.12 | 4,947.87 | +13.75 | 4,933.12 | -1.00 | 4,941.18 | +7.06 | 4,950.22 | +16.10 |
| 80th | 8,781.77 | 8,791.08 | +9.31 | 8,790.14 | +8.37 | 8,798.51 | +16.74 | 8,778.92 | -2.86 |
| Absolute national poverty line, per year | 3,127.68 | 3,127.68 | - | 3,127.68 | - | 3,127.68 | - | 3,128.00 | 0.00 |
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Standard errors in parentheses. * p < 0.10, ** p <0.05, *** p <0.01
-
Source: constructed by the author based on MicroZAMOD simulations.
Table A1
Baseline and proposed policy reforms.
| Parameter | Baseline | Reform 1 | Reform 2 | Reform 3 | Reform 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turnover Tax Upper Limit | 800,000 | Same as baseline | Same as baseline | Same as baseline | 1,200,00 |
| Turnover Tax Rate | 4% | Same as baseline | Same as baseline | Same as baseline | 5.5% |
| VAT rate | 16% | 15.0% | 15.5% | 15.0% | 15.5% |
| Opaque beer excise duty (Kwacha per litre) | 0.25 | Same as baseline | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Clear beer excise duty (ad valorem rate) | 40.0% | Same as baseline | 65.0% | 65.0% | 65% |
| Tobacco excise duty (Kwacha per single piece) | 0.4 | Same as baseline | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| Wine and spirits excise duty (ad valorem rate) | 60.0% | Same as baseline | 80.0% | 80.0% | 80% |
| PAYE/PIT Band 1 | 61,200–85,200 | 61,200–90,000 | Same as baseline | 61,200–90,000 | 66,000-92,400 |
| PAYE/PIT Band 1 Rate | 20.0% | 25.0 % | 25.0 % | 25.0% | |
| PAYE/PIT Band 2 | 85,200–110,400 | 90,000–144,400 | Same as baseline | 90,000–144,400 | 92,400-130,000 |
| PAYE/PIT Band 2 Rate | 30% | 34.0% | 34.0% | 33% | |
| PAYE/PIT Band 3 | Over 110,400 | Over 144,400 | Same as baseline | Over 144,400 | Over 130,000 |
| PAYE/PIT Band 3 Rate | 37.0% | 37.5% | 37.5% | 38% |
Table A2
Simulation results of the hypothetical policy reforms.
| Baseline | Reform 1 | Reform 2 | Reform 3 | Reform 4 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | Results | Change | Results | Change | Results | Change | Results | Change | |
| Tax-benefit policy (million Kwacha) | |||||||||
| Government revenue | 15,043.59 | 15,048.13 | +4.54 | 15,039.18 | -4.41 | 15,177.14 | +133.55 | 15,569.14 | +525.55 |
| ... direct taxes | 5,074.75 | 5,347.25 | +272.50 | 5,074.75 | 0.00 | 5,347.25 | +272.50 | 5,613.22 | +538.47 |
| ... indirect taxes | 4,688.62 | 4,420.66 | -267.96 | 4,684.21 | -4.41 | 4,549.67 | -138.95 | 4,675.70 | -12.92 |
| ... social security contributions | 5,280.23 | 5,280.23 | 0.00 | 5,280.23 | 0.00 | 5,280.23 | 0.00 | 5,280.23 | 0.00 |
| Gov. expenditure on social transfers | 3,964.93 | 3,964.93 | 0.00 | 3,964.93 | 0.00 | 4,095.06 | +130.14 | 4,485.48 | +520.55 |
| Poverty | |||||||||
| Share of poor population, in %, FGT (0) | 41.72 | 41.70 | -0.03 | 41.70 | -0.02 | 41.56 | -0.16 | 41.54 | -0.18 |
| ... male-headed households | 41.80 | 41.78 | -0.02 | 41.79 | -0.02 | 41.71 | -0.09 | 41.85 | +0.05 |
| ... female-headed households | 41.40 | 41.36 | -0.04 | 41.37 | -0.03 | 40.95 | -0.45 | 40.27 | -1.12 |
| ... households with children | 43.15 | 43.13 | -0.02 | 43.14 | -0.02 | 43.00 | -0.16 | 43.05 | -0.11 |
| ... households with older persons | 46.02 | 46.00 | -0.02 | 46.02 | 0.00 | 45.39 | -0.63 | 44.13 | -1.89 |
| Poverty gap, FGT (1) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Inequality and household income | |||||||||
| Gini coefficient (0–100) | 54.24 | 54.19 | -0.06 | 54.24 | -0.01 | 54.08 | -0.16 | 0.5396 | -0.0029 |
| P80/P20 ratio | 4.98 | 4.98 | 0.00 | 4.98 | 0.00 | 4.95 | -0.03 | 4.90 | -0.08 |
| Quantiles of distribution and median | |||||||||
| 20th | 1,764.99 | 1,766.71 | +1.72 | 1,766.28 | +1.28 | 1,777.85 | +12.86 | 1,792.14 | +27.15 |
| 40th | 2,978.38 | 2,986.27 | +7.89 | 2,979.90 | +1.52 | 2,994.20 | +15.82 | 3,012.41 | +34.03 |
| 50th | 3,812.19 | 3,818.94 | +6.75 | 3,815.05 | +2.85 | 3,828.21 | +16.02 | 3,839.29 | +27.10 |
| 60th | 4,934.12 | 4,947.87 | +13.75 | 4,933.12 | -1.00 | 4,941.18 | +7.06 | 4,950.22 | +16.10 |
| 80th | 8,781.77 | 8,791.08 | +9.31 | 8,790.14 | +8.37 | 8,798.51 | +16.74 | 8,778.92 | -2.86 |
| Absolute national poverty line, per year | 3,127.68 | 3,127.68 | - | 3,127.68 | - | 3,127.68 | - | 3,128.00 | 0.00 |
Table A3
Complex survey estimates of Generalized Entropy inequality indices.
| Baseline | GE(-1) | 1.049384 | 0.047619 | 22.04 | 0.000 | 0.956052 | 1.142715 |
| MLD | 0.542851 | 0.010005 | 54.26 | 0.000 | 0.523241 | 0.56246 | |
| Theil | 0.589716 | 0.014859 | 39.69 | 0.000 | 0.560593 | 0.618838 | |
| GE(2) | 1.374182 | 0.099984 | 13.74 | 0.000 | 1.178218 | 1.570147 | |
| GE(3) | 10.13423 | 2.16161 | 4.69 | 0.000 | 5.897555 | 14.37091 | |
| Reform 1 | GE(-1) | 1.045456 | 0.047423 | 22.05 | 0.000 | 0.952509 | 1.138402 |
| MLD | 0.541628 | 0.010006 | 54.13 | 0.000 | 0.522016 | 0.56124 | |
| Theil | 0.588791 | 0.014898 | 39.52 | 0.000 | 0.559591 | 0.617991 | |
| GE(2) | 1.374785 | 0.100439 | 13.69 | 0.000 | 1.177928 | 1.571641 | |
| GE(3) | 10.18034 | 2.177292 | 4.68 | 0.000 | 5.912928 | 14.44776 | |
| Reform 2 | GE(-1) | 1.048209 | 0.047524 | 22.06 | 0.000 | 0.955064 | 1.141353 |
| MLD | 0.542627 | 0.01 | 54.26 | 0.000 | 0.523029 | 0.562226 | |
| Theil | 0.589402 | 0.014842 | 39.71 | 0.000 | 0.560312 | 0.618493 | |
| GE(2) | 1.371418 | 0.099579 | 13.77 | 0.000 | 1.176247 | 1.56659 | |
| GE(3) | 10.07179 | 2.143049 | 4.7 | 0.000 | 5.871496 | 14.27209 | |
| Reform 3 | GE(-1) | 1.030026 | 0.046737 | 22.04 | 0.000 | 0.938422 | 1.121629 |
| MLD | 0.53854 | 0.009958 | 54.08 | 0.000 | 0.519022 | 0.558059 | |
| Theil | 0.58638 | 0.014851 | 39.48 | 0.000 | 0.557273 | 0.615487 | |
| GE(2) | 1.366659 | 0.099702 | 13.71 | 0.000 | 1.171246 | 1.562072 | |
| GE(3) | 10.06418 | 2.148857 | 4.68 | 0.000 | 5.852493 | 14.27586 | |
| Reform 4 | GE(-1) | 1.00002 | 0.045593 | 21.93 | 0.000 | 0.910659 | 1.089381 |
| MLD | 0.534232 | 0.009902 | 53.95 | 0.000 | 0.514826 | 0.553639 | |
| Theil | 0.584206 | 0.014812 | 39.44 | 0.000 | 0.555175 | 0.613236 | |
| GE(2) | 1.361715 | 0.099264 | 13.72 | 0.000 | 1.167162 | 1.556269 | |
| GE(3) | 9.998477 | 2.129615 | 4.69 | 0.000 | 5.824507 | 14.17245 |
-
(Number of obs = 12250, Number of strata = 1, Number of PSUs= 12250, Population size=15473850)
-
GE(-1): Focuses on inequality among the poorest.
-
MLD (Mean Log Deviation): Measures lower-end inequality (α = 0).
-
Theil: Includes:
-
· Theil T (GE(1)): Entire income distribution.
-
· Theil L (GE(0)): Same as MLD.
-
GE(2): Highlights inequality among the wealthiest.
-
GE(3): Stronger emphasis on top-end inequality
Table A4
Complex survey estimates of Atkinson inequality indices.
| Index | Estimate | Std.Err. | z | P>|z| | [95% Conf.Interval] | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | A(0.5) | 0.244544 | 0.004384 | 55.78 | 0.000 | 0.235952 | 0.253136 |
| A(1) | 0.418911 | 0.005814 | 72.05 | 0.000 | 0.407516 | 0.430306 | |
| A(1.5) | 0.555707 | 0.00696 | 79.84 | 0.000 | 0.542065 | 0.569348 | |
| A(2) | 0.677291 | 0.009918 | 68.29 | 0.000 | 0.657852 | 0.69673 | |
| A(2.5) | 0.790498 | 0.013498 | 58.57 | 0.000 | 0.764043 | 0.816953 | |
| Reform 1 | A(0.5) | 0.244103 | 0.004392 | 55.58 | 0.000 | 0.235495 | 0.252711 |
| A(1) | 0.4182 | 0.005822 | 71.84 | 0.000 | 0.40679 | 0.42961 | |
| A(1.5) | 0.554894 | 0.006966 | 79.65 | 0.000 | 0.54124 | 0.568547 | |
| A(2) | 0.676471 | 0.009928 | 68.14 | 0.000 | 0.657013 | 0.695928 | |
| A(2.5) | 0.789801 | 0.013547 | 58.3 | 0.000 | 0.763249 | 0.816353 | |
| Reform 2 | A(0.5) | 0.244456 | 0.004382 | 55.79 | 0.000 | 0.235869 | 0.253044 |
| A(1) | 0.418781 | 0.005812 | 72.06 | 0.000 | 0.40739 | 0.430172 | |
| A(1.5) | 0.555527 | 0.006957 | 79.85 | 0.000 | 0.541892 | 0.569163 | |
| A(2) | 0.677046 | 0.009913 | 68.3 | 0.000 | 0.657616 | 0.696476 | |
| A(2.5) | 0.790229 | 0.01351 | 58.49 | 0.000 | 0.76375 | 0.816708 | |
| Reform 3 | A(0.5) | 0.243093 | 0.004382 | 55.47 | 0.000 | 0.234505 | 0.251682 |
| A(1) | 0.416401 | 0.005812 | 71.65 | 0.000 | 0.40501 | 0.427791 | |
| A(1.5) | 0.552332 | 0.006955 | 79.42 | 0.000 | 0.538701 | 0.565963 | |
| A(2) | 0.673208 | 0.009982 | 67.44 | 0.000 | 0.653643 | 0.692773 | |
| A(2.5) | 0.786693 | 0.013891 | 56.63 | 0.000 | 0.759466 | 0.813919 | |
| Reform 4 | A(0.5) | 0.24193 | 0.004373 | 55.32 | 0.000 | 0.233358 | 0.250501 |
| A(1) | 0.413881 | 0.005804 | 71.32 | 0.000 | 0.402506 | 0.425256 | |
| A(1.5) | 0.548151 | 0.006966 | 78.69 | 0.000 | 0.534498 | 0.561803 | |
| A(2) | 0.666671 | 0.010132 | 65.8 | 0.000 | 0.646814 | 0.686529 | |
| A(2.5) | 0.776982 | 0.014157 | 54.88 | 0.000 | 0.749234 | 0.80473 | |
-
(Number of obs = 12250, Number of strata = 1, Number of PSUs = 12250, Population size = 15473850)
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A(0.5): Moderate sensitivity to lower-end inequality.
-
A(1): Stronger focus on lower-end disparities.
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A(1.5): Increased inequality aversion.
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A(2): High sensitivity to the poorest individuals.
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A(2.5): Extreme focus on lower-end inequality.
Table A5
Bootstrap results robustness checks for Poverty incidence.
| Observed | Bootstrap | Normal-base [95% Conf.Interval] | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coefficient | std.err | z | P>|z| | ||||
| Baseline | fgt0[1] | 0.4172189 | 0.006894 | 60.52 | 0.000 | 0.403706 | 0.430731 |
| fgt1 | 0.1804008 | 0.003562 | 50.65 | 0.000 | 0.173419 | 0.187382 | |
| fgt2 | 0.1023088 | 0.002563 | 39.93 | 0.000 | 0.097286 | 0.107331 | |
| Reform 1 | fgt0 | 0.4170619 | 0.007152 | 58.32 | 0.000 | 0.403045 | 0.431079 |
| fgt1 | 0.1799028 | 0.003592 | 50.08 | 0.000 | 0.172863 | 0.186943 | |
| fgt2 | 0.1019693 | 0.002501 | 40.76 | 0.000 | 0.097067 | 0.106872 | |
| Reform 2 | fgt0 | 0.4170422 | 0.006848 | 60.9 | 0.000 | 0.40362 | 0.430465 |
| fgt1 | 0.1803269 | 0.003726 | 48.39 | 0.000 | 0.173023 | 0.18763 | |
| fgt2 | 0.1022465 | 0.00265 | 38.59 | 0.000 | 0.097053 | 0.10744 | |
| Reform 3 | fgt0 | 0.4156818 | 0.007402 | 56.16 | 0.000 | 0.401174 | 0.43019 |
| fgt1 | 0.178704 | 0.003784 | 47.22 | 0.000 | 0.171287 | 0.186121 | |
| fgt2 | 0.1009785 | 0.002639 | 38.26 | 0.000 | 0.095805 | 0.106152 | |
| Reform 4 | fgt0 | 0.4154426 | 0.006795 | 61.14 | 0.000 | 0.402125 | 0.42876 |
| fgt1 | 0.1766634 | 0.003453 | 51.16 | 0.000 | 0.169895 | 0.183432 | |
| fgt2 | 0.0993168 | 0.002445 | 40.62 | 0.000 | 0.094524 | 0.104109 | |
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(Number of obs = 12,251, Replications =250, (Replications based on 12,251 clusters in idhh)
Table A6
Bootstrap results robustness check for Inequality Indices.
| Observed | Bootstrap | Normal-based [95%- Conf.Interval] | |||||
| coefficient | St. Err | z | P>|z| | ||||
| Baseline | gini | 0.542417 | 0.004442 | 122.11 | 0.000 | 0.533711 | 0.551123 |
| ge0 | 0.542851 | 0.009705 | 55.94 | 0.000 | 0.52383 | 0.561871 | |
| Reform 1 | gini | 0.541855 | 0.004571 | 118.55 | 0.000 | 0.532896 | 0.550814 |
| ge0 | 0.541628 | 0.010218 | 53.01 | 0.000 | 0.521602 | 0.561654 | |
| Reform 2 | gini | 0.542341 | 0.004584 | 118.32 | 0.000 | 0.533357 | 0.551325 |
| ge0 | 0.542627 | 0.009945 | 54.56 | 0.000 | 0.523136 | 0.562119 | |
| Refrom 3 | gini | 0.540778 | 0.004539 | 119.13 | 0.000 | 0.531882 | 0.549675 |
| ge0 | 0.53854 | 0.010202 | 52.79 | 0.000 | 0.518546 | 0.558535 | |
| Refrom 4 | gini | 0.539561 | 0.00461 | 117.06 | 0.000 | 0.530527 | 0.548596 |
| ge0 | 0.534232 | 0.01007 | 53.05 | 0.000 | 0.514496 | 0.553969 | |
-
Number of obs = 12,251, Replications=250, (Replications based on 12,251 clusters in idhh)
-
fgt0: Proportion of people below the poverty line (headcount ratio).
-
fgt1: Average income shortfall below the poverty line (poverty gap).
-
fgt2: Emphasizes severe poverty by weighing larger shortfalls more heavily.
-
gini: Measures overall income inequality (0 = equality, 1 = inequality).
-
ge(0): Focuses on lower-end inequality; also called Mean Log Deviation (MLD).
Table A7
Quantile group shares, cumulative shares (Lorenz ordinates), generalized Lorenz ordinates, and Gini (Baseline).
| Group Share | Linearized Std.Err | Estimate | z | P>|z| | [95% Conf.Interval] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.011232 | 0.000333 | 33.731 | 0.000 | 0.010579 | 0.011885 |
| 2 | 0.02185 | 0.000421 | 51.878 | 0.000 | 0.021024 | 0.022675 |
| 3 | 0.030284 | 0.000497 | 60.984 | 0.000 | 0.029311 | 0.031258 |
| 4 | 0.038959 | 0.000625 | 62.348 | 0.000 | 0.037734 | 0.040184 |
| 5 | 0.050331 | 0.000768 | 65.499 | 0.000 | 0.048825 | 0.051837 |
| 6 | 0.064566 | 0.000952 | 67.829 | 0.000 | 0.062701 | 0.066432 |
| 7 | 0.08433 | 0.001155 | 73.008 | 0.000 | 0.082066 | 0.086594 |
| 8 | 0.111215 | 0.00143 | 77.786 | 0.000 | 0.108413 | 0.114017 |
| 9 | 0.164839 | 0.00221 | 74.593 | 0.000 | 0.160507 | 0.16917 |
| 10 | 0.422395 | 0.005543 | 76.201 | 0.000 | 0.41153 | 0.433259 |
| Cumul. | ||||||
| share | ||||||
| 1 | 0.011232 | 0.000333 | 33.731 | 0.000 | 0.010579 | 0.011885 |
| 2 | 0.033082 | 0.000698 | 47.411 | 0.000 | 0.031714 | 0.034449 |
| 3 | 0.063366 | 0.001124 | 56.399 | 0.000 | 0.061164 | 0.065568 |
| 4 | 0.102325 | 0.001645 | 62.185 | 0.000 | 0.0991 | 0.10555 |
| 5 | 0.152656 | 0.002283 | 66.868 | 0.000 | 0.148181 | 0.15713 |
| 6 | 0.217222 | 0.003027 | 71.75 | 0.000 | 0.211288 | 0.223156 |
| 7 | 0.301552 | 0.003881 | 77.703 | 0.000 | 0.293946 | 0.309158 |
| 8 | 0.412767 | 0.004744 | 87.001 | 0.000 | 0.403468 | 0.422066 |
| 9 | 0.577605 | 0.005543 | 104.201 | 0.000 | 0.566741 | 0.58847 |
| 10 | 1 | |||||
| Gen. | ||||||
| Lorenz | ||||||
| 1 | 75.59 | 2.18 | 34.672 | 0.000 | 71.317 | 79.863 |
| 2 | 222.637 | 4.414 | 50.441 | 0.000 | 213.986 | 231.287 |
| 3 | 426.447 | 6.959 | 61.277 | 0.000 | 412.807 | 440.088 |
| 4 | 688.639 | 10.444 | 65.939 | 0.000 | 668.17 | 709.108 |
| 5 | 1027.363 | 15.065 | 68.194 | 0.000 | 997.836 | 1056.891 |
| 6 | 1461.891 | 21.226 | 68.872 | 0.000 | 1420.288 | 1503.493 |
| 7 | 2029.427 | 29.069 | 69.813 | 0.000 | 1972.452 | 2086.402 |
| 8 | 2777.896 | 39.312 | 70.662 | 0.000 | 2700.846 | 2854.947 |
| 9 | 3887.25 | 56.32 | 69.021 | 0.000 | 3776.865 | 3997.634 |
| 10 | 6729.94 | 98.554 | 68.287 | 0.000 | 6536.777 | 6923.102 |
| Gini | 0.54242 | 0.004598 | 117.971 | 0 | 0.533408 | 0.551431 |
-
Number of orbs = 12251, Population size=154,739,35.69, Design df=1225)
Table A8
Quantile group shares, cumulative shares (Lorenz ordinates), generalized Lorenz ordinates, and Gini (Reform 1).
| Group share | Linearized Std.Err | Estimate | z | P>|z| | [95% Conf.Interval] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.011234 | 0.000334 | 33.676 | 0.000 | 0.01058 | 0.011888 |
| 2 | 0.021901 | 0.000421 | 52.042 | 0.000 | 0.021076 | 0.022726 |
| 3 | 0.030362 | 0.000498 | 60.939 | 0.000 | 0.029386 | 0.031339 |
| 4 | 0.038988 | 0.000627 | 62.184 | 0.000 | 0.037759 | 0.040217 |
| 5 | 0.050621 | 0.000769 | 65.8 | 0.000 | 0.049113 | 0.052129 |
| 6 | 0.064614 | 0.000956 | 67.568 | 0.000 | 0.06274 | 0.066488 |
| 7 | 0.084086 | 0.00115 | 73.142 | 0.000 | 0.081833 | 0.08634 |
| 8 | 0.111535 | 0.001435 | 77.742 | 0.000 | 0.108723 | 0.114347 |
| 9 | 0.164679 | 0.002194 | 75.049 | 0.000 | 0.160378 | 0.16898 |
| 10 | 0.42198 | 0.005554 | 75.976 | 0.000 | 0.411094 | 0.432866 |
| Cumul. | ||||||
| share | ||||||
| 1 | 0.011234 | 0.000334 | 33.676 | 0.000 | 0.01058 | 0.011888 |
| 2 | 0.033135 | 0.000698 | 47.476 | 0.000 | 0.031767 | 0.034503 |
| 3 | 0.063497 | 0.001125 | 56.422 | 0.000 | 0.061291 | 0.065703 |
| 4 | 0.102485 | 0.001649 | 62.158 | 0.000 | 0.099253 | 0.105716 |
| 5 | 0.153105 | 0.002288 | 66.926 | 0.000 | 0.148622 | 0.157589 |
| 6 | 0.217719 | 0.003034 | 71.752 | 0.000 | 0.211772 | 0.223666 |
| 7 | 0.301806 | 0.003885 | 77.681 | 0.000 | 0.294191 | 0.30942 |
| 8 | 0.413341 | 0.004751 | 87.002 | 0.000 | 0.404029 | 0.422652 |
| 9 | 0.57802 | 0.005554 | 104.07 | 0.000 | 0.567134 | 0.588906 |
| 10 | 1 | |||||
| Gen. | ||||||
| Lorenz | ||||||
| 1 | 75.608 | 2.185 | 34.605 | 0.000 | 71.326 | 79.89 |
| 2 | 223.008 | 4.412 | 50.54 | 0.000 | 214.36 | 231.656 |
| 3 | 427.355 | 6.969 | 61.32 | 0.000 | 413.696 | 441.015 |
| 4 | 689.758 | 10.473 | 65.863 | 0.000 | 669.232 | 710.284 |
| 5 | 1030.453 | 15.088 | 68.297 | 0.000 | 1000.882 | 1060.025 |
| 6 | 1465.327 | 21.287 | 68.837 | 0.000 | 1423.605 | 1507.048 |
| 7 | 2031.259 | 29.069 | 69.877 | 0.000 | 1974.284 | 2088.233 |
| 8 | 2781.929 | 39.339 | 70.717 | 0.000 | 2704.826 | 2859.031 |
| 9 | 3890.278 | 56.182 | 69.244 | 0.000 | 3780.163 | 4000.393 |
| 10 | 6730.354 | 98.549 | 68.294 | 0.000 | 6537.201 | 6923.508 |
| Gini | 0.541858 | 0.004608 | 117.59 | 0 | 0.532826 | 0.550889 |
-
(Number of obs = 12251, Population size = 15,473,935.69, Design df =12250)
Table A9
Quantile group shares, cumulative shares (Lorenz ordinates), generalized Lorenz ordinates, and Gini (Reform 2).
| Group Share | Estimate | Linearized Std.Err | z | P>|z| | [95% Conf.Interval] | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.011243 | 0.000333 | 33.731 | 0.000 | 0.01059 | 0.011897 | ||
| 2 | 0.021854 | 0.000421 | 51.891 | 0.000 | 0.021028 | 0.022679 | ||
| 3 | 0.030309 | 0.000496 | 61.049 | 0.000 | 0.029336 | 0.031282 | ||
| 4 | 0.038914 | 0.000625 | 62.277 | 0.000 | 0.03769 | 0.040139 | ||
| 5 | 0.050335 | 0.000769 | 65.486 | 0.000 | 0.048829 | 0.051842 | ||
| 6 | 0.064484 | 0.000949 | 67.915 | 0.000 | 0.062623 | 0.066345 | ||
| 7 | 0.0842 | 0.001154 | 72.973 | 0.000 | 0.081939 | 0.086462 | ||
| 8 | 0.111554 | 0.001435 | 77.725 | 0.000 | 0.108741 | 0.114367 | ||
| 9 | 0.165098 | 0.002185 | 75.548 | 0.000 | 0.160815 | 0.169381 | ||
| 10 | 0.422008 | 0.005548 | 76.058 | 0.000 | 0.411133 | 0.432883 | ||
| Cumul. | ||||||||
| share | ||||||||
| 1 | 0.011243 | 0.000333 | 33.731 | 0.000 | 0.01059 | 0.011897 | ||
| 2 | 0.033097 | 0.000698 | 47.418 | 0.000 | 0.031729 | 0.034465 | ||
| 3 | 0.063406 | 0.001123 | 56.44 | 0.000 | 0.061204 | 0.065608 | ||
| 4 | 0.10232 | 0.001645 | 62.187 | 0.000 | 0.099095 | 0.105545 | ||
| 5 | 0.152656 | 0.002283 | 66.865 | 0.000 | 0.148181 | 0.15713 | ||
| 6 | 0.217139 | 0.003026 | 71.762 | 0.000 | 0.211209 | 0.22307 | ||
| 7 | 0.30134 | 0.003879 | 77.683 | 0.000 | 0.293737 | 0.308942 | ||
| 8 | 0.412894 | 0.004745 | 87.026 | 0.000 | 0.403595 | 0.422193 | ||
| 9 | 0.577992 | 0.005548 | 104.171 | 0.000 | 0.567117 | 0.588867 | ||
| 10 | 1 | |||||||
| Gen. | ||||||||
| Lorenz | ||||||||
| 1 | 75.671 | 2.183 | 34.67 | 0.000 | 71.393 | 79.949 | ||
| 2 | 222.752 | 4.416 | 50.442 | 0.000 | 214.097 | 231.407 | ||
| 3 | 426.738 | 6.96 | 61.31 | 0.000 | 413.096 | 440.38 | ||
| 4 | 688.642 | 10.45 | 65.902 | 0.000 | 668.161 | 709.123 | ||
| 5 | 1027.412 | 15.079 | 68.137 | 0.000 | 997.859 | 1056.966 | ||
| 6 | 1461.406 | 21.219 | 68.874 | 0.000 | 1419.818 | 1502.994 | ||
| 7 | 2028.096 | 29.052 | 69.809 | 0.000 | 1971.155 | 2085.037 | ||
| 8 | 2778.884 | 39.346 | 70.627 | 0.000 | 2701.767 | 2856 | ||
| 9 | 3890.039 | 56.13 | 69.305 | 0.000 | 3780.027 | 4000.051 | ||
| 10 | 6730.267 | 98.527 | 68.309 | 0.000 | 6537.158 | 6923.376 | ||
| Gini | 0.542343 | 0.004597 | 117.98 | 0.000 | 0.533334 | 0.551353 | ||
-
(Number of obs = 10344, Population size = 13165710.22, Design df = 10343)
Table A10
Quantile group shares, cumulative shares (Lorenz ordinates), generalized Lorenz ordinates, and Gini (Reform 3).
| Group share | Estimate | Linearized Std.Er | z | P>|z| | [95% Conf.Interval] | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.011365 | 0.000333 | 34.124 | 0.000 | 0.010712 | 0.012018 | |
| 2 | 0.022042 | 0.000424 | 51.951 | 0.000 | 0.02121 | 0.022874 | |
| 3 | 0.030494 | 0.000497 | 61.337 | 0.000 | 0.029519 | 0.031468 | |
| 4 | 0.039152 | 0.000628 | 62.365 | 0.000 | 0.037921 | 0.040382 | |
| 5 | 0.050583 | 0.000769 | 65.794 | 0.000 | 0.049076 | 0.05209 | |
| 6 | 0.064647 | 0.000947 | 68.254 | 0.000 | 0.062791 | 0.066504 | |
| 7 | 0.084688 | 0.001159 | 73.042 | 0.000 | 0.082415 | 0.08696 | |
| 8 | 0.11128 | 0.00143 | 77.827 | 0.000 | 0.108477 | 0.114082 | |
| 9 | 0.164583 | 0.002173 | 75.726 | 0.000 | 0.160323 | 0.168843 | |
| 10 | 0.421167 | 0.005549 | 75.899 | 0.000 | 0.410291 | 0.432043 | |
| Cumul. | |||||||
| share 1 | |||||||
| 0.011365 | 0.000333 | 34.124 | 0.000 | 0.010712 | 0.012018 | ||
| 2 | 0.033407 | 0.000701 | 47.683 | 0.000 | 0.032034 | 0.03478 | |
| 3 | 0.0639 | 0.001127 | 56.708 | 0.000 | 0.061692 | 0.066109 | |
| 4 | 0.103052 | 0.001651 | 62.415 | 0.000 | 0.099816 | 0.106288 | |
| 5 | 0.153635 | 0.002289 | 67.122 | 0.000 | 0.149149 | 0.158121 | |
| 6 | 0.218283 | 0.003031 | 72.023 | 0.000 | 0.212342 | 0.224223 | |
| 7 | 0.30297 | 0.003887 | 77.952 | 0.000 | 0.295353 | 0.310588 | |
| 8 | 0.41425 | 0.004747 | 87.264 | 0.000 | 0.404946 | 0.423554 | |
| 9 | 0.578833 | 0.005549 | 104.312 | 0.000 | 0.567957 | 0.589709 | |
| 10 | 1 | ||||||
| Gen. | |||||||
| Lorenz 1 | |||||||
| 76.488 | 2.176 | 35.147 | 0.000 | 72.223 | 80.754 | ||
| 2 | 224.837 | 4.427 | 50.782 | 0.000 | 216.159 | 233.514 | |
| 3 | 430.066 | 6.968 | 61.723 | 0.000 | 416.41 | 443.722 | |
| 4 | 693.569 | 10.475 | 66.21 | 0.000 | 673.038 | 714.1 | |
| 5 | 1034.006 | 15.096 | 68.494 | 0.000 | 1004.417 | 1063.594 | |
| 6 | 1469.1 | 21.208 | 69.272 | 0.000 | 1427.533 | 1510.666 | |
| 7 | 2039.07 | 29.089 | 70.099 | 0.000 | 1982.057 | 2096.082 | |
| 8 | 2788.011 | 39.319 | 70.908 | 0.000 | 2710.948 | 2865.074 | |
| 9 | 3895.697 | 55.961 | 69.615 | 0.000 | 3786.016 | 4005.378 | |
| 10 | 6730.264 | 98.328 | 68.447 | 0.000 | 6537.545 | 6922.984 | |
| Gini | 0.540781 | 0.004607 | 117.383 | 0 | 0.531752 | 0.549811 | |
-
(Number of obs = 12251, Population size = 15473935.69, Design df = 12250).
Table A11
Quantile group shares, cumulative shares (Lorenz ordinates), generalized Lorenz ordinates, and Gini (Reform 4).
| Group share | Estimate | Linearized Std.Err | z | P>|z| | [95% Conf.Interval] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.011577 | 0.00034 | 34.06 | 0.000 | 0.010911 | 0.012243 |
| 2 | 0.02228 | 0.000421 | 52.874 | 0.000 | 0.021454 | 0.023106 |
| 3 | 0.030642 | 0.000497 | 61.593 | 0.000 | 0.029667 | 0.031617 |
| 4 | 0.039481 | 0.000634 | 62.25 | 0.000 | 0.038238 | 0.040724 |
| 5 | 0.05074 | 0.000765 | 66.285 | 0.000 | 0.04924 | 0.052241 |
| 6 | 0.064658 | 0.000945 | 68.401 | 0.000 | 0.062806 | 0.066511 |
| 7 | 0.084248 | 0.001144 | 73.674 | 0.000 | 0.082006 | 0.086489 |
| 8 | 0.111196 | 0.00143 | 77.771 | 0.000 | 0.108394 | 0.113998 |
| 9 | 0.164158 | 0.002178 | 75.375 | 0.000 | 0.159889 | 0.168426 |
| 10 | 0.42102 | 0.005535 | 76.07 | 0.000 | 0.410172 | 0.431867 |
| Cumul. share | ||||||
| 1 | 0.011577 | 0.00034 | 34.06 | 0.000 | 0.010911 | 0.012243 |
| 2 | 0.033857 | 0.000704 | 48.092 | 0.000 | 0.032477 | 0.035237 |
| 3 | 0.064499 | 0.001131 | 57.042 | 0.000 | 0.062283 | 0.066715 |
| 4 | 0.10398 | 0.001661 | 62.607 | 0.000 | 0.100725 | 0.107235 |
| 5 | 0.15472 | 0.002295 | 67.409 | 0.000 | 0.150222 | 0.159219 |
| 6 | 0.219379 | 0.003035 | 72.29 | 0.000 | 0.213431 | 0.225327 |
| 7 | 0.303626 | 0.003882 | 78.217 | 0.000 | 0.296018 | 0.311234 |
| 8 | 0.414822 | 0.004741 | 87.492 | 0.000 | 0.40553 | 0.424115 |
| 9 | 0.57898 | 0.005535 | 104.611 | 0.000 | 0.568133 | 0.589828 |
| 10 | 1 | |||||
| Gen. Lorenz | ||||||
| 1 | 77.93 | 2.225 | 35.023 | 0.000 | 73.569 | 82.291 |
| 2 | 227.903 | 4.436 | 51.38 | 0.000 | 219.21 | 236.597 |
| 3 | 434.165 | 6.963 | 62.355 | 0.000 | 420.519 | 447.812 |
| 4 | 699.923 | 10.513 | 66.578 | 0.000 | 679.318 | 720.528 |
| 5 | 1041.472 | 15.084 | 69.046 | 0.000 | 1011.909 | 1071.036 |
| 6 | 1476.709 | 21.174 | 69.741 | 0.000 | 1435.209 | 1518.21 |
| 7 | 2043.808 | 28.894 | 70.735 | 0.000 | 1987.176 | 2100.439 |
| 8 | 2792.305 | 39.124 | 71.371 | 0.000 | 2715.624 | 2868.987 |
| 9 | 3897.306 | 55.82 | 69.819 | 0.000 | 3787.9 | 4006.711 |
| 10 | 6731.328 | 98.214 | 68.537 | 0.000 | 6538.832 | 6923.825 |
| Gini | 0.539564 | 0.004607 | 117.112 | 0 | 0.530534 | 0.548594 |
-
(Number of obs = 10338, Population size = 13156031.80, Design df = 10337)
Data and code availability
The data and code in relation to the findings of this study are available upon reasonable request from the corresponding author Evaristo Mwale.
Download links
A two-part list of links to download the article, or parts of the article, in various formats.