A Comparative Methodological Framework for Evaluating Distributional and Nutritional Effects of Food Carbon Pricing

Abstract

Food systems contribute significantly to greenhouse gas emissions, but carbon pricing in this sector remains limited and its distributional implications are not well understood. This paper develops a cross-country microsimulation framework that links Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) emissions intensities with Household Budget Survey (HBS) microdata to assess a food carbon tax in seven EU Member States and Türkiye. The model applies a uniform carbon tax to emissions embodied in food purchases, assumes full pass through to consumer prices and holds household quantities fixed. It produces household level outcomes on food expenditure, diet related emissions, caloric cost per kilojoule and the tax burden as a share of income. Results point to small but consistent regressive effects: post tax Gini coefficients increase slightly in all countries, Reynolds–Smolensky indices are negative and Kakwani values indicate a higher relative burden on lower income groups. A sensitivity analysis using alternative EU and global LCA datasets shows that, despite variation in some emission factors, the relative ordering of foods and the distributional patterns remain broadly similar. The framework can be further extended to incorporate behavioural responses, alternative tax designs and broader food system policies.