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Methodological Foundations of the Traffic Simulation Process

  1. Jenny Díaz-Ramírez
  2. Erfan Nobil
  3. Juan Alberto Estrada-García
  4. Jesús Adrián Martínez-Hernández
  5. Jose Ignacio Huertas  Is a corresponding author
  1. Tecnologico de Monterrey, Sustainable Energy Lab. Expedition FEMSA Building, Av. Garza Sada 2501 Sur. CP 64700, Mexico
  2. Universidad de las Américas Puebla, Puebla de Zaragoza, Mexico
  3. University of Michigan at Ann Arbor, United States
  4. Western University, London, Canada
Research article
Cite this article as: J. Díaz-Ramírez, E. Nobil, J. Alberto Estrada-García, J. Adrián Martínez-Hernández, J. Ignacio Huertas; 2026; Methodological Foundations of the Traffic Simulation Process; International Journal of Microsimulation; 19(2); 37-69. doi: 10.34196/ijm.00342
7 figures and 12 tables

Figures

Proposed methodology for implementing traffic simulation at any scale, aiming at evaluating strategies to improve mobility in a given region.
Zoning examples of the same area: District Tec in Monterrey, Mexico.

(a) TAZ as neighborhoods, (b) TAZ as AGEBs. Note: (a) Original map is a public consultation document from the Partial Urban Development Program of DistritoTec (ImplancMTY, 2021) (b) Original map is a public consultation document, retrieved from https://www.coneval.org.mx/.

Examples of OD matrices representations (a) single trips, one mode, (b) activity chains.
Comparison of available traffic simulation software capabilities
Validation example based on traffic volume profiles using five goodness-of-fit measures.
Examples of improvement implementations in the network.

(a) Pedestrian path flows, (b) Controlled intersections.

Schemes of activity-based trips.

(a) activity chains considering work, study and entertainment. (b) multimodal activity chains. (c) combined multimodal and multi-activity chains.

Tables

Table 1
Classification of traffic simulation models by scale
ScaleLevel of detailRegion sizeMobility modelingAssumptionsModeling principlesUnderlying algorithmsSoftware options
MicroscopicEach vehicleSmall city districts (e.g., freeway, arterial, corridor, etc.)Individual dynamics of vehicles in intersections, specific roads, or small city zones.Individual vehicles make decisions to get to their destination.Individual mobility decisions in networks will represent the mobility system.Longitudinal model, Lateral model, intersection modelAimsun,
Transmodeler, SUMO, PTV VISSIM, MATSIM, Cube Dynasim
MesoscopicEach vehicle.
Movement is ruled by the average speed on the travel link.
City districtsFlows of vehicles between city zones by type of activity.Vehicles moving in queuesQueues of individual vehicles that follow shockwave dynamics.Longitudinal model, intersection modelAimsun, Transmodeler, Mezzo Polaris, SUMO Meso
MacroscopicAverage vehicle dynamics, such as traffic density and average speed.Entire citiesFlows of traffic between largely aggregated zones.Aggregated vehicles flowing by main roads.Aggregated vehicles flowing through roads based on fluid particle dynamics.Flow modelAimsun, Transmodeler, PTV VISSUM
Table 2
Car-Following traffic models
ClassModelsDescription
Gap acceptanceGipps model
(Gipps, 1981)
Based on the premise that each driver sets limits on their desired braking and acceleration rates. The speed is based on a safe following distance to avoid a possible collision with the vehicle ahead. The behavior is controlled with response times, break rates, and maximum desired speed. This model is widely preferred for simulation purposes (Ranjitkar and Kawamura, 2005).
Krauss model
(Krauß, 1998)
Alike but simpler than Gipps’ model. A stochastic model based on the same assumption that vehicles move without colliding. The model is set up with the same parameters as in the Gipps model. It is implemented in the SUMO simulator (Kanagaraj et al., 2013; Ranjitkar and Kawamura, 2005).
Psycho-physiological driver behaviorGazis-Hermann-Rothery
(GHR) model
Referred to as the general car-following behavior. The relationship between a leader and a follower vehicle is a stimulus-response type of function where the follower vehicle’s acceleration is proportional to its speed, the speed difference with respect to the leader, and the space headway. This type of model assumes that the follower reacts to arbitrarily small changes in the relative speed (Janson Olstam and Tapani, 2004).
Leutzbach and Wiedemann model (1986)It takes into consideration the influence of the driver’s perception on velocity control. A driver can be in different driving modes, such as free driving, approaching, following, and braking. The driver switches from one mode to another as soon as they reach a certain threshold, which can be expressed as a function of speed difference, space headway, etc. Versions of this model are used in VISSIM. (Kanagaraj et al., 2013; Ranjitkar and Kawamura, 2005).
Fritzsche model (1994)This model also considers human perception in defining the model regimes. For example, there is a threshold for the minimum speed difference that the driver perceives. In addition, it incorporates four thresholds for the follower’s space headway to its leader: Desired distance, the risky distance, the safe distance, and the braking distance (Janson Olstam and Tapani, 2004).
Cell based modelNagel-Schreckenberg model (cellular – automata)
(Nagel et al., 1998)
A computationally efficient stochastic model that simulates the traffic flow using only integer operations. It incorporates imperfections of driving using a noise term in the update rules.
The model deals with single-lane traffic flow of cars moving in a one-dimensional cellular chain under periodic boundary conditions, which considers the desired maximum speed, vehicle acceleration, deceleration, random delays, and update of vehicle location (Liu, 2012; Ranjitkar and Kawamura, 2005).
Trajectory based modelNewell model (2002)Based on the premise that the driver of the following vehicle drives as a shifted space trajectory of the leader vehicle. The space trajectory of the following vehicle is the same as that of the leader vehicle except for a translation in space and in time. It is driven by a time lag and a distance lag (Ranjitkar and Kawamura, 2005).
Intelligent Driver Model (IDM)IDM is a car-following model that describes the dynamics of the positions and velocities of single vehicles using ordinary differential equations (Gora et al., 2020).
Table 3
Zoning methods
TypeAuthorDescription
Constraint based(Openshaw, 1977)Maximization of the statistical precision of the estimation of the OD matrix cells.
(Baass, 1981)Trip generation/attraction homogeneity
Adjustment of TAZ boundaries to political, administrative, or statistical ones.
Minimization of intra-zonal trips
(O’Neill, 1991)Trip generation/attraction homogeneity
Contiguity and convexity zones
Compactness of TAZ shapes
Exclusiveness (no doughnuts or islands) of zones
Equity in terms of trip generation (small standard deviation across zones).
Adjustment of TAZ boundaries to political, administrative, or statistical ones.
Respect for physical separators
Decision-makers' preferences are considered when defining the number of TAZs.
Model based(Prosperi et al., 2021)Traffic Zones Discretization and Origin-Destination Matrix Estimation by means of Fusion.
(Luo and Zhang, 2021)TAZ are defined by combining static zoning and dynamic zoning, by adjusting the zones based on real-time traffic, enabling a maximum flow control strategy.
Data-Driven(Martínez et al., 2009)TAZs are defined based on actual travel demand patterns, using a density-smoothing algorithm.
(Yang et al., 2022)Clustering and GIS-based spatial analysis is used for grouping spatial units with similar mobility characteristics.
Criteria
Based
(Crevo, 1991)Minimize prediction errors associated with the spatial aggregation.
(Ortúzar and Willumsen, 2011)The aggregation error caused by the assumption that all activities are concentrated at the centroid of the TAZ should not be too large.
Each zone must be compatible with other administrative divisions, particularly with census zones.
TAZ should be as homogeneous as possible in terms of land use or composition.
TAZ boundaries must be compatible with cordons, screen lines, and those of previous zoning systems. Avoid using main roads as zone boundaries.
The zone configuration should facilitate the clear definition of centroid connectors.
Zones do not have to be of equal size; if anything, they could be of similar dimensions in travel time units (i.e., smaller zones in congested areas).
Table 4
Required input data
TypeExampleDescriptionUsed in:
TMSMDC
NetworkRoad geometry and capacityNumber of lanes, designated turning lanes, length of lanes, free flow speed.X
Traffic controlsTraffic signals’ location, signal timing, etc. Also known as geometric data, it consists of the number of lanes, designated turning lanes, length, and free flow speed. Also, it may include data on traffic control devices, such as the location of traffic signals and their signal timing.X
Level of service (LoS)The measure of the quality of flow through a roadway segment or an intersection.X
Location of activity entersPredefined TAZ (attraction and generation zones).X
Transit systemPublic transport information (type, lines, stops, users, etc.)XX
VehiclesVehicle mixComposition of the vehicle fleet in the study area.XX
Maximum acceleration rateThe performance obtained from vehicle characteristics like weight and power varies according to the type of vehicle. In general, for lower speeds, the acceleration rates are greater.X
LoS of vehiclesCapacity (number of passengers), idle capacity,
Vehicle lengthsIt is the average length of the vehicles in the study area, which may vary according to the region and the needs of the population.XX
TrafficVolume studiesThe annual average daily traffic: Count location and duration using physical counting. It can be done with Inductive loop, magnetic, pneumatic road tubes, active or passive infrared, microwave radar, ultrasonic, passive acoustic or video image processing.X
Directional volume studiesEntry volumes, turning volumes, and turning movements at intersections.XX
DemandTraffic reports (modal preferences, travel habits, OD matrices, accident reports)XXX
Travel time and delays studiesAverage time that it takes to go from point A to B through studies requiring a test vehicle (floating-car technique, average speed-technique, moving vehicle techniques) or not (license-plate method and the interview method).X
Capacity flow dataMaximum volume per segment, maximum entrance rate, maximum (saturation) flow.XX
PeopleTemporal locationGPS position at a given timeX
Socio-demographicsAge, education, economic activity, income, family composition, etc.X
Driving characteristicsAggressivity levelAverage speed, free speed, and other safety perception parameters.XX
Modal splitProportion of mode and type of cars used by drivers.XXX
Average occupancyUse of HOVs, trip generating activities.XX
Accident ratesFrequency, location, time of the day of incidents and accidents.XX
  1. TM = Transport demand modeling; SMB = Simulation model building; DC = driving characteristics;

Table 5
Transport demand models
Trip-based approach (TBA)Activity-based approach (ABA)
ScaleCity or large urban regionUrban district or smaller
Type of simulationMacroscopicMesoscopic or microscopic
Assumption about tripsProduction and attraction of trips by zone (Ortúzar and Willumsen, 2011)Trips generated and constrained by the activities of individuals
Spatial assumptionsEach zone only contains the centroid.Zones contain individual households and activity centers (Codeca, 2022)
ApproachIndividual, not related trips (Ortúzar and Willumsen, 2011)Interrelated tours and trip chains
Required dataZone aggregated dataIndividual data by household and individual attributes
CommentsData must be complete for each zone; fewer approximations are acceptableApproximations at the individual level can lead to a good representation by aggregation.
Table 6
Different formulations of OD matrices required in simulation models
Input for simulation softwareDescriptionTransformation to OD matrix
# Trips from centroid to centroid once a daySoftware packages may require input trips that go from one location to another.This is a direct formulation of the OD matrix, which could result from the generation stage of the transportation model, and can be requested as an input for each location.
# Trips from centroid to centroid over periods of time (hourly, 15 minutes)Simulation software may require assigning trips at different time periods as the simulation resolution increases.This is a formulation that is extended into a 3rd dimension of time intervals (Fellendorf and Vortisch, 2010).
# Trips from centroid to centroid of different modes over periods of time, etc.As more detail is used in the simulation, additional disaggregated information could be included as input for simulation software packages.This formulation extends the previous OD matrices and may include several factors that differentiate the traffic as intended.
Probability that a user has a specific location, activity chain, and mode of transportMeso- and microscopic simulation software will require a broad set of highly disaggregated data.This formulation of the OD is disaggregated and may be obtained from the previously explained multidimensional OD matrix. It may require calculating the conditional probabilities of the individual’s travel characteristics (Codeca, 2022; Eom et al., 2026).
Table 7
Methods for travel demand modelling
CategoryMethodApproachModel StageLevelDetailsSources
TBAABAGDMAMiMeMa
Simple methodsGrowth factorXXXUpdating an old matrix using the actual number of trips.(Furnes, 1965)
Tri- proportionalXXXGrowth factor considering cost distribution.(Bierlaire, 1997)
Theoretical methodsGravitationalXXXXAnalogy with Newton’s gravitational law.(Casey, 1955)
Entropy maximizationXXXXXDerived from the second law of thermodynamics.(Ortúzar and Willumsen, 2011)
Agent-basedXXXXXXXXDerived from cellular automata theory, using individual beha-vioral rules to define aggregate transportation.(Zhang and Levinson, 2004)
Counting-based methodsProportional assignmentXXXXXXConsider that the flow proportion using a specific link is inde-pendent of the complete traffic flow.(Dial, 1971)
Restricted capacity assignmentXXXXBased on Wardrop equilibrium (1952), taking congestion into account. The flow proportion depends on the complete traffic flow.(Beckman et al., 1956)
Estimation methodsLinear least squaresXXXXXXFit the parameters of a model that minimizes the difference between estimated and real flows(Bierlaire, 1997)
Maximum Likelihood estimationXXXXXXWith a probability model and statistical hypotheses to make statistical inference.(Ben-Akiva and Bierlaire, 1999)
Machine Learning methodsClassificationXXXXXAlgorithms based on decision trees that optimize the modeling of mode choice based on decision rules.(Hillel et al., 2021)
ClusteringXXXXXXUnsupervised algorithms that group zones in the study region. Based on individual characteristics.(Hafezi et al., 2019)
RegressionXXXXXXXXSupervised algorithms that forecast the demand for travel, the distribution of activities of trips, and can forecast.(Rocha et al., 2021)
  1. TBA: Travel-based approach, ABA: Activity-based approach, G: Generation stage, D: distribution stage, M: Mode choice stage, A: Trip assignment stage, I: Microscopic simulation level, E: Mesoscopic simulation level, and A: Macroscopic simulation level.

Table 8
Most common simulation software tools
SoftwareCost & LicenseUser-FriendlinessModeling ApproachVisualizationStrengths (Power)Limitations
AimsunCommercial, expensive; academic licenses availableUser-friendly GUI, steep learning curveMicroscopic, mesoscopic, hybridStrong 2D/3D visualizationFlexible (multi-res), good for large urban projectsCostly, proprietary
TransModelerCommercial (Caliper Corp.)GUI is okay but less intuitive than Aimsun/VISSIMMicro + meso + dynamic traffic assignment3D visualization (moderate quality)Strong for planning + operations integrationLess global user base, fewer academic users
SUMOFree, open-sourceModerate (steep learning initially), script-basedMicro + meso2D GUI, limited native 3D (extendable via Unity/ Blender)Scalable (city-wide), great for AI, CAV, RLGraphics not polished; scripting needed
PTV VISSIMCommercial, very expensiveVery user-friendly GUIMicroscopic onlyExcellent 2D/3D visualsMost realistic driver behavior (Wiedemann), industry standardHigh cost, slower on very large networks
PTV VISUMCommercial, costlyGUI-focused, planner-friendlyMacroscopic (strategic planning)Visualization is more schematic than realisticExcellent for demand modeling, network assignmentNot for micro-level traffic operations
MATSimFree, open-sourceCode-based, not very beginner-friendlyAgent-based, mesoscopicLimited built-in; external tools for visualsHuge-scale simulations (whole regions)Requires coding skills, less visual
CubeCommercial (Bentley)Planner-oriented GUIMacroscopic (demand forecasting)Limited visualizationWidely used for travel demand modelingNot for microscopic operations
DynasimCommercial (PTV legacy)Less common nowMicroscopicDecent visualizationEarlier detailed micro toolMostly replaced by VISSIM
MezzoFree (academic, KTH Sweden)Basic, not very user-friendlyMesoscopic (stochastic simulation)Very limitedEfficient meso-sim, academic researchNot widely used, poor visuals
PolarisFree (open source, Argonne National Lab)Requires codingAgent-based, mesoscopicLimitedStrong research tool for large networksSteep learning, low adoption
Table 9
Metrics used for calibrating traffic models.
Traffic modelSoftwareParameterDescription
Gap acceptanceBased on Gipps (AIMSUM)Look ahead distance or Safety gap or safety distance or Headway or min distance between vehiclesNecessary distance to avoid a collision if the leader decelerates heavily
Psycho-physiological driver behaviorBased on GHR models
(MITSIM)
SUMO
VISSIM
Based on Fritzsche (PARAMICS)
Based on Wiedeman model
(Driver’s) Reaction time or
Time headway
Can be the same for all drivers (macro) or specific per type of vehicle, per level of congestion (micro), for example. It influences density and flow.
(Driver’s) magnitude of the reaction (acceleration, deceleration, or retardation rates)Can influence travel time delay and average speed
Car-following parameters (α, β, γ)Proportionality rations between acceleration and speed, speed difference between follower and leader, and space headway.
Max waiting time, Standstill distance,
Speed model, critical gap, follow up gap.
The gaps can influence the maximum capacity of a subordinate flow within a node. The max waiting time is the longest time a vehicle of subordinate flow can wait to enter a node.
Action pointsThresholds where the driver changes his/her behavior.
Threshold for perception of negative and positive speed differencesBelow these thresholds, the follower doesn’t perceive the speed differences.
Desired time gap, risky time gap
Safety time gap
Required to compute the thresholds: Desired distance, risky distance, safe distance, and braking distance.
Several fix and random numbers for different thresholds.Required to compute the thresholds: Desired distance between stationary vehicles, desired min following distance at low-speed differences, max following distance, approaching point, and decreasing, and increasing speed differences.
Cell based model MATSIMLength of the road, length of the cell, probability of decrease speed, max speed, probability of switch lane, initial density, number of cars, acceleration rate.Parameters required to simulate one-lane highway traffic model with the Cellular automaton model.
Trajectory based modelTime lag, Distance lag
Desired speed, Desired time gap, Minimum gap, Max acceleration, Comfortable deceleration
Required by the IDM model.
Table 10
Recommended error functions in traffic simulation
FunctionDescriptionFormulaRecommendation / Assumption/Strength
R2
Coefficient of determination
Indicates how well the simulated variable explains the real one.R2=1(yoys)2(yoy)2Assumes linear correlation.
Easy to understand, and common [0,1]
GEH statistic
(Geoffrey E. Havers)
Normalizes the relative differences with respect to the magnitude of the compared flows.GEH=2(yoys)2yo+ysMitigates the misleading effects that relative differences may produce.
<5: good fit, > 10: poor fit
MAPE
Mean absolute percentage error
Indicates the average percentage difference between observed and predicted values.MAPE=100nn|yoysyo|Easy to interpret as a percentage
[0 – 100]
<10%: good fit
RMSE
Root Mean Square Error
Statistical measure that estimates the standard deviation of the errors distribution.RMSE=(yoys)2nIn the same units as the variable. Not a standard range.
Penalizes large errors.
Relative differences with Cosine similaritySimilarity between two vectors or tensors by means of the dot product between them.RD=1|yoys|yoysFor multi-dimensional variables.
Easy to read. Range [0,1]
>0.9: good fit
Table 11
Model performance metrics
MetricUnitsDescriptionDetailScalePurpose
MiMeMaNIIO
Travel timemin/veh sec/vehAverage travel time of all vehicles of the simulation or in a specific facility or trajectory.xxxxxx
Travel Speedkm/hRate of motion (expressed in distance per unit of time)xxxxxx
Travel Distancekm/vehAverage extent of the space between the trip origin and the destination, measured along a vehicular route.xxxxxx
DelaySec or minAdditional travel time experienced by travelers at speeds less than the free flow (posted) speed.xxxx
Speed ratio-Degree of traffic flow through intersections (speed adjacent to the access point over speed along the corresponding road section).xxxxx
Stopping frequency% Stops per time-space binAverage relative frequency of stops per time, space, or segment bin. Shown in histograms.xxxx
Volume of Traffic or Traffic Flow% Vehicles or persons per time-space binNumber of persons or vehicles passing a point (or intersection) on a roadway per time interval. Shown in histograms.xxxx
Congestion of streetssec or minTime lost per trips, level of congestion per road.xxxx
Saturation (flow) rate% Vehicles per time binMaximum rate of flow of traffic in a road segment per time interval.xxxxxx
Densityveh/km or veh/km-lane or
% Capacity of lane/road
Number of vehicles on the roadway segment averaged over space.xxxxxx
Queue Lengthkm or
# Vehicles
Length of queued vehicles waiting to be served by the system.xxxx
Mode Split% PersonsPercentage of travelers using each travel mode (SOV, HOV, transit, bicycle, pedestrian, etc.).xxx
Time-Space Diagramskm/h per (time-space bin)3D graphs or surface response plots showing the speed at various times and spaces (positions).xx
Time-Flow Diagrams% of maximum flowGraphs show the flow behavior at various times with different densities.xx
Cost of travel (due to delays)TimeThe sum of the volume delay, turn penalty and junction delay functions.xxxx
Cost of travel$ or timeDynamic cost functions depend on the experienced travel time.xxxxx
  1. Mi: Microscopic or specific, Me: Mesoscopic, Ma: Macroscopic or network-wide, I: Input, O: Output, N: Network-wide, I: vehicle or user specific.

Table 12
Examples of expected results from different scenarios
Simulated scenario element modifiedExamplesExpected resultsExamples of Sources
NetworkAdd/remove stoplights, lanes, entrances, intersection designs, etc.
Change of lane uses (bikes per vehicles)
Different modal orientations of integrated urban transportation systems
Changes in congestion, in travel times, in transferring time, integration effectiveness.(Fierek and Zak, 2012)
VehicleChange buses for electric buses
Penetration of connected and automated vehicles
Changes in emissions
Changes in congestion and network capacity
Changes in accident rate and road safety
(Raju and Farah, 2021)
Traffic flow managementLane sorting strategies
Converting HOVs into CACC (Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control) lanes
Cooperative ITS (Intelligent Transportation Systems)
Changes in traffic streams, operational traffic performance(Codeca and Härri, 2018; Raju and Farah, 2021)
Policy implementationFloating cars versus local taxis fleetsDifferences in passenger wait time, pickup trip time(Maciejewski et al., 2016)

Data and code availability

N/A

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