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LifeSim Childhood: Extrapolating Intervention Effects and Public Cost Savings from Birth to Adolescence in the UK

  1. Shrathinth Venkatesh  Is a corresponding author
  2. Ieva Skarda
  3. Aase Villadsen
  4. Miqdad Asaria
  5. Jan R Boehnke
  6. Alan Brennan
  7. Christian Krekel
  8. Mark Mon-Williams
  9. George Ploubidis
  10. Paul A Tiffin
  11. Richard Cookson
  1. Centre for Health Economics, University of York, Heslington, United Kingdom
  2. Centre for Longitudinal Studies, Social Research Institute, University College London, United Kingdom
  3. School of Health Sciences, University of Dundee, United Kingdom
  4. School of Medicine and Population Health, University of Sheffield, United Kingdom
  5. School of Psychology, University of Leeds, United Kingdom
  6. Social Research Institute, University College London, United Kingdom
  7. The Hull York Medical School, University of York, Heslington, United Kingdom
Research article
Volume 19(2) Summer 2026
Cite this article as: S. Venkatesh, I. Skarda, A. Villadsen, M. Asaria, J. R Boehnke, A. Brennan, C. Krekel, M. Mon-Williams, G. Ploubidis, P. A Tiffin, R. Cookson; 2026; LifeSim Childhood: Extrapolating Intervention Effects and Public Cost Savings from Birth to Adolescence in the UK; International Journal of Microsimulation; 19(2); 70-111. doi: 10.34196/ijm.00343
9 figures and 16 tables

Figures

Figure 1
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Structure of LifeSim Childhood. Ongoing work will extend this to include risk factors up to age 14. The current list of risk factors includes early years household income, having a teenage mother, low birth weight, disability, delayed school readiness, etc. Outcomes are estimated from the age of the risk factor up to age 17, and will be extended to age 23 when the new sweep of the MCS is available. Our current outcomes include cognitive ability, socio-emotional scores, hospitalisation, exclusion from school, etc. The important adverse outcomes at age 17 we currently focus on are poor GCSE performance, psychological distress, obesity, smoking and poor health.
Figure 2
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Simplified directed acyclic diagram (DAG) for the effect of early childhood income. The preferred model controls for everything in the “Confounders” list. We also run an “extra conservative” model which controls for additional variables about which there is room for disagreement because they are partly mediators as well as partly confounders - we call these “partly confounding mediators”. These additional control variables in the extra conservative model are: IMD, maternal MH, HH employment, grandparent’s education, and child’s disability. HH education is highest education in the household, HH disability is an indicator for any parental disability in the household, IMD is the index of multiple deprivation, maternal MH is Maternal malaise measured at 9 months, HH employment is an indicator for labour force participation in the household and the child’s disability is observed at age 3.
Figure 3
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Percentage reduction in adverse outcomes with each intervention. Income increase scenarios - Scenario 1 - Poorest to second poorest, Scenario 2 - Poorest two to middle, Scenario 3 - Poorest to richest, Scenario 4 - All to richest. Outcomes are measured at MCS sweep 7 when respondents are around age 17. Poor GCSEs also includes N5 results for Scotland, Psychological distress is identified using the Kessler scale, Obesity is based on UK90 thresholds for sex and age, Regular smoking is more than 6 cigarettes a week.
Figure 4
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Estimated gain in annual average WELLBYs per child in the general population cohort. Income increase scenarios - Scenario 1 - Poorest to second poorest, Scenario 2 - Poorest two to middle, Scenario 3 - Poorest to richest, Scenario 4 - All to richest. Life satisfaction is based on a simple linear transformation of parent reported SDQ emotional symptoms score.
Figure 5
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Baseline annual cost per child in each MCS sweep broken down by source. Truancy, exclusion and special education needs are not measured at age 17 so age 14 values are carried over. Conduct disorder does not include justice costs and the unit cost is lower from age 11.
Figure 6
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Annual cost savings per child for each scenario in each MCS sweep broken down by source. The bar plots clustered at each age represent scenarios 1, 2, 3, and 4. Income increase scenarios - Scenario 1 - Poorest to second poorest, Scenario 2 - Poorest two to middle, Scenario 3 - Poorest to richest, Scenario 4 - All to richest. Truancy, exclusion and special education needs are not measured at age 17 so age 14 values are carried over. Conduct disorder does not include justice costs and the unit cost is lower from age 11.
Figure A1
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Density plot of early years OECD equivalised weekly household income in the MCS split into quintiles. The means for each quintile or fifth of the distribution are £123.47, £207.40, £304.54, £419.29 and £659.05 respectively.
Figure A2
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Baseline prevalence of adverse outcomes at age 17. Outcomes are measured at MCS sweep 7 when respondents are around age 17. In Scotland, Poor GCSEs refers to N5 exam results, psychological distress is identified using the Kessler scale, obesity is based on UK90 thresholds for sex and age, regular smoking is more than 6 cigarettes a week.
Figure A3
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Baseline life satisfaction proxied by SDQ emotional symptoms score in each MCS sweep. Life satisfaction is based on a simple linear transformation of parent reported SDQ emotional symptoms scale.

Tables

Table 1
Simulated effects of scenarios for a UK birth cohort of 700,000 children
OutcomeScenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4
Adverse outcomes (Number of cases prevented by age 17)
Poor GCSEs10,90936,36634,83176,999
Psychological distress6975,5767,68522,916
Obesity-7854,0668,87531,353
Regular smoker3,41112,41011,25122,638
Poor health3,93710,34410,89724,396
Public cost savings (Cost savings between ages 3 and 17, in millions of 2023 £s)
Total savings1971,0171,0122,298
By sourceAny hospitalisation-4-330127
Disability74657155
Conduct disorder267884178
Special education needs1077717111,621
Persistent truancy16513
Permanent exclusion61118124205
Wellbeing improvement (WELLBYs gained between ages 3 and 17)
WELLBYs282,840733,257918,5632,249,815
Value (in millions of 2023 £s)3,6779,53211,94129,248
Scenario cost (Cost to increase income to quintile minimum, in millions of 2023 £s)
Cost estimate-2,134-9,717-20,240-52,020

  1. The umber of births in the UK in 2021 was around 700,000. Costs and wellbeing values are discounted at 3.5% per year calculated at birth. Tables with baseline levels and unadjusted figures can be found in the appendix. Income increase scenarios - Scenario 1 - Poorest to second poorest, Scenario 2 - Poorest two to middle, Scenario 3 - Poorest to richest, Scenario 4 - All to richest. Negative values in the table are increases in cases or public costs. Poor GCSEs also includes N5 results for Scotland, Psychological distress is identified using the Kessler scale, Obesity is based on UK90 thresholds for sex and age, Regular smoking is more than 6 cigarettes a week. The program cost is based on minimum the amount that would need to be transferred to each household over five years to move them across fifths of the income distribution.

Table 2
Simulated effects from three models of increasing the income of families with children in the poorest fifth to that of the second poorest fifth for a UK birth cohort of 700,000 children
OutcomePreferred ModelExtra ConservativeUnadjusted
Adverse outcomes (Number of cases prevented by age 17)
Poor GCSEs10,9095,96515,068
Psychological distress697-152-298
Obesity-785-1,0132,740
Regular smoking3,4111,5275,837
Poor Health3,9372,4995,254
Public cost savings (Cost savings between ages 3 and 17, in millions of 2023 £s)
Total savings197-155350
By sourceHospitalisation-4-1713
Disability7-710
Conduct disorder261543
Special education needs107-179212
Truancy112
Exclusion613268
Wellbeing improvement (WELLBYs gained between ages 3 and 17)
WELLBYs282,840180,847435,380
Value (in millions of £s)3,6772,3515,660

  1. Number of births in the UK in 2021 was around 700,000. Costs and wellbeing values are discounted at 3.5% per year calculated at birth. Tables with baseline levels and unadjusted figures can be found in the appendix. All results are the estimated impact of income increase shift scenario 1 - Poorest to second poorest. Negative values in the table are increases in cases or public costs. Poor GCSEs also includes N5 results for Scotland, Psychological distress is identified using the Kessler scale, Obesity is based on UK90 thresholds for sex and age, Regular smoking is more than 6 cigarettes a week. The additional control variables in the extra conservative model are: IMD, maternal mental health, household employment, grandparent’s education, and child’s disability.

Table 3
Effects of increasing income by $1000 (£676) in Lifesim compared to estimates from Cooper and Stewart (2021)
Cooper and Stewart (2021)LifeSim Childhood
PaperOutcomeAgeEffectOutcomeAgeEffect
Blau (1999) (All families in US)
PIAT Maths5+0.01NFER Progress in maths70.02
PIAT Reading5+0.01BAS Word reading70.02
PPVT3+0.01BAS Naming vocabulary3-50.01
Votruba-Drzal (2006) (All families in US)
PIAT Maths5+0.02NFER Progress in maths70.02
PIAT Reading5+0.02BAS Word reading70.02
Fernald et al. (2008) (Poor households in Mexico)
PPVT4-60.21BAS Naming vocabulary3-50.03
Milligan and Stabile (2011) (Low education households in Canada)
PIAT Maths6-100.07NFER Progress in maths70.03
Hyperactivity4-100.07SDQ Hyperactivity5-110.0
Conduct disorder4-100.10SDQ Conduct problems5-110.03
Dahl and Lochner (2012) (Poor families in US)
Maths8-140.21NFER Progress in maths70.03
Reading8-140.21BAS Word reading70.03
Gennetian and Miller (2002) (Poor families in Minnesota)
BPI Internalising5-130.12SDQ Internalising5-140.03
BPI Externalising5-130.11SDQ Externalising5-140.02
Dearing et al. (2006) (Poor households in US)
CBCL Internalising2-50.02SDQ Internalising3-50.03
CBCL Externalising2-50.03SDQ Externalising3-50.01
Zachrisson and Dearing (2015) (All families in Norway)
CBCL Internalising2-30.02SDQ Internalising30.01

  1. Effect sizes are based on standard deviation increases in outcome for a $1000 increase in income. The most similar available test, based on concept measured and age at measurement, in the MCS is used for comparison with those presented in Cooper and Stewart (2021). The age range for the LifeSim estimates are based on the sweep age ratherthan actual age at time of testing. All MCS measures, except the SDQ scores, are age and ability adjusted measures that are standardised within sample. PIAT - Peabody individual achievement test, NFER - National foundation for educational research, PPVT - Peabody picture vocabulary test, BAS - British ability scales, SDQ - Strength and difficulties questionnaire, BPI - Basic personality inventory, and CBCL - Child behaviour checklist. Ages in MCS correspond to MCS sweeps and not age at observation (age 3 - sweep 2, age 5 - sweep 3 and so on until age 17 - sweep 7).

Table A1
Summary of unit costs currently used in LifeSim Childhood
Public Cost Sector
Simulated
Outcomes		Ages Available in MCSNHSSocialEducationCriminal
Justice		Outcome
Costed		Annual Unit
Cost(2023 £)
Hospital
Admission		3, 5, 7,
11, 14, 17		XInpatient
visit for children		1,587
Disability3, 5, 7,
11, 14, 17		XPer child
cost to NHS		1,008
Conduct
Disorder		3, 5, 7,
11, 14, 17		XXXConduct
disorder		3,092 (5 to 10)
1,963 (11 to 16)
236 (17+)
Special
Education
Needs		7, 11, 14XEHC Plan25,500
Any
Truancy		11, 14XPersistent
Truancy		943
Any
Exclusion		11, 14XAlternate
Provision		21,848

  1. Ages in MCS correspond to MCS sweeps and not age at observation (age 3 - sweep 2, age 5 - sweep 3 and so on until age 17 - sweep 7).

Table A2
Sources of unit costs currently used by LifeSim childhood
Simulated OutcomeMCS SourceCost OutcomeAges costedCost yearCost source
Hospital
Admission		Parent
admission		Hospital0-182020Average cost of a single inpatient hospitalisation for a child aged between 0 and 17 in the UK in 2003/2004 at 2019/2020 prices. (Dale et al., 2024)
DisabilityParentHealthcare2016average annual cost of healthcare for a child in the UK. (Kelly et al., 2018)
Conduct disorderParentConduct
disorder		5 to 182008Costs from 4 papers published between 2000 and 2007. (Bonin et al., 2011)
Special
Educational
Needs		TeacherEHC Plan5 to 182023Average incremental cost to DfE of student with EHC plan in 2023 (Acton et al., 2024)
Persistent truancyCMPersistent
Truancy		11 to 122005Cost education welfare services in England and number of persistent truants in 2005. (Brookes et al., 2007)*
Permanent School
Exclusion		ParentAlternative
Provision		5 to 182018Survey of 101 LAs by ISOS for the Department for Education in FY 2017-2018. (Bryant et al., 2018)
  1. *

    also source for costs in the Greater Manchester unit cost database.

Table A3
Simulation population descriptive statistics for confounders and exposure
CharacteristicMean/ProportionStandard Error
SexMale0.503
EthnicityWhite0.860
Mixed0.032
Indian0.018
Pakistani or Bangladeshi0.044
Black0.027
Other0.013
CountryEngland0.826
Wales0.047
Scotland0.091
Northern Ireland0.037
RegionNorth East0.037
North West0.103
Yorkshire and the Humber0.089
East Midlands0.071
West Midlands0.081
East of England0.088
London0.130
South East0.148
South West0.078
Household Highest
Education		No qualifications0.119
NVQ level 10.081
NVQ level 20.340
NVQ level 30.098
NVQ level 40.293
NVQ level 50.037
Household
Characteristics		Disability in household0.029
Single parent0.146
Age of mother (at birth)*28.7230.041
Annual early years income*18226.07274.836
  1. *

    mean and standard error, all other numbers are proportion of population in category.

Table A4
Simulated baseline outcome means
OutcomeAge 3Age 5Age 7Age 11Age 14Age 17
Poor GCSEs0.38
(0.045)
Psychological distress0.25
(0.026)
Obesity0.26
(0.046)
Regular smoker0.13
(0.044)
Poor health0.10
(0.036)
Life satisfaction7.89
(0.125)		7.90
(0.125)		7.73
(0.146)		7.41
(0.166)		7.23
(0.173)		7.14
(0.181)
Any hospitalisation0.22
(0.034)		0.16
(0.033)		0.14
(0.032)		0.15
(0.031)		0.15
(0.041)		0.19
(0.043)
Disability0.05
(0.022)		0.07
(0.024)		0.08
(0.026)		0.11
(0.033)		0.14
(0.033)		0.16
(0.046)
Conduct disorder0.09
(0.005)		0.09
(0.005)		0.09
(0.006)		0.09
(0.007)		0.08
(0.006)
Special education needs0.05
(0.030)		0.06
(0.028)		0.06
(0.030)
Any truancy0.04
(0.031)		0.05
(0.025)
Any exclusion0.06
(0.066)		0.09
(0.043)

  1. Terms in brackets are the standard deviation of the distribution of means across simulations. Ages correspond to MCS sweeps and not age at observation (age 3 - sweep 2, age 5 - sweep 3 and so on until age 17 - sweep 7).

Table A5
Simulated baseline cost means by source
OutcomeAge 3Age 5Age 7Age 11Age 14Age 17
Any hospitalisation349.49
(54.33)		246.68
(51.84)		215.45
(51.02)		243.71
(49.26)		237.38
(65.29)		308.90
(67.54)
Disability46.67
(21.74)		73.89
(24.25)		84.12
(26.00)		114.43
(33.64)		138.30
(33.13)		161.57
(46.54)
Conduct disorder283.86
(16.04)		273.90
(16.19)		209.21
(13.89)		175.65
(13.49)		67.39
(4.48)
Special education needs1221.48
(758.85)		1583.28
(697.62)		1630.01
(770.40)		1630.01
(770.40)
Permanent exclusion137.77
(148.40)		154.34
(73.18)		154.34
(73.18)
Persistent truancy7.79
(5.37)		8.91
(4.38)		8.91
(4.38)

  1. Costs for special education needs, permanent exclusion, and persistent truancy are carried over from age 14 to age 17 as those outcomes are not measured at age 17. Terms in brackets are the standard deviation of the distribution of means across simulations. Ages correspond to MCS sweeps and not age at observation (age 3 - sweep 2, age 5 - sweep 3 and so on until age 17 - sweep 7).

Table A6
Simulated undiscounted effects of scenarios for a UK birth cohort of 700,000 children
OutcomeScenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4
Adverse outcomes (Number of cases prevented by age 17)
Poor GCSEs10,90936,36634,83176,999
Psychological distress6975,5767,68522,916
Obesity-7854,0668,87531,353
Regular smoker3,41112,41011,25122,638
Poor health3,93710,34410,89724,396
Public cost savings (Cost savings between ages 3 and 17, in millions of 2023 £s)
Total savings2961,5741,5123,394
By sourceAny hospitalisation−5−344181
Disability116982217
Conduct disorder36109117248
Special education needs1551,1971,0622,404
Persistent truancy210921
Permanent exclusion97192198324
Wellbeing improvement (WELLBYs gained between ages 3 and 17)
WELLBYs398,6291,042,5331,326,5713,293,455
Value (in millions of 2023 £s)5,18213,55317,24542,815
Scenario cost (Cost to increase income to quintile minimum, in millions of 2023 £s)
Cost estimate−2,364−10,760−22,414−57,607

  1. Number of births in the UK in 2021 was around 700,000. Tables with baseline levels and unadjusted figures can be found in the online appendix. Income increase scenarios - Scenario 1 - Poorest to second poorest, Scenario 2 - Poorest two to middle, Scenario 3 - Poorest to richest, Scenario 4 - All to richest Negative values in the table are increases in cases or public costs. Poor GCSEs also includes N5 results for Scotland, Psychological distress is identified using the Kessler scale, Obesity is based on UK90 thresholds for sex and age, Regular smoking is more than 6 cigarettes a week.

Table A7
Simulated effects of scenarios for a UK birth cohort of 700,000 children with SDQ internalising as the wellbeing measure
OutcomeScenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4
Adverse outcomes (Number of cases prevented by age 17)
Poor GCSEs10,90936,36634,83176,999
Psychological distress6975,5767,68522,916
Obesity−7854,0668,87531,353
Regular smoker3,41112,41011,25122,638
Poor health3,93710,34410,89724,396
Public cost savings (Cost savings between ages 3 and 17, in millions of 2023 £s)
Total savings1971,0171,0122,298
By sourceAny hospitalisation−4−330127
Disability74657155
Conduct disorder267884178
Special education needs1077717111,621
Persistent truancy16513
Permanent exclusion61118124205
Wellbeing improvement (WELLBYs gained between ages 3 and 17)
WELLBYs197,879629,453678,8581,656,902
Value (in millions of 2023 £s)2,5728,1838,82521,540
Scenario cost (Cost to increase income to quintile minimum, in millions of 2023 £s)
Cost estimate−2,134−9,717−20,240−52,020

  1. Number of births in the UK in 2021 was around 700,000. Costs and wellbeing values are discounted at 3.5% per year calculated at birth. Tables with baseline levels and unadjusted figures can be found in the online appendix. Income increase scenarios - Scenario 1 - Poorest to second poorest, Scenario 2 - Poorest two to middle, Scenario 3 - Poorest to richest, Scenario 4 - All to richest Negative values in the table are increases in cases or public costs. Poor GCSEs also includes N5 results for Scotland, Psychological distress is identified using the Kessler scale, Obesity is based on UK90 thresholds for sex and age, Regular smoking is more than 6 cigarettes a week.

Table A8
Simulated effect size of scenarios per child in birth cohort
OutcomeScenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4
Adverse outcomes (Reduction in probability by age 17)
Poor GCSEs0.020.050.050.11
Psychological distress0.00.010.010.03
Obesity0.00.010.010.04
Regular smoker0.00.020.020.03
Poor health0.010.010.020.03
Public cost savings (Cost savings between ages 3 and 17, in 2023 £s)
Total savings2811,4521,4453,283
By sourceAny hospitalisation−6−443181
Disability106581221
Conduct disorder36111120254
Special education needs1531,1021,0152,316
Persistent truancy29819
Permanent exclusion86169178292
Wellbeing improvement (WELLBYs gained between ages 3 and 17)
WELLBYs0.41.051.313.21
Value (in 2023 £s)5,25313,61817,05941,782

  1. Costs and wellbeing values are discounted at 3.5% per year calculated at birth. Tables with baseline levels and unadjusted figures can be found in the online appendix. Income increase scenarios - Scenario 1 - Poorest to second poorest, Scenario 2 - Poorest two to middle, Scenario 3 - Poorest to richest, Scenario 4 - All to richest Negative values in the table are increases in cases or public costs. Poor GCSEs also includes N5 results for Scotland, Psychological distress is identified using the Kessler scale, Obesity is based on UK90 thresholds for sex and age, Regular smoking is more than 6 cigarettes a week.

Table A9
Simulated effect size of scenarios per recipient in birth cohort
OutcomeScenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4
Adverse outcomes (Reduction in probability by age 17)
Poor GCSEs0.080.130.260.14
Psychological distress0.010.020.060.04
Obesity−0.010.020.070.06
Regular smoker0.030.050.080.04
Poor health0.030.040.080.04
Public cost savings (Cost savings between ages 3 and 17, in 2023 £s)
Total savings1,4823,7627,6184,128
By sourceAny hospitalisation−33−10229227
Disability53169429278
Conduct disorder192288633320
Special education needs8062,8545,3502,912
Persistent truancy8224224
Permanent exclusion455438936367
Wellbeing improvement (WELLBYs gained between ages 3 and 17)
WELLBYs2.132.716.924.04
Value (in 2023 £s)27,68235,27489,90352,537

  1. Costs and wellbeing values are discounted at 3.5% per year calculated at birth. Tables with baseline levels and unadjusted figures can be found in the online appendix. Income increase scenarios - Scenario 1 - Poorest to second poorest, Scenario 2 - Poorest two to middle, Scenario 3 - Poorest to richest, Scenario 4 - All to richest Negative values in the table are increases in cases or public costs. Poor GCSEs also includes N5 results for Scotland, Psychological distress is identified using the Kessler scale, Obesity is based on UK90 thresholds for sex and age, Regular smoking is more than 6 cigarettes a week.

Table A10
Effects of increasing income by $1000 (£676) in Cooper and Stewart (2021) compared to three LifeSim models
Cooper and Stewart (2021)LifeSim Childhood
PaperOutcomeEffectOutcomePreferred ModelExtra ConservativeUnadjusted
Blau (1999) (All families in US)
PIAT Maths0.01NFER Progress in maths0.020.010.02
PIAT Reading0.01BAS Word reading0.020.010.03
PPVT0.01BAS Naming vocabulary0.010.010.03
Votruba-Drzal (2006) (All families in US)
PIAT Maths0.02NFER Progress in maths0.020.010.02
PIAT Reading0.02BAS Word reading0.020.010.03
Fernald et al. (2008) (Poor households in Mexico)
PPVT0.21BAS Naming vocabulary0.030.020.05
Milligan and Stabile (2011) (Low education households in Canada)
PIAT Maths0.07NFER Progress in maths0.030.030.05
Hyperactivity0.07SDQ Hyperactivity0.00.00.0
Conduct disorder0.10SDQ Conduct problems0.030.020.05
Dahl and Lochner (2012) (Poor families in US)
Maths0.21NFER Progress in maths0.030.030.05
Reading0.21BAS Word reading0.030.030.05
Gennetian and Miller (2002) (Poor families in Minnesota)
BPI Internalising0.12SDQ Internalising0.030.020.05
BPI Externalising0.11SDQ Externalising0.020.010.04
Dearing et al. (2006) (Poor households in US)
CBCL Internalising0.02SDQ Internalising0.030.020.05
CBCL Externalising0.03SDQ Externalising0.010.010.03
Zachrisson and Dearing (2015) (All families in Norway)
CBCL Internalising0.02SDQ Internalising0.010.010.02

  1. Effect sizes are based on standard deviation increases in outcome for a $1000 increase in income. The most similar available test, based on concept measured and age at measurement, in the MCS is used for comparison with those presented in Cooper and Stewart (2021). The age range for the LifeSim estimates are based on the sweep age rather than actual age at time of testing. All MCS measures, except the SDQ scores, are age and ability adjusted measures that are standardised within sample. PIAT - Peabody individual achievement test, NFER - National foundation for educational research, PPVT - Peabody picture vocabulary test, BAS - British ability scales, SDQ - Strength and difficulties questionnaire, BPI - Basic personality inventory, and CBCL - Child behaviour checklist. Ages in MCS correspond to MCS sweeps and not age at observation (age 3 - sweep 2, age 5 - sweep 3 and so on until age 17 - sweep 7).

Table A11
Coefficients - marginal effects on life satisfaction (0-10)
Life satisfaction age 17
Intercept8.456
(0.114)		Mixed0.041
(0.085)
Poorest fifth-0.65
(0.058)		Indian0.172
(0.096)
Second poorest fifth-0.451
(0.048)		Pakistani or Bangladeshi0.204
(0.07)
Middle fifth-0.273
(0.042)		Black0.158
(0.092)
Second richest fifth-0.198
(0.039)		Other0.118
(0.132)
Wales-0.033
(0.065)		Smoked during pregnancy-0.198
(0.034)
Scotland0.014
(0.062)		Age of mother at birth0.004
(0.003)
Northern Ireland0.219
(0.071)		No qualifications-0.237
(0.07)
North East0
(0.08)		NVQ level 1-0.233
(0.072)
North West0.007
(0.058)		NVQ level 2-0.103
(0.057)
Yorkshire and the Humber-0.051
(0.065)		NVQ level 3-0.108
(0.064)
East Midlands-0.009
(0.067)		NVQ level 4-0.02
(0.053)
West Midlands-0.125
(0.059)		Disability in household-0.516
(0.082)
East of England-0.107
(0.057)		Single parent-0.056
(0.046)
South East-0.048
(0.052)
South West-0.044
(0.063)

  1. Life satisfaction is a linear transformation of SDQ emotional symptoms scale. The estimates presented are from an OLS regressions using the preferred specification on Life satisfaction on a 0 to 10 scale.

Table A12
Marginal effect on life satisfaction of a one unit change in log household income in early childhood
Dependent variableAge 17Age 14Age 11
Coef
(s.e.)		RatioCoef
(s.e.)		RatioCoef
(s.e.)		Ratio
Parent reported SDQ
emotional symptoms		0.39
(0.05)		10.40
(0.04)		10.34
(0.04)		1
Parent reported SDQ
internalising score		0.50
(0.05)		1.28
Self reported SDQ
emotional symptoms		0.32
(0.07)		0.82
Self reported SWEMWBS0.21
(0.04)		0.54
Self reported LS1–70.23
(0.04)		0.570.18
(0.04)		0.53

  1. Coefficients and standard errors are calculated using the confounder list from the preferred model. Ratio is the ratio of the coefficient of our main wellbeing to other available measures in the MCS.

Table A13
Effect of Scenario 1 on early childhood outcomes based on income at 9 months and incomes 9-months to age 5
OutcomeIncome
Ages 0 - 5		Income
at 9 months
Hospitalisation
Age 3		0.01
(0.02)		0.01
(0.02)
Hospitalisation
Age 5		0.01
(0.02)		0.01
(0.02)
Disability
Age 3		0.00
(0.02)		0.01
(0.02)
Disability
Age 5		0.00
(0.02)		0.01
(0.02)
Parent reported SDQ
emotional symptoms Age 3		-0.28
(0.10)		-0.23
(0.10)
Parent reported SDQ
emotional symptoms Age 5		-0.20
(0.14)		-0.09
(0.13)

  1. Coefficients and standard errors are calculated using the confounder list from the preferred model.

Data and code availability

The LifeSim Childhood model code is open-source, and distributed freely through GitHub (https://github.com/LifeSimUK/LifeSim_childhood). This study used secondary data from the Millennium Cohort Study (MCS) sweeps 1-7. MCS data are available to registered researchers from the UK Data Service (SN 2000031) under standard End User Licence (https://datacatalogue.ukdataservice.ac.uk/series/series/2000031?id=2000031#access-data). Due to the incorporation of MCS-derived variables, the LifeSim simulated individual-level outputs cannot be made publicly available. However, everything needed to replicate our results is publicly available, including the MCS source data, multiple imputation code, and simulation code.

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