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Simulating disease transmission dynamics at a multi-scale level

  1. Moshe B. Hoshen  Is a corresponding author
  2. Anthony H. Burton
  3. Themis J. V. Bowcock
  1. University of Liverpool, United Kingdom
  2. World Health Organization, Switzerland
Research note
Cite this article as: M. B. Hoshen, A. H. Burton, T. J. V. Bowcock; 2007; Simulating disease transmission dynamics at a multi-scale level; International Journal of Microsimulation; 1(1); 26-34. doi: 10.34196/ijm.00004
5 figures and 2 tables

Figures

Example of the grid structure of regions, towns and overlaps.
A typical time course for disease spread (origin = Midlands).
Time course for 20 runs, assuming 1% of adults commute daily and schools are kept open.
Spatial distribution of cases after 3, 19 and 25 days for a highly infectious disease, allowing for long distance transmission. The size of the dot represents the number of cases at the grid point.

Note: Disease outbreak was seeded randomly in three initial centres.

Changes in MPI usage efficiency in response to grid size and processor nodes.

Tables

Table 1
Alternative 24 × 24 grid configurations.
Total regions
(processors)
Shape of region Simulation Time
(seconds)
Towns along X-length Towns along Y-length
1 24 24 921
2 12 24 878
2 24 12 835
3 24 8 815
4 24 6 826
4 12 12 791
4 6 24 722
6 24 4 595
8 24 3 460
12 24 2 356
24 8 3 444
24 6 4 427
24 12 2 359
24 24 1 281
24 1 24 211
36 8 2 345
36 4 4 328
36 2 8 296
Table 2
Alternative 36 × 36 grid configurations.
Total regions
(processors)
Shape of region
Towns along X-length Towns along Y-length
4 18 18
9 12 12
36 1 36
36 3 12
36 2 18
27 4 12
18 6 12
12 9 12

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