1. Pensions and retirement
  2. Demography
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Micro simulations on the effects of ageing-related policy measures: The social affairs department of the Netherlands Ageing and Pensions Model

  1. Jan-Maarten van Sonsbeek  Is a corresponding author
  1. VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam
  2. Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment, Den Haag
Research article
Cite this article as: J. van Sonsbeek; 2011; Micro simulations on the effects of ageing-related policy measures: The social affairs department of the Netherlands Ageing and Pensions Model; International Journal of Microsimulation; 4(1); 72-99. doi: 10.34196/ijm.00046
8 figures and 9 tables

Figures

SADNAP model flow diagram.
Average wage and expected second-pillar pension by age.
State pension cost as % of GDP (including partner allowances) 2009–2080.
Changes in composition of pensioners population (2006-2050).
Projected rate of non-participation in the labour force non-participation rate by age.
The simulation process of the population forecast.
Composition of the simulated database from different data sources.
Composition of the 2005 population by age and participation category.

Tables

Table 1
Average life expectancies at 65 of the 2006–2045 pensioner cohorts.
Subgroup Average mortality age Δ Average
By income
 - 1st quintile 83.5 -2.5
 - 2nd quintile 84.5 -1.5
 - 3rd quintile 85.6 −0.4
 - 4th quintile 86.8 +0.8
 - 5th quintile 88.5 +2.5
By gender
 - Women 86.9 +0.9
 - Men 85.1 −0.9
By household status
 - Singles 84.4 −1.6
 - Cohabitants 86.7 +0.7
By origin
 - Natives 86.6 +0.6
 - Immigrants 84.0 −2.0
Total 86.0
Table 2
Option value parameters.
Parameter Mean value Distribution
 − κ (leisure preference) 2.0 U (1, 3)
 − ρ (time preference) 0.17 0
U(0, 0.05)
U(0.05, 0.1)
U(0.1, 0.2)
U(0.2, 1.0)
 − γ (risk aversion) 0.7 U(0.5, 0.9)
 − τ (expected wage decrease after age 60) 0.045 U(0, 0.09)
Table 3
Share of lifetime state pension income compared to share of state pension cohorts.
Subgroup Share of cohorts turning 65 Share of lifetime pension costs Ratio
By income
 - 1st quintile 19.4% 15.4% 0.79
 - 2nd quintile 19.8% 18.5% 0.93
 - 3rd quintile 20.0% 19.4% 0.97
 - 4th quintile 20.3% 21.8% 1.08
 - 5th quintile 20.5% 24.9% 1.21
By gender
 - Women 49.4% 52.6% 1.06
 - Men 50.6% 47.4% 0.94
By household status
 - Singles 30.6% 34.0% 1.11
 - Cohabitants 69.4% 66.0% 0.95
By origin
 - Natives 73.5% 82.4% 1.12
 - Immigrants 26.5% 17.6% 0.66
Table 4
Characteristics of retirees by retirement age (birth cohorts 1946–1970).
Retirement age Share of population retiring Time preference Leisure preference Risk aversion Wage decrease Share of disability
≤ 59 0.427
60 0.029 0.26 2.15 0.70 0.046 0.14
61 0.025 0.21 2.07 0.70 0.046 0.16
62 0.027 0.20 2.04 0.70 0.046 0.17
63 0.035 0.21 2.04 0.70 0.047 0.14
64 0.036 0.21 2.07 0.70 0.048 0.18
65 0.217 0.20 2.05 0.69 0.046 0.03
66 0.043 0.14 1.97 0.70 0.046 0.14
67 0.042 0.13 1.97 0.71 0.046 0.15
68 0.040 0.12 1.94 0.71 0.045 0.14
69 0.080 0.08 1.81 0.73 0.039 0.06
Table 5
Overview of key SADNAP results compared to other models.
Indicator Year SADNAP estimate Comparable estimate By
Grey pressure 2040 49% 49% CBS
State pension expenses 2040 9.6% 8.8% CPB based on 2004 population projection, would be 9.9% based on 2008 population projection
Number of state pensions 2024 4.132 mln 4.125 mln SVB 2009–2024 projection
Expected replacement rate when retiring All 0.73 0.73 0.64 CBS Euwals, de Mooij, van Vuuren (2009)
Gini coefficient 2040 0.29 0.23 Knoef et al. on household income (SADNAP estimate on individual income)
Retirement age 2007 61.9 61.7 Adviescommissie Arbeidparticipatie (2008)
Retirement age increase (compared to generous ERS) 2015 2.5 4 / 0 2 – 2.5 De Vos and Kapteyn for men / women Euwals, de Mooij, van Vuuren (2009)
Table 6
Some characteristics of the two main data sources on state pensions.
SVB file 2006 (65+) CBS entitlement file 2005 (15-64)
Number % Number %
Gender
 - Male 1,130,506 43.5 5,563,649 50.5
 - Female 1,469,568 56.5 5,458,248 49.5
Origin
 - Native6 9,656,948 87.6
 - Immigrant (1st gen) 1,364,949 12.4
Household status
 - Single 2,667,713 24.2
 - Cohabiting 8,337,017 75.8
State pension entitlement
 - Complete 2,200,342 84.6 9,443,153 85.7
 - Reduced 399,802 15.4 1,572,768 14.3
Country of residence
 - Netherlands 2,364,891 91.0
 - Abroad 235,183 9.0
Total 2,600,074 100.0 11,021,897 100.0
Table 7
Some characteristics of the main data source on company pensions.
State pension entitlements Private pension entitlements
Number % Number %
Gender
 - Male 5,563,649 50.5 3,151,280 54.2
 - Female 5,458,248 49.5 2,664,918 45.8
Origin
 - Native 9,656,948 87.6 5,288,526 90.9
 - Immigrant (1st gen) 1,364,949 12.4 527,672 9.1
Household status
 - Single 2,667,713 24.2 1,325,328 22.8
 - Cohabiting 8,337,017 75.8 4,484,873 77.2
State pension entitlement
 - Complete 9,443,153 85.7 5,074,905 87.3
 - Reduced 1,572,768 14.3 739,206 12.7
Participation status
 - Study 1,207,782 11.0 128,824 2.2
 - Work 6,916,620 62.9 4,474,776 76.9
 - Benefit 1,320,852 12.0 644,887 11.1
 - None 1,217,069 11.1 318,848 5.5
 - (Early) retired 342,141 3.1 246,483 4.2
Total 11,021,897 100.0 5,816,198 100.0
Table 8
Expected private pension by main subgroups.
Wage (mean) Expected private pension (mean) Expected replacement rate (median)
Age-category
 - 15-19 € 12,546 € 3,740 1.283
 - 20-24 € 20,605 € 7,005 0.857
 - 25-29 € 25,580 € 9,128 0.779
 - 30-34 € 28,623 € 10,445 0.754
 - 35-39 € 30,294 € 11,323 0.747
 - 40-44 € 31,855 € 12,194 0.729
 - 45-49 € 33,582 € 13,020 0.702
 - 50-54 € 34,911 € 13,668 0.675
 - 55-59 € 36,016 € 12,460 0.638
 - 60-64 € 36,594 € 10,335 0.575
Gender
 - Male € 37,892 € 13,965 0.644
 - Female € 21,984 € 8,275 0.839
Origin
 - Native € 31,008 € 11,714 0.743
 - Immigrant € 27,282 € 7,791 0.607
Household status
 - Single € 28,989 € 9,952 0.761
 - Cohabiting € 31,147 € 11,767 0.725
State pension entitlement
 - Complete € 30,536 € 11,628 0.751
 - Reduced € 32,062 € 9,484 0.576
All € 30,703 € 11,394 0.732
Table 9
presents an overview of the macro data sources used.
Age Gender Ethnicity Household status Participatio n status Income
Birth cohorts n/a E E n/a n/a n/a
Immigrant cohorts E E E - - -
Mortality rates E E I I - I
Emigration rates E E E - - -
Cohabiting rates E E - n/a - -
Participation rates E E - - n/a -
Benefit rates E E - - E -

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