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Microsimulation of indirect taxes

  1. André Decoster
  2. Jason Loughrey
  3. Cathal O'Donoghue
  4. Dirk Verwerft
  1. University of Leuven, Belgium
  2. Rural Economy Research Centre, Teagasc, Ireland
Research article
Cite this article as: A. Decoster, J. Loughrey, C. O'Donoghue, D. Verwerft; 2011; Microsimulation of indirect taxes; International Journal of Microsimulation; 4(2); 41-56. doi: 10.34196/ijm.00052
3 figures and 8 tables

Figures

Share of different components of government revenue OECD 1955–2005.
Share of different components of government revenue – oecd 2005.
QQ-plot for disposable income quantiles in budget dataset (dib) versus quantiles in income dataset (dii), Belgium (Euros per year).

Tables

Table 1
Expenditure datasets and income datasets for the four countries.
Country budget survey # of households income survey # of households policy year indirect taxes
BE Household Budget Survey 2003 3,550 EU-SILC 2004 5,275 2003
HU Household Budget Survey 2005 8,710 EU-SILC 2005 6,924 2005
IE Household Budget Survey 1999 7,644 Living In Ireland 2000 3,644 2001
UK Family Expenditures Survey 2003/2004 7,048 Family Resources Survey 2003/2004 28,768 2003
Table 2
VAT-structure and expenditure shares per vat-category; excise rates and shares for the 3 most important excise good categories.
Country and policy year VAT Excise
standar d rate 18–25% not taxed or exempte d reduced rate 1 4–6% reduced rate 2 8–15% Alcohol Tobacco Private transpor t
BE-2003 Rates 21 0 6 12 43.9 162.9 34.7
Shares 41.9 37.9 19.8 0.4 1.7 1.3 8.9
HU-2005 Rates 25 0 5 15 64.3 273.0 79.0
Shares 42.7 8.1 4.1 45.1 0.6 2.6 4.1
IE-2001 Rates 20 0 - 12.5 26.6 300.0 75.4
Shares 36.2 42.0 - 21.8 4.5 3.4 5.3
UK-2003 Rates 17.5 0 5 - 89.7 414.7 58.8
shares 57.7 36.3 6.1 - 1.9 2.2 8.0
Table 3
Average expenditures per consumption category in budget and EUROMOD dataset.
Commodity expenditures in €, BE expenditures in €, HU expenditures in €, IE expenditures in GBP, UK
Budget Survey EUROMOD Budget Survey EUROMOD Budget Survey EUROMOD Budget Survey EUROMOD
food, non-alcoholic beverages 4,183 4,050 1,813 1,675 4,620 8,215 2,617 2,121
alcoholic beverages 466 400 82 36 1,663 1,513 325 296
tobacco 275 279 191 170 644 1,098 280 321
clothing and footwear 1,395 1,284 442 380 1,848 1,493 1,183 916
home fuels and electricity 1,321 1,284 831 844 1,128 1,987 623 590
rents 1,418 1,560 59 62 681 913 691 543
household services 1,268 1,157 666 685 1,230 1,365 999 818
health 1,608 1,507 245 323 582 391 174 144
private transport 2,660 2,214 590 325 1,394 1,808 1,814 1,413
public transport 161 158 185 148 513 534 292 242
communication 803 758 460 437 739 1,223 551 457
recreation and culture 2,058 1,752 390 384 1,931 2,171 1,760 1,472
education 207 141 76 76 405 368 529 248
restaurants and hotels 2344 1,972 246 153 1,695 1,652 2,105 1,746
other goods and services 2,491 2,175 471 466 4,869 3,917 1,408 1,210
Durables 2,671 2,372 656 658 5,306 3,384 3,405 3,212
All 25,330 23,062 7,645 7,056 29,248 32,032 18,754 15,748
Table 4
Revenue effects of the simulation.
BE HU IE UK
baseline simulation baseline simulation baseline simulation baseline simulation
SIC employee 17,490 -3,900 2,777 -693 168,875 -33,902 42,283 -9,713
PIT 35,500 + 1,763 4,608 +0 1136,416 +0 164,813 +0
Indirect tax 14,400 + 2,309 4,300 + 731 443,139 34,791 71,717 + 10,655
VAT rate 21% 26% 25% 34% 20% 23.5% 17.5% 21.5%
Table 5
Decomposition of welfare change into total expenditure effect and price change – by decile.
Decile equiv. non durable expend. BE (EUR) HU (EUR) IR (EUR) UK (EUR)
Change nondur. exp. Price effect WG Change nondur. exp. Price effect WG Change nondur. Exp. Price effect WG Change nondur. Exp. Price effect WG
1 43 −193 −150 22 −70 −47 0 −59 −58 9 −50 −42
2 79 −262 −183 34 −90 −56 38 −152 −114 39 −99 −60
3 159 −308 −149 57 −105 −48 108 −202 −94 90 −134 −44
4 237 −366 −129 82 −124 −41 213 −277 −64 134 −168 −34
5 389 −417 −28 112 −139 −27 321 −313 8 196 −200 −4
6 482 −455 26 141 −157 −16 364 −328 36 278 −233 45
7 614 −509 105 192 −183 9 390 −338 52 360 −269 91
8 735 −557 178 231 −205 26 483 −403 80 473 −316 158
9 837 −607 230 310 −237 73 523 −399 124 620 −376 245
10 1162 −858 305 527 −339 188 722 −531 191 764 −570 194
Mean 473 −453 20 171 −165 6 316 −300 16 296 −241 55
Table 6
Decomposition of welfare change into total expenditure effect and price change – by group.
group BE (EUR) HU (EUR) IE (EUR) UK(GBP)
Change nondur. exp. Price effect WG Change nondur. exp. Price effect WG Change nondur. exp. Price effect WG Change nondur. Exp. Price effect WG
poor 55 −367 −312 30 −90 −60 4 −22 −18 17 −177 −160
non poor 554 −470 84 197 −178 18 329 305 24 362 −257 106
on income support 0 −277 −277 0 −106 −106 0 −24 −24 0 −232 −232
retired 112 −289 −177 117 −120 −3 22 −46 24 35 −164 −130
un−employed 54 −323 −269 35 −107 −72 2 −7 −5 16 −148 −133
mean 473 −453 20 171 −165 6 316 −300 16 296 −241 55
Table 7
Savings rate per decile.
Deciles BE HU IE UK
1 −63.4 −50.4 −109.9 −37.1
2 −17.5 −14.3 −67.3 1.7
3 −8.1 −3.9 −38.8 10.4
4 −2.1 1.6 −25.0 16.3
5 3.8 6.4 −22.3 21.3
6 9.3 10.1 −11.2 24.2
7 13.3 12.1 −2.9 28.6
8 18.0 14.4 4.5 32.5
9 22.7 17.6 15.4 37.8
10 33.3 27.1 38.5 50.4
Table 8
Suits and Reynolds-Smolensky index for personal income and indirect taxes.
Country πSPIT πSIND πSTOT πRSPIT πRSIND πRSTOT
Belgium 0.219 −0.079 0.113 0.057 −0.010 0.046
Greece 0.492 −0.101 0.094 0.035 −0.024 0.01
Hungary 0.424 −0.086 0.144 0.056 −0.015 0.041
Ireland 0.140 −0.143 0.044 0.043 −0.019 0.024
UK 0.200 −0.120 0.092 0.038 −0.011 0.026
  1. Note: πSY denotes the Suits index for tax component Y, πRSY the Reynolds-Smolensky index; the superscript PIT refers to Personal Income Taxes, IND to Indirect Taxation and TOT to Personal Income Taxes and Indirect taxation.

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