1. Methodology
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Spot on or way off? Validating results of the AVID microsimulation model retrospectively

  1. Dina Frommert  Is a corresponding author
  1. Deutsche Rentenversicherung Bund, Germany
Research article
Volume 8(1) Spring 2015
Cite this article as: D. Frommert; 2015; Spot on or way off? Validating results of the AVID microsimulation model retrospectively; International Journal of Microsimulation; 8(1); 3-32. doi: 10.34196/ijm.00110
6 figures and 6 tables

Figures

Figure 1
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Development of SES states, total of the population.

Source: AVID 2005 and IAV 2009, own calculations.

Figure 2
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Development of SES states, West German men.

Source: AVID 2005 and IAV 2009, own calculations.

Figure 3
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Development of SES states, West German women.

Source: AVID 2005 and IAV 2009, own calculations.

Figure 4
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Development of SES states, East German men.

Source: AVID 2005 and IAV 2009, own calculations.

Figure 5
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Development of SES states, East German women.

Source: AVID 2005 and IAV 2009, own calculations.

Figure 6
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Transversal entropies.

Source: AVID 2005 and IAV 2009, own calculations.

Tables

Table 1
Indicators.
  Level Orientation Content Structure
Step 1 Aggregate Cross-sectional States per month Transversal entropy
Step 2 Individual Longitudinal Cumulative duration Complexity index
Step 3 Individual Longitudinal Extreme values Extreme values

  1. Source: Own description.

Table 2
Comparison groups.
  Start date End date Birth cohorts n
Projection 01/2002 06/2009 1950–1961 4,883
Empirical data 01/2002 06/2009 1950–1961 4,883
Base period 01/1992 06/1999 1942–1951 4,951

  1. Source: Own description.

Table 3
Population of comparison groups.
Projection / Empirical data Base period
Frequency Percent Frequency Percent
Men West Germany 1,761 36.1 2,117 42.8
Women West Germany 2,170 44.4 1,692 34.2
Men East Germany 427 8.7 609 12.3
Women East Germany 525 10.8 533 10.8
TOTAL 4,883 100.0 4,951 100.0

  1. Source: AVID 2005 and IAV 2009, own calculations.

Table 4
Cumulative duration of states (in months).
Projection Empirical data Base period
Mean SD Mean SD Mean SD
Men West Employment – Social insurance 56.8 40.0 57.4 41.3 55.1 40.9
Employment – Other 23.4 37.8 23.6 38.7 25.2 39.3
Unemployment 4.3 14.1 3.1 13.2 4.2 13.6
Family work 0.2 4.2 0.1 2.4 0.2 3.6
Other states 5.2 17.0 5.7 19.8 5.3 17.0
Women West Employment – Social insurance 48.3 38.1 46.6 42.6 44.7 41.2
Employment – Other 7.7 23.9 9.2 26.4 7.9 24.6
Unemployment 4.6 12.7 2.0 9.3 3.9 12.7
Family work 14.6 27.9 14.0 30.8 21.8 35.9
Other states 14.7 26.6 18.2 33.3 11.7 25.9
Men East Employment – Social insurance 61.1 35.5 55.9 39.3 63.7 29.5
Employment – Other 6.1 20.8 9.1 25.7 5.7 19.5
Unemployment 14.0 22.2 15.8 29.2 15.3 21.1
Family work 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.5 0.1 1.8
Other states 8.7 19.9 9.1 24.0 5.2 15.0
Women East Employment – Social insurance 55.8 32.6 54.5 39.6 57.4 31.9
Employment – Other 4.8 17.6 5.6 20.8 3.0 13.3
Unemployment 17.1 24.6 17.6 30.7 20.4 25.1
Family work 1.8 9.0 2.4 13.4 1.8 11.2
Other states 10.6 21.7 10.0 24.4 7.3 19.7

  1. Source: AVID 2005 and IAV 2009, own calculations.

Table 5
Complexity index.
Projection Empirical data Base period
Men West Mean 0.02 0.01 0.03
SD 0.04 0.03 0.05
Maximum 0.27 0.26 0.35
% Minimum 0 66.6 84.3 70.7
Women West Mean 0.05 0.02 0.03
SD 0.05 0.04 0.06
Maximum 0.27 0.26 0.37
% Minimum 0 43.2 77.5 62.3
Men East Mean 0.09 0.03 0.08
SD 0.12 0.06 0.08
Maximum 0.46 0.25 0.32
% Minimum 0 51.3 67.4 33.8
Women East Mean 0.07 0.03 0.08
SD 0.07 0.05 0.08
Maximum 0.30 0.24 0.30
% Minimum 0 29.7 66.3 33.6

  1. Source: AVID 2005 and IAV 2009, own calculations.

Table 6
Distribution of cumulative duration of states (in %).
Months Projection Empirical data Base period
0 1–89 90 0 1–89 90 0 1–89 90
Men West Employment – Social insurance 26.6 30.2 43.2 31.4 13.0 55.6 31.1 24.9 44.0
Employment – Other 69.6 9.7 20.7 71.0 5.3 23.7 68.8 7.1 24.1
Unemployment 82.3 17.4 (0.3) 90.2 8.7 1.1 83.6 15.9 0.5
Family work 99.4 (0.4) (0.2) 99.6 (0.4) - 99.7 (0.2) (0.1)
Other states 79.0 18.8 2.2 88.5 7.5 4.0 78.3 19.5 2.2
Women West Employment – Social insurance 27.4 47.4 25.2 41.1 16.2 42.8 39.1 29.0 31.9
Employment – Other 88.9 4.8 6.3 88.0 3.4 8.6 89.7 3.3 7.0
Unemployment 76.6 23.2 (0.2) 91.6 8.0 (0.4) 84.4 15.3 (0.3)
Family work 66.7 27.2 6.1 79.6 8.2 12.2 66.8 16.4 16.8
Other states 61.3 33.3 5.4 71.3 15.2 13.5 69.6 24.2 6.2
Men East Employment – Social insurance 8.9 47.1 44.0 25.8 29.3 45.0 5.4 65.0 29.6
Employment – Other 88.5 7.0 4.4 87.4 4.4 8.2 88.8 7.9 3.3
Unemployment 55.5 44.5 - 64.9 26.5 8.7 43.0 57.0 -
Family work 100.0 - - 99.5 (0.5) - 99.7 (0.3) -
Other states 67.0 30.2 2.8 80.6 13.8 5.6 67.7 31.2 (1.1)
Women East Employment – Social insurance 9.5 68.6 21.9 26.5 28.6 45.0 8.4 63.4 28.1
Employment – Other 88.8 8.4 2.9 91.8 3.0 5.1 92.7 6.6 (0.8)
Unemployment 47.0 51.8 (1.1) 65.0 26.1 9.0 40.7 58.2 (1.1)
Family work 93.9 5.9 (0.2) 96.2 2.3 (1.5) 95.7 3.4 (0.9)
Other states 53.1 43.2 3.6 77.7 16.6 5.7 69.0 28.3 2.6

  1. Source: AVID 2005 and IAV 2009, own calculations, ( ) n < 10, – n = 0.

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