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Public investment in irrigation and training, growth and poverty reduction in Ethiopia

  1. Lulit M Beyene  Is a corresponding author
  2. Ermias Engida  Is a corresponding author
  1. IESD Research, Ethiopia
  2. Ethiopian Development Research Institute, Ethiopia
Research article
Volume 9(1) Spring 2016
Cite this article as: L. M Beyene, E. Engida; 2016; Public investment in irrigation and training, growth and poverty reduction in Ethiopia; International Journal of Microsimulation; 9(1); 86-108. doi: 10.34196/ijm.00129
2 figures and 6 tables

Figures

Figure 1
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Nested structure of value added.
Figure 2
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Changes in food availability index: FAindex and FAindex1 (% change from reference scenario).

Tables

Table 1
Summary of scenarios.
Scenarios Time frame
Simulation 1 10% increase in public investment for farmer training 2nd period
11.8% increase in skilled agricultural labor supply 3rd period
1.5% improvement in TFP in irrigated agriculture crop sectors 3rd period
Simulation 2 10% increase in public investment in irrigation uniformly across all agricultural sub-sectors 2nd period
10.5% increase in irrigated land 3rd period
2% improvement in TFP in irrigated agriculture crop sectors 3rd period
Simulation 3 Simulation 1 + Simulation 2 for public investment 2nd period
3.5% improvement in TFP in irrigated agriculture crop sectors 3rd period
Table 2
Macroeconomic results (% change from reference scenario).
Investment in training Investment in irrigation Investment in irrigation + training
2014–15 2019–20 2014–15 2019–20 2014–15 2019–20
GDP Agriculture 0.16 0.16 0.21 0.21 0.41 0.41
Irrigated agriculture 16.63 16.62 3.91 3.90 20.91 20.89
Rain-fed agriculture −2.78 −2.79 −0.43 −0.43 −3.22 −3.24
Manufacturing −0.17 −0.48 −0.03 −0.06 −0.21 −0.55
Services 0.03 0.03 −0.01 −0.03 0.02 0.00
TOTAL 0.07 0.04 0.09 0.07 0.17 0.13
Investment Private −1.95 −2.26 −0.17 −0.20 −2.13 −2.46
Public 3.69 3.69 0.32 0.32 4.01 4.01
TOTAL −0.03 −0.07 0.01 0.00 −0.02 −0.06
Agriculture −0.37 −0.44 −0.28 −0.29 −0.71 −0.79
Consumer Agricultural food crops −0.62 −0.70 −0.32 −0.32 −0.99 −1.07
Price Manufacturing 0.13 0.19 −0.02 −0.01 0.09 0.17
Index Services 0.21 0.50 0.07 0.09 0.29 0.60
TOTAL −0.08 −0.03 −0.12 −0.11 −0.23 −0.17
Exports Agriculture 0.30 0.42 0.79 0.31 0.42 0.79
Industry −0.23 −0.01 −0.23 −0.50 −0.04 −0.54
Services −0.28 −0.05 −0.34 −0.68 −0.09 −0.77
TOTAL −0.08 0.11 0.05 −0.33 0.09 −0.22
Imports Agriculture −0.46 −0.10 −0.58 −0.60 −0.11 −0.73
Industry −0.06 0.00 −0.07 −0.18 −0.01 −0.19
Services 0.20 0.09 0.30 0.41 0.11 0.53
TOTAL −0.03 0.01 −0.02 −0.09 0.01 −0.08
Output Agriculture 0.17 0.17 0.21 0.21 0.42 0.42
Irrigated agriculture 16.98 16.96 3.68 3.68 21.01 20.99
Rain-fed agriculture −2.82 −2.84 −0.38 −0.39 −3.22 −3.24
Manufacturing −0.18 −0.48 −0.03 −0.06 −0.21 −0.55
Services 0.02 0.02 −0.01 −0.03 0.01 −0.01
TOTAL 0.03 −0.03 0.07 0.05 0.11 0.03
Table 3
Changes in agricultural factors income in real terms ((% change from reference scenario).
Investment in training Investment in irrigation Investment in irrigation + training
2014–15 2019–20 2014–15 2019–20 2014–15 2019–20
Skilled agricultural labor 11.78 11.59 −8.67 −8.51 11.72 11.53
Unskilled agricultural labor −2.00 −2.16 1.60 1.75 −2.03 −2.19
Total agricultural labor 0.38 0.22 −0.38 −0.22 0.39 0.23
Irrigated land 8.80 8.58 1.11 1.06 8.28 8.06
Non-irrigated land −3.49 −3.68 2.78 2.98 −3.57 −3.76
Livestock 0.00 −0.06 0.12 0.17 0.03 −0.02
Total agricultural capital −1.51 −1.65 1.67 1.79 −1.50 −1.64
Total agricultural factors −0.05 −0.23 0.08 0.25 −0.04 −0.22
Table 4
Changes in FGT indices (% change from reference scenario).
2014–15 2019–20
Investment in training Investment in irrigation Investment in irrigation + training Investment in training Investment in irrigation Investment in irrigation + training
Poverty incidence
National −0.47 −0.06 −0.75 −0.20 −0.06 −0.46
Rural −0.51 −0.05 −0.82 −0.22 0.00 −0.46
Urban −0.20 −0.14 −0.38 −0.07 −0.41 −0.43
Poverty gap
National −0.58 −0.15 −0.78 −0.27 −0.14 −0.46
Rural −0.63 −0.10 −0.77 −0.30 −0.08 −0.43
Urban −0.28 −0.44 −0.82 −0.04 −0.51 −0.65
Poverty severity
National −0.63 −0.16 −0.84 −0.28 −0.14 −0.48
Rural −0.68 −0.10 −0.82 −0.32 −0.08 −0.44
Urban −0.34 −0.52 −0.96 −0.05 −0.56 −0.72
Table 5
Changes in poverty incidence: national rural and urban (cumulative % change from reference scenario in 2010–11).
2014–15 2019–20
Investment in training Investment in irrigation Investment in irrigation + training Investment in training Investment in irrigation Investment in irrigation + training
National −1.50 −0.21 −2.42 −0.24 −0.07 −0.55
Rural −1.50 −0.21 −2.42 −0.24 −0.07 −0.55
Urban −0.67 −0.46 −1.25 −0.08 −0.50 −0.52
Table 6
Changes in the number of poor (cumulative % change from reference scenario in 2010–11).
BAU reference scenario Investment in training Investment in irrigation Investment in irrigation + training
Total number of poor 2014/15 −3,477,899.67 −3,566,496 −3,490,060 −3,620,623
Total number of poor 2019/20 −7,058,304.39 −7,089,129 −7,067,681 −7,128,995
Total number of poor since policy implementation −654,067 −185,948 −900,702

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