
Estimating and simulating with a random utility random opportunity model of job choice. Presentation and application to Belgium
- Article
- Figures and data
- Jump to
Figures
Tables
Descriptive statistics for the estimation sample.
Singles | Couples | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Description | Female | Male | Female | Male |
Age (years) | 41.1 | 39.93 | 38.08 | 40.22 |
% hh having 0–3 year old children | 5.78% | 0.45% | 18.67% | |
% hh having 4–6 year old children | 9.46% | 0.89% | 17.16% | |
% hh having 7–9 year old children | 10.16% | 1.78% | 18.19% | |
Education: | ||||
Lowly educated | 22.8% | 24.5% | 16.8% | 19.8% |
Secondary education | 34.6% | 41.9% | 38.5% | 39.0% |
Highly educated | 42.6% | 33.6% | 44.7% | 41.2% |
Residence: | ||||
Brussels | 19.8% | 21.2% | 9.3% | |
Flanders | 44.1% | 45.2% | 58.5% | |
Wallonia | 36.1% | 33.6% | 32.3% | |
Participation rate (%) | 68.12 | 78.84 | 79.40 | 93.20 |
Hours worked/week: | ||||
Conditional on working | 35.88 | 39.69 | 32.50 | 40.84 |
Unconditional | 24.45 | 31.29 | 25.81 | 38.06 |
Hourly wage (euro) | 14.91 | 15.20 | 14.73 | 16.25 |
Disposable income (€ /month) | 1567 | 1588 | 3143 | |
Number of observations | 571 | 449 | 1457 |
-
Source: Own Calculations, eu-silc 2007.
Type specific unemployment rates (%).
Male | Female | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Education level | Education level | |||||
Age group | Low | Middle | High | Low | Middle | High |
15 to 24 years | 26.4 | 14.0 | 12.3 | 33.6 | 22.1 | 11.0 |
25 to 29 years | 19.0 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 29.7 | 13.1 | 4.8 |
30 to 34 years | 18.0 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 23.5 | 9.3 | 3.3 |
35 to 39 years | 11.6 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 21.2 | 6.9 | 3.2 |
40 to 44 years | 9.5 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 12.2 | 6.2 | 3.0 |
45 to 49 years | 7.4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 |
50 to 54 years | 7.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 10.1 | 7.0 | 3.5 |
55 to 64 years | 4.7 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 5.3a |
-
a
The exact figure is lacking. The average across all education levels for that age class is taken.
-
Source: Eurostat unemployment rates by sex, age and educational attainment level (%), Belgium 2007, http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=lfsa_urgaed&lang=en, downloaded in October 2013.
Model specification.
Preferences | Opportunities | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
xV | xopp | xh | xw | |
variable | job offers | hours | wages | |
Regional dummiesa | yes | yes | no | no |
Education dummiesb | yes | yes | no | yes |
Age | yes | no | no | no |
Group specific unemployment rate | no | yes | no | no |
Number of children | yes | no | no | no |
Gender | yes | yes | yes | yes |
Potential experience | no | no | no | yes |
-
a
Brussels, Flanders, Wallonia.
-
b
Low, Middle, High.
Aggregate wage elasticity of labour supply.
Shift of female wage distribution | Shift of male wage distribution | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Couple | Single | Couple | Single | |||
Female | Male | Female | Male | Female | Male | |
Total elasticity | 0.6445 | -0.1734 | 0.6877 | -0.2014 | 0.3304 | 0.4569 |
Intensive margin | 0.2162 | -0.2222 | 0.1257 | -0.2584 | 0.1365 | 0.0944 |
Part in | 3.157% | 0.480% | 3.327% | 0.549% | 1.716% | 2.895% |
Part out | 0.000% | 1.647% | 0.000% | 1.579% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
Education level distribution by age and sex.
Education level | Low | Middle | High | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scenario | baseline | counterfactual | baseline | counterfactual | baseline | counterfactual |
Age | males | |||||
15 – 25 | 21.20% | 20.10% | 40.15% | 39.90% | 38.65% | 39.99% |
26 – 30 | 27.42% | 19.84% | 41.27% | 40.00% | 31.31% | 40.16% |
31 – 35 | 27.27% | 19.44% | 40.41% | 40.13% | 32.32% | 40.43% |
36 – 40 | 27.66% | 20.47% | 40.22% | 39.75% | 32.11% | 39.78% |
41 – 45 | 26.87% | 19.80% | 39.22% | 40.24% | 33.92% | 39.96% |
46 – 50 | 26.62% | 20.33% | 39.68% | 39.97% | 33.71% | 39.70% |
51 – 55 | 26.12% | 20.50% | 38.15% | 39.84% | 35.73% | 39.67% |
56 – 60 | 25.35% | 20.15% | 38.79% | 39.95% | 35.86% | 39.90% |
61 – 65 | 24.15% | 19.96% | 38.66% | 39.70% | 37.18% | 40.33% |
all | 27.27% | 20.90% | 41.54% | 41.42% | 31.19% | 37.68% |
females | ||||||
15 – 25 | 20.36% | 20.21% | 40.23% | 40.12% | 39.41% | 39.68% |
26 – 30 | 20.22% | 19.51% | 39.77% | 40.38% | 40.01% | 40.11% |
31 – 35 | 18.71% | 20.26% | 38.09% | 40.12% | 43.20% | 39.62% |
36 – 40 | 19.77% | 19.31% | 38.35% | 39.69% | 41.89% | 41.00% |
41 – 45 | 19.61% | 20.14% | 38.03% | 39.68% | 42.36% | 40.19% |
46 – 50 | 19.35% | 20.46% | 38.27% | 39.58% | 42.38% | 39.96% |
51 – 55 | 19.14% | 20.12% | 38.03% | 38.80% | 42.83% | 41.08% |
56 – 60 | 20.03% | 19.33% | 38.73% | 40.48% | 41.24% | 40.19% |
61 – 65 | 19.46% | 20.11% | 39.01% | 39.80% | 41.53% | 40.09% |
all | 20.52% | 20.79% | 40.26% | 41.17% | 39.22% | 38.04% |
-
Source: midas implemented scenarios for baseline coinciding with 2007 and counterfactual aiming at a catch-up of female’s higher education level than males’ in the baseline, by 2050.
Participation and mean labour time by age class in baseline and counterfactual.
Age | 15 – 25 | 26 – 30 | 31 – 35 | 36 – 40 | 41 – 45 | 46 – 50 | 51 – 55 | 56 – 60 | 61 – 65 | all |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Couples: males | ||||||||||
n obs | 68 | 182 | 247 | 290 | 243 | 132 | 148 | 90 | 16 | 1457 |
part baseline | 89.7% | 90.1% | 88.7% | 94.1% | 92.2% | 94.8% | 93.2% | 74.4% | 87.5% | 90.9% |
part counterf. | 89.7% | 92.3% | 89.1% | 94.5% | 93.4% | 96.0% | 93.2% | 80.0% | 87.5% | 92.0% |
h baseline | 33.4 | 34.3 | 35.9 | 38.8 | 37.2 | 38.3 | 37.4 | 28.2 | 35.8 | 36.4 |
h counterf. | 33.4 | 35.1 | 36.2 | 39.0 | 37.6 | 38.6 | 37.2 | 30.2 | 35.8 | 36.7 |
Couples: females | ||||||||||
n obs | 124 | 241 | 264 | 260 | 230 | 172 | 99 | 58 | 9 | 1457 |
part baseline | 74.2% | 78.8% | 73.5% | 78.8% | 82.2% | 80.8% | 73.7% | 72.4% | 55.6% | 77.5% |
part counterf. | 73.4% | 77.2% | 73.5% | 78.1% | 81.3% | 80.2% | 75.8% | 69.0% | 55.6% | 76.8% |
h baseline | 24.3 | 25.4 | 23.2 | 24.7 | 26.0 | 24.9 | 20.9 | 22.7 | 18.1 | 24.4 |
h counterf. | 24.2 | 24.7 | 23.0 | 24.4 | 25.6 | 24.3 | 21.6 | 22.1 | 18.1 | 24.0 |
Singles: females | ||||||||||
n obs | 43 | 59 | 83 | 97 | 89 | 82 | 55 | 51 | 12 | 571 |
part baseline | 58.1% | 69.5% | 69.9% | 66.0% | 65.2% | 79.3% | 80.0% | 70.6% | 50.0% | 69.5% |
part counterf. | 58.1% | 69.5% | 68.7% | 66.0% | 65.2% | 78.0% | 80.0% | 70.6% | 50.0% | 69.2% |
h baseline | 18.4 | 23.6 | 27.1 | 23.6 | 21.9 | 27.1 | 24.8 | 21.8 | 14.3 | 23.7 |
h counterf. | 18.4 | 23.6 | 26.6 | 23.6 | 21.9 | 26.8 | 24.8 | 21.8 | 14.3 | 23.6 |
Singles: males | ||||||||||
n obs | 46 | 60 | 67 | 68 | 54 | 65 | 46 | 33 | 10 | 449 |
part baseline | 80.4% | 88.3% | 91.0% | 77.9% | 85.2% | 87.7% | 67.4% | 72.7% | 50.0% | 80.6% |
part counterf. | 80.4% | 83.3% | 92.5% | 85.3% | 87.0% | 87.7% | 69.6% | 72.7% | 60.0% | 83.1% |
h baseline | 31.5 | 30.3 | 34.6 | 30.0 | 32.8 | 33.2 | 23.3 | 25.2 | 18.5 | 30.4 |
h counterf. | 31.5 | 32.1 | 35.1 | 34.2 | 33.6 | 33.3 | 24.7 | 25.2 | 22.1 | 31.7 |
Impact of education through preferences and opportunities.
Couple | Single | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Males | Females | Males | Females | |
n obs | 1457 | 1457 | 449 | 571 |
part base | 90.87% | 77.48% | 80.62% | 69.53% |
part alt pref | 90.94% | 77.62% | 81.51% | 69.53% |
part alt opp | 91.90% | 76.94% | 82.85% | 69.35% |
part counterf. | 91.97% | 76.80% | 83.07% | 69.17% |
h base | 36.35 | 24.35 | 30.37 | 23.72 |
h alt pref | 36.27 | 24.32 | 30.82 | 23.72 |
h alt opp | 36.78 | 24.12 | 31.38 | 23.67 |
h counterf. | 36.73 | 24.04 | 31.67 | 23.60 |
Preferences couples.
Log likelihood | −8482.1758 | ||
---|---|---|---|
Description | Estimate | Standard Error | t-value |
1.a) Consumption & leisure interaction M&F | |||
Consumption Couples exponent | 0.610 | 0.051 | 11.96 |
Consumption Couples constant | 4.873 | 0.310 | 15.70 |
Leisure interaction M&F.in couples | 0.206 | 0.077 | 2.69 |
Consumption single M exponent | 0.292 | 0.123 | 2.38 |
Consumption single M constant | 4.740 | 0.395 | 12.00 |
Consumption single F exponent | 0.049 | 0.149 | 0.33 |
Consumption single F constant | 4.181 | 0.338 | 12.36 |
1.b) Leisure coefficients males in couples | |||
Leisure M in couples exponent | −8.351 | 0.663 | −12.59 |
Leisure M in couples constant | 20.959 | 7.880 | 2.66 |
Leisure M in couples ln(age) | −11.339 | 4.321 | −2.62 |
Leisure M in couples ln(age)2 | 1.591 | 0.601 | 2.65 |
Leisure M in couples ch03 | 0.007 | 0.059 | 0.12 |
Leisure M in couples ch36 | 0.078 | 0.063 | 1.23 |
Leisure M in couples ch69 | −0.009 | 0.058 | −0.15 |
Leisure M in couples dum region Walloona | 0.132 | 0.068 | 1.94 |
Leisure M in couples dum region Brusselsa | 0.168 | 0.112 | 1.49 |
Leisure M in couples dum education LOWb | −0.174 | 0.085 | −2.05 |
Leisure M in couples dum education HIGHb | −0.078 | 0.060 | −1.31 |
1.c) Leisure coefficients females in couples | |||
Leisure F in couples exponent | −6.995 | 0.502 | −13.93 |
Leisure F in couples constant | 32.068 | 14.700 | 2.18 |
Leisure F in couples ln(age) | −18.521 | 8.368 | −2.21 |
Leisure F in couples ln(age)2 | 2.879 | 1.197 | 2.40 |
Leisure F in couples ch03 | 0.550 | 0.179 | 3.08 |
Leisure F in couples ch36 | 0.533 | 0.187 | 2.84 |
Leisure F in couples ch69 | 0.426 | 0.191 | 2.23 |
Leisure F in couples dum region Walloona | 0.302 | 0.173 | 1.74 |
Leisure F in couples dum region Brusselsa | 0.062 | 0.247 | 0.25 |
Leisure F in couples dum education LOWb | 0.612 | 0.331 | 1.85 |
Leisure F in couples dum education HIGHb | −0.753 | 0.183 | −4.10 |
-
a
Flanders region is reference category.
-
b
Middle education level is reference category.
Preferences singles.
Description | Estimate | Standard Error | t-value |
---|---|---|---|
1.d) Leisure coefficients single males | |||
Leisure single M exponent | −5.444 | 1.002 | −5.43 |
Leisure single M constant | 36.394 | 23.737 | 1.53 |
Leisure single M ln(age) | −20.375 | 13.239 | −1.54 |
Leisure single M ln(age)2 | 3.024 | 1.865 | 1.62 |
Leisure single M ch36 | −0.457 | 1.112 | −0.41 |
Leisure single M ch69 | −1.135 | 0.698 | −1.63 |
Leisure single M dum region Walloona | 0.951 | 0.425 | 2.24 |
Leisure single M dum region Brusselsa | 0.262 | 0.372 | 0.70 |
Leisure single M dum education LOWb | −0.581 | 0.387 | −1.50 |
Leisure single M dum education HIGHb | −0.502 | 0.335 | −1.50 |
1.e) Leisure coefficients single females | |||
Leisure single F exponent | −7.688 | 0.977 | −7.87 |
Leisure single F constant | 62.678 | 23.311 | 2.69 |
Leisure single F ln(age) | −34.609 | 12.929 | −2.68 |
Leisure single F ln(age)2 | 4.876 | 1.809 | 2.70 |
Leisure single F ch03 | 0.838 | 0.502 | 1.67 |
Leisure single F ch36 | 0.128 | 0.239 | 0.54 |
Leisure single F ch69 | −0.141 | 0.196 | −0.72 |
Leisure single F dum region Walloona | 0.212 | 0.199 | 1.06 |
Leisure single F dum region Brusselsa | −0.258 | 0.188 | −1.37 |
Leisure single F dum education LOWb | 0.133 | 0.326 | 0.41 |
Leisure single F dum education HIGHb | −0.616 | 0.217 | −2.84 |
-
a
Flanders region is reference category;
-
b
Middle education level is reference category.
Opportunities, relative intensity of market alternatives, peaks hours, and wage offer distribution.
Description | Estimate | Standard Error | t-value |
---|---|---|---|
2.a) Estimated coefficients opportunities & peaks males | |||
Opportunity M constant | −4.488 | 0.247 | −18.19 |
Opportunity M unemployment rate | 0.338 | 0.226 | 1.50 |
Opportunity M dummy region Walloona | −0.547 | 0.223 | −2.45 |
Opportunity M dummy region Brusselsa | −1.215 | 0.285 | −4.27 |
Opportunity M dummy LOW educationb | −0.987 | 0.277 | −3.56 |
Opportunity M dummy HIGH educationb | 0.049 | 0.265 | 0.19 |
Peaks M <18.5,20.5> interval | 0.643 | 0.229 | 2.81 |
Peaks M <29.5,30.5> interval | 0.862 | 0.189 | 4.55 |
Peaks M <37.5,40.5> interval | 2.690 | 0.060 | 45.17 |
2.b) Estimated coefficients opportunities & peaks females | |||
Opportunity F constant | −4.300 | 0.185 | −23.19 |
Opportunity F unemployment rate | −0.072 | 0.124 | −0.58 |
Opportunity F dummy region Walloona | −0.394 | 0.157 | −2.51 |
Opportunity F dummy region Brusselsa | −0.783 | 0.219 | −3.58 |
Opportunity F dummy LOW educationb | −0.339 | 0.217 | −1.56 |
Opportunity F dummy HIGH educationb | 0.522 | 0.195 | 2.68 |
Peaks F <18.5,20.5> interval | 1.636 | 0.100 | 16.42 |
Peaks F <29.5,30.5> interval | 1.804 | 0.108 | 16.69 |
Peaks F <37.5,40.5> interval | 2.206 | 0.070 | 31.36 |
3. Estimated coefficients wage equations | |||
3.a) Wage equation males | |||
Wage M σ | 0.264 | 0.004 | 60.63 |
Wage M constant | 2.066 | 0.029 | 72.00 |
Wage M potential experience | 2.297 | 0.244 | 9.41 |
Wage M potential experience2 | −3.110 | 0.545 | −5.71 |
Wage M LOW educationb | −0.147 | 0.019 | −7.79 |
Wage M HIGH educationb | 0.260 | 0.015 | 17.39 |
3.b) Wage equation females | |||
Wage F σ | 0.261 | 0.004 | 59.05 |
Wage F constant | 2.043 | 0.026 | 77.61 |
Wage F potential experience | 2.457 | 0.239 | 10.30 |
Wage F potential experience2 | −3.869 | 0.592 | −6.54 |
Wage F LOW educationb | −0.095 | 0.023 | −4.08 |
Wage F HIGH educationb | 0.291 | 0.016 | 18.61 |
-
a
Flanders region is reference category;
-
b
Middle education level is reference category.