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Inequality and household size: A microsimulation for Uruguay

  1. Veronica Amarante  Is a corresponding author
  1. Organismos Internacionales / Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe, Uruguay
Research article
Cite this article as: V. Amarante; 2017; Inequality and household size: A microsimulation for Uruguay; International Journal of Microsimulation; 10(1); 73-105. doi: 10.34196/ijm.00150
4 figures and 11 tables

Figures

Household income and inequality.

Source: Own calculations based on household surveys.

Poverty incidence. Uruguay. 1996–2013.

Source: Own calculations based on household surveys.

Gini index and total fertility index in Latin America.

Source: CEPALSTAT.

Total fertility index in Latin America.

Source: CEPALSTAT.

Tables

Table 1
Number of children per household. Household head younger than 50.
Number of children per household Change
Education (hh head) 1996 2007 2013 1996–2007 2007–2013 1996–2013
Primary or less 1.97 2.03 1.85 3.0% −8.9% −6.2%
Secondary 1.55 1.44 1.41 −7.4% −2.3% −9.5%
Technical 1.76 1.41 1.21 −19.9% −14.3% −31.3%
Teachers 1.32 0.98 1.01 −25.5% 2.7% −23.4%
Tertiary 1.26 0.90 0.83 −28.4% −7.4% −33.6%
Total 1.66 1.46 1.32 −12.0% −9.8% −20.7%
  1. Source: Own calculations based on household surveys.

Table 2
Change in the number of children per household. Household head younger than 50.
1996 2007 2013 1996–2007 2007–2013 1996–2013
Deciles 1–5 2.23 2.11 1.91 −5% −10% −15%
Deciles 6–10 1.09 0.82 0.73 −25% −11% −33%
Total 1.66 1.46 1.32 −12% −10% −20%
  1. Source: Own calculations based on household surveys.

  2. Note: Deciles are calculated on the basis of per capita household income.

Table 3
Estimation of fertility equations. Dependent variable: number of children in the household. Biparental households. 1996, 2007 and 2013.
1996 2007 2013
OLS Poisson Neg. binomial OLS Poisson OLS Poisson Neg. binomial
Medium ed. Hh −0.217
(0.0435)***
−0.116
(0.0251)***
−0.116
(0.0251)***
−0.404
(0.00632)***
−0.223
(0.0036)***
−0.301
(0.00562)***
−0.177
(0.00399)***
−0.145
(0.0097)***
High educ hh −0.242
(0.0672)***
−0.140
(0.0412)***
−0.140
(0.0412)***
−0.534
(0.00915)***
−0.324
(0.0624)***
−0.535
(0.00744)***
−0.365
(0.00580)***
−0.193
(0.00578)***
Med. educ. sp. −0.208
(0.0446)***
−0.109
(0.0255)***
−0.109
(0.0255)***
−0.38
(0.00653)***
−0.205
(0.00396)***
−0.287
(0.00574)***
−0.167
(0.00406)***
−0.135
(0.00403)***
High educ sp. −0.463
(0.0636)***
−0.260
(0.0393)***
−0.260
(0.0393)***
−0.653
(0.00866)***
−0.405
(0.00581)***
−0.495
(0.0037)***
−0.326
(0.00564)***
−0.188
(0.00563)***
Age hh 0.306
(0.0261)***
0.150
(0.0192)***
0.150
(0.0192)***
0.189
(0.00340)***
0.122
(0.00257)***
0.183
(0.00273)***
0.144
(0.00237)***
0.073
(0.00230)***
Age2 hh −0.004
(3.47e-4)***
−0.002
(2.53e-4)***
−0.002
(2.53e-4)***
−0.0025
(4.58e-5)***
−0.0016
(3.45e-5)***
−0.002
(3.70e-5)***
−0.002
(3.20e-5)***
−0.001
(3.10e-5)***
Age spouse 0.176
(0.0154)***
0.198
(0.0145)**
0.198
(0.0145)***
0.19
(0.0225)***
0.169
(.00193)***
0.144
(0.00189)***
0.117
(0.00172)***
0.048
(0.00168)***
Age2 spouse −0.003
(1.95e-4)***
−0.003
(1.97e-4)***
−0.003
(1.97e-4)***
−0.0026
(2.9e-5)***
−0.0024
(2.6e-5)***
−0.002
(2.42e-5)***
−0.002
(2.26e-5)***
−0.001
(2.21e-5)***
Region −0.162
(0.0369)***
−0.087
(0.0219)***
−0.087
(0.0219)***
−0.148
(0.00502)***
−0.0898
(0.00334)***
−0.065
(0.00414)***
−0.046
(0.00321)***
−0.011
(0.00318)***
Sex of hh −0.110
(0.107)
−0.102
(0.071)
−0.102
(0.15)
−0.095
(0.00777)***
−0.069
(0.00544)***
−0.013
(0.00504)**
−0.007
(0.00396)*
0.023
(0.00402)***
Non lab inc hh 0.011
(0.00200)***
0.006
(0.00115)***
0.006
(0.00115)***
0.0008
(0.000250)***
0.0003
(0.000166)
−0.021
(0.000467)***
−0.012
(0.000315)***
−0.008
(0.000322)***
Non lab inc sp 0.010
(2.33e-3)***
0.005
(1.35e-3)***
0.005
(1.35e-3)***
0.003
(0.0002)***
0.0021
(0.00015)***
− (-) − (-) − (-)
Constant −6.089
(0.424)***
−5.232
(0.314)***
−5.232
(0.314)***
−4.329
(0.0553)***
−4.242
(0.0433)***
−3.679
(0.0439)***
−3.908
(0.0400)***
−1.288
(0.0384)***
Observations 5,011 5,011 5,011 249,790 249,790 289,302 289,302 226,850
  1. Standard errors in parentheses.

  2. *

    Significant at 10%;

  3. **

    significant at 5%;

  4. ***

    significant at 1%.

  5. Source: Own estimations based on household survey.

Table 4
Labour supply. Dependent variable: hours of work. Tobit estimation.
Household heads Spouses
1996 2007 2013 1996 2007 2013
Sex 7.31
(0.957)***
16.92
(0.0742)***
14.80
(0.0587)***
22.45
(2.829)***
25.22
(0.201)***
19.87
(0.111)***
Age 1.74
(0.322)***
1.66
(0.0397)***
2.21
(0.0335)***
4.71
(0.464)***
4.44
(0.0562)***
3.23
(0.0407)***
Age −0.02 squared (0.0044)*** −0.02
(0.00054)***
−0.03
(0.00046)***
−0.06
(0.0063)***
−0.06
(0.00075)***
−0.04
(0.00054)***
Region 0.68
(0.527)
−0.49
(0.0663)***
−1.02
(0.0578)***
4.03
(1.054)***
2.40
(0.127)***
1.10
(0.0941)***
Children −0.07
(0.196)
−1.22
(0.0247)***
−0.97
(0.0237)***
−3.72
(0.405)***
−4.56
(0.0517)***
−3.75
(0.0416)***
School −10.83
(1.520)***
−7.33
(0.148)***
−3.48
(0.116)***
−4.36
(2.635)*
−6.28
(0.263)***
−4.75
(0.185)***
Med. educ. 4.21
(0.586)***
5.29
(0.0801)***
5.72
(0.0762)***
14.71
(1.256)***
11.42
(0.169)***
8.02
(0.134)***
High edu. 6.71
(0.820)***
7.79
(0.108)***
6.89
(0.0952)***
29.21
(1.659)***
21.15
(0.214)***
14.52
(0.162)***
Married 3.77
(0.899)***
1.51
(0.0701)***
0.56
(0.0626)***
29.50
(19.16)
−0.79
(0.141)***
−0.95
(0.101)***
Non lab inc. −0.39 -0.39
(0.0306)***
0.36
(0.00375)***
0.33
(0.00559)***
Income of hh. −3.86
(0.731)***
−1.57
(0.0754)***
−0.60
(0.0628)***
Constant −3.17
(5.693)
−5.21
(0.696)***
−17.00
(0.585)***
−85.33
(21.34)***
−57.53
(1.13)***
−37.34
(0.905)***
Observat-ions 7,648 405,657 463,118 5,448 258,113 285,446
  1. Standard errors in parentheses.

  2. *

    Significant at 10%.

  3. **

    significant at 5%.

  4. ***

    significant at 1%.

  5. Source: Own estimations based on household surveys.

Table 5
Wage equation estimation with selection correction (Heckman maximum likelihood). Dependent variable: hourly wages. Household heads.
1996 2007 2013
Hourly wages Selec. eq. Hourly wages Selec. eq. Hourly wages Selec. eq.
Sex 0.191
(0.031)***
0.155
(0.072)**
0.126
(0.0034)***
0.939
(0.0066)***
0.098
(0.0023)***
0.881
(0.0059)***
Age 0.068
(0.010)***
0.090
(0.024)***
0.021
(0.0015)***
0.139
(0.0035)***
0.032
(0.0013)***
0.154
(0.0029)***
Age sq. −0.0008
(1.4e-4)***
−0.0012
(3.3e-4)***
0.0000
(2.1e-5)**
−0.0018
(4.8e-5)***
−0.0003
(1.8e-5)***
−0.0020
(4.1e-05)***
Region 0.299
(0.017)***
0.005
(0.042)
0.146
(0.0025)***
0.045
(0.0065)***
0.062
(0.0022)***
−0.092
(0.0056)***
Med. educ. 0.338
(0.019)***
0.275
(0.045)***
0.385
(0.0031)***
0.333
(0.0071)***
0.244
(0.0029)***
0.388
(0.0066)***
High educ. 0.860
(0.026)***
0.611
(0.072)***
1.097
(0.0040)***
0.786
(0.012)***
0.778
(0.0034)***
0.761
(0.0092)***
Married 0.073
(0.028)***
0.078
(0.069)
0.121
(0.0026)***
0.065
(0.0069)***
0.161
(0.0023)***
−0.044
(0.0063)***
Children −0.022
(0.015)
−0.096
(0.0022)***
−0.058
(0.0020)***
School −0.471
(0.11)***
−0.590
(0.013)***
−0.255
(0.010)***
Non lab. inc. −0.031
(0.0022)***
0.013
(0.00035)***
0.016
(0.00047)***
Constant 3.44
(0.19)***
−0.88
(0.42)**
3.91
(0.028)***
−1.92
(0.060)***
4.52
(0.023)***
−2.27
(0.050)***
Observations 7,500 7,500 397,207 397,207 459,519 459,519
  1. Standard errors in parentheses.

  2. *

    Significant at 10%.

  3. **

    significant at 5%.

  4. ***

    significant at 1%.

  5. Source: Own estimations based on household surveys.

Table 6
Wage equation estimation with selection correction (Heckman maximum likelihood). Dependent variable: hourly wages. Spouses.
1996 2007 2013
Hourly wages Selec. eq. Hourly wages Selec. eq. Hourly wages Selec. eq.
Sex 0.258
(0.068)***
0.660
(0.12)***
0.106
(0.013)***
1.218
(0.012)***
0.028
(0.0032)***
1.051
(0.0087)***
Age 0.076
(0.013)***
0.161
(0.016)***
0.056
(0.0026)***
0.183
(0.0023)***
0.026
(0.0013)***
0.089
(0.0022)***
Age sq. −0.0009
(1.7e-4)***
−0.0020
(2.1e-4)***
−0.0006
(3.3e-5)***
−0.0023
(3.1e-5)***
−0.0002
(1.7e-5)***
−0.0012
(2.9e-5)***
Region 0.390
(0.027)***
0.182
(0.037)***
0.183
(0.0040)***
0.106
(0.0056)***
0.102
(0.0029)***
−0.004
(0.0055)
Med. educ. 0.449
(0.037)***
0.447
(0.043)***
0.357
(0.0081)***
0.406
(0.0074)***
0.186
(0.0042)***
0.083
(0.0071)***
High educ. 1.180
(0.053)***
1.309
(0.065)***
1.121
(0.015)***
1.105
(0.011)***
0.670
(0.0048)***
0.256
(0.0099)***
Married −0.496
(0.50)
0.613
(0.63)
0.110
(0.0043)***
0.005
(0.0065)
0.127
(0.0031)***
−0.181
(0.0060)***
Children −0.110
(0.014)***
−0.169
(0.0023)***
−0.083
(0.0022)***
School −0.228
(0.098)**
−0.276
(0.013)***
−0.250
(0.010)***
Income hh −0.208
(0.026)***
−0.098
(0.0061)***
0.811
(0.0044)***
Constant 3.38
(0.57)***
−2.14
(0.71)***
3.19
(0.067)***
−2.43
(0.060)***
4.69
(0.023)***
−9.35
(0.055)***
Observations 5,486 5,486 256,300 256,300 308,271 308,271
  1. Standard errors in parentheses.

  2. *

    Significant at 10%.

  3. **

    significant at 5%.

  4. ***

    significant at 1%.

  5. Source: Own estimations based on household surveys.

Table 7
Number of children per type of household. 1996, 2007 and simulations for 2007 and 2013.
1996–2007 1996 2007 Fertility size effect (FSE) Change due to FSE
Lone parents 1.08 1.02 0.93 −8.4%
Biparental 1.81 1.60 1.68 4.7%
Other 1.63 1.67 1.46 −12.4%
Total 1.66 1.46 1.46 −0.2%
2007–2013 2007 2013 Fertility size effect (FSE) Change due to FSE
Lone parents 1.02 0.90 0.89 −1.3%
Biparental 1.60 1.46 1.45 −0.3%
Other 1.67 1.45 1.48 2.1%
Total 1.46 1.32 1.32 −0.2%
  1. Source: Own estimations based on household surveys.

Table 8
Main results from the microsimulations.
1996–2007 1996 2007 Fertility size effect Hours size effect Hours parameter effect
Mean income 8,381 7,641 7,645 7,597 7,335
Poverty incidence 17.0 29.8 26.7 30.3 31.6
Extreme poverty incidence 1.7 2.6 1.3 3.2 3.3
Theil index 32.4 38.7 36.1 39.1 39.4
Gini coefficient 42.6 45.7 43.7 45.9 45.9
2007–2013 2007 2013 Fertility size effect Hours size effect Hours parameter effect
Mean income 7,641 10,370 10,373 10,294 8,191
Poverty incidence 29.8 12.0 10.0 13.2 10.5
Extreme poverty incidence 2.6 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.7
Theil index 38.7 25.8 24.6 26.4 25.1
Gini coefficient 45.7 38.3 37.1 38.8 38.1
  1. Source: Own estimations based on household surveys.

Table 9
Impact of fertility changes on income, poverty and inequality.1996–2007, 2007–2014.
Observed change Fertility direct effect Hours direct effect Hour Parameter effect Total effect
1996–2007
Mean income −740 3 −45 −306 −348
Poverty 12.8 −3.1 0.5 1.8 −0.8
Extreme poverty 1.0 −1.3 0.6 0.7 −0.1
Theil 6.2 −2.6 0.4 0.7 −1.5
Gini coefficient 3.1 −2.0 0.2 0.2 −1.6
2007–2013
Mean income 2,728 4 −75 −2,179 −2,250
Poverty −17.8 −2.1 1.2 −1.5 −2.3
Extreme poverty −2.1 −0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Theil −12.8 −1.2 0.6 −0.7 −1.3
Gini coefficient −7.4 −1.2 0.5 −0.2 −1.0
  1. Source: Own estimations based on household surveys.

Table A.1
Estimation of fertility equations. Dependent variable: number of children in the household. Lone parent households.1996, 2007 and 2013.
1996 2007 2013
OLS Poisson Neg. bin OLS Poisson Neg. bin OLS Poisson Neg. bin
Education
Medium hh 0.220
(0.156)
0.564
(0.217)***
0.558
(0.223)**
−0.065
(0.0153)***
−0.228
(0.0274)***
−0.228
(0.0277)***
−0.047
(0.0132)***
−0.176
(0.0274)***
−0.176
(0.0274)***
High hh 0.003
(0.191)
−0.037
(0.315)
−0.037
(0.321)
−0.201
(0.0184)***
−1.419
(0.0518)***
−1.420
(0.0520)***
−0.167
(0.0157)***
−1.333
(0.0476)***
−1.333
(0.0476)***
Medium whh −0.698
(0.184)***
−0.870
(0.227)***
−0.865
(0.235)***
−0.673
(0.0185)***
−0.186
(0.0283)***
−0.185
(0.0287)***
−0.519
(0.0166)***
−0.147
(0.0284)***
−0.147
(0.0284)***
High whh −0.750
(0.223)***
−0.507
(0.327)
−0.508
(0.335)
−1.127
(0.0219)***
0.415
(0.0528)***
0.416
(0.0531)***
−1.092
(0.0193)***
0.352
(0.0487)***
0.352
(0.0487)***
Age
Age hh 0.083
(0.064)
0.482
(0.143)***
0.478
(0.145)***
0.014
(0.0066)**
0.334
(0.0207)***
0.330
(0.0208)***
0.000
(0.0052)
0.281
(0.0194)***
0.281
(0.0194)***
Age2 hh −0.001
(9e-4)
−0.006
(0.0018)***
−0.006
(1.9e-3)***
0.000
(9.1e-5)
−0.004
(2.7e-4)***
−0.004
(2.7e-4)***
0.000
(7.3e-5)**
−0.003
(2.5e-4)***
−0.003
(2.5e-4)***
Age whh 0.330
(0.079)***
−0.125
(0.149)
−0.124
(0.152)
0.359
(0.0083)***
−0.026
(0.0213)
−0.021
(0.0214)
0.374
(0.0069)***
0.038
(0.0200)*
0.038
(0.0200)*
Age2 whh −0.005
(1e-3)***
0.001
(0.0019)
0.001
(0.002)
−0.005
(1.2e-4)***
−0.001
(2.8e-4)***
−0.001
(2.8e-4)***
−0.005
(9.5e-5)***
−0.002
(2.9e-4)***
−0.002
(2.9e-4)***
Region
Region −0.123
(0.144)
−0.332
(0.195)*
−0.335
(0.202)*
−0.010
(0.0127)
−0.074
(0.0257)***
−0.073
(0.0259)***
−0.008
(0.0102)
−0.059
(0.0245)**
−0.059
(0.0245)**
Region whh −0.124
(0.167)
0.171
(0.205)
0.179
(0.213)
−0.344
(0.0153)***
−0.174
(0.0265)***
−0.176
(0.0269)***
−0.060
(0.0128)***
0.009
(0.0254)
0.009
(0.0254)
Sex
Sex of hh −3.594
(1.370)***
5.442
(2.826)*
5.409
(2.878)*
−3.825
(0.145)***
4.192
(0.403)***
4.106
(0.405)***
−4.283
(0.121)***
3.475
(0.381)***
3.475
(0.381)***
Non-labour
Inc. hh 0.011
(6e-3)*
0.026
(8.3e-3)***
0.026
(8.6e-3)***
0.003
(5.8e-4)***
0.016
(0.00125)***
0.016
(0.0013)***
0.003
(5.5e-4)***
0.020
(1.5e-3)***
0.020
(1.5e-3)***
Inc. whh 0.014
(7e-3)*
−0.006
(0.0088)
−0.006
(9.2e-3)
0.030
(7.6e-4)***
0.015
(0.00135)***
0.015
(0.0014)***
−0.003
(7.8e-4)***
−0.019
(1.5e-3)***
−0.019
(1.5e-3)***
Constant −1.363
(1.083)
−10.880
(2.713)***
−10.820
(2.753)***
−0.163
(0.115)
−8.690
(0.394)***
−8.616
(0.395)***
0.030
(0.0909)
−8.195
(0.371)***
−8.195
(0.371)***
Observations 1,205 1,205 1,205 102,096 102,096 102,096 114,463 114,463 114,463
  1. Standard errors in parentheses.

  2. *

    Significant at 10%.

  3. **

    significant at 5%.

  4. ***

    significant at 1%.

  5. Source: Own estimations based on household surveys.

Table A.2
Estimation of fertility equations. Dependent variable: number of children in the household. Other households. 1996, 2007 and 2013.
1996 2007 2013
OLS Poisson Neg. Bin. OLS Poisson Neg. Bin. OLS Poisson Neg. Bin.
Med. educ hh −0.379
(0.082)***
−0.225
(0.046)***
−0.229
(0.049)***
−0.637
(0.016)***
−0.323
(0.0074)***
−0.332
(0.0086)***
−0.679
(0.015)***
−0.353
(0.0075)***
−0.363
(0.0091)***
High educ hh −0.717
(0.12)***
−0.572
(0.083)***
−0.584
(0.086)***
−1.325
(0.021)***
−1.126
(0.015)***
−1.152
(0.016)***
−1.477
(0.019)***
−1.434
(0.015)***
−1.447
(0.017)***
Med. educ. spouse −0.251
(0.10)**
−0.083
(0.053)
−0.082
(0.056)
−0.494
(0.022)***
−0.138
(0.0093)***
−0.131
(0.011)***
−0.437
(0.021)***
−0.124
(0.0097)***
−0.129
(0.012)***
High educ. spouse −0.332
(0.16)**
−0.079
(0.088)
−0.073
(0.093)
−0.782
(0.031)***
−0.209
(0.016)***
−0.185
(0.019)***
−0.524
(0.031)***
−0.062
(0.018)***
−0.043
(0.021)**
Age hh 0.128
(0.041)***
0.095
(0.027)***
0.093
(0.028)***
0.167
(7.2e-3)***
0.152
(4.4 e-3)***
0.147
(4.9e-3)***
0.145
(6e-3)***
0.123
(0.0041)***
0.120
(0.0047)***
Age2 hh −0.002
(5.7e-4)***
−0.001
(3.7e-4)***
−0.001
(3.9e-4)***
−0.002
(1e-4)***
−0.002
(5.9e-5)***
−0.002
(6.7e-5)***
−0.002
(8.7e-5)***
−0.002
(5.6e-5)***
−0.002
(6.5e-5)***
Age spouse 0.104
(9.5e-3)***
0.069
(0.0058)***
0.070
(0.0061)***
0.093
(1.8e-3)***
0.053
(8.5e-4)***
0.056
(1e-3)***
0.089
(1.6e-3)***
0.055
(8.4e-4)***
0.059
(0.0010)***
Age2 spouse −0.002
(2e-4)***
−0.001
(1.2e-4)***
−0.001
(1.3e-4)***
−0.001
(3.4e-5)***
−0.001
(1.7e-5)***
−0.001
(2e-5)***
−0.001
(3.2e-5)***
−0.001
(1.8e-5)***
−0.001
(2.1e-5)***
Region −0.283
(0.074)***
−0.178
(0.042)***
−0.182
(0.044)***
−0.176
(0.014)***
−0.120
(0.0069)***
−0.141
(0.008)***
−0.257
(0.012)***
−0.186
(0.0067)***
−0.198
(0.0083)***
Sex of hh 0.525
(0.11)***
0.433
(0.071)***
0.455
(0.076)***
0.643
(0.015)***
0.445
(0.0082)***
0.506
(0.010)***
0.655
(0.012)***
0.505
(0.0074)***
0.564
(0.0091)***
Non labour inc. hh 0.012
(3.8e-3)***
0.008
(0.0022)***
0.008
(0.0023)***
0.009
(6.6e-4)***
0.006
(3.5e-4)***
0.006
(4.1e-4)***
−0.042
(1.5e-3)***
−0.026
(7.7e-4)***
−0.028
(9.9e-4)***
Non labour inc. sp. 0.013
(0.0058)**
0.005
(0.0029)*
0.006
(0.0031)*
0.008
(8.9e-4)***
0.004
(0.0004)***
0.004
(4.9e-4)***
(-) (-) (-)
Constant −0.870
(0.700)
−1.653
(0.48)***
−1.625
(0.50)***
−1.421
(0.13)***
−2.561
(0.079)***
−2.522
(0.088)***
−0.616
(0.106)***
−1.812
(0.072)***
−1.819
(0.082)***
Observations 1,431 1,431 1,431 53,661 53,661 53,661 59,329 59,329 59,329
  1. Standard errors in parentheses.

  2. *

    Significant at 10%.

  3. **

    significant at 5%.

  4. ***

    significant at 1%.

  5. Source: Own estimations based on household surveys.

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