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Labour supply and demand

Research articles · Aug 31, 2018

Female labour force projections using microsimulation for six EU countries

Ross Richardson, Lia Pacelli, Ambra Poggi, Matteo Richiardi

Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, United Kingdom; Universita’ di Torino and LABORatorio Revelli, Italy; University of Milan-Bicocca and LABORatorio Revelli, Italy; Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School and Nuffield College, Italy

Volume 11(2) Summer 2018

Cite as: R. Richardson, L. Pacelli, A. Poggi, M. Richiardi; 2018; Female labour force projections using microsimulation for six EU countries; International Journal of Microsimulation; 11(2); 5–51. doi: 10.34196/ijm.00180

Abstract

We project medium to long term trends in labour force participation and employment for selected low-participation European Union countries (Italy, Spain, Ireland, Hungary and Greece), with Sweden as a benchmark, by means of a dynamic microsimulation model. By 2020, only Sweden will be above the Europe 2020 target of 75% employment rate, though Ireland will be close; the target will be approached by all other countries only at the end of the simulation period at 2050, with the exception of Hungary. Our forecasts, that fully take into account the uncertainty coming from the estimation of all the processes in the microsimulation, significantly depart from the official projections of the European Commission for two of the six countries under analysis.

This article contains 10 figures and 41 tables.

Figures

Figure 1. Female participation rates (top panel) and gender participation gaps (bottom panel). Age group: 20–64.
Figure 2. Female employment rates (top panel) and gender employment gaps (bottom panel). Age group: 20–64.
Figure 3. Correlations between the female participation rate and key demographic and economic variables in the EU28 countries. Red dot: EU28 average.
Figure 4. Model structure.
Figure 5. Average effective age of retirement – men.
Figure 6. Average effective age of retirement – women.
Figure 7. Projected employment rates (20–64 years old), and target line at 75%.
Figure 8. Projected labour force participation rates.
Figure 9. Projected employment rates.
Figure 10. Uncertainty analysis.

Tables

Table 1. Gender Equality Index: Participation.
Country Index Country Index
Sweden 94.7 France 75.0
Denmark 85.3 Bulgaria 72.9
Finland 85.3 Slovakia 72.3
Estonia 83.6 Romania 71.8
Latvia 80.8 Luxembourg 71.3
Lithuania 79.8 Poland 71.1
Cyprus 79.6 Ireland 69.8
Portugal 78.4 Spain 69.5
Slovenia 77.4 Hungary 67.5
United Kingdom 77.4 Belgium 66.9
Austria 77.0 Croatia 62.0
Germany 75.9 Greece 59.5
Netherlands 75.6 Italy 57.1
Czech Republic 75.3 Malta 56.2

Source: European Institute for Gender Equality (2015).

Notes: The index ranges from 0 (maximum inequality) to 100 (maximum equality). Countries selected for analysis are in bold.

Table 2. Determinants of the estimated processes at an individual level.
Outcome Determinants
Student age, gender, region
Education age, gender, region
Consensual union (female only) age, student(t−1), education, participation(t−1), cohabitation(t−1), children(t−1), region, retired(t−1)
Maternity (female only) age, student(t−1), education, participation(t−1), cohabitation(t−1), children(t−1), region, fertility rate, public childcare, maternity benefits, part-time rate
Participation: women with children aged 0–3 inclusive age, student(t−1), education, participation(t−1), cohabitation(t−1), region, public childcare, maternity benefits, part-time rate, post-crisis dummy
Participation: women with children aged 4–12 inclusive age, student(t−1), education, participation(t−1), cohabitation(t−1), region, part-time rate, post-crisis dummy
Participation: women without children aged 0–12 inclusive age, student(t−1), education, participation(t−1), cohabitation(t−1), region, post-crisis dummy
Participation: men age, student(t−1), education, participation(t−1), region, post-crisis dummy
Employment age, gender, student(t−1), education, participation(t−1), unemployment rate, region, post-crisis dummy

Notes: Determinants annotated with (t−1) symbolise that the one-period (one year) lag is used.

Table 3. Scenario and model parameters.
Scenario parameters Differentiated by* Modules affected
Initial status at age 17 years gender and simulation time 17-year olds
Persistence of the effects of the Great Recession simulation time Participation
Overall unemployment rate simulation time Employment
Policy parameters Differentiated by* Modules affected
Average retirement age gender and simulation time Retirement
Standard deviation of retirement age gender and simulation time Retirement
Public childcare expenditures region (NUTS 116) and simulation time Maternity Participation (females with children aged 3 years or under only)
Leave benefits simulation time Maternity Participation (females with children aged 3 years or under only)
Availability of part-time work region (NUTS 1) and simulation time Maternity Participation (females with children only)

All parameters (not further distinguished by region) are also differentiated by countries. Simulation time runs from 2013 to 2050.

Table 4. Comparison of microsimulation model (MSM) outcomes with the projections of the cohort simulation model (CSM) of the 2015 Ageing Report (European Commission, 2015). Labour force participation (male and female population).
Outcome Participation rate (%) Participation rate (%)
Model Eurostat CSM MSM Eurostat CSM MSM
Age group 15–64 15–64 18–64 55–64 55–64 55–64
Time 2013 2060 2050 2013 2060 2050
Greece (EL) 67.7 75.4 77.3 42.4 78.0 76.8
Spain (ES) 74.2 78.9 79.3 54.2 82.5 76.9
Hungary (HU) 64.7 73.0 72.8 41.8 77.5 75.1
Ireland (IE) 69.7 68.2 75.2 57.3 64.6 77.5
Italy (IT) 63.4 65.2 75.2 45.4 69.0 70.9
Sweden (SE) 81.3 82.3 86.3 77.7 78.9 95.1
Table 5. Comparison of microsimulation model (MSM) outcomes with the projections of the cohort simulation model (CSM) of the 2015 Ageing Report (European Commission, 2015). Employment and unemployment (male and female population).
Outcome Employment rate (%) Employment rate (%) Unemployment rate (%)
Model Eurostat CSM MSM Eurostat CSM MSM Eurostat CSM MSM
Age group 15–64 15–64 18–64 55–64 55–64 55–64 15–64 15–64 18–64
Time 2013 2060 2050 2013 2060 2050 2013 2060 2050
Greece (EL) 48.7 69.8 69.6 35.5 74.6 73.8 28.0 7.5 9.9
Spain (ES) 54.5 73.0 72.3 43.4 77.9 72.9 26.5 7.5 8.8
Hungary (HU) 58.0 67.5 67.2 38.6 73.6 71.5 10.3 7.5 7.6
Ireland (IE) 60.4 63.5 71.6 51.2 61.3 76.5 13.3 6.8 4.9
Italy (IT) 55.5 60.3 69.7 42.8 66.7 69.5 12.4 7.5 7.3
Sweden (SE) 74.6 77.4 80.0 73.7 76.0 92.1 8.2 5.9 7.4
Table 6. Participation rates and participation gaps with respect to Sweden, female population aged 20–64 years, baseline scenario.
Females (20–64 years old)
Year 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050
Participation rates (%)
Sweden 86.4 88.3 89.6 89.4 89.7
Spain 70.9 72.3 71.8 73.3 75.5
Hungary 65.1 66.8 70.2 71.3 71.3
Ireland 62.8 69.5 69.6 69.6 72
Greece 62.4 64.1 67.1 70 73
Italy 59.0 63.3 64.7 67 68.8
Participation gap w.r.t. Sweden (%)
Spain 15.5 16.0 17.8 16.1 14.2
Hungary 21.3 21.5 19.4 18.1 18.4
Ireland 23.6 18.8 20.0 19.8 17.7
Greece 24.0 24.2 22.5 19.4 16.7
Italy 27.4 25.0 24.9 22.4 20.9
Table A.3.1. Probit Estimates of the probability of remaining in education, Education module.
Enrolment EL ES HU
(probit) Coefficient   Robust SE Coefficient   Robust SE Coefficient   Robust SE
gender = Female −0.092   0.060 0.064   0.038 0.045   0.042
age > 22 & age <= 25 −0.406 ** 0.071 −0.462 ** 0.045 −0.519 ** 0.050
age >25 & age <=30 −0.989 ** 0.099 −0.923 ** 0.057 −1.355 ** 0.082
regional dummies yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
_cons 1.200 ** 0.065 1.012 ** 0.057 1.239 ** 0.054
Pseudo R2 0.049     0.055     0.069    
Number of observations 2,556     5,916     5,107    
Enrolment IE IT SE
(probit) Coefficient   Robust SE Coefficient   Robust SE Coefficient   Robust SE
gender = Female 0.020   0.088 0.064   0.033 −0.030   0.048
age > 22 & age <= 25 −0.993 ** 0.174 −0.159 ** 0.040 −0.049   0.074
age >25 & age <=30 −0.274   0.279 −0.666 ** 0.045 −0.398 ** 0.080
regional dummies yes yes yes yes   yes yes yes yes
_cons 0.654 ** 0.065 0.952 ** 0.045 0.567 ** 0.049
Pseudo R2 0.0331     0.0298     0.0075    
Number of observations 922     7,816     2,660    

Notes: Population at risk: students aged 18–29 years.

Table A.3.2.1. Multinomial probit estimates of the probability of having attained a specific educational level, Education module (base outcome is education = Medium).
Education EL ES HU
(multinomial probit) Coefficient   Robust SE Coefficient   Robust SE Coefficient   Robust SE
education = High                  
gender = Female 0.757 ** 0.241 0.162   0.123 0.719 ** 0.160
Age 3.827 ** 0.635 2.298 ** 0.357 5.329 ** 0.721
age squared −0.071 ** 0.013 −0.042 ** 0.007 −0.099 ** 0.015
regional dummies yes     yes     yes    
constant −51.059 ** 7.868 −30.380 ** 4.317 −71.249 ** 8.805
education = Low                  
gender = Female −0.534   0.307 −0.473 ** 0.128 −0.253   0.195
age −1.813 ** 0.638 −2.006 ** 0.280 −4.744 ** 0.461
age squared 0.038 ** 0.014 0.039 ** 0.006 0.094 ** 0.010
regional dummies Yes     yes     yes    
constant 19.835 ** 7.253 25.045 ** 3.217 56.681 ** 5.409
Number of observations 431     1,234         928
Education IE IT SE
(multinomial probit) Coefficient   Robust SE Coefficient   Robust SE Coefficient   Robust SE
education = High                  
gender = Female 0.140   0.366 0.371 ** 0.124 0.314 * 0.209
age −1.315   2.872 2.998 ** 0.534 0.540 ** 0.535
age squared 0.053   0.068 −0.053 ** 0.010 4.084 ** 0.0110732
regional dummies yes     yes     yes    
constant 3.025   30.189 −41.766 ** 6.803 −55.727   6.396
education = Low                  
gender = Female −0.148   0.376 −0.172   0.121 −0.145   0.163
age −7.570 ** 1.951 −1.227 ** 0.254 −1.103 * 0.477
age squared 0.175 ** 0.048 0.025 ** 0.005 0.026 * 0.010
regional dummies yes     yes     yes    
constant 79.188 ** 19.796 13.336 ** 2.941 10.251 5.474
Number of observations 219     1,511     848    

Notes: Population at risk: former students aged 18–30 who have just left education.

Table A.4.1.1. Probit estimates of the probability of living in consensual union, Household composition module.
Living in union   EL   ES       HU  
(probit) Coefficient   Robust SE Coefficient   Robust SE Coefficient   Robust SE
active (t-1) −0.146 * 0.059 −0.098 * 0.040 −0.040   0.050
student (t-1) −0.575 * 0.242 −0.726 ** 0.158 −0.253   0.192
living in union (t-1) 4.085 ** 0.060 3.907 ** 0.037 4.028 ** 0.040
children aged 3 or under (t-1) −0.036   0.152 0.089   0.075 0.247 * 0.113
retired (t-1) 0.058   0.072 0.004   0.058 −0.010   0.062
age 0.040 ** 0.011 0.026 ** 0.007 0.021 * 0.010
age squared −0.001 ** 0.000 −0.000 ** 0.000 0.000 ** 0.000
education = Medium 0.007   0.053 −0.059   0.041 0.134 ** 0.043
education = High 0.151 * 0.067 0.015   0.040 0.059   0.053
regional dummies yes     yes     yes    
constant −2.374 ** 0.256 −2.027 ** 0.171 −2.336 ** 0.236
Pseudo R2 0.846     0.831     0.842    
Number of observations 16,725     33,353     24,977    
Living in union IE IT SE
(probit) Coefficient   Robust SE Coefficient   Robust SE Coefficient   Robust SE
active (t-1) −0.071   0.071 −0.059   0.039 −0.213 ** 0.073
student (t-1) −0.675   0.471 −0.280 * 0.110 −0.548 ** 0.141
living in union (t-1) 3.964 ** 0.095 4.304 ** 0.035 3.092 ** 0.050
children aged 3 or under (t-1) 0.552 ** 0.140 0.137   0.092 0.704 ** 0.085
retired (t-1) −0.573 ** 0.135 0.043   0.044 0.001   0.089
age 0.152 ** 0.019 0.029 ** 0.007 0.089 ** 0.011
age squared −0.001 ** 0.000 −0.000 ** 0.000 −0.001 ** 0.000
education = Medium 0.392 ** 0.079 −0.055   0.035 −0.016   0.054
education = High 0.300 ** 0.087 −0.007   0.050 0.031   0.057
regional dummies yes     Yes     yes    
constant −6.280 ** 0.529 −2.112 ** 0.156 −3.515 ** 0.271
Pseudo R2 0.796 0.874 0.641
Number of observations 6,817 48,036 13,596

Notes: Population at risk: females aged 18–75 who are not students.

Table A.4.2.1. Pooled probit estimates of the probability of having a child, Household composition module.
Maternity EL ES HU
(pooled probit with country interactions) Coefficient   Robust SE Coefficient   Robust SE Coefficient   Robust SE
public childcare exp. / child (000 $PPP) 0.148 ** 0.015 0.148 ** 0.015 0.148 ** 0.015
on leave benefits (weeks) −0.004   0.010 −0.00   0.010 −0.004   0.0102
availability of part-time work (%) 1.298   0.955 1.298   0.955 1.298   0.9554
active (t-1) 0.059   0.044 0.059   0.044 0.059   0.0438
student (t-1) −0.126   0.099 −0.126   0.099 −0.126   0.0994
living in union (t-1) 0.768 ** 0.050 0.768 ** 0.050 0.768 ** 0.0498
children aged 3 or under (t-1) 0.310 * 0.134 −0.650 ** 0.099 −0.405 * 0.1639
children aged 4–12 (t-1) −0.553 ** 0.182 −0.393 ** 0.079 −0.678 ** 0.1721
age 0.262 ** 0.030 0.262 ** 0.030 0.262 ** 0.0303
age squared −0.005 ** 0.001 −0.005 ** 0.001 −0.005 ** 0.0005
education = Medium 0.039   0.043 0.039   0.043 0.039   0.043
education = High 0.163 ** 0.045 0.163 ** 0.045 0.163 ** 0.045
regional dummies Yes     yes     yes    
fertility rate 27.476 ** 2.875 27.476 ** 2.875 27.476 ** 2.875
constant −6.513 ** 0.589 −6.513 ** 0.589 −6.513 ** 0.589
Maternity   IE     IT     SE  
(pooled probit with country interactions) Coefficient   Robust SE Coefficient   Robust SE Coefficient   Robust SE
public childcare exp. / child (000 $PPP) 0.148 ** 0.015 0.148 ** 0.015 0.148 ** 0.015
on leave benefits (weeks) −0.004   0.010 −0.004   0.010 −0.004   0.010
availability of part-time work (%) 1.298   0.955 1.298   0.955 1.298   0.955
active (t-1) 0.059   0.044 0.059   0.044 0.059   0.044
student (t-1) −0.126   0.099 −0.126   0.099 −0.126   0.099
living in union (t-1) 0.768 ** 0.050 0.768 ** 0.050 0.768 ** 0.050
children aged 3 or under (t-1) −0.317   0.266 −0.871 ** 0.090 −0.977 ** 0.178
children aged 4–12 (t-1) −0.368   0.246 −0.467 ** 0.057 −0.716 ** 0.140
age 0.262 ** 0.030 0.262 ** 0.030 0.262 ** 0.030
age squared −0.005 ** 0.001 −0.005 ** 0.001 −0.005 ** 0.001
education = Medium 0.039   0.043 0.039   0.043 0.039   0.043
education = High 0.163 ** 0.045 0.163 ** 0.045 0.163 ** 0.045
regional dummies yes     Yes     yes    
fertility 27.476 ** 2.875 27.476 ** 2.875 27.476 ** 2.875
constant −6.513 ** 0.589 −6.513 ** 0.589 −6.513 ** 0.589
Pseudo R2 = 0.179                  
Number of observations = 60,019                  

Notes: Population at risk: females aged 18–45 who are not students.

Table A.5.1.1. Distribution of retirement age.
Observed EL ES HU IE IT SE
retirement age Mean SD Mean SD Mean SD Mean SD Mean SD Mean SD
gender = Male
2007 63.3 6.0 63.6 5.4 61.8 2.5 64.5 1.1 62.3 7.0 65.8 4.7
2008 62.2 5.6 63.4 4.3 59.7 5.7 63.8 4.9 63.6 6.7 65.0 2.8
2009 62.5 5.2 63.2 4.1 60.9 5.8 65.1 4.4 62.9 6.4 65.3 3.8
2010 61.1 6.0 63.5 3.7 59.4 5.3     64.2 6.2 65.3 2.6
2011 62.0 6.0 62.5 6.0 60.1 6.0     63.3 6.1 66.2 3.1
gender = Female
2007 60.6 5.5 63.5 5.0 59.3 3.3 66.2 0.8 63.5 6.5 64.4 3.4
2008 59.8 5.1 63.9 4.3 60.3 4.1 62.1 5.2 64.0 6.9 63.5 5.4
2009 59.0 8.0 63.6 3.5 60.0 3.8 61.9 7.4 63.5 6.9 63.6 5.1
2010 60.7 6.6 64.4 3.6 59.9 4.7     64.2 6.5 65.6 2.3
2011 58.9 6.0 63.1 5.9 60.8 4.6     65.5 6.6 65.3 2.6
Table A.5.2.1. Pooled probit estimates of the probability of being active, Labour market module.
Labour market participation Females with children aged 0–3 only EL ES HU
(pooled probit with country interactions) Coefficient   Robust SE Coefficient   Robust SE Coefficient   Robust SE
public childcare exp. / child (000 $PPP) 0.077 ** 0.020 0.077 ** 0.020 0.077 ** 0.020
on leave benefits (weeks) 0.045 ** 0.015 0.045 ** 0.015 0.045 ** 0.015
availability of part-time work (%) 2.489   1.713 2.489   1.713 2.489   1.713
active (t-1) 2.442 ** 0.290 1.448 ** 0.127 0.296 * 0.153
student (t-1) 0.311   0.219 0.311   0.219 0.311   0.219
living in union (t-1) −0.178 * 0.086 −0.178 * 0.086 −0.178 * 0.086
age 0.122 ** 0.047 0.122 ** 0.047 0.122 ** 0.047
age squared −0.002 * 0.001 −0.002 * 0.001 −0.002 * 0.001
education = Medium 0.233 ** 0.069 0.233 ** 0.069 0.233 ** 0.069
education = High 0.608 ** 0.081 0.608 ** 0.081 0.608 ** 0.081
regional dummies yes     yes     yes    
crisis (year>2008) −0.113   0.070 −0.113   0.070 −0.113   0.070
constant −4.313 ** 0.903 −4.313 ** 0.903 −4.313 ** 0.903
Labour market participation Females with children aged 0–3 only   IE     IT     SE  
(pooled probit with country interactions) Coefficient   Robust SE Coefficient   Robust SE Coefficient   Robust SE
public childcare exp. / child (000 $PPP) 0.077 ** 0.020 0.077 ** 0.020 0.077 ** 0.020
on leave benefits (weeks) 0.045 ** 0.015 0.045 ** 0.015 0.045 ** 0.015
availability of part-time work (%) 2.489   1.713 2.489   1.713 2.489   1.713
active (t-1) 2.598 ** 0.527 1.578 ** 0.092 0.892 ** 0.290
student (t-1) 0.311   0.219 0.311   0.219 0.311   0.219
living in union (t-1) −0.178 * 0.086 −0.178 * 0.086 −0.178 * 0.086
age 0.122 ** 0.047 0.122 ** 0.047 0.122 ** 0.047
age squared −0.002 * 0.001 −0.002 * 0.001 −0.002 * 0.001
education = Medium 0.233 ** 0.069 0.233 ** 0.069 0.233 ** 0.069
education = High 0.608 ** 0.081 0.608 ** 0.081 0.608 ** 0.081
regional dummies yes     yes     yes    
crisis (year>2008) −0.113   0.070 −0.113   0.070 −0.113   0.070
constant −4.313 ** 0.903 −4.313 ** 0.903 −4.313 ** 0.903
Pseudo R2 = 0.400                  
Number of observations = 3,531                  

Notes: Population at risk: females aged 18–74 years who are not students nor retired with children aged 0–3 years.

Table A.5.2.2. Pooled probit estimates of the probability of being active, Labour market module.
Labour market participation Females with children aged 4–12 only EL ES HU
(pooled probit with country interactions) Coefficient   Robust SE Coefficient   Robust SE Coefficient   Robust SE
availability of part-time work (%) 2.029 * 0.881 2.029 * 0.881 2.029 * 0.881
active (t-1) 3.159 ** 0.210 1.993 ** 0.065 1.787 ** 0.080
student (t-1) 1.307 ** 0.273 1.307 ** 0.273 1.307 ** 0.273
living in union (t-1) −0.195 ** 0.051 −0.195 ** 0.051 −0.195 ** 0.051
age 0.046   0.026 0.046   0.026 0.046   0.026
age squared −0.001 * 0.000 −0.001 * 0.000 −0.001 * 0.000
education = Medium 0.234 ** 0.036 0.234 ** 0.036 0.234 ** 0.036
education = High 0.283   0.184 0.416 ** 0.066 0.703 ** 0.131
regional dummies yes     yes     yes    
crisis (year>2008) −0.017   0.037 −0.017   0.037 −0.017   0.037
constant −1.530 ** 0.512 −1.530 ** 0.512 −1.530 ** 0.512
Labour market participation Females with children aged 4–12 only   IE     IT     SE  
(pooled probit with country interactions) Coefficient   Robust SE Coefficient   Robust SE Coefficient   Robust SE
availability of part-time work (%) 2.029 * 0.881 2.029 * 0.881 2.029 * 0.881
active (t-1) 2.328 ** 0.174 2.269 ** 0.058 1.666 ** 0.238
student (t-1) 1.307 ** 0.273 1.307 ** 0.273 1.307 ** 0.273
living in union (t-1) −0.195 ** 0.051 −0.195 ** 0.051 −0.195 ** 0.051
age 0.046   0.026 0.046   0.026 0.046   0.026
age squared −0.001 * 0.000 −0.001 * 0.000 −0.001 * 0.000
education = Medium 0.234 ** 0.036 0.234 ** 0.036 0.234 ** 0.036
education = High 0.196   0.181 0.587 ** 0.083 0.964 ** 0.284
regional dummies yes     yes     yes    
crisis (year>2008) −0.017   0.037 −0.017   0.037 −0.017   0.037
constant −1.530 ** 0.512 −1.530 ** 0.512 −1.530 ** 0.512
Pseudo R2 = 0.475                  
Number of observations 12,733

Notes: Population at risk: females aged 18–74 who are not students nor retired with children aged 4–12.

Table A.5.2.3. Estimates of the probability of being active, Labour market module.
Labour market participation Females without children aged 0–12 EL ES HU
(pooled probit with country interactions) Coefficient   Robust SE Coefficient   Robust SE Coefficient   Robust SE
active (t-1) 2.784 ** 0.041 2.432 ** 0.031 2.613 ** 0.041
student (t-1) 1.425 ** 0.041 1.425 ** 0.041 1.425 ** 0.041
living in union (t-1) −0.334 ** 0.044 −0.292 ** 0.027 −0.011   0.036
age 0.060 ** 0.004 0.060 ** 0.004 0.060 ** 0.004
age squared −0.001 ** 0.000 −0.001 ** 0.000 −0.001 ** 0.000
education = Medium 0.038   0.040 0.208 ** 0.031 0.301 ** 0.040
education = High 0.446 ** 0.057 0.601 ** 0.036 0.757 ** 0.061
regional dummies yes     yes     yes    
crisis (year>2008) 0.001   0.015 0.001   0.015 0.001   0.015
constant −1.669 ** 0.094 −1.669 ** 0.094 −1.669 ** 0.094
Labour market participation Females without children aged 0–12   IE     IT     SE  
(pooled probit with country interactions) Coefficient   Robust SE Coefficient   Robust SE Coefficient   Robust SE
active (t-1) 2.866 ** 0.067 2.348 ** 0.026 2.639 ** 0.075
student (t-1) 1.425 ** 0.041 1.425 ** 0.041 1.425 ** 0.041
living in union (t-1) −0.122   0.064 −0.263 ** 0.023 −0.041   0.074
age 0.060 ** 0.004 0.060 ** 0.004 0.060 ** 0.004
age squared −0.001 ** 0.000 −0.001 ** 0.000 −0.001 ** 0.000
education = Medium 0.350 ** 0.069 0.244 ** 0.023 0.244 ** 0.083
education = High 0.705 ** 0.086 0.585 ** 0.040 0.492 ** 0.100
regional dummies yes     yes     yes    
crisis (year>2008) 0.001   0.015 0.001   0.015 0.001   0.015
constant −1.669 ** 0.094 −1.669 ** 0.094 −1.669 ** 0.094
Pseudo R2 = 0.652                  
Number of observations 88,988                  

Notes: Population at risk: females aged 18–74 years who are not students nor retired, without children aged 0–12 years.

Table A.5.2.4. Estimates of the probability of being active, Labour market module.
EL ES HU
(probit) Coefficient   Robust SE Coefficient   Robust SE Coefficient   Robust SE
active (t-1) 3.104 *** 0.094 2.730 *** 0.049 2.602 *** 0.046
student (t-1) 1.533 *** 0.152 1.407 *** 0.091 0.988 *** 0.099
age −0.014 *** 0.016 0.026 *** 0.010 −0.011   0.012
age squared 0.000   0.000 0.000 *** 0.000 0.000   0.000
education = Medium 0.120 * 0.068 0.226 *** 0.047 0.392 *** 0.041
education = High 0.408 *** 0.104 0.393 *** 0.048 0.845 *** 0.076
regional dummies yes     yes     yes    
crisis (year>2008) 0.090   0.077 −0.010   0.040 0.066 * 0.039
constant −0.431   0.355 −0.897   0.209 −0.117   0.255
Pseudo R2 0.585     0.523     0.592    
Number of observations 11,884     26,461     16,700    
Labour market participation Males   IE     IT     SE  
(probit) Coefficient   Robust SE Coefficient   Robust SE Coefficient   Robust SE
active (t-1) 2.785 *** 0.081 1.937 *** 0.034 2.773 *** 0.102
student (t-1) 1.484 *** 0.177 1.105 *** 0.074 1.913 *** 0.180
age −0.029 * 0.017 0.051 *** 0.006 0.000   0.021
age squared 0.000   0.000 −0.001 *** 0.000 0.000   0.000
education = Medium 0.414 *** 0.086 0.185 *** 0.027 0.241 *** 0.087
education = High 0.647 *** 0.110 0.254 *** 0.043 0.455 *** 0.117
regional dummies yes     yes     yes    
crisis (year>2008) 0.001   0.074 −0.046 * 0.027 −0.082   0.077
constant −0.335   0.397 −0.834 *** 0.137 −0.276   0.474
Pseudo R2 0.576     0.366     0.528    
Number of observations 1,344     35,378     10,939    

Notes: Population at risk: males aged 18–74 years who are not students nor retired.

Table A.5.3.1. Estimates of the probability of being employed, Labour market module.
Employment EL ES HU
(probit) Coefficient   Robust SE Coefficient   Robust SE Coefficient   Robust SE
employed (t-1) 1.848 *** 0.034 1.631 *** 0.020 1.397 *** 0.028
student (t-1) 0.681 *** 0.078 0.775 *** 0.046 0.314 *** 0.061
gender = Female −0.079 *** 0.028 −0.015   0.016 0.122 *** 0.024
age 0.041 *** 0.008 0.251 *** 0.005 0.016 * 0.008
age squared 0.000 *** 0.000 0.440 ** 0.000 0.000   0.000
education = Medium 0.022   0.034 0.251 *** 0.021 0.527 *** 0.028
education = High 0.288 *** 0.039 0.440 *** 0.020 0.989 *** 0.043
regional dummies yes     yes     yes    
unemployment rate −0.068 *** 0.004 −0.035 *** 0.002 −0.063 *** 0.009
_cons −0.558 *** 0.176 −1.059 *** 0.103 0.031   0.177
Pseudo R2 0.331     0.283     0.265    
Number of observations 20,224     45,505     27,057    
Employment   IE     IT     SE  
(probit) Coefficient   Robust SE Coefficient   Robust SE Coefficient   Robust SE
employed (t-1) 1.811 *** 0.059 1.828 *** 0.021 1.660 *** 0.047
student (t-1) 1.202 *** 0.130 0.308 *** 0.040 0.491 *** 0.065
gender = Female 0.499 *** 0.055 −0.095 *** 0.018 0.061 * 0.035
age 0.027 * 0.011 0.033 *** 0.005 0.048 *** 0.009
age squared 0.000   0.000 0.000 ** 0.000 0.000 *** 0.000
education = Medium 0.403 *** 0.061 0.209 *** 0.019 0.315 *** 0.047
education = High 0.595 *** 0.064 0.393 *** 0.028 0.608 *** 0.057
regional dummies yes     yes     yes    
unemployment rate −0.077 *** 0.008 −0.183 *** 0.011 −0.094 *** 0.018
_cons −0.959 *** 0.254 0.335 ** 0.130 −0.514 ** 0.223
Pseudo R2 0.327     0.391     0.284    
Number of observations 7,697     68,840     20,923    

Notes: Population at risk: active people aged 18–74 years. Variables in blue are alignment variables.

Table A.6.1. Distribution of states for individuals aged 17.
  EL ES HU IE IT SE
Status            
Pr(student) 95.97 85.78 97.38 85.66 90.74 97.6
Pr(active | not student) 67.57 59.62 20.00 72.86 73.18 86.67
Pr(employed | active) 36.00 59.35 12.50 86.27 44.72 53.85
Education level            
Pr(education == Low) 99.54 98.36 63.58 100.00 96.65 96.65
Pr(education == Medium) 0.46 1.64 36.42 0.00 3.35 3.35
Pr(education == High) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Table B.1.1. Evolution of the female population, 20–64 years age range, Sweden.
Females aged 20–64 years (%)
  High education Low education In union Student Active Retired
2013 39.3 7.3 69.9 7.4 86.4 1.5
2020 38.8 7.3 69.6 7.6 88.3 1.5
2030 39.6 7.6 70.4 6.9 89.6 1.0
2040 41.1 7.8 71.7 7.5 89.4 0.5
2050 43.6 6.5 70.4 7.4 89.7 0.3
Table B.1.2. Evolution of the female population, 20–44 years age range, Sweden.
Females aged 20–44 years (%)
  In union Children aged 0–3 Children aged 0–12 Student Active Retired
2013 68.7 22.2 50.4 13.3 84.2 0.0
2020 67.8 22.2 50.4 13.7 84.6 0.0
2030 68.6 21.8 49.1 12.1 86.1 0.0
2040 69.0 21.7 47.5 13.3 85.1 0.0
2050 68.3 22.0 48.8 12.9 85.6 0.0
Table B.1.3. Female participation rates, 20–44 years age range, Sweden.
Females aged 20–44 years (students excluded): Participation rates (%)
Without children aged 0–12 years With children aged 0–12 years
  Highest part. region Lowest part. region All High education Low education All High education Low education
(SE1) (SE2)
2013 97.7 96.5 97.1 98.3 95.0 97.0 99.0 93.5
2020 98.6 97.5 97.3 98.6 93.9 98.4 99.8 95.0
2030 98.6 97.5 97.8 97.8 96.6 97.9 99.5 94.4
2040 98.5 97.7 97.9 98.1 96.7 98.2 99.6 94.6
2050 98.7 98.1 98.0 98.3 96.3 98.4 99.5 95.0
Table B.1.4. Female participation rates, 55–64 years age range, Sweden.
Females aged 55–64 years: Participation rates (%)
  Highest part. region (SE2) Lowest part. region (SE1) High education Low education
2013 84.4 82.2 90.2 73.9
2020 88.2 88.0 90.9 78.3
2030 90.0 91.7 93.5 78.2
2040 91.5 94.1 94.5 85.4
2050 91.9 94.3 95.2 86.3
Table B.2.1. Evolution of the female population, 20–64 years age range, Italy.
Females aged 20–64 years (%)
  High education Low education In union Student Active Retired
2013 16.8 36.0 61.8 6.6 59.0 4.7
2020 19.7 29.6 55.6 6.8 63.3 3.9
2030 23.0 25.6 48.8 7.2 64.7 3.8
2040 25.2 24.4 42.9 7.5 67.0 2.5
2050 25.5 24.7 40.4 7.3 68.8 1.6
Table B.2.2. Evolution of the female population, 20–44 years age range, Italy.
Females aged 20–44 years (%)
  In union Children aged 0–3 Children aged 0–12 Student Active Retired
2013 52.2 15.8 42.7 12.5 64.7 0.0
2020 38.5 17.1 40.8 13.7 70.8 0.0
2030 27.7 17.6 40.9 14.5 71.2 0.0
2040 27.3 18.5 43.0 14.1 71.1 0.0
2050 27.8 18.8 44.7 13.6 72.1 0.0
Table B.2.3. Female participation rates, 20–44 years age range, Italy.
Females aged 20–44 years (students excluded): Participation rates (%)
Without children aged 0–12 years With children aged 0–12 years
  Highest part. region (ITH) Lowest part. region (ITG) All High education Low education All High education Low education
2013 85.5 54.0 81.5 93.4 66.1 66.1 88.8 47.7
2020 91.3 65.5 83.8 94.8 67.6 80.0 93.2 64.0
2030 91.3 66.8 84.5 93.3 73.0 81.9 93.2 68.9
2040 90.1 67.1 83.8 94.5 73.2 81.8 94.3 71.3
2050 91.2 68.2 84.7 94.2 74.5 82.1 93.4 70.3
Table B.2.4. Female participation rates, 55–64 years age range, Italy.
Females aged 55–64 years: Participation rates (%)
  Highest part. region (ITI) Lowest part. region (ITG) High education Low education
2013 41.1 24.5 68.8 23.3
2020 43.5 25.4 65.2 27.6
2030 47.6 28.5 69.0 29.1
2040 55.8 30.3 71.4 28.1
2050 59.8 35.3 72.8 31.4
Table B.3.1. Evolution of the female population, 20–64 years age range, Spain.
Females aged 20–64 years (%)
  High education Low education In union Student Active Retired
2013 32.3 38.1 63.9 6.1 70.9 2.3
2020 35.0 33.6 59.2 5.3 72.3 3.5
2030 35.8 29.6 52.1 6.6 71.8 2.6
2040 33.5 28.9 46.4 7.2 73.3 1.6
2050 34.3 29.2 43.2 6.9 75.5 0.5
Table B.3.2. Evolution of the female population, 20–44 years age range, Spain.
Females aged 20–44 years (%)
  In union Children aged 0–3 Children aged 0–12 Student Active Retired
2013 55.5 15.4 41.4 10.7 76.8 0.0
2020 44.6 16.7 41.4 10.6 77.5 0.0
2030 29.5 15.6 36.6 14.6 73.8 0.0
2040 28.7 17.5 38.6 14.1 74.5 0.0
2050 30.8 18.3 42.2 12.1 76.5 0.0
Table B.3.3. Female participation rates, 20–44 years age range, Spain.
Females aged 20–44 years (students excluded): Participation rates (%)
Without children aged 0–12 years With children aged 0–12 years
  Highest part. region (ES3) Lowest part. region (ES4) All High education Low education All High education Low education
2013 88.7 82.4 90.2 96.0 81.9 81.2 89.2 71.1
2020 89.6 81.9 90.4 97.5 82.8 82.2 90.9 69.5
2030 87.4 82.9 89.7 97.1 83.1 82.1 92.0 71.2
2040 87.4 84.1 90.3 97.2 83.4 82.3 92.0 73.4
2050 87.3 85.4 90.8 97.3 82.9 83.0 91.3 72.7
Table B.3.4. Female participation rates, 55–64 years age range, Spain.
Females aged 55–64 years: Participation rates (%)
  Highest part. region (ES7) Lowest part. region (ES1) High education Low education
2013 50.8 41.8 71.9 37.7
2020 52.5 44.3 72.8 38.5
2030 55.6 58.8 77.6 39.5
2040 66.3 57.1 78.2 43.7
2050 51.5 57.6 82.2 41.9
Table B.4.1. Evolution of the female population, 20–64 years age range, Greece.
Females aged 20–64 years (%)
  High education Low education In union Student Active Retired
2013 28.0 24.7 67.7 6.3 62.4 9.1
2020 32.0 19.1 61.6 5.4 64.1 9.8
2030 35.1 13.5 53.9 5.9 67.1 7.1
2040 36.9 11.8 47.3 6.3 70.0 4.0
2050 37.4 12.0 43.9 6.4 73.0 1.6
Table B.4.2. Evolution of the female population, 20–44 years age range, Greece.
Females aged 20–44 years (%)
  In union Children aged 0–3 Children aged 0–12 Student Active Retired
2013 56.0 14.6 41.1 11.3 71.7 0.2
2020 42.2 14.8 35.6 10.6 73.7 0.0
2030 29.4 14.9 32.4 12.4 74.3 0.0
2040 27.6 16.4 34.6 12.5 74.1 0.0
2050 29.0 16.3 36.2 11.8 74.6 0.0
Table B.4.3. Female participation rates, 20–44 years age range, Greece.
Females aged 20–44 years (students excluded): Participation rates (%)
Without children aged 0–12 years With children aged 0–12 years
  Highest part. region (EL4) Lowest part. region (EL1) All High education Low education All High education Low education
2013 70.9 68.9 89.9 96.5 76.6 70.3 83.9 53.8
2020 76.6 71.4 88.1 94.5 78.7 73.7 84.7 51.5
2030 78.2 71.6 88.8 94.8 82.3 78.4 86.8 59.1
2040 80.8 70.4 89.0 95.2 84.4 78.1 86.2 60.3
2050 81.5 70.1 89.0 94.9 84.7 78.3 87.2 63.8
Table B.4.4. Female participation rates, 55–64 years age range, Greece.
Females aged 55–64 years: Participation rates (%)
  Highest part. region (EL4) Lowest part. region (EL2) High education Low education
2013 32.2 26.6 41.1 29.7
2020 36.0 34.8 53.7 26.5
2030 46.5 42.2 57.1 36.3
2040 51.4 50.0 70.6 37.9
2050 64.4 58.8 73.2 44.6
Table B.5.1. Evolution of the female population, 20–64 years age range, Hungary.
Females aged 20–64 years (%)
  High education Low education In union Student Active Retired
2013 24.3 17.9 61.4 6.7 65.1 8.9
2020 26.8 16.1 51.6 7.4 66.8 5.9
2030 29.8 13.6 42.2 6.8 70.2 2.7
2040 31.9 11.4 35.9 6.8 71.3 1.6
2050 31.7 11.0 32.4 7.3 71.3 0.4
Table B.5.2. Evolution of the female population, 20–44 years age range, Hungary.
Females aged 20–44 years (%)
  In union Children aged 0–3 Children aged 0–12 Student Active Retired
2013 56.3 13.6 44.2 12.2 66.2 0.0
2020 39.7 16.6 41.3 13.5 64.1 0.0
2030 24.5 18.4 43.2 13.5 63.3 0.0
2040 22.6 19.2 45.4 13.7 62.7 0.0
2050 23.1 19.5 46.5 14.0 62.1 0.0
Table B.5.3. Female participation rates, 20–44 years age range, Hungary.
Females aged 20–44 years (students excluded): Participation rates (%)
Without children aged 0–12 years With children aged 0–12 years
  Highest part. region (HU2) Lowest part. region (HU3) All High education Low education All High education Low education
2013 78.9 73.6 92.4 97.8 74.6 58.7 64.1 44.5
2020 78.4 71.2 90.4 97.6 77.1 56.3 63.0 50.2
2030 76.4 71.3 90.5 97.1 78.9 55.7 64.0 47.7
2040 76.1 70.7 90.1 97.0 79.8 56.8 64.7 52.3
2050 76.8 70.1 90.5 96.8 75.6 56.6 63.7 46.7
Table B.5.4. Female participation rates, 55–64 years age range, Hungary.
Females aged 55–64 years: Participation rates (%)
  Highest part. region (HU1) Lowest part. region (HU2) High education Low education
2013 48.8 44.2 59.2 31.0
2020 60.6 54.7 71.3 35.2
2030 74.8 66.4 83.6 44.1
2040 78.3 70.9 86.8 48.8
2050 83.9 75.9 90.6 51.4
Table B.6.1. Evolution of the female population, 20–64 years age range, Ireland.
Females aged 20–64 years (%)
  High education Low education In union Student Active Retired
2013 35.9 23.8 59.2 5.4 62.8 2.3
2020 37.5 21.0 60.5 5.2 69.5 3.6
2030 37.3 20.8 66.0 6.8 69.6 2.5
2040 35.3 21.8 64.1 7.8 69.6 1.4
2050 37.0 21.7 63.4 6.8 72.0 0.5
Table B.6.2. Evolution of the female population, 20–44 years age range, Ireland.
Females aged 20–44 years (%)
  In union Children aged 0–3 Children aged 0–12 Student Active Retired
2013 52.4 20.9 52.0 8.8 68.1 0.0
2020 53.8 22.8 45.2 9.3 74.4 0.0
2030 55.8 19.9 36.4 13.5 69.3 0.0
2040 53.2 21.7 37.8 13.5 68.9 0.0
2050 53.2 22.9 41.8 10.7 73.6 0.0
Table B.6.3. Female participation rates, 20–44 years age range, Ireland.
Females aged 20–44 years (students excluded): Participation rates (%)
    Without children aged 0–12 years With children aged 0–12 years
  All All High education Low education All High education Low education
2013 74.7 89.3 95.3 73.3 63.7 78.6 42.1
2020 82.0 85.4 94.4 66.9 78.6 85.5 60.1
2030 80.1 82.4 93.6 68.8 77.0 85.4 60.9
2040 79.6 82.1 93.7 70.1 76.4 87.0 61.6
2050 82.4 86.2 93.7 71.4 78.2 86.4 62.2
Table B.6.4. Female participation rates, 55–64 years age range, Ireland.
Females aged 55–64 years: Participation rates (%)
  All* High education Low education
2013 41.1 72.7 23.1
2020 49.9 69.8 29.6
2030 60.9 78.3 35.4
2040 67.0 78.9 37.8
2050 64.8 79.6 37.8

Notes:

Ireland has a single NUTS 1 region.