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Dynamic microsimulation

Research articles · Apr 30, 2020

The dynamic cross-sectional microsimulation model MOSART

Leif Andreassen, Dennis Fredriksen, Hege M Gjefsen, Elin Halvorsen, Nils M Stølen

Statistics Norway, Oslo, Norway

Volume 13(1) Spring 2020

Cite as: L. Andreassen, D. Fredriksen, H. Gjefsen, E. Halvorsen, N. Stølen; 2020; The dynamic cross-sectional microsimulation model MOSART; International Journal of Microsimulation; 13(1); 92–113. doi: 10.34196/ijm.00214

Abstract

Based on a cross-section of the Norwegian population and a comprehensive set of characteristics MOSART is one of the longest running and actively used models in the family of dynamic microsimulation models. The first version was operative in 1990, and its main use has been projections and policy analyses regarding the design and evaluation of the Norwegian pension system. The aim of the paper is to provide an updated overview of the model with technical platform, comparison with other dynamic microsimulation models, the main events included and its main use.

This article contains 9 figures and 2 tables.

Figures

Figure 1. Total fertility rate by birthyear and year. Source: Statistics Norway.
Figure 2. Observed and projected annual immigration by region of origin 1970–2060. Source: Statistics Norway.
Figure 3. Labour force by educational level. Historic development and projections. 1990–2040. Source: Statistics Norway.
Figure 4. Actual and projected labour force. 1,000 man-years Source: Statistics Norway.
Figure 5. NIS old-age pension benefits in 2017 sorted by percentile. NOK Source: Statistics Norway.
Figure 6. Projected old-age pension expenditures in the National Insurance Scheme. Bill. NOK measured in fixed 2017 wage amounts. Source: Statistics Norway.
Figure 7. Projected old-age pension expenditures for occupational pensions in the public sector. Bill. NOK measured in fixed 2017 wage amounts. Source: Statistics Norway.
Figure 8. Estimated distribution of pension benefits in 2050 by income percentile and gender (share of average earnings). Source: Fredriksen and Stølen (2014). Note: Benefits are shown before indexation and exposure to the life expectancy adjustment divisor.
Figure 9. Total life-time benefits from old-age pensions in NIS relative to total life-time earnings for persons in the 1963-cohort by income decile and gender. Source: Statistics Norway.

Tables

Table 1. Total population by main age groups based on the main alternative from Statistics Norway’s population projections 2018. 1000 persons per January 1
Total 2018 2035 2060
5332 5938 6530
0–19 years 1 258 1 277 1 344
20–66 years 3269 3455 3600
67–79 years 580 755 885
80+ years 226 425 702

Source, Statistics Norway.

Table 2. Individual pension benefits. Average over the retirement phase
Average amount at each step in NOK Gender gap Change compared to previous step in NOK Change in gender gap
Men Women Men Women
0. Baseline 268 164 154 176 43 % – – –
1. Gender neutral annuity divisor 242 600 168 341 31 % −25 564 14 166 −12 %
2. Social security ceiling 206 926 158 741 23 % −35 674 −9 600 −7 %
3. Child credits 209 087 174 748 16 % 2 161 16 007 −7 %
4. Inherited benefits 209 726 181 298 14 % 639 6 549 −3 %
5. Guarantee pension undifferentiated 214 718 191 563 11 % 4 992 10 265 −3 %
6. Guarantee pension with higher benefits for singles 215 891 193 815 10 % 1 173 2 252 −1 %
7. Income taxes 189 320 175 459 7 % −26 571 −18 356 −3 %

Source, Halvorsen and Pedersen (2019).