1. Methodology
  2. Health
  3. Dynamic microsimulation
Download icon

Using sequence analysis to visualize and validate model transitions

  1. Janne Salonen  Is a corresponding author
  2. Jyrki Möttönen
  3. Heikki Tikanmäki
  4. Tapio Nummi
  1. Finnish Centre for Pensions, Finland
  2. University of Helsinki, Finland
  3. Tampere University, Finland
Research article
Volume 13(2) Summer 2020
Cite this article as: J. Salonen, J. Möttönen, H. Tikanmäki, T. Nummi; 2020; Using sequence analysis to visualize and validate model transitions; International Journal of Microsimulation; 13(2); 61-78. doi: 10.34196/ijm.00218
5 figures, 5 tables and 1 additional file

Figures

Figure 1
Download asset Open asset
Sequence index plot of cohort born in 1970, individuals.
Figure 2
Download asset Open asset
State distribution plot for the 1970 cohort by gender, per cent.
Figure 3
Download asset Open asset
Mean time in state for 1970 cohort by education, years.
Figure 4
Download asset Open asset
Clustering transition sequences of cohort born 1970.
Figure 5
Download asset Open asset
Employment trajectories of cohort born in 2000 (k=6). Dotted line indicates old-age retirement age.

Tables

Table 1
Labor market states and corresponding color codes in figures.
Labor market state ELSI state(s) Abb. Substantial contents
Basic pension 21,22 bap National pension only
Deceased 12 DEC Deceased people remain in the model population until the end of the simulation period
Early OA Pension 7 eop Early old-age pension, retirement age adjusted for life-expectancy
Employed 1,10,11,15,16 EMP Full or part time employed
Full D Pension 9,5,17 fdp Full disability pension, leading to old-age pension
Inactive 4,13,19 INA Outside the labor force
Misfits 20 MIS Permanently outside the labor force
NA ‘’ NA Technical state for sequence analysis, not a labor market state in ELSI
OA Pension 8 oap Old-age pension, retirement age adjusted for life-expectancy
Part D Pension 18 pdp Partial disability pension
Unemployed 2,3 UNE Unemployed
YoS Pension 6 yos Years-of-service pension. Available for individuals aged 63 who have had a long and strenuous working life. No subjective choice.

  1. Notes. The Non-aggregated model states are given in the Appendix A.2.

Table 2
Five most common transition sequences of cohorts born in 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000, individuals and shares.
Transition sequence Count %
1970
 EMP/11 - oap/5 58 15.4
 INA/15 - oap/1 23 6.1
 EMP/12 - oap/4 22 5.9
 DEC/16 13 3.5
 EMP/13 - oap/3 13 3.5
1980
 EMP/12 - oap/4 57 15.4
 INA/15 - oap/1 25 6.8
 DEC/16 16 4.3
 EMP/13 - oap/3 14 3.8
 fdp/12 - oap/4 11 3.0
1990
 EMP/13 - oap/3 71 15.5
 INA/15 - oap/1 35 7.6
 EMP/14 - oap/2 28 6.1
 EMP/15 - oap/1 14 3.1
 fdp/13 - oap/3 13 2.8
2000
 EMP/13 - oap/3 54 14.0
 INA/15 - oap/1 26 6.7
 EMP/14 - oap/2 18 4.7
 EMP/15 - oap/1 18 4.7
 fdp/13 - oap/3 10 2.6
Table 3
Transition rates of cohort born in 1970, per cent.
To
From bap DEC eop EMP fdp INA MIS NA oap pdp UNE yos
bap 97.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
DEC 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
eop 0.0 0.0 72.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
EMP 0.0 0.3 0.2 87.0 0.4 4.0 0.0 0.0 5.2 0.2 2.4 0.3
fdp 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.8 82.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 15.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
INA 0.0 0.5 0.1 1.2 5.3 77.9 0.0 0.0 11.9 0.1 2.8 0.0
MIS 16.7 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 73.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.0
NA 0.0 2.6 0.0 5.1 0.0 0.0 10.3 82.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
oap 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
pdp 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8 2.4 0.0 0.0 16.7 76.2 0.0 0.0
UNE 0.0 0.6 1.6 14.9 0.0 6.3 0.3 0.0 10.8 0.0 65.4 0.0
yos 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0 0.0 0.0 50.0
Table A2
ELSI model states.
No. Contents
15 Full-time employed for the first consecutive year
16 Full-time employed for the second consecutive year
1 Full-time employed for at least the third consecutive year
2 Unemployed (excluding those on an unemployment pathway to retirement)
3 On an unemployment pathway to retirement
4 Sickness benefits preceding full disability pension
5 Part-time pension
11 Partial old-age pension and employed
10 Partial disability pension and employed
6 Years-of-service pension
7 Partial old-age pension and not employed
8 Old-age pension
17 Full disability pension for the first consecutive year
9 Full disability pension for at least the second consecutive year
18 Partial disability pension and not employed
21 National old-age pension only
22 National disability pension only
13 Outside the labor force but has accrued earnings-related pension
19 Permanently outside the labor force but has accrued earnings-related pension
20 Outside the labor force and has not accrued earnings-related pension
12 Deceased
Table A3
Labor market states of the cohort born in 1970 at ages 55 to 70, per cent.
Labor market state 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70
Basic pension 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
Deceased 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 11
Early OA pension 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 3 2 1 0 0 0
Employed 69 67 67 65 64 61 59 56 44 37 35 14 5 2 1 0
Full D pension 5 5 6 6 7 8 10 11 13 15 15 0 0 0 0 0
Inactive 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 21 24 24 13 8 5 5 0
Misfits 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
NA 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0
OA pension 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 61 75 81 82 87
Part D pension 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
Unemployed 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0
YoS pension 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Data and code availability

Data and code have been provided to the journal and are available from its website.

Additional files

Supplementary file 1. Code and data
http://web:8082/00218/IJM_00218_code_and_data.zip

Download links

A two-part list of links to download the article, or parts of the article, in various formats.

Downloads (link to download the article as PDF)

Download citations (links to download the citations from this article in formats compatible with various reference manager tools)

Open citations (links to open the citations from this article in various online reference manager services)