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Research articles · Aug 31, 2020

Calibration of Vehicle and Driver Characteristics in VISSIM and ANN-based Sensitivity Analysis

Marsh M Bandi, Varghese George

National Institute of Technology Karnataka, Surathkal, Mangalore, India

Volume 13(2) Summer 2020

Cite as: M. Bandi, V. George; 2020; Calibration of Vehicle and Driver Characteristics in VISSIM and ANN-based Sensitivity Analysis; International Journal of Microsimulation; 13(2); 79–101. doi: 10.34196/ijm.00219

Abstract

Traffic-flow modeling using microsimulation approaches facilitates the study of bottlenecks and assists in the analysis of traffic-flow characteristics, the movement of individual vehicles, and in the study of vehicle and driver characteristics. The present study focuses on performing investigations on assessing the influence of vehicle and driver characteristics on accurate prediction of traffic volumes in Mangalore city road network. The multi-stage first-level of calibrations were performed starting with default values of vehicle and driver characteristics followed by testing of various combinations. The accuracy of predicting simulated volumes was measured using GEH-statistic. An ANN-based sensitivity analysis was performed to find the relative importance of vehicle and driver characteristics, which revealed that the average standstill distance, minimum look-ahead distance, and the desired speed: lower bounds for speed distributions were highly sensitive. The second-level of calibrations were performed by fine-tuning these three characteristics in three stages and the final VISSIM model was validated.

This article contains 3 figures and 9 tables.

Figures

Figure 1. AutoCAD Drawing Interfaced with High-Resolution Map of Mangalore City.
Figure 2. A Pictorial Representation of Observed and Predicted Volumes at 18 mid-block Sections Using Random Seeds 25, 28, 42, and 50.
Figure 3. A Pictorial Representation of the Reduction in MAEs for Various Stages of Calibration Using Random Seed 42.

Tables

Table 1. Suggested Lower and Upper Bound Values for Vehicle and Driver Characteristics Used in Performing Simulation Trials in VISSIM.
Sl. No. Vehicle and Driver Characteristics Operating Value Range Best performing simulation runs
1 Minimum Lateral Clearance (m) 0.25 - 1.0 5
2a Distributions for Desired Acceleration (m/s2) 0.5 - 4.4 5
2b Distributions for Maximum Acceleration (m/s2) 1.0 - 4.4 5
2c Distributions for Deceleration (m/s2) 2.5 - 8.0 5
3a Distributions for Desired Acceleration (m/s2) 0.5 - 4.4 5
3b Distributions for Maximum Acceleration (m/s2) 1.0 - 4.4 5
4 Minimum Look-ahead Distance (m) 10 - 50 5
5 Distributions for Maximum Acceleration (m/s2) 1.0 - 4.4 5
6 Distributions for Desired Acceleration (m/s2) 0.5 - 4.4 5
7a Distributions for Desired Speed (kmph) - Lower Bound 21.9 - 72.3 5
7b Distributions for Desired Speed (kmph) - Upper Bound 21.9 - 72.3 5
8 Minimum Look-back Distance (m) for car-following 10.0 - 50.0 5
9 Average Standstill Distance (m) for car-following 0.5 - 2.5 5
10 Additive Part of Desired Safety Distance (m) for car-following 0.2 - 2.0 5
11 Multiplicative Part of Desired Safety Distance (m) for car-following 0.2 - 3.0 5
12 Time-between Direction Changes (s) for overtaking 1.0 - 10.0 5
13 Minimum Longitudinal Speed (kmph) for lane change 1.1 - 3.6 5
14 Minimum Collision Time-gain for lateral driving behavior (s) 0.40 - 2.0 5
Total simulation runs in the first-level calibrations 90

Source: Authors own creation.

Table 2. A Partial Listing of the Normalized Database Used for Training the ANN Model.
Details on Data Set for Sensitivity Analysis for Vehicle and Driver Characteristics
First-level of Calibration Stage Sl. No. Minimum Lateral Clearances (m) Desired Accelerations at Desired Speed of 50 kmph (m/s2) Maximum Accelerations at Desired Speed of 50 kmph (m/s2) Deceleration Distribution (m/s2) Weighted Average of Speed Distribution Lower-Bounds (kmph) Weighted Average of Speed Distribution Upper-Bounds (kmph) Minimum Look-ahead Distances (m) Minimum Look-back Distances (m) Average Standstill Distances (m) Additive Part of Desired Safety Distances (m) Multiplicative Part of Desired Safety Distances (m) Time-Between Direction Changes (s) Minimum Longitudinal Speeds (kmph) Minimum Collision Time-gains (s) Mean Absolute Errors (%)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16)
Ini--tial 1.00 0.432 0.432 0.335 0.96 0.69 0.20 0.20 0.80 1.00 1.00 0.10 1.00 1.00 0.9653
1 0.50 0.432 0.432 0.335 0.96 0.69 0.20 0.20 0.80 1.00 1.00 0.10 1.00 1.00 0.9653
0.25 0.432 0.432 0.335 0.96 0.69 0.20 0.20 0.80 1.00 1.00 0.10 1.00 1.00 0.9653
0.75 0.432 0.432 0.335 0.96 0.69 0.20 0.20 0.80 1.00 1.00 0.10 1.00 1.00 0.9653
0.65 0.432 0.432 0.335 0.96 0.69 0.20 0.20 0.80 1.00 1.00 0.10 1.00 1.00 0.9653
0.85 0.432 0.432 0.335 0.96 0.69 0.20 0.20 0.80 1.00 1.00 0.10 1.00 1.00 0.9653
2a 0.50 0.159 0.432 0.335 0.96 0.69 0.20 0.20 0.80 1.00 1.00 0.10 1.00 1.00 0.9653
0.50 0.295 0.432 0.335 0.96 0.69 0.20 0.20 0.80 1.00 1.00 0.10 1.00 1.00 0.9653
0.50 0.409 0.432 0.335 0.96 0.69 0.20 0.20 0.80 1.00 1.00 0.10 1.00 1.00 0.9653
0.50 0.455 0.432 0.335 0.96 0.69 0.20 0.20 0.80 1.00 1.00 0.10 1.00 1.00 0.9653
0.50 0.114 0.432 0.335 0.96 0.69 0.20 0.20 0.80 1.00 1.00 0.10 1.00 1.00 0.9653
2b 0.50 0.159 0.295 0.335 0.96 0.69 0.20 0.20 0.80 1.00 1.00 0.10 1.00 1.00 0.9653
0.50 0.159 0.568 0.335 0.96 0.69 0.20 0.20 0.80 1.00 1.00 0.10 1.00 1.00 0.9653
0.50 0.159 0.705 0.335 0.96 0.69 0.20 0.20 0.80 1.00 1.00 0.10 1.00 1.00 0.9653
0.50 0.159 0.705 0.335 0.96 0.69 0.20 0.20 0.80 1.00 1.00 0.10 1.00 1.00 0.9653
0.50 0.159 0.250 0.335 0.96 0.69 0.20 0.20 0.80 1.00 1.00 0.10 1.00 1.00 0.9653
2c 0.50 0.159 0.295 0.334 0.96 0.69 0.20 0.20 0.80 1.00 1.00 0.10 1.00 1.00 0.9653
0.50 0.159 0.295 0.675 0.96 0.69 0.20 0.20 0.80 1.00 1.00 0.10 1.00 1.00 0.9653
0.50 0.159 0.295 0.738 0.96 0.69 0.20 0.20 0.80 1.00 1.00 0.10 1.00 1.00 0.9653
0.50 0.159 0.295 1.000 0.96 0.69 0.20 0.20 0.80 1.00 1.00 0.10 1.00 1.00 0.9653
0.50 0.159 0.295 0.313 0.96 0.69 0.20 0.20 0.80 1.00 1.00 0.10 1.00 1.00 0.9653
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
13 0.50 0.341 0.341 0.334 0.61 0.86 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.17 0.50 0.53 1.00 0.2948
0.50 0.341 0.341 0.334 0.61 0.86 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.17 0.50 0.83 1.00 0.3295
0.50 0.341 0.341 0.334 0.61 0.86 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.17 0.50 0.67 1.00 0.3295
0.50 0.341 0.341 0.334 0.61 0.86 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.17 0.50 0.42 1.00 0.3035
0.50 0.341 0.341 0.334 0.61 0.86 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.17 0.50 0.31 1.00 0.3064
14 0.50 0.341 0.341 0.334 0.61 0.86 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.17 0.50 0.53 0.29 0.2775
0.50 0.341 0.341 0.334 0.61 0.86 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.17 0.50 0.53 0.20 0.2948
0.50 0.341 0.341 0.334 0.61 0.86 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.17 0.50 0.53 0.40 0.3006
0.50 0.341 0.341 0.334 0.61 0.86 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.17 0.50 0.53 0.75 0.3266
0.50 0.341 0.341 0.334 0.61 0.86 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.17 0.50 0.53 0.55 0.2861

Source: Authors own creation.

Table 3. Details on Tests for Identifying the Ideal ANN Configuration.
Test Serial No. Number of Neurons in the Hidden Layers Mean Absolute Error (MAE) in Prediction(%) Number of training cycles for convergence
HiddenLayerNo: 1 HiddenLayerNo: 2 HiddenLayerNo: 3
1 15 0 0 3.8075 10751
2 14 0 0 3.7303 11407
3 13 0 0 3.9456 10276
*4 12 0 0 3.0979 11184
5 11 0 0 3.7925 11265
6 10 0 0 3.4415 10138
7 9 0 0 3.2023 11312
8 8 0 0 3.7263 10015
9 7 0 0 3.4304 10864
10 6 0 0 3.7916 10319
11 5 0 0 3.7277 9677
12 4 0 0 3.7169 6234
13 12 12 0 3.6959 5407
14 12 11 0 3.4819 4803
15 12 10 0 3.8747 3468
16 12 9 0 3.8354 6072
*17 12 8 0 3.4290 4021
18 12 7 0 3.4600 3548
19 12 6 0 3.6131 2984
20 12 5 0 4.3240 1353
21 12 4 0 3.9310 4506
22 12 3 0 5.4365 1231
23 12 2 0 5.3433 4619
24 12 8 8 3.5013 6229
25 12 8 7 3.0347 7672
26 12 8 6 3.5135 9181
27 12 8 5 4.2408 2670
*28 12 8 4 2.9404 5261
29 12 8 3 4.0352 2314
30 12 8 2 3.0703 16403
31 12 8 1 4.4979 3347

Source: Authors own creation.

Note: *Optimum ANN configurations for neurons organized in 1, 2, or 3 hidden layers. Target error = 0.1; Learning rate = 0.7; Momentum rate = 0.8; Number of neurons in the input layer = 14; Number of neurons in the output layer = 1.

Table 4. Details of MAE, GEH, and RNSE at 18 Mid-Block Sections after Stage 14 of First-Level of Calibrations.
Direction of Traffic Flow Simulated volume Observed volume Absolute Error (%) GEH Statistic RNSE Statistic
From To
Jyothi Hampankatta 465 516 9.9 2.30 2.25
Hampankatta Jyothi 431 464 7.1 1.56 1.53
PVS Bunts 282 293 3.8 0.65 0.64
Bunts PVS 239 301 20.6 3.77 3.57
Navabharat PVS 441 502 12.2 2.81 2.72
PVS Navabharat 464 474 2.1 0.46 0.46
Hampankatta Navabharat 382 445 14.2 3.10 2.99
Navabharat Hampankatta 357 420 15.0 3.20 3.07
Jyothi Bunts 343 404 15.1 3.16 3.03
Bunts Jyothi 378 394 4.1 0.81 0.81
Jyothi Balmatta 315 366 13.9 2.76 2.67
Balmatta Jyothi 476 517 7.9 1.84 1.80
Balmatta St. Theresa 132 142 7.0 0.85 0.84
St. Theresa Balmatta 174 161 8.1 1.00 1.02
Bendoorwell Balmatta 270 291 7.2 1.25 1.23
Balmatta Bendoorwell 275 336 18.2 3.49 3.33
Bendoorwell St. Theresa 241 241 0.0 0.00 0.00
St. Theresa Bendoorwell 205 220 6.8 1.03 1.01
MAE 9.6 1.89 1.83

Source: Authors own creation.

Table 5. Summary of the MAE and the GEH at each Stage of Refinement in the First-Level of Calibrations.
Stages of Refinement Mean Absolute Errors at the end of the stages (%) Mean GEH Statistic
Initial trial (default value) 33.4 7.06
Stage 1 33.4 7.06
Stages 2a, 2b, and 2c 33.4 7.06
Stages 3a and 3b 32.9 6.94
Stage 4 29.5 6.14
Stage 5 27.5 5.82
Stage 6 27.2 5.63
Stages 7a and 7b 24.5 5.12
Stage 8 22.4 4.65
Stage 9 20.1 4.08
Stage 10 13.8 2.74
Stage 11 10.3 2.05
Stage 12 10.3 2.01
Stage 13 10.2 1.97
Stage 14 9.6 1.89

Source: Authors own creation.

Table 6. Summary of Values of Vehicle and Driver Characteristics at the End of First and Second-Levels of Calibrations.
Sl. No. Vehicle and Driver Characteristics Calibrated Value
Car MTW Auto-rickshaw LCV Bus Truck
Vehicle and Driver Characteristics at the End of First Level of Calibrations
1 Minimum Lateral Clearances (m) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
2 Desired Accelerations at 50kmph (m/s2) 1.7 1.6 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4
3 Maximum Accelerations at 50kmph (m/s2) 1.8 1.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7
4 Deceleration Distributions (m/s2) 2.8 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.2 1.8
5 Desired Speed: Lower Bounds (kmph) 35 30 30 38 37 30
6 Desired Speed: Upper Bounds (kmph) 70 60 55 68 65 60
7 Minimum Look-ahead distances (m) 40 40 40 40 40 40
8 Minimum Look-back distances (m) 30 30 30 30 30 30
9 Average Stand Still Distances (m) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
10 Additive Part of Desired Safety Distances (m) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
11 Multiplicative Part of Desired Safety Distances (m) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
12 Time-Between Direction Changes (s) 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
13 Minimum Longitudinal Speeds (kmph) 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
14 Minimum Collision Time-gains (s) 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.57
Vehicle and Driver Characteristics Revised at the End of Second Level of Calibrations
1 Average Stand Still Distance (m) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
2 Minimum Look-ahead distance (m) 25 20 20 25 30 30
3 Desired Speed: Lower Bounds (kmph) 35 30 30 30 37 30

Source: Authors own creation.

Notes. MTW = Motorized two- wheelers, LCV = Light commercial vehicles of gross weight lesser than 7.5 metric tonnes.

Table 7. Computed Values of the Relative Importance of the Vehicle and Driver Characteristics Based on Sensitivity Analysis.
Vehicle and Driver Characteristics Final Computed Values of Relative Importance(%)
Average Standstill Distance (m) 36.03346781
Minimum Look-ahead Distance (m) 29.08247098
Desired Speed: Lower Bounds (kmph) 10.01939929
Additive Part of Desired Safety Distance (m) 6.018405862
Minimum Look-back Distance (m) 5.82585454
Desired Acceleration at Desired Speed of 50 kmph (m/s2) 4.047062691
Maximum Acceleration at Desired Speed of 50 kmph (m/s2) 3.425829983
Multiplicative Part of Desired Safety Distance (m) 1.990901583
Minimum Longitudinal Speed (kmph) 1.139688108
Minimum Collision Time-gain (s) 1.118960391
Desired Speed: Upper Bounds (kmph) 0.641713873
Minimum Lateral Clearance (m) 0.307529776
Time-Between Direction Change (s) 0.276678493
Deceleration Distribution (m/s2) 0.072036627

Source: Authors own creation.

Table 8. Details of MAE, GEH, and RNSE at 18 Mid-Block Sections for the Validated Model.
Direction of Traffic Flow Simulated Volume Observed Volume Absolute Error (%) GEH Statistic RNSE Statistic
From To
Jyothi Hampankatta 155 153 1.3 0.16 0.16
Hampankatta Jyothi 146 167 12.6 1.68 1.63
PVS Bunts 85 95 10.5 1.05 1.03
Bunts PVS 77 94 18.1 1.84 1.75
Navabharat PVS 147 164 10.4 1.36 1.33
PVS Navabharat 129 184 29.9 4.40 4.05
Hampankatta Navabharat 135 154 12.3 1.58 1.53
Navabharat Hampankatta 117 105 11.4 1.14 1.17
Jyothi Bunts 122 157 22.3 2.96 2.79
Bunts Jyothi 136 108 25.9 2.54 2.69
Jyothi Balmatta 106 115 7.8 0.86 0.84
Balmatta Jyothi 169 155 9.0 1.10 1.12
Balmatta St. Theresa 46 52 11.5 0.86 0.83
St. Theresa Balmatta 61 50 22.0 1.48 1.56
Bendoorwell Balmatta 99 91 8.8 0.82 0.84
Balmatta Bendoorwell 96 110 12.7 1.38 1.33
Bendoorwell St. Theresa 95 87 9.2 0.84 0.86
St. Theresa Bendoorwell 70 79 11.4 1.04 1.01
MAE 13.7 1.51 1.47

Source: Authors own creation.

Table 9. Calibrated Values for Characteristics later Refined at the End of the Second-Level of Calibrations, along with Comparisons to Related Studies in India, and Suggested Value Ranges for Simulation Trials.
Vehicle and Driver Characteristics Suggested Values Ranges for Simulation Calibrated Values after Second Level of Calibrations
Siddharth and Ramadurai (2013)* Mathew and Radhakrishnan (2010)† ThePresent Study‡ Siddharth and Ramadurai (2013)* Mathew and Radhakrishnan (2010)† ThePresent Study‡
Minimum Look-ahead Distances (m) 10 - 30 - 10 - 50 27.91 - 20§, 25§, 30§
Minimum Look-back Distances (m) 10 - 30 - 10 - 50 14.31 - 30
Average Standstill Distances (m) 1.0 - 2.0 0.0 - 4.0 0.5 - 2.5 1.0 1.33 0.4
Additive Part of Safety Distances (m) 0.1 - 2.0 0.0 - 4.0 0.2 - 2.0 0.2 0.28 0.4
Multiplicative Part of Safety Distances (m) 0.0 - 3.0 0.0 - 5.0 0.2 - 3.0 0.78 0.16 0.5

Source: Authors own creation.

Based on studies performed in Chennai city, India.

Based on studies performed in Trivandrum city, India.

Based on studies performed in Mangalore city, India.

Minimum look-ahead distance of 20m for motorized two-wheelers and auto-rickshaws, 25 for cars and LCVs, 30 for buses and trucks.