Figures and tables in The Impact of COVID-19 on Living Standards: Addressing the Challenges of Nowcasting Unprecedented Macroeconomic Shocks with Scant Data and Uncharted Economic Behavior

Abstract

We present a methodological approach with relatively low information requirements to quantify the impact of large, unprecedented macroeconomic shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic on living standards across the income distribution. The approach can be produced quickly and, contrary to other "fast-delivery" exercises, does not assume that income losses are proportional across the income distribution, a feature that is critical to understanding the impact on poverty and inequality. Our method is sufficiently flexible to refine the projected effects of the shock as more information becomes available. We illustrate with data from the four largest countries in Latin America: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico, and discuss the estimated effect of COVID-19 on inequality and poverty. We also present the guidelines for adapting our framework to different countries and economic shocks.

This article contains 3 figures and 13 tables.

Figures

**Figure 1.** Composition of Per Capita Household Gross Income. Notes: The dashed vertical line is the national poverty line and the bold vertical lines are—from left to right-- the $5.50 (moderate poor), $11.50 (lower-middle class) and $57.60 (middle class) per day international lines (in 2011 PPP), respectively. Source: Authors’ calculations based on ENIGH (2018), EPH (2019), GEIH (2019), PNADC (2019).

**Figure 2.** Non-anonymous Growth Incidence Curves Panel (a) “Concentrated Losses” Scenario, Panel (B) “Dispersed Losses” Scenario, Panel (c) “Actual Losses” Scenario. Notes: The dashed vertical line is the national poverty line and the bold vertical line is the $5.50 (moderate poor) per day international line (in 2011 PPP). Poverty lines based on the pre-pandemic distribution of income. Source: Authors’ calculations based on ENIGH (2018), EPH (2019), GEIH (2019), PNADC (2019).

**Figure A1.** Anonymous and Non-anonymous Growth Incidence Curves Panel (a) “Concentrated Losses” Scenario, Panel (b) “Dispersed Losses” Scenario, Panel (c) “Actual Losses” Scenario Notes: The dashed vertical line is the national poverty line and the bold vertical line is the $5.50 (moderate poor) per day international line (in 2011 PPP). Poverty lines based on the pre-pandemic distribution of income. Source: Authors’ calculations based on ENIGH (2018), EPH (2019), GEIH (2019), PNADC (2019).

Tables

Table 1. Illustration of the Income Losses Matrix (as % of total gross income)

% of income lost	10%	20%	30%	40%	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%
% households losing income
10%	0.3	0.5	0.8	1.1	1.3	1.6	1.9	2.1	2.4	2.7
20%	0.5	1.0	1.6	2.1	2.6	3.1	3.6	4.2	4.7	5.2
30%	0.8	1.6	2.4	3.2	4.0	4.8	5.6	6.4	7.2	8.0
40%	1.0	2.1	3.1	4.2	5.2	6.3	7.3	8.3	9.4	10.4
50%	1.3	2.6	3.9	5.2	6.5	7.8	9.1	10.4	11.7	13.0
60%	1.6	3.1	4.7	6.2	7.8	9.3	10.9	12.4	14.0	15.5
70%	1.8	3.7	5.5	7.3	9.2	11.0	12.8	14.7	16.5	18.3
80%	2.1	4.2	6.3	8.4	10.5	12.6	14.7	16.8	18.9	21.0
90%	2.4	4.8	7.1	9.5	11.9	14.3	16.7	19.0	21.4	23.8
100%	2.6	5.3	7.9	10.6	13.2	15.9	18.5	21.1	23.8	26.4

Notes: Highlighted cells correspond to losses similar to the loss projections by IMF published in May 2021 (IMF, 2021). The pink is the scenario where in addition to macroeconomic consistency, the share of households that have reported losing income corresponds to the available information.

Source: Authors’ calculations based on EPH (2019).

Table 2. Income Losses Matrix (as % of total gross income)

Panel (a) Argentina (urban)
% of income lost	10%	20%	30%	40%	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%
% households losing income
10%	0.3	0.5	0.8	1.1	1.3	1.6	1.9	2.1	2.4	2.7
20%	0.5	1.0	1.6	2.1	2.6	3.1	3.6	4.2	4.7	5.2
30%	0.8	1.6	2.4	3.2	4.0	4.8	5.6	6.4	7.2	8.0
40%	1.0	2.1	3.1	4.2	5.2	6.3	7.3	8.3	9.4	10.4
50%	1.3	2.6	3.9	5.2	6.5	7.8	9.1	10.4	11.7	13.0
60%	1.6	3.1	4.7	6.2	7.8	9.3	10.9	12.4	14.0	15.5
70%	1.8	3.7	5.5	7.3	9.2	11.0	12.8	14.7	16.5	18.3
80%	2.1	4.2	6.3	8.4	10.5	12.6	14.7	16.8	18.9	21.0
90%	2.4	4.8	7.1	9.5	11.9	14.3	16.7	19.0	21.4	23.8
100%	2.6	5.3	7.9	10.6	13.2	15.9	18.5	21.1	23.8	26.4
Panel (b) Brazil
% of income lost	10%	20%	30%	40%	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%
% households losing income
10%	0.3	0.5	0.8	1.1	1.3	1.6	1.8	2.1	2.4	2.6
20%	0.5	1.1	1.6	2.1	2.7	3.2	3.7	4.3	4.8	5.4
30%	0.8	1.6	2.4	3.2	4.1	4.9	5.7	6.5	7.3	8.1
40%	1.1	2.2	3.2	4.3	5.4	6.5	7.5	8.6	9.7	10.8
50%	1.3	2.7	4.0	5.4	6.7	8.1	9.4	10.7	12.1	13.4
60%	1.6	3.2	4.8	6.4	8.1	9.7	11.3	12.9	14.5	16.1
70%	1.9	3.8	5.6	7.5	9.4	11.3	13.2	15.0	16.9	18.8
80%	2.2	4.3	6.5	8.6	10.8	12.9	15.1	17.3	19.4	21.6
90%	2.4	4.8	7.3	9.7	12.1	14.5	17.0	19.4	21.8	24.2
100%	2.7	5.4	8.1	10.8	13.5	16.2	18.9	21.6	24.3	27.0
Panel (c) Colombia
% of income lost	10%	20%	30%	40%	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%
% households losing income
10%	0.3	0.7	1.0	1.4	1.7	2.0	2.4	2.7	3.1	3.4
20%	0.7	1.3	2.0	2.6	3.3	3.9	4.6	5.2	5.9	6.6
30%	1.0	2.0	2.9	3.9	4.9	5.9	6.9	7.8	8.8	9.8
40%	1.3	2.6	4.0	5.3	6.6	7.9	9.2	10.5	11.9	13.2
50%	1.7	3.3	5.0	6.6	8.3	9.9	11.6	13.3	14.9	16.6
60%	2.0	4.0	6.0	8.0	10.0	12.0	13.9	15.9	17.9	19.9
70%	2.3	4.7	7.0	9.4	11.7	14.0	16.4	18.7	21.1	23.4
80%	2.7	5.3	8.0	10.7	13.4	16.0	18.7	21.4	24.0	26.7
90%	3.0	6.0	9.0	12.0	15.0	18.0	21.1	24.1	27.1	30.1
100%	3.4	6.8	10.2	13.6	17.0	20.4	23.8	27.2	30.6	34.0
Panel (d) Mexico
% of income lost	10%	20%	30%	40%	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%
% households losing income
10%	0.3	0.6	1.0	1.3	1.6	1.9	2.3	2.6	2.9	3.2
20%	0.6	1.3	1.9	2.6	3.2	3.9	4.5	5.2	5.8	6.4
30%	1.0	1.9	2.9	3.9	4.9	5.8	6.8	7.8	8.7	9.7
40%	1.3	2.6	3.9	5.2	6.5	7.8	9.1	10.4	11.7	13.0
50%	1.6	3.3	4.9	6.5	8.1	9.8	11.4	13.0	14.6	16.3
60%	2.0	3.9	5.9	7.8	9.8	11.8	13.7	15.7	17.7	19.6
70%	2.3	4.6	6.9	9.1	11.4	13.7	16.0	18.3	20.6	22.8
80%	2.6	5.2	7.8	10.5	13.1	15.7	18.3	20.9	23.5	26.1
90%	2.9	5.9	8.8	11.7	14.7	17.6	20.5	23.5	26.4	29.3
100%	3.3	6.6	9.9	13.1	16.4	19.7	23.0	26.3	29.6	32.8

Source: Authors’ calculations based on ENIGH (2018), EPH (2019), GEIH (2019), PNADC (2019).

Table 3. COVID-19 New and Expanded Social Assistance Included in Simulations

Country	Program	Target population of new programs	Number of transfers	Amount of the transfers		Transfer as % of poverty lines		Total beneficiaries by the end of the year (administrative data)	Fiscal cost as % of GDP
Country	Program	Target population of new programs	Number of transfers	LCU	USD	National	$5.50 PPP		Fiscal cost as % of GDP
Argentina	Ingreso Familiar de Emergencia*	Vulnerable, Informal workers	3	ARG$10,000	US$148	113.5	253.3	9 million people	1.41%
	AUH / AUE	-	1	ARG$3,100	US$46	35.2	78.5	4.3 million people	0.07%
	memo: Total							memo: Total	1.48%
Brazil	Auxílio Emergencial*	Vulnerable, Informal workers	9	R$300-R$600	US$53-US$107	121.9	140.3	67 million people	3.32%
Brazil	memo: Total							memo: Total	3.32%
Colombia	Ingreso solidario*	Vulnerable, Informal workers	9	COL$160,000	US$42	65.9	58.8	3 million households	0.44%
	Bogotá solidaria*	Vulnerable, Informal workers	5	COL$233,000	US$60	95.9	85.6	521 thousand households	0.06%
	Familias en Acción	-	5	COL$145,000	US$38	59.7	53.2	2.6 million households	0.19%
	Jóvenes en Acción	-	5	COL$356,000	US$92	146.5	130.7	204 thousand people	0.04%
	Colombia Mayor	-	5	COL$160,000	US$42	65.9	58.8	1.7 million people	0.14%
	memo: Total							memo: Total	0.87%
Mexico	No additional social assistance

Notes: * refers to new social assistance programs that were introduced in the first months of lockdowns. For a more detailed description (and sources) see Table A2 in the Appendix. Amount of the transfer in (LCU/USD) prices of May 2020. The number of beneficiaries in the simulations do not necessarily correspond exactly to those shown above because in Argentina the simulations apply to urban areas only. The numerator of the fiscal cost is obtained by multiplying the size of the transfers by the number of times it was given and the number of beneficiaries; the denominator equals GDP per IMF projections for 2020 (IMF, 2021).

Table 4. Gini Coefficient

	Pre-Pandemic	Post-Pandemic Without Expanded Social Assistance		Post-Pandemic With Expanded Social Assistance
Country	Gini Coefficient	Gini Coefficient	Change (Gini points)	Gini Coefficient	Change (Gini points)
Panel (a) "Concentrated Losses" Scenario
Argentina (urban)	44.4	48.6	4.2	46.9	2.5
Brazil	55.4	57.0	1.6	53.3	-2.1
Colombia	55.0	58.2	3.1	56.9	1.9
Mexico	46.4	49.3	2.9	49.3	2.9
Panel (b) "Dispersed Losses" Scenario
Argentina (urban)	44.4	46.7	2.2	45.1	0.7
Brazil	55.4	56.1	0.8	52.5	-2.9
Colombia	55.0	56.0	0.9	54.8	-0.2
Mexico	46.4	47.7	1.3	47.7	1.3
Panel (c) "Actual Losses" Scenario
Argentina (urban)	44.4	47.0	2.6	45.3	0.9
Brazil	55.4	56.1	0.8	52.5	-2.9
Colombia	55.0	56.2	1.2	55.1	0.1
Mexico	46.4	47.9	1.5	47.9	1.5

Note: Change is the difference between post- and pre-pandemic Gini coefficients.

Source: Authors’ calculations based on ENIGH (2018), EPH (2019), GEIH (2019), PNADC (2019).

Table 5. Incidence of Poverty, National Poverty Line

	Pre-Pandemic	Post-Pandemic Without Expanded Social Assistance			Post-Pandemic With Expanded Social Assistance
Country	Headcount ratio (%)	Headcount ratio (%)	Change (pp.)	New poor (in millions)	Headcount ratio (%)	Change (pp.)	New poor (in millions)
Panel (a) "Concentrated Losses" Scenario
Argentina (urban)	35.5	42.8	7.2	2.0	40.3	4.8	1.4
Brazil	28.2	31.8	3.6	7.5	26.1	-2.0	-4.3
Colombia	31.8	36.9	5.2	2.5	34.8	3.0	1.5
Mexico	53.8	58.6	4.9	6.1	58.6	4.9	6.1
Panel (b) "Dispersed Losses" Scenario
Argentina (urban)	35.5	43.1	7.6	2.1	40.7	5.1	1.4
Brazil	28.2	31.0	2.9	6.0	24.9	-3.3	-6.8
Colombia	31.8	36.0	4.2	2.1	33.4	1.7	0.8
Mexico	53.8	59.3	5.5	6.9	59.3	5.5	6.9
Panel (c) "Actual Losses" Scenario
Argentina (urban)	35.5	43.0	7.4	2.1	40.7	5.2	1.5
Brazil	28.2	31.0	2.9	6.0	24.9	-3.3	-6.8
Colombia	31.8	36.4	4.6	2.3	34.1	2.3	1.1
Mexico	53.8	59.3	5.5	6.9	59.3	5.5	6.9

Notes: Change is the difference between post- and pre-pandemic headcount ratios. The number of new poor is calculated as the change in post- and pre-pandemic headcount ratios times the projected population for 2020 obtained from the World Bank World Development Indicators. pp: percentage points.

Source: Authors’ calculations based on ENIGH (2018), EPH (2019), GEIH (2019), PNADC (2019).

Table 6. Incidence of Poverty, $5.5 PPP Poverty Line

	Pre-Pandemic	Post-Pandemic Without Expanded Social Assistance			Post-Pandemic With Expanded Social Assistance
Country	Headcount ratio (%)	Headcount ratio (%)	Change (pp.)	New poor (in millions)	Headcount ratio (%)	Change (pp.)	New poor (in millions)
Panel (a) "Concentrated Losses" Scenario
Argentina (urban)	10.9	19.1	8.2	2.3	16.8	5.9	1.7
Brazil	25.4	28.9	3.5	7.4	22.2	-3.2	-6.7
Colombia	37.6	42.6	5.0	2.5	40.8	3.2	1.6
Mexico	34.9	41.6	6.8	8.5	41.6	6.8	8.5
Panel (b) "Dispersed Losses" Scenario
Argentina (urban)	10.9	16.5	5.6	1.6	13.0	2.1	0.6
Brazil	25.4	27.6	2.2	4.6	20.6	-4.7	-9.9
Colombia	37.6	42.1	4.5	2.2	40.3	2.7	1.3
Mexico	34.9	41.6	6.7	8.4	41.6	6.7	8.4
Panel (c) "Actual Losses" Scenario
Argentina (urban)	10.9	15.8	4.9	1.4	12.8	1.9	0.5
Brazil	25.4	27.6	2.2	4.6	20.6	-4.7	-9.9
Colombia	37.6	41.8	4.2	2.1	39.8	2.2	1.1
Mexico	34.9	41.3	6.5	8.1	41.3	6.5	8.1

Source: Authors’ calculations based on ENIGH (2018), EPH (2019), GEIH (2019), PNADC (2019).

Table 7. Income Mobility

	Post-Pandemic Without Expanded Social Assistance			Post-Pandemic With Expanded Social Assistance
Country	% of moderate poor who fall to poor	% of the vulnerable who fall to moderate poor or below	% of the middle class who fall to moderate poor or below	% of moderate poor who fall to poor	% of the vulnerable who fall to moderate poor or below	% of the middle class who fall to moderate poor or below
Panel (a) "Concentrated Losses" Scenario
Argentina (urban)	22.6	20.8	6.2	19.2	19.0	5.8
Brazil	10.2	8.9	2.7	6.8	6.9	1.9
Colombia	9.7	11.5	4.9	9.3	11.1	4.8
Mexico	15.2	15.1	3.7	15.2	15.1	3.7
Panel (b) "Dispersed Losses" Scenario
Argentina (urban)	27.5	21.9	0.0	7.8	13.0	0.0
Brazil	10.2	8.3	0.0	1.3	2.3	0.0
Colombia	15.8	14.2	0.0	10.2	10.7	0.0
Mexico	18.1	16.9	0.0	18.1	16.9	0.0
Panel (c) "Actual Losses" Scenario
Argentina (urban)	27.4	24.5	0.0	10.6	15.3	0.0
Brazil	10.2	8.3	0.0	1.3	2.3	0.0
Colombia	17.1	15.3	0.0	12.5	12.8	0.0
Mexico	21.0	17.3	0.0	21.0	17.3	0.0

Note: Income groups in terms of 2011 PPP are: poor: below $3.20; moderate poor: between $3.20 and below $5.50 per day; vulnerable: between $5.50 and below $11.50 per day; and middle class: between $11.50 and below $57.60 per day.

Source: Authors’ calculations based on ENIGH (2018), EPH (2019), GEIH (2019), PNADC (2019).

Table A1. Employment by Sector

Panel (a) Argentina (urban)
Sector	Not at risk	At risk	Total
Agriculture	65,109	0	65,109
Mining	36,897	12,281	49,178
Manufacturing	7,36,190	6,63,709	13,99,899
Electricity, gas and water supply	52,041	37,702	89,743
Construction	1,19,479	9,84,050	11,03,529
Retail and wholesale	5,93,180	15,84,484	21,77,664
Accommodation and food service	1,12,358	3,44,128	4,56,486
Transport	1,50,331	4,90,213	6,40,544
Information and communication	86,118	1,70,555	2,56,673
Financial services	1,78,675	88,681	2,67,356
Real estate	36,809	30,604	67,413
Professional activities	6,95,307	2,51,581	9,46,888
Public administration	10,16,020	0	10,16,020
Education	10,12,903	0	10,12,903
Health	7,93,233	0	7,93,233
Other sectors	3,49,785	14,04,260	17,54,045
Total	60,34,435	60,62,248	1,20,96,683
%	49.9%	50.1%
Panel (b) Brazil
Sector	Not at risk	At risk	Total
Agriculture	86,36,764	0	86,36,764
Mining	3,84,819	28,358	4,13,177
Manufacturing	39,96,924	69,10,053	1,09,06,977
Electricity, gas and water supply	7,44,746	1,53,773	8,98,519
Construction	3,21,999	64,93,117	68,15,116
Retail and wholesale	83,52,357	95,43,628	1,78,95,985
Accommodation and food service	3,85,260	52,36,263	56,21,523
Transport	26,41,323	21,94,322	48,35,645
Information and communication	12,41,353	1,02,909	13,44,262
Financial services	11,03,351	1,68,406	12,71,757
Real estate	70,257	4,76,066	5,46,323
Professional activities	40,62,780	34,81,562	75,44,342
Public administration	51,11,266	0	51,11,266
Education	65,88,520	0	65,88,520
Health	47,47,906	0	47,47,906
Other sectors	6,98,142	1,06,02,821	1,13,00,963
Total	4,90,87,767	4,53,91,278	9,44,79,045
%	52.0%	48.0%
Panel (c) Colombia
Sector	Not at risk	At risk	Total
Agriculture	35,15,167	0	35,15,167
Mining	1,95,612	1,222	1,96,834
Manufacturing	14,50,032	10,89,303	25,39,335
Electricity, gas and water supply	1,13,037	38,081	1,51,118
Construction	1,20,927	13,92,706	15,13,633
Retail and wholesale	16,32,476	28,15,331	44,47,807
Accommodation and food service	26,771	14,92,637	15,19,408
Transport	5,18,790	9,46,252	14,65,042
Information and communication	2,13,505	46,873	2,60,378
Financial services	3,05,304	26,567	3,31,871
Real estate	40,836	3,11,224	3,52,060
Professional activities	7,92,673	5,54,786	13,47,459
Public administration	7,11,302	0	7,11,302
Education	9,59,010	0	9,59,010
Health	9,56,935	0	9,56,935
Other sectors	2,05,906	16,88,689	18,94,595
Total	1,17,58,283	1,04,03,671	2,21,61,954
%	53.1%	46.9%
Panel (d) Mexico
Sector	Not at risk	At risk	Total
Agriculture	89,53,313	0	89,53,313
Mining	1,98,514	0	1,98,514
Manufacturing	40,98,366	54,70,030	95,68,396
Electricity, gas and water supply	2,20,675	655	2,21,330
Construction	3,48,183	44,77,639	48,25,822
Retail and wholesale	58,93,101	51,45,482	1,10,38,583
Accommodation and food service	1,81,228	47,54,290	49,35,518
Transport	8,13,780	16,28,415	24,42,195
Information and communication	4,70,479	0	4,70,479
Financial services	5,58,741	557	5,59,298
Real estate	3,77,231	108	3,77,339
Professional activities	13,51,674	31,126	13,82,800
Public administration	21,72,350	0	21,72,350
Education	28,18,952	0	28,18,952
Health	16,70,654	0	16,70,654
Other sectors	62,08,673	55,66,657	1,17,75,330
Total	3,63,35,914	2,70,74,959	6,34,10,873
%	57.3%	42.7%

Source: Authors’ calculations based on ENIGH (2018), EPH (2019), GEIH (2019), PNADC (2019).

Table A2. Description of Existing and New Social Assistance Programs by Country

Argentina

NEW Ingreso Familiar de Emergencia is an unconditional transitory cash transfer to informal and vulnerable workers between 18 and 65 years old during the COVID-19 pandemic. The beneficiaries are individuals, and each household can receive only one allowance. Beneficiaries received three monthly payments of ARG $10,000 from May and July. The transfer amount represents 113.5% and 253.3% of the national and $5.5 PPP per day poverty lines.
https://www.argentina.gob.ar/economia/medidas-economicas-COVID19/ingresofamiliardeemergencia

INCREASED Asignación Universal por Hijo is a conditional cash transfer program for children and adolescents (younger than 18 years old) living in poverty or vulnerability situations. The program includes conditions related to health and education obligations. The beneficiaries are individuals, and a household can receive up to 5 allowances. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the government announced a one-time extraordinary payment of ARG $3,100 in March. The transfer amount represents 35.2% and 78.5% of the national and $5.5 PPP per day poverty lines.
https://www.anses.gob.ar/asignacion-universal-por-hijo https://www.argentina.gob.ar/economia/medidas-economicas-COVID19/bonos/AUH-AUE

Brazil

NEW Auxílio Emergencial is an unconditional transitory cash transfer to informal workers, individual microentrepreneurs, self-employed, and beneficiaries of Bolsa Família during the COVID-19 pandemic. The beneficiaries are individuals, and there are no restrictions on the number of allowances per household. Beneficiaries received five monthly payments of R $600 from April to August, and four monthly payments at half the original amount from September to December. The original transfer amount represents 121.9% and 140.3% of the national and $5.5 PPP per day poverty lines.
https://www.caixa.gov.br/auxilio/PAGINAS/DEFAULT2.ASPX https://www.gov.br/cidadania/pt-br/servicos/sagi/relatorios/deolhonacidadania_3_2202.pdf

Colombia

NEW Ingreso Solidario is an unconditional transitory cash transfer program that aims to mitigate the situation of vulnerable households facing economic difficulties due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The beneficiaries of Ingreso Solidario are not obligated to any condition, but they must not be receiving any other social programs. The beneficiaries are households, and only one allowance per household is permitted. Beneficiarios received nine monthly payments of COL $160,000 from April to December. The program represents around 65.9% and 58.8% of the national and $5.5 PPP per day poverty lines.
https://ingresosolidario.dnp.gov.co/

NEW Bogotá Solidaria is an unconditional cash transfer program (from Bogotá’s Mayor Office) to support vulnerable and poor families in the city during the COVID-19 pandemic. The beneficiaries of Bogotá Solidario must not have any intra-household violence record. The beneficiaries are households, and only one allowance per household is permitted. Beneficiaries received five payments of COL $233,000. The program represents around 95.9% and 85.6% of the national and $5.5 PPP per day poverty lines.
https://rentabasicabogota.gov.co/

INCREASED Familias en Acción is a conditional cash transfer program for children and adolescents (younger than 18 years old) living under food insecurity conditions. The beneficiaries are individuals, and a household can receive up to 3 allowances. The program includes conditions related to health and education obligations. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the government announced five extraordinary payments of COL $145,000 delivered every two months between March and December. The program represents around 59.7% and 53.2% of the national and $5.5 PPP per day poverty lines.
https://prosperidadsocial.gov.co/sgpp/transferencias/familias-en-accion/ https://prosperidadsocial.gov.co/asi-vamos-contra-el-covid-19/

INCREASED Jóvenes en Acción is a conditional cash transfer program for young adults (between 16 to 24 years old) facing economic difficulties to continue or finish their studies. The program includes conditions related to eligibility criteria on other programs such as Familias en Accion and Red de la Superación de la Pobreza Extrema. The beneficiaries are individuals, and there are no restrictions on the number of allowances per household. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the government announced five-time extraordinary payments of COL $356,000 delivered every two months between March and December. The program represents around 146.5% and 130.7% of the national and $5.5 PPP per day poverty lines.
https://prosperidadsocial.gov.co/sgpp/transferencias/jovenes-en-accion/ https://prosperidadsocial.gov.co/asi-vamos-contra-el-covid-19/

INCREASED Colombia Mayor is an unconditional cash transfer program for older adults without a pension or who live in extreme poverty or indigence. The beneficiaries are individuals, and there are no restrictions on the number of allowances per household. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the government announced five-time extraordinary payments of COL $160,000 delivered every two months between March and December. The program represents around 65.9% and 58.8% of the national and $5.5 PPP per day poverty lines.
https://prosperidadsocial.gov.co/Noticias/disponible-pago-ordinario-y-extraordinario-para-beneficiarios-de-colombia-mayor/

Table A3. Gini Coefficient for Scenarios with Losses Similar to the Loss Projections by IMF (2021)

		Pre-Pandemic	Post-Pandemic Without Expanded Social Assistance		Post-Pandemic With Expanded Social Assistance
Country	Scenario	Gini Coefficient	Gini Coefficient	Change (Gini points)	Gini Coefficient	Change (Gini points)
Argentina (urban)	40% lose 90%	44.4	48.6	4.2	46.9	2.5
Argentina (urban)	50% lose 70%	44.4	47.7	3.3	46.0	1.6
Argentina (urban)	60% lose 60%	44.4	47.5	3.0	45.7	1.3
Argentina (urban)	70% lose 50%	44.4	47.0	2.6	45.3	0.9
Argentina (urban)	90% lose 40%	44.4	46.7	2.2	45.1	0.7
Brazil	20% lose 80%	55.4	57.0	1.6	53.3	-2.1
Brazil	30% lose 50%	55.4	56.4	1.1	52.7	-2.6
Brazil	40% lose 40%	55.4	56.4	1.0	52.7	-2.7
Brazil	50% lose 30%	55.4	56.2	0.8	52.5	-2.8
Brazil	80% lose 20%	55.4	56.1	0.8	52.5	-2.9
Colombia	20% lose 100%	55.0	58.2	3.1	56.9	1.9
Colombia	30% lose 70%	55.0	57.2	2.2	56.0	1.0
Colombia	40% lose 50%	55.0	56.6	1.6	55.5	0.4
Colombia	50% lose 40%	55.0	56.4	1.4	55.2	0.2
Colombia	70% lose 30%	55.0	56.2	1.2	55.1	0.1
Colombia	100% lose 20%	55.0	56.0	0.9	54.8	-0.2
Mexico	30% lose 80%	46.4	49.3	2.9	49.3	2.9
Mexico	40% lose 60%	46.4	48.6	2.2	48.6	2.2
Mexico	50% lose 50%	46.4	48.3	1.9	48.3	1.9
Mexico	60% lose 40%	46.4	47.9	1.5	47.9	1.5
Mexico	80% lose 30%	46.4	47.7	1.3	47.7	1.3

Notes: Change is the difference between post- and pre-pandemic Gini coefficients.

Source: Authors’ calculations based on ENIGH (2018), EPH (2019), GEIH (2019), PNADC (2019).

Table A4. Incidence of Poverty for with Losses Similar to the Loss Projections by IMF (2021)

		Pre-Pandemic	Post-Pandemic Without Expanded Social Assistance			Post-Pandemic With Expanded Social Assistance
Country	Scenario	Headcount ratio (%)	Headcount ratio (%)	Change (pp.)	New poor (in millions)	Headcount ratio (%)	Change (pp.)	New poor (in millions)
Panel (a) National Poverty Line
Argentina (urban)	40% lose 90%	35.5	42.8	7.2	2	40.3	4.8	1.4
Argentina (urban)	50% lose 70%	35.5	42.9	7.4	2.1	40.3	4.7	1.3
Argentina (urban)	60% lose 60%	35.5	43.1	7.6	2.1	40.6	5.1	1.4
Argentina (urban)	70% lose 50%	35.5	43	7.4	2.1	40.7	5.2	1.5
Argentina (urban)	90% lose 40%	35.5	43.1	7.6	2.1	40.7	5.1	1.4
Brazil	20% lose 80%	28.2	31.8	3.6	7.5	26.1	-2	-4.3
Brazil	30% lose 50%	28.2	31	2.8	5.8	25.2	-3	-6.2
Brazil	40% lose 40%	28.2	31.1	3	6.2	25.1	-3	-6.3
Brazil	50% lose 30%	28.2	30.9	2.7	5.6	24.8	-3.3	-6.9
Brazil	80% lose 20%	28.2	31	2.9	6	24.9	-3.3	-6.8
Colombia	20% lose 100%	31.8	36.9	5.2	2.5	34.8	3	1.5
Colombia	30% lose 70%	31.8	37.1	5.3	2.6	35	3.2	1.6
Colombia	40% lose 50%	31.8	36.5	4.7	2.3	34.4	2.6	1.3
Colombia	50% lose 40%	31.8	36.5	4.7	2.3	34.2	2.4	1.2
Colombia	70% lose 30%	31.8	36.4	4.6	2.3	34.1	2.3	1.1
Colombia	100% lose 20%	31.8	36	4.2	2.1	33.4	1.7	0.8
Mexico	30% lose 80%	53.8	58.6	4.9	6.1	58.6	4.9	6.1
Mexico	40% lose 60%	53.8	59	5.2	6.5	59	5.2	6.5
Mexico	50% lose 50%	53.8	59.5	5.7	7.1	59.5	5.7	7.1
Mexico	60% lose 40%	53.8	59.3	5.5	6.9	59.3	5.5	6.9
Mexico	80% lose 30%	53.8	59.3	5.5	6.9	59.3	5.5	6.9
Panel (b) $5.5 PPP Poverty Line
Argentina (urban)	40% lose 90%	10.9	19.1	8.2	2.3	16.8	5.9	1.7
Argentina (urban)	50% lose 70%	10.9	18	7.1	2	14.9	4	1.1
Argentina (urban)	60% lose 60%	10.9	17.5	6.6	1.9	13.9	3	0.9
Argentina (urban)	70% lose 50%	10.9	16.5	5.6	1.6	13	2.1	0.6
Argentina (urban)	90% lose 40%	10.9	15.8	4.9	1.4	12.8	1.9	0.5
Brazil	20% lose 80%	25.4	28.9	3.5	7.4	22.2	-3.2	-6.7
Brazil	30% lose 50%	25.4	27.9	2.6	5.4	21	-4.4	-9.1
Brazil	40% lose 40%	25.4	27.9	2.5	5.3	21	-4.4	-9.2
Brazil	50% lose 30%	25.4	27.5	2.1	4.5	20.6	-4.7	-9.9
Brazil	80% lose 20%	25.4	27.6	2.2	4.6	20.6	-4.7	-9.9
Colombia	20% lose 100%	37.6	42.6	5	2.5	40.8	3.2	1.6
Colombia	30% lose 70%	37.6	42.7	5.2	2.5	41.1	3.5	1.7
Colombia	40% lose 50%	37.6	42.3	4.8	2.3	40.6	3	1.5
Colombia	50% lose 40%	37.6	42.2	4.7	2.3	40.4	2.9	1.4
Colombia	70% lose 30%	37.6	42.1	4.5	2.2	40.3	2.7	1.3
Colombia	100% lose 20%	37.6	41.8	4.2	2.1	39.8	2.2	1.1
Mexico	30% lose 80%	34.9	41.6	6.8	8.5	41.6	6.8	8.5
Mexico	40% lose 60%	34.9	41.8	6.9	8.7	41.8	6.9	8.7
Mexico	50% lose 50%	34.9	42.1	7.3	9.1	42.1	7.3	9.1
Mexico	60% lose 40%	34.9	41.6	6.7	8.4	41.6	6.7	8.4
Mexico	80% lose 30%	34.9	41.3	6.5	8.1	41.3	6.5	8.1

Source: Authors’ calculations based on ENIGH (2018), EPH (2019), GEIH (2019), PNADC (2019).

Table A5. Squared Poverty Gap, National Poverty Line

	Pre-Pandemic	Post-Pandemic Without Expanded Social Assistance		Post-Pandemic With Expanded Social Assistance
Country	Squared poverty gap (%)	Squared poverty gap (%)	Change (pp.)	Squared poverty gap (%)	Change (pp.)
Panel (a) "Concentrated Losses" Scenario
Argentina (urban)	7.8	13.9	6.1	11.6	3.8
Brazil	9	10.9	2	5.9	-3
Colombia	8.9	14	5	12.2	3.3
Mexico	10.7	15.2	4.5	15.2	4.5
Panel (b) "Dispersed Losses" Scenario
Argentina (urban)	7.8	10.8	3	8.7	1
Brazil	9	9.7	0.7	5.1	-3.8
Colombia	8.9	10	1.1	8.5	-0.4
Mexico	10.7	13.3	2.6	13.3	2.6
Panel (c) "Actual Losses" Scenario
Argentina (urban)	7.8	11.1	3.3	9	1.2
Brazil	9	9.7	0.7	5.1	-3.8
Colombia	8.9	10.3	1.3	8.7	-0.2
Mexico	10.7	13.6	2.9	13.6	2.9

Note: Change is the difference between post- and pre-pandemic squared poverty gaps. pp: percentage points.

Source: Authors’ calculations based on ENIGH (2018), EPH (2019), GEIH (2019), PNADC (2019).

Table A6. Squared Poverty Gap, $5.5 PPP Poverty Line

	Pre-Pandemic	Post-Pandemic Without Expanded Social Assistance		Post-Pandemic With Expanded Social Assistance
Country	Squared poverty gap (%)	Squared poverty gap (%)	Change (pp.)	Squared poverty gap (%)	Change (pp.)
Panel (a) "Concentrated Losses" Scenario
Argentina (urban)	2.2	6.1	3.9	3.9	1.8
Brazil	7.7	9.5	1.8	4.7	-3
Colombia	11.1	16.2	5.1	14.4	3.2
Mexico	6	9.7	3.7	9.7	3.7
Panel (b) "Dispersed Losses" Scenario
Argentina (urban)	2.2	3	0.8	1.8	-0.4
Brazil	7.7	8.3	0.6	4	-3.7
Colombia	11.1	12.4	1.2	10.8	-0.4
Mexico	6	7.6	1.6	7.6	1.6
Panel (c) "Actual Losses" Scenario
Argentina (urban)	2.2	3.2	1	1.8	-0.3
Brazil	7.7	8.3	0.6	4	-3.7
Colombia	11.1	12.6	1.5	11	-0.1
Mexico	6	7.9	1.9	7.9	1.9

Note: Change is the difference between post- and pre-pandemic squared poverty gaps. pp: percentage points.

Source: Authors’ calculations based on ENIGH (2018), EPH (2019), GEIH (2019), PNADC (2019).