Figures and data in Are Energy Bills Squeezing People’s Spending?

Cite this article as: A. Colabella, L. Lavecchia, V. Michelangeli, R. Pico; 2025; Are Energy Bills Squeezing People’s Spending?; International Journal of Microsimulation; 18(1); 56-80. doi: 10.34196/ijm.00315

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5 figures and 9 tables

Figures

Figure 1

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Price elasticities of electricity demand at stratum level.

Figure 2

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Price elasticities of heating demand at stratum level.

Figure 3

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Baseline.. Notes: The figure shows the share of vulnerable households and the debt at risk in the baseline model. The rate of new non-performing household loans is defined as the ratio of non-performing loans to total household loans at the beginning of the period and it is calculated as an average of the quarters; the ratio is available until 2022.

Figure 4

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Microsimulation model with no price elasticity (case 1): Aggregate results.. Notes: Panel (a) shows how household consumption and disposable income change, on average, after the energy price shock. Panel (b) reports the share of vulnerable households and their debt (debt at risk). Disposable income is in euros, and results for Panel (b) are in percentage values.

Figure 5

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Microsimulation model with price elasticity, (case 2): Aggregate results.. Notes: Panel (a) shows how household consumption and disposable income change, on average, after the energyprice shock. Panel (b) reports the share of vulnerable households and their debt (debt at risk). Disposable incomeis in euros, and results for Panel (b) are in percentage values.

Tables

Table 1

Cumulated price variations (2020-2022)

	Electricity			Natural gas
Data source:	Regulated	NIC	Eurostat	Regulated	NIC	Eurostat
	market	Index		market	Index
Period	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
A. Percentage variations
2020-22	172	142	46	92	109	47
2020-21	31	15	4	22	21	6
2021-22	108	110	40	57	74	38
B. Absolute variations
2020-22	0.31	0.34	0.11	15.5	23.4	10.9
2020-21	0.05	0.04	0.01	3.8	4.4	1.4
2021-22	0.25	0.31	0.10	11.7	19.0	9.4

Notes: results are in percentage points for cumulated variations, €/kWh for electricity and €/Gj for natural gas in the case of absolute variations. The absolute variations for the NIC use Eurostat as base.

Table 2

Description of the variables used

Variable	Description	Source
	(a) Model to estimate price elasticities
$Q_{s, t}^{z}$	Electricity and heating quantity	HBS based on Faiella and Lavecchia (2021b)
$P_{t}^{z}$	Final retail price for electricity and natural gas	Eurostat, Istat and ARERA (own elaboration; see also Table 1)
$E_{s, t}$	Total expenditure of households	Own elaboration based on HBS
$β_{s}$	Short run price elasticities for electricity and heating demand	Own elaboration based on HBS and (Faiella and Lavecchia, 2021b)
	(b) Model of households’ financial vulnerability
$y_{i, t}$	Income	National accounts and Bank of Italy macro model
$M_{q, i, t}$	Mortgage	Bank of Italy’s statistical data warehouse and macroeconomic model
$c_{i, t}$	Consumer credit	Bank of Italy’s Statistical data warehouse and macro model
$r_{q, i, t}$	Mortgage interest rate	10-year IRS (for fixed-rate)Euribor (for variable rate)

Table 3

Strata of the population used in the analysis

Stratum ID	Households’ type
x02	Single person under the age of 35 or aged 35-64
x03	Single person aged 65 and over
x05	Childless couple with contact person under the age of 35 years old or aged 35-64
x06	Childless couple with contact person aged 65 and over
x07	Couple with 1 child
x08	Couple with 2 or more children
x10	Single parent
x11	Other types

where x=1,2,3 or 4 are the quartiles of the total equivalised expenditure distribution.

Table 4

Price elasticities of energy demand at stratum level

	Electricity		Heating
Strata	$\hat{β_{s}}$	$\hat{σ_{β}}$	$\hat{γ_{s}}$	$\hat{σ_{γ}}$
Single person under the age of 35 or aged 35-64, 1st quarter	-0.44	0.15	-1.04	0.18
Single person aged 65 and over, 1st quarter	-0.33	0.10	-0.76	0.13
Childless couple, < 35 years old or aged 35-64, 1st quarter	-0.67	0.16	-1.04	0.17
Childless couple, aged 65 and over, 1st quarter	-0.37	0.09	-0.90	0.13
Couple with 1 child, 1st quarter	-0.31	0.11	-0.69	0.12
Couple with 2 or more children, 1st quarter	-0.40	0.09	-0.70	0.11
Single parent, 1st quarter	-0.31	0.11	-0.98	0.12
Other types, 1st quarter	-0.23	0.13	-1.00	0.14
Single person under the age of 35 or aged 35-64, 2nd quarter	-0.24	0.12	-1.05	0.17
Single person aged 65 and over, 2nd quarter	-0.18	0.09	-0.87	0.13
Childless couple, < 35 years old or aged 35-64, 2nd quarter	-0.34	0.12	-0.84	0.15
Childless couple, aged 65 and over, 2nd quarter	-0.14	0.09	-0.83	0.14
Couple with 1 child, 2nd quarter	-0.16	0.09	-0.60	0.12
Couple with 2 or more children, 2nd quarter	-0.16	0.09	-0.60	0.11
Single parent, 2nd quarter	-0.13	0.11	-1.05	0.15
Other types, 2nd quarter	-0.29	0.16	-1.18	0.17
Single person under the age of 35 or aged 35-64, 3rd quarter	-0.16	0.11	-0.79	0.15
Single person aged 65 and over, 3rd quarter	-0.20	0.11	-0.91	0.12
Childless couple, < 35 years old or aged 35-64, 3rd quarter	-0.02	0.13	-1.03	0.14
Childless couple, aged 65 and over, 3rd quarter	-0.05	0.13	-0.98	0.15
Couple with 1 child, 3rd quarter	0.01	0.10	-0.79	0.17
Couple with 2 or more children, 3rd quarter	-0.04	0.09	-0.66	0.12
Single parent, 3rd quarter	-0.07	0.18	-0.95	0.16
Other types, 3rd quarter	0.05	0.20	-1.07	0.19
Single person under the age of 35 or aged 35-64, 4th quarter	-0.11	0.10	-0.77	0.11
Single person aged 65 and over, 4th quarter	-0.07	0.12	-0.92	0.14
Childless couple, < 35 years old or aged 35-64, 4th quarter	-0.07	0.14	-0.54	0.12
Childless couple, aged 65 and over, 4th quarter	-0.03	0.11	-1.01	0.15
Couple with 1 child, 4th quarter	-0.14	0.11	-0.62	0.13
Couple with 2 or more children, 4th quarter	-0.15	0.13	-0.84	0.16
Single parent, 4th quarter	-0.24	0.18	-1.20	0.16
Other types, 4th quarter	-0.11	0.21	-1.29	0.22

Table 5

Indicators of indebted households in 2020 (median value)

	Vulnerable HHs	Other indebted HHs
Age	49	49
Household Size (number of components)	3	3
Net Wealth (euros)	100,900	131,000
Financial Assets (euros)	3,000	10,000
Debt to income	3.6	0.7
Debt to assets	0.3	0.2
Income (euros)	15,147	34,474
Mortgage (euros)	52,000	16,000
Annual debt instalment (euros)	7,680	4,800
Monthly consumption expenses	1,158	1,416

Notes: Our calculations are based on SHIW data.

Table 6

Model with no price elasticity (case 1): Aggregate results.

	2020	2021	2022
	(1)	(2)	(3)
A. Expenses after /Expenses before
baseline		1.000	1.000
regulated market		1.016	1.049
NIC Index		1.011	1.055
Eurostat		1.003	1.024
B. Disposable income
baseline	26,882	27,884	29,652
regulated market	26,882	27,564	28,630
NIC Index	26,882	27,656	28,493
Eurostat	26,882	27,820	29,149
C. Share of vulnerable households
baseline	1.45	1.62	1.80
regulated market	1.45	1.54	1.82
NIC Index	1.45	1.55	1.85
Eurostat	1.45	1.53	1.74
D. Debt at risk
baseline	9.19	8.18	7.90
regulated market	9.19	8.25	8.62
NIC Index	9.19	8.18	8.75
Eurostat	9.19	8.07	8.15

Notes: Panel A shows households’ consumption average change after the energy price shock; Panel B reports disposable income in euros; Panels C and D include the share of vulnerable households and their debt at risk in percentage values.

Table 7

Model with price elasticity (case 2): Aggregate results.

	2020	2021	2022
	(1)	(2)	(3)
A. Expenses after /Expenses before
baseline		1.000	1.000
regulated market		1.005	1.019
NIC Index		1.004	1.020
Eurostat		1.001	1.008
B. Disposable income
baseline	26,882	27,884	29,652
regulated market	26,882	27,785	29,238
NIC Index	26,882	27,801	29,207
Eurostat	26,882	27,860	29,470
C. Share of vulnerable households
baseline	1.45	1.62	1.80
regulated market	1.45	1.54	1.71
NIC Index	1.45	1.54	1.72
Eurostat	1.45	1.59	1.72
D. Debt at risk
baseline	9.30	8.18	7.90
regulated market	9.30	8.10	8.02
NIC Index	9.30	8.10	8.06
Eurostat	9.30	8.06	7.91

Notes: Panel A shows households’ consumption average change after the energy price shock; Panel B reports disposable income in euros; Panels C and D include the share of vulnerable households and their debt at risk in percentage values.

Table 8

Model with price elasticity (case 2): heterogeneity in expenses and disposable income.

	Expenses after/Expenses before			Disposable income
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
	Geographical area
	North	Center	South	North	Center	South
	2020
baseline				31,161	28,138	20,094
	2021
baseline	1.000	1.000	1.000	32,341	29,201	20,813
regulated market	1.003	1.004	1.006	32,239	29,107	20,717
NIC Index	1.004	1.004	1.005	32,255	29,123	20,734
Eurostat	1.001	1.001	1.001	32,316	29,178	20,790
	2022
baseline	1.000	1.000	1.000	34,414	31,063	22,097
regulated market	1.017	1.017	1.022	33,991	30,661	21,688
NIC Index	1.017	1.018	1.024	33,966	30,633	21,646
Eurostat	1.007	1.008	1.010	34,226	30,889	21,917
	Number of household components
	1-2	3	4+	1-2	3	4+
	2020
baseline				21,280	33,598	37,186
	2021
baseline	1.000	1.000	1.000	22,080	34,858	38,543
regulated market	1.005	1.005	1.005	22,000	34,738	38,412
NIC Index	1.004	1.004	1.004	22,016	34,754	38,429
Eurostat	1.001	1.001	1.001	22,062	34,828	38,510
	2022
baseline	1.000	1.000	1.000	23,488	37,066	40,969
regulated market	1.018	1.020	1.019	23,146	36,560	40,429
NIC Index	1.018	1.023	1.022	23,140	36,492	40,355
Eurostat	1.008	1.010	1.009	23,348	36,831	40,711
	Age classes
	15-39	40-65	66+	15-39	40-65	66+
	2020
baseline				27,611	30,218	21,803
	2021
baseline	1.000	1.000	1.000	27,970	31,569	22,959
regulated market	1.005	1.005	1.005	27,870	31,461	22,874
NIC Index	1.004	1.004	1.004	27,885	31,477	22,891
Eurostat	1.001	1.001	1.001	27,945	31,542	22,939
	2022
baseline	1.000	1.000	1.000	29,111	33,572	24,749
regulated market	1.018	1.018	1.019	28,703	33,120	24,382
NIC Index	1.020	1.020	1.020	28,666	33,068	24,378
Eurostat	1.008	1.008	1.008	28,925	33,364	24,599

Notes: Columns 1-3 show household consumption average change after the energy price shock. Columns 4-6 report disposable income in euros.

Table 9

Model with price elasticity (case 2): heterogeneity in financial vulnerability.

	Share of vulnerable households			Debt at risk
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
	Geographical area
	North	Center	South	North	Center	South
	2020
baseline	1.41	1.45	1.52	8.86	6.51	16.51
	2021
baseline	1.50	1.08	2.12	7.36	4.85	16.30
regulated market	1.30	1.11	2.14	7.36	4.41	16.43
NIC Index	1.30	1.11	2.14	7.36	4.31	16.42
Eurostat	1.43	1.08	2.12	7.34	4.36	16.32
	2022
baseline	1.50	1.38	2.49	6.52	5.25	16.03
regulated market	1.31	1.39	2.48	6.58	5.18	16.60
NIC Index	1.31	1.39	2.48	6.62	5.20	16.66
Eurostat	1.29	1.39	2.53	6.51	5.09	16.32
	Number of household components
	1-2	3	4+	1-2	3	4+
	2020
baseline	0.80	2.13	2.77	8.69	9.87	9.45
	2021
baseline	1.28	1.62	2.63	9.35	7.57	7.36
regulated market	1.11	1.64	2.73	8.99	7.61	7.48
NIC Index	1.11	1.64	2.73	8.99	7.61	7.48
Eurostat	1.21	1.63	2.67	9.01	7.58	7.38
	2022
baseline	1.40	2.16	2.68	9.68	7.37	6.47
regulated market	1.20	2.19	2.80	9.57	7.52	6.77
NIC Index	1.19	2.19	2.83	9.56	7.58	6.84
Eurostat	1.24	2.17	2.73	9.50	7.45	6.60
	Age classes
	15-39	40-65	66+	15-39	40-65	66+
	2020
baseline	2.66	1.95	0.26	12.36	7.70	13.38
	2021
baseline	2.17	2.29	0.56	10.81	7.34	6.36
regulated market	2.17	2.32	0.30	10.82	7.28	5.63
NIC Index	2.17	2.32	0.30	10.82	7.28	5.63
Eurostat	2.17	2.29	0.46	10.81	7.19	6.11
2022
baseline	2.20	2.56	0.73	11.27	7.05	5.62
regulated market	2.51	2.50	0.49	12.42	6.96	5.02
NIC Index	2.51	2.51	0.49	12.46	7.00	5.02
Eurostat	2.30	2.57	0.48	11.64	7.01	5.01

Notes: The share of vulnerable households and the debt at risk are in percentage values.

Data and code availability

Household Budget Survey - publicly available at the website: https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/180358. Survey of Household Income and Wealth - Anonymised survey data are distributed for research purposes only: https://www.bancaditalia.it/statistiche/tematiche/indagini-famiglie-imprese/bilanci-famiglie/distribuzione-microdati/index.html. The codes are properties owned by the Bank of Italy.

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Mendeley

Price elasticities of electricity demand at stratum level.

Price elasticities of heating demand at stratum level.

Cumulated price variations (2020-2022)

Description of the variables used

Strata of the population used in the analysis

Price elasticities of energy demand at stratum level

Indicators of indebted households in 2020 (median value)

Model with no price elasticity (case 1): Aggregate results.

Model with price elasticity (case 2): Aggregate results.

Model with price elasticity (case 2): heterogeneity in expenses and disposable income.

Model with price elasticity (case 2): heterogeneity in financial vulnerability.

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