SimPaths: An open-source microsimulation model for life course analysis
- Centre for Microsimulation and Policy Analysis, United Kingdom
- MRC/CSO Social & Public Health Sciences Unit, United Kingdom
Cite this article
as: P. Bronka, J. van de Ven, D. Kopasker, S. Vittal Katikireddi, M. Richiardi; 2025; SimPaths: An open-source microsimulation model for life course analysis; International Journal of Microsimulation; 18(1); 95-133.
doi: 10.34196/ijm.00318
Figures
Figure 1
Structure and order of processes modelled in SimPaths.
Figure 2
Student status.
Figure 3
Educational attainment
Figure 4
General health score, men.
Figure 5
General health score, women.
Figure 6
Psychological distress, men.
Figure 7
Psychological distress, women.
Figure 8
Partnership status.
Figure 9
Number of children.
Figure 10
Activity status.
Figure 11
Employment rates, men.
Figure 12
Employment rates, women.
Figure 13
Real wages, trend.
Figure 14
Real wages, distribution.
Figure 15
Hours worked.
Figure 16
Gross income, trend.
Figure 17
Gross income, distribution.
Figure 18
Income sources, value.
Figure 19
Income sources, share.
Figure 20
Equivalised disposable income.
Figure 21
Disposable income, distribution.
Figure 22
Poverty.
Figure 23
Inequality.
Figure 24
Correlations.
Tables
Table 1
List of modules and estimated processes.
| Module | Process |
|---|---|
| Ageing | Age increases. |
| Probability of leaving the parental home for those who have left education. (Students stay in the parental home). | |
| Education | Probability of remaining in education for those who have always been in education without interruptions. |
| Probability of returning to education for those who had left school. | |
| Level of education for those leaving education. | |
| Health | Self-rated health status for those in continuous education. |
| Self-rated health status for those not in continuous education (out of education or returned having left education in the past). | |
| Probability of becoming long-term sick or disabled for those not in continuous education. | |
| (Mental Health (1)) Level of psychological distress on GHQ-12 Likert scale and binary case-based indicator of psychological distress. | |
| (Mental Health (2)) Effect of exposure to employment-state transitions, household income change, and poverty for individuals aged 25 – 64 on psychological distress (GHQ-12). | |
| Family composition | Probability of entering a partnership for those in continuous education. |
| Probability of entering a partnership for those not in continuous education. | |
| Probability of partnership break-up. | |
| Probability of giving birth to a child. | |
| Social care | Probability of needing care for individuals over an age threshold. |
| Probability of receiving care for individuals under an age threshold with a disability or long-standing illness or over the age threshold, distinguished by formal, partner, son, daughter, and other providers. | |
| Hours of care for those in receipt of care, and financial cost for those receiving formal care. | |
| Probability of providing informal social care. | |
| Hours of informal social care, among those providing care. | |
| Investment income | Probability of retiring for single individuals. |
| Probability of retiring for partnered individuals. | |
| Probability of receiving capital income for those in continuous education. | |
| Probability of receiving capital income for those not in continuous education. | |
| Amount of capital income for those in continuous education. | |
| Amount of capital income for those not in continuous education. | |
| Amount of pension income for those who are retired and were not retired in the previous year. | |
| Labour income | Heckman corrected wage equation; females not employed last period. |
| Heckman corrected wage equation; males not employed last period. | |
| Heckman corrected wage equation; females employed last period. | |
| Heckman corrected wage equation; males employed last period. | |
| Hours worked, single males. | |
| Hours worked, single females. | |
| Hours worked, single male adult children. | |
| Hours worked, single female adult children. | |
| Hours worked, males with dependent partner. | |
| Hours worked, females with dependent partner. | |
| Hours worked, couples. | |
| Disposable income | Benefit recipiency indicator. |
| Amount of disposable income. | |
| Consumption & saving | Consumption. |
| Home ownership. | |
| Savings and assets. | |
| Statistical display | Evaluate summary statistics for simulated population. |
Table 2
Relationship between state variables in SimPaths.
| Dependent variable | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Control variable | student status | education level | health status | mental health | disability status | partnership status | fertility | childcare cost | home owner | retirement status | pension income (£) | capital income (£) | low wage offer | potential wage (£) | hours worked | need social care | receive social care | type of care received | amount of care received | provide social care | amount of care provided |
| gender | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | |
| age | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | ||
| education | l | l | c | c | c | c,l | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c |
| maternal education | c | c | l | c | |||||||||||||||||
| paternal education | c | c | c | ||||||||||||||||||
| partnership status | l | c,l | l | l | c,l | c | l | c | l | l | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | ||||
| number of children | l | l | l | l | l | l | c | l | l | l | c | ||||||||||
| age of children | l | l | l | c | |||||||||||||||||
| health status | l | l | c,l | c,l | c | l | l | l | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | ||||||
| mental health | l | ||||||||||||||||||||
| disability status | l | l | l | l | c | c | |||||||||||||||
| need social care | l | ||||||||||||||||||||
| receive social care | l | ||||||||||||||||||||
| type of care received | l | c | |||||||||||||||||||
| amount of care received | |||||||||||||||||||||
| provide social care | l | c | |||||||||||||||||||
| amount of care provided | |||||||||||||||||||||
| activity status | l | l | c,l | l | l | c | l | l | l | l | l | c | |||||||||
| hours worked | c | c,l | |||||||||||||||||||
| disposable income (£) | l | c,l | l | l | l | l | c | ||||||||||||||
| employment income (£) | l | ||||||||||||||||||||
| benefit income (£) | c | ||||||||||||||||||||
| capital income (£) | l | l | l,l2 | ||||||||||||||||||
| pension income (£) | l | l | l, l2 | l,l2 | |||||||||||||||||
| potential wage (£) | l | l | l | l | |||||||||||||||||
| home owner | c | l | |||||||||||||||||||
| region | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | |
| year | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | |||||||||
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Note: Each column reports the controls used to update a specific individual characteristics.
Data and code availability
The SimPaths model code and connected simulation libraries JAS-mine Core and JAS-mine GUI are open-source, licensed under the EUPL-1.2 licence, and distributed freely through GitHub (SimPaths: https://github.com/centreformicrosimulation/SimPaths; JAS-mine: https://github.com/jasmineRepo). Some of the data used by the model is available only for scientific research and upon registration. See
https://www.understandingsociety.ac.uk/documentation/access-data/ for access conditions to Understanding Society survey (End User Licence version is required) and https://www.microsimulation.ac.uk/ukmod/access/ for access conditions to UKMOD.
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