This article contains 5 figures and 8 tables.
Figures





Tables
| Pre-COVID-19 | Post-COVID-19 scenario (without policy responses) | Post-COVID-19 scenario (with policy responses) | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st quarter 2020 | 1 quarter ahead | 2 quarters ahead | 3 quarters ahead | 1 quarter ahead | 2 quarters ahead | 3 quarters ahead | |||||||
| Decile | [1] | [2] | [3] | [4] | [5] | [6] | [7] | [8] | [9] | [10] | [11] | [12] | [13] |
| Level | Level | Level | Change [4] - [1] (in %) | Level | Change [6] - [2] (in %) | Level | Change [8] - [2] (in %) | Level | Change [10] - [1] (in %) | Level | Change [12] - [6] (in %) | ||
| 1 | 2841.8 | 1974.0 | 2396.1 | -15.69 | 2387.2 | 20.9 | 2842.7 | 44.0 | 3205.8 | 12.8 | 2977.3 | 24.7 | |
| 2 | 5822.4 | 4250.3 | 5004.4 | -14.05 | 4813.7 | 13.3 | 4924.5 | 15.9 | 5623.7 | -3.4 | 5272.9 | 9.5 | |
| 3 | 8189.0 | 6176.9 | 7258.7 | -11.36 | 6884.8 | 11.5 | 6762.2 | 9.5 | 7777.8 | -5.0 | 7216.8 | 4.8 | |
| 4 | 10367.5 | 7807.2 | 9200.6 | -11.26 | 8641.3 | 10.7 | 8294.3 | 6.2 | 9628.1 | -7.1 | 8882.4 | 2.8 | |
| 5 | 12978.9 | 10347.1 | 11763.7 | -9.36 | 11096.3 | 7.2 | 10769.7 | 4.1 | 12139.6 | -6.5 | 11302.5 | 1.9 | |
| 6 | 16019.6 | 12918.2 | 14818.0 | -7.50 | 13599.7 | 5.3 | 13262.0 | 2.7 | 15125.3 | -5.6 | 13778.4 | 1.3 | |
| 7 | 19789.5 | 16368.6 | 18590.6 | -6.06 | 17035.5 | 4.1 | 16628.7 | 1.6 | 18830.7 | -4.8 | 17201.9 | 1.0 | |
| 8 | 25037.3 | 21413.7 | 23702.7 | -5.33 | 21507.7 | 0.4 | 21645.3 | 1.1 | 23917.8 | -4.5 | 21648.2 | 0.7 | |
| 9 | 33516.6 | 28733.5 | 32248.0 | -3.78 | 28544.9 | -0.7 | 28899.3 | 0.6 | 32393.6 | -3.4 | 28632.5 | 0.3 | |
| 10 | 64559.5 | 54499.1 | 62174.1 | -3.69 | 53405.3 | -2.0 | 54617.7 | 0.2 | 62283.2 | -3.5 | 53458.7 | 0.1 | |
| All | 19914.0 | 16450.4 | 18717.4 | -6.01 | 16793.1 | 2.1 | 16866.1 | 2.5 | 19094.2 | -4.1 | 17038.6 | 1.5 | |
Source: Authors’ own calculations based on Ministry of Production and Labor and EPH-INDEC. Notes: In pesos and percentage change. Deciles of per capita income. Workers in Argentina benefit from a wage bonus, aguinaldos, that is paid twice a year in June and December. Therefore, they are registered and included in the first and third quarters of our simulations but not in the second and fourth ones. Thus, to provide an accurate comparison, the pre-COVID-19 scenario should be compared with the second-quarter-ahead scenario. This is valid for both the scenario with and without policy responses.
| Pre-COVID-19 | Post-COVID-19 scenario (without policy responses) | Post-COVID-19 scenario (with policy responses) | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st quarter 2020 | 1 quarter ahead | 2 quarters ahead | 3 quarters ahead | 1 quarter ahead | 2 quarters ahead | 3 quarters ahead | |||||||
| Sector | [1] | [2] | [3] | [4] | [5] | [6] | [7] | [8] | [9] | [10] | [11] | [12] | [13] |
| Level | Level | Level | Change [4] - [1] (in %) | Level | Change [6] - [2] (in %) | Level | Change [8] - [2] (in %) | Level | Change [10] - [1] (in %) | Level | Change [12] - [6] (in %) | ||
| Primary activities | 35381.3 | 21090.5 | 30087.9 | -15.0 | 26230.8 | 24.4 | 21475.7 | 1.8 | 30381.8 | -14.1 | 26371.9 | 0.5 | |
| Manufacturing | 19020.6 | 15046.6 | 17550.6 | -7.7 | 15612.8 | 3.8 | 15475.1 | 2.8 | 17934.3 | -5.7 | 15805.1 | 1.2 | |
| Construction | 14493.5 | 11537.6 | 13414.3 | -7.4 | 12220.9 | 5.9 | 12143.8 | 5.3 | 13973.7 | -3.6 | 12508.1 | 2.3 | |
| Commerce | 18401.6 | 14723.3 | 17100.0 | -7.1 | 15525.3 | 5.4 | 15222.0 | 3.4 | 17555.6 | -4.6 | 15757.6 | 1.5 | |
| Hotels and rest. | 17049.4 | 12384.3 | 15147.9 | -11.2 | 13652.5 | 10.2 | 12929.2 | 4.4 | 15621.6 | -8.4 | 13863.4 | 1.5 | |
| Transp. and com. | 24533.3 | 19042.1 | 22514.4 | -8.2 | 19857.1 | 4.3 | 19379.4 | 1.8 | 22809.8 | -7.0 | 20001.7 | 0.7 | |
| Financial serv. | 28750.7 | 23060.5 | 26614.6 | -7.4 | 23550.0 | 2.1 | 23382.0 | 1.4 | 26895.2 | -6.5 | 23663.0 | 0.5 | |
| Education | 27983.4 | 23147.5 | 26406.0 | -5.6 | 22707.2 | -1.9 | 23274.8 | 0.5 | 26517.7 | -5.2 | 22749.4 | 0.2 | |
| Social-health serv. | 28959.7 | 24465.7 | 27630.8 | -4.6 | 23864.5 | -2.5 | 24641.0 | 0.7 | 27787.5 | -4.0 | 23940.1 | 0.3 | |
| Domestic serv. | 12080.5 | 9108.9 | 10891.3 | -9.8 | 9969.3 | 9.4 | 9935.1 | 9.1 | 11662.2 | -3.5 | 10285.2 | 3.2 | |
| Other serv. | 21463.2 | 17921.9 | 20225.8 | -5.8 | 18127.4 | 1.1 | 18367.1 | 2.5 | 20634.8 | -3.9 | 18318.0 | 1.1 | |
| All | 24460.2 | 19423.3 | 22737.1 | -7.0 | 19843.0 | 2.2 | 19819.1 | 2.0 | 23093.7 | -5.6 | 20004.7 | 0.8 | |
Source: Authors’ own calculations based on Ministry of Production and Labor and EPH-INDEC. Notes: In pesos and percentage change. Deciles of per capita income. Workers in Argentina benefit from a wage bonus, aguinaldos, that is paid twice a year in June and December. Therefore, they are registered and included in the first and third quarters of our simulations but not in the second and fourth ones. Thus, to provide an accurate comparison, the pre-COVID-19 scenario should be compared with the second-quarter-ahead scenario. This is valid for both the scenario with and without policy responses.
| Pre-COVID-19 | Post-COVID-19 scenario (without policy responses) | Post-COVID-19 scenario (with policy responses) | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st quarter 2020 | 1 quarter ahead | 2 quarters ahead | 3 quarters ahead | 1 quarter ahead | 2 quarters ahead | 3 quarters ahead | ||||||||
| Sector | Group | [1] | [2] | [3] | [4] | [5] | [6] | [7] | [8] | [9] | [10] | [11] | [12] | [13] |
| Level | Level | Level | Change [4] - [1] (in %) | Level | Change [6] - [2] (in %) | Level | Change [8] - [2] (in %) | Level | Change [10] - [1] (in %) | Level | Change [12] - [6] (in %) | |||
| Panel A. Indigence, poverty, and inequality indicators | ||||||||||||||
| Extreme poverty | ||||||||||||||
| FGT (0) | 8.6 | 18.0 | 12.5 | 45.3 | 13.3 | -26.3 | 15.3 | -14.8 | 10.0 | 16.6 | 11.2 | -15.3 | ||
| FGT (1) | 3.2 | 10.1 | 6.1 | 90.9 | 6.1 | -40.3 | 7.1 | -30.4 | 4.1 | 28.9 | 4.8 | -20.2 | ||
| FGT (2) | 1.9 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 123.7 | 4.2 | -46.1 | 4.5 | -42.4 | 2.5 | 31.0 | 3.3 | -20.6 | ||
| Moderate poverty | ||||||||||||||
| FGT (0) | 34.6 | 45.6 | 39.2 | 13.5 | 43.3 | -5.2 | 43.8 | -4.0 | 37.3 | 7.9 | 42.0 | -3.0 | ||
| FGT (1) | 13.6 | 22.9 | 17.7 | 29.7 | 19.0 | -16.9 | 20.2 | -11.7 | 15.5 | 13.4 | 17.5 | -7.9 | ||
| FGT (2) | 7.6 | 15.6 | 11.1 | 46.0 | 11.6 | -25.5 | 12.6 | -18.9 | 8.9 | 17.7 | 10.2 | -12.0 | ||
| Inequality | ||||||||||||||
| Gini | 0.441 | 0.465 | 0.455 | 3.1 | 0.444 | -4.7 | 0.465 | -0.1 | 0.450 | 1.9 | 0.435 | -2.0 | ||
| Theil | 0.345 | 0.382 | 0.366 | 6.0 | 0.347 | -9.1 | 0.381 | -0.2 | 0.357 | 3.5 | 0.333 | -4.0 | ||
| ATK (0) | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | |||||||
| ATK (0.5) | 0.160 | 0.181 | 0.171 | 6.9 | 0.162 | -10.4 | 0.180 | -0.4 | 0.167 | 4.2 | 0.154 | -4.7 | ||
| ATK (1) | 0.300 | 0.347 | 0.323 | 7.9 | 0.306 | -11.8 | 0.344 | -0.8 | 0.315 | 5.1 | 0.289 | -5.5 | ||
| ATK (2) | 0.546 | 0.645 | 0.596 | 9.0 | 0.562 | -12.9 | 0.625 | -3.1 | 0.582 | 6.4 | 0.525 | -6.7 | ||
| Panel B. Poverty and inequality indicators, by gender | ||||||||||||||
| Moderate poverty | ||||||||||||||
| Poverty | Head male | 31.8 | 43.3 | 36.4 | 14.3 | 41.3 | -4.6 | 41.4 | -4.5 | 34.3 | 8.0 | 40.2 | -2.9 | |
| Incidence | Head female | 38.6 | 49.0 | 43.4 | 12.5 | 46.1 | -5.9 | 47.4 | -3.4 | 41.6 | 7.9 | 44.6 | -5.9 | |
| Population | 34.6 | 45.6 | 39.2 | 13.5 | 43.3 | -5.2 | 43.8 | -4.0 | 37.3 | 7.9 | 42.0 | -4.2 | ||
| Inequality | ||||||||||||||
| Gini | Head male | 0.429 | 0.444 | 0.439 | 2.4 | 0.428 | -3.5 | 0.446 | 0.3 | 0.435 | 1.4 | 0.420 | -5.6 | |
| Head female | 0.458 | 0.496 | 0.478 | 4.2 | 0.465 | -6.2 | 0.492 | -0.9 | 0.470 | 2.5 | 0.454 | -7.6 | ||
| Population | 0.441 | 0.465 | 0.455 | 3.1 | 0.444 | -4.7 | 0.465 | -0.1 | 0.450 | 1.9 | 0.435 | -6.5 | ||
| Panel C. Number of poor | ||||||||||||||
| Head male | 5,376,778 | 7,324,550 | 6,147,894 | 771,116 | 6,986,696 | -337,854 | 6,997,154 | -327,396 | 5,804,325 | 427,547 | 6,795,035 | -191,661 | ||
| Head female | 4,489,291 | 5,698,983 | 5,045,405 | 556,114 | 5,365,024 | -333,959 | 5,505,334 | -193,649 | 4,841,836 | 352,545 | 5,181,325 | -183,699 | ||
| Population | 9,866,069 | 13,023,533 | 11,193,299 | 1,327,230 | 12,351,720 | -671,813 | 12,502,488 | -521,045 | 10,646,161 | 780,092 | 11,976,360 | -375,360 | ||
Source: Authors’ own calculations based on Ministry of Production and Labor and EPH-INDEC. Notes: Workers in Argentina benefit from a wage bonus, aguinaldos, that is paid twice a year in June and December. Therefore, they are registered and included in the first and third quarters of our simulations but not in the second and fourth ones. Thus, to provide an accurate comparison, the pre-COVID-19 scenario should be compared with the second-quarter-ahead scenario. This is valid for both the scenario with and without policy responses.
| Employment variations | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sector | 1q ahead | 2q ahead | 3q ahead | |||
| Formal | Informal | Formal | Informal | Formal | Informal | |
| Primary | -0.63 | -0.90 | -0.36 | -0.52 | -0.30 | -0.43 |
| Manufacturing | -0.18 | -0.33 | -0.10 | -0.19 | -0.08 | -0.16 |
| Construction | -0.17 | -0.27 | -0.10 | -0.15 | -0.08 | -0.13 |
| Commerce | -0.12 | -0.44 | -0.07 | -0.25 | -0.06 | -0.21 |
| Hotels and rest. | -0.31 | -0.45 | -0.18 | -0.26 | -0.15 | -0.21 |
| Transp. and com. | -0.19 | -0.44 | -0.11 | -0.25 | -0.09 | -0.21 |
| Financial serv. | -0.25 | -0.44 | -0.14 | -0.26 | -0.12 | -0.21 |
| Education | -0.28 | -0.72 | -0.16 | -0.42 | -0.13 | -0.34 |
| Health | -0.17 | -0.58 | -0.10 | -0.33 | -0.08 | -0.27 |
| Domestic serv. | -0.24 | -0.29 | -0.14 | -0.17 | -0.11 | -0.14 |
| Other | -0.12 | -0.33 | -0.07 | -0.19 | -0.06 | -0.15 |
| Average | -0.24 | -0.47 | -0.14 | -0.27 | -0.11 | -0.22 |
| Wage variations | ||||||
| Formal | Informal | Formal | Informal | Formal | Informal | |
| -0.0034 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 0.25 | |
Source: Authors’ own calculations based on Ministry of Production and Labor and EPH-INDEC. Notes: We assume zero variations on public employment. For wage variations, we use the same criteria than for the rest of employees (INDEC). These are, for each quarter, 1,95 percent, 7.19 percent, and 15.22 percent, respectively.
| Pr (employed=1) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Formal | Informal | |
| Gender (male==1) | 1.307*** | 1.275*** |
| (0.344) | (0.317) | |
| Age | 0.212*** | 0.0964*** |
| (0.0157) | (0.0135) | |
| Age2 | -0.00198*** | -0.000818*** |
| (0.000184) | (0.000165) | |
| Incomplete primary | -0.265 | -0.891 |
| (0.976) | (0.804) | |
| Complete primary | 0.496 | -0.561 |
| (0.925) | (0.782) | |
| Incomplete secondary | 0.334 | -0.773 |
| (0.918) | (0.776) | |
| Complete secondary | 0.637 | -0.86 |
| (0.915) | (0.774) | |
| Incomplete tertiary | 0.406 | -0.897 |
| (0.917) | (0.776) | |
| Complete tertiary | 1.053 | -1.14 |
| (0.904) | (0.763) | |
| Head of HH | 0.845*** | 0.484*** |
| (0.121) | (0.104) | |
| # of children | 0.237** | 0.127 |
| (0.111) | (0.0968) | |
| Marriage status | 0.627*** | 0.368*** |
| (0.0796) | (0.0674) | |
| # HH members | 0.156*** | 0.0783*** |
| (0.0231) | (0.0177) | |
| HH per capita income (log) | 2.013*** | 0.552*** |
| (0.062) | (0.0439) | |
| Observations | 11,656 | 8,478 |
| R2 | 0.3613 | 0.0645 |
Source: Authors’ own estimates based on the Permanent Household Survey (EPH). Notes: Robust standard errors are in parentheses. Statistical significance *** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1. Interaction terms and intercept are included but not reported for briefness.
| 1st quarter 2020 | 2nd quarter 2020 | Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Level | Level | % | |||||||
| Male | Female | All | Male | Female | All | Male | Female | All | |
| Primary | 91,750 | 29,883 | 121,633 | 34,636 | 10,945 | 45,581 | -62.2 | -63.4 | -62.5 |
| Manufacturing | 874,726 | 451,827 | 1,326,553 | 708,487 | 332,908 | 1,041,395 | -19.0 | -26.3 | -21.5 |
| Construction | 1,044,273 | 22,001 | 1,066,274 | 810,563 | 19,909 | 830,472 | -22.4 | -9.5 | -22.1 |
| Commerce | 1,311,071 | 883,783 | 2,194,854 | 1,012,360 | 608,865 | 1,621,225 | -22.8 | -31.1 | -26.1 |
| Hotels and rest. | 278,457 | 183,943 | 462,400 | 191,980 | 104,309 | 296,289 | -31.1 | -43.3 | -35.9 |
| Transp. and com. | 778,999 | 135,834 | 914,833 | 598,012 | 91,637 | 689,649 | -23.2 | -32.5 | -24.6 |
| Financial serv. | 783,739 | 528,898 | 1,312,637 | 566,354 | 389,737 | 956,091 | -27.7 | -26.3 | -27.2 |
| Education | 239,797 | 735,108 | 974,905 | 201,445 | 623,182 | 824,627 | -16.0 | -15.2 | -15.4 |
| Health | 1,033,530 | 1,123,807 | 2,157,337 | 965,203 | 1,004,377 | 1,969,580 | -6.6 | -10.6 | -8.7 |
| Domestic serv. | 47,380 | 942,717 | 990,097 | 24,948 | 697,099 | 722,047 | -47.3 | -26.1 | -27.1 |
| Other | 246,806 | 276,809 | 523,615 | 214,327 | 211,890 | 426,217 | -13.2 | -23.5 | -18.6 |
| Total | 6,730,528 | 5,314,610 | 12,045,138 | 5,328,315 | 4,094,858 | 9,423,173 | -20.8 | -23.0 | -21.8 |
Source: Authors’ own estimates based on Permanent Household Survey (EPH). Notes: The table includes all types of employment (public, private, and self-employment).
| Pre-COVID-19 | Post-COVID-19 scenario (without policy responses) | Post-COVID-19 scenario (with policy responses) | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st quarter 2020 | 1 quarter ahead | 2 quarters ahead | 3 quarters ahead | 1 quarter ahead | 2 quarters ahead | 3 quarters ahead | ||||||||
| Decil | Group | [1] | [2] | [3] | [4] | [5] | [6] | [7] | [8] | [9] | [10] | [11] | [12] | [13] |
| Level | Level | Level | Change[4] - [1](in %) | Level | Change[6] - [2](in %) | Level | Change [8] - [2](in %) | Level | Change [10] - [1](in %) | Level | Change [12] - [6] (in %) | |||
| 1 | Head male | 2876.8 | 2019.1 | 2386.4 | -17.05 | 2382.7 | 18.0 | 2812.6 | 39.3 | 3114.0 | 8.2 | 2856.4 | 19.9 | |
| Head female | 2810.4 | 1933.5 | 2404.7 | -14.43 | 2391.3 | 23.7 | 2869.8 | 48.4 | 3288.3 | 17.0 | 3085.9 | 29.1 | ||
| Decile | 2841.8 | 1974.0 | 2396.1 | -15.69 | 2387.2 | 20.9 | 2842.7 | 44.0 | 3205.8 | 12.8 | 2977.3 | 24.7 | ||
| 2 | Head male | 5881.1 | 4534.6 | 5227.2 | -11.12 | 5008.1 | 10.4 | 5173.8 | 14.1 | 5795.6 | -1.5 | 5413.6 | 8.1 | |
| Head female | 5754.5 | 3920.8 | 4746.2 | -17.52 | 4588.4 | 17.0 | 4635.6 | 18.2 | 5424.5 | -5.7 | 5109.7 | 11.4 | ||
| Decile | 5822.4 | 4250.3 | 5004.4 | -14.05 | 4813.7 | 13.3 | 4924.5 | 15.9 | 5623.7 | -3.4 | 5272.9 | 9.5 | ||
| 3 | Head male | 8223.8 | 6429.1 | 7382.5 | -10.23 | 6966.7 | 8.4 | 7001.6 | 8.9 | 7889.2 | -4.1 | 7301.9 | 4.8 | |
| Head female | 8138.5 | 5810.2 | 7078.7 | -13.02 | 6765.8 | 16.4 | 6414.1 | 10.4 | 7615.7 | -6.4 | 7093.1 | 4.8 | ||
| Decile | 8189.0 | 6176.9 | 7258.7 | -11.36 | 6884.8 | 11.5 | 6762.2 | 9.5 | 7777.8 | -5.0 | 7216.8 | 4.8 | ||
| 4 | Head male | 10352.4 | 7943.7 | 9356.1 | -9.62 | 8676.8 | 9.2 | 8400.7 | 5.8 | 9757.7 | -5.7 | 8876.9 | 2.3 | |
| Head female | 10389.5 | 7609.1 | 8974.6 | -13.62 | 8589.7 | 12.9 | 8139.7 | 7.0 | 9439.9 | -9.1 | 8890.4 | 3.5 | ||
| Decile | 10367.5 | 7807.2 | 9200.6 | -11.26 | 8641.3 | 10.7 | 8294.3 | 6.2 | 9628.1 | -7.1 | 8882.4 | 2.8 | ||
| 5 | Head male | 12904.4 | 10491.4 | 11875.5 | -7.97 | 11122.0 | 6.0 | 10852.8 | 3.4 | 12204.3 | -5.4 | 11323.5 | 1.8 | |
| Head female | 13082.1 | 10147.3 | 11608.8 | -11.26 | 11060.8 | 9.0 | 10654.5 | 5.0 | 12050.0 | -7.9 | 11273.4 | 1.9 | ||
| Decile | 12978.9 | 10347.1 | 11763.7 | -9.36 | 11096.3 | 7.2 | 10769.7 | 4.1 | 12139.6 | -6.5 | 11302.5 | 1.9 | ||
| 6 | Head male | 16017.4 | 13231.7 | 14856.3 | -7.25 | 13547.2 | 2.4 | 13519.3 | 2.2 | 15123.6 | -5.6 | 13710.4 | 1.2 | |
| Head female | 16023.9 | 12326.6 | 14745.6 | -7.98 | 13698.8 | 11.1 | 12776.4 | 3.6 | 15128.6 | -5.6 | 13906.7 | 1.5 | ||
| Decile | 16019.6 | 12918.2 | 14818.0 | -7.50 | 13599.7 | 5.3 | 13262.0 | 2.7 | 15125.3 | -5.6 | 13778.4 | 1.3 | ||
| 7 | Head male | 19768.0 | 16373.9 | 18662.9 | -5.59 | 17113.0 | 4.5 | 16612.0 | 1.5 | 18883.1 | -4.5 | 17261.5 | 0.9 | |
| Head female | 19819.5 | 16361.2 | 18490.0 | -6.71 | 16927.5 | 3.5 | 16651.9 | 1.8 | 18757.7 | -5.4 | 17118.9 | 1.1 | ||
| Decile | 19789.5 | 16368.6 | 18590.6 | -6.06 | 17035.5 | 4.1 | 16628.7 | 1.6 | 18830.7 | -4.8 | 17201.9 | 1.0 | ||
| 8 | Head male | 24920.4 | 21226.2 | 23533.0 | -5.57 | 21187.1 | -0.2 | 21430.0 | 1.0 | 23721.8 | -4.8 | 21320.8 | 0.6 | |
| Head female | 25243.5 | 21744.7 | 24002.2 | -4.92 | 22073.2 | 1.5 | 22025.2 | 1.3 | 24263.6 | -3.9 | 22225.9 | 0.7 | ||
| Decile | 25037.3 | 21413.7 | 23702.7 | -5.33 | 21507.7 | 0.4 | 21645.3 | 1.1 | 23917.8 | -4.5 | 21648.2 | 0.7 | ||
| 9 | Head male | 33505.8 | 28632.5 | 32187.2 | -3.94 | 28267.5 | -1.3 | 28791.9 | 0.6 | 32330.1 | -3.5 | 28354.1 | 0.3 | |
| Head female | 33536.6 | 28922.2 | 32361.5 | -3.50 | 29063.2 | 0.5 | 29100.1 | 0.6 | 32512.2 | -3.1 | 29152.7 | 0.3 | ||
| Decile | 33516.6 | 28733.5 | 32248.0 | -3.78 | 28544.9 | -0.7 | 28899.3 | 0.6 | 32393.6 | -3.4 | 28632.5 | 0.3 | ||
| 10 | Head male | 64176.4 | 53944.6 | 61847.3 | -3.63 | 52654.1 | -2.4 | 54050.2 | 0.2 | 61947.0 | -3.5 | 52708.0 | 0.1 | |
| Head female | 65193.7 | 55416.9 | 62714.9 | -3.80 | 54648.5 | -1.4 | 55557.0 | 0.3 | 62839.6 | -3.6 | 54701.1 | 0.1 | ||
| Decile | 64559.5 | 54499.1 | 62174.1 | -3.69 | 53405.3 | -2.0 | 54617.7 | 0.2 | 62283.2 | -3.5 | 53458.7 | 0.1 | ||
| All | Head male | 20717.0 | 17218.3 | 19557.8 | -5.60 | 17406.4 | 1.1 | 17583.7 | 2.1 | 19888.1 | -4.0 | 17616.4 | 1.2 | |
| Head female | 18746.6 | 15334.1 | 17495.6 | -6.67 | 15901.6 | 3.7 | 15823.0 | 3.2 | 17940.1 | -4.3 | 16198.6 | 1.9 | ||
| Population | 19914.0 | 16450.4 | 18717.4 | -6.01 | 16793.1 | 2.1 | 16866.1 | 2.5 | 19094.2 | -4.1 | 17038.6 | 1.5 | ||
Source: Authors’ own calculations based on Ministry of Production and Labor and EPH-INDEC. Notes: Workers in Argentina benefit from a wage bonus, aguinaldos, that is paid twice a year in June and December. Therefore, they are registered and included in the first and third quarters of our simulations but not in the second and fourth ones. Thus, to provide an accurate comparison, the pre-COVID-19 scenario should be compared with the second-quarter-ahead scenario. This is valid for both the scenario with and without policy responses.
| Pre-COVID-19 | Post-COVID-19 scenario (without policy responses) | Post-COVID-19 scenario (with policy responses) | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st quarter 2020 | 1 quarter ahead | 2 quarters ahead | 3 quarters ahead | 1 quarter ahead | 2 quarters ahead | 3 quarters ahead | ||||||||
| Sector | Group | [1] | [2] | [3] | [4] | [5] | [6] | [7] | [8] | [9] | [10] | [11] | [12] | [13] |
| Level | Level | Level | Change [4] - [1] (in %) | Level | Change [6] - [2] (in %) | Level | Change [8] - [2] (in %) | Level | Change [10] - [1] (in %) | Level | Change [12] - [6] (in %) | |||
| Primary act. | Head male | 36813.8 | 22837.4 | 32161.1 | -12.6 | 27830.7 | 21.9 | 23202.8 | 1.6 | 32424.3 | -11.9 | 27945.6 | 0.4 | |
| Head female | 30860.1 | 15576.9 | 23544.3 | -23.7 | 21181.2 | 36.0 | 16024.4 | 2.9 | 23934.9 | -22.4 | 21405.0 | 1.1 | ||
| Sector | 35381.3 | 21090.5 | 30087.9 | -15.0 | 26230.8 | 24.4 | 21475.7 | 1.8 | 30381.8 | -14.1 | 26371.9 | 0.5 | ||
| Manufac- turing | Head male | 19989.8 | 16026.3 | 18621.2 | -6.8 | 16331.7 | 1.9 | 16396.8 | 2.3 | 18954.0 | -5.2 | 16485.8 | 0.9 | |
| Head female | 17260.7 | 13267.5 | 15606.6 | -9.6 | 14307.4 | 7.8 | 13801.5 | 4.0 | 16082.7 | -6.8 | 14568.9 | 1.8 | ||
| Sector | 19020.6 | 15046.6 | 17550.6 | -7.7 | 15612.8 | 3.8 | 15475.1 | 2.8 | 17934.3 | -5.7 | 15805.1 | 1.2 | ||
| Constru- ction | Head male | 14908.3 | 12140.8 | 13967.8 | -6.3 | 12659.0 | 4.3 | 12779.0 | 5.3 | 14558.4 | -2.3 | 12928.4 | 2.1 | |
| Head female | 13641.8 | 10299.1 | 12277.8 | -10.0 | 11321.5 | 9.9 | 10839.4 | 5.2 | 12773.2 | -6.4 | 11645.0 | 2.9 | ||
| Sector | 14493.5 | 11537.6 | 13414.3 | -7.4 | 12220.9 | 5.9 | 12143.8 | 5.3 | 13973.7 | -3.6 | 12508.1 | 2.3 | ||
| Commerce | Head male | 18750.6 | 15335.0 | 17579.7 | -6.2 | 15853.3 | 3.4 | 15799.7 | 3.0 | 18006.8 | -4.0 | 16066.3 | 1.3 | |
| Head female | 17827.3 | 13716.8 | 16310.7 | -8.5 | 14985.7 | 9.3 | 14271.4 | 4.0 | 16813.1 | -5.7 | 15249.8 | 1.8 | ||
| Sector | 18401.6 | 14723.3 | 17100.0 | -7.1 | 15525.3 | 5.4 | 15222.0 | 3.4 | 17555.6 | -4.6 | 15757.6 | 1.5 | ||
| Hotels and rest. | Head male | 17423.5 | 13116.4 | 15739.9 | -9.7 | 14196.0 | 8.2 | 13640.7 | 4.0 | 16204.1 | -7.0 | 14368.0 | 1.2 | |
| Head female | 16560.2 | 11427.0 | 14373.7 | -13.2 | 12941.8 | 13.3 | 11998.8 | 5.0 | 14859.8 | -10.3 | 13203.5 | 2.0 | ||
| Sector | 17049.4 | 12384.3 | 15147.9 | -11.2 | 13652.5 | 10.2 | 12929.2 | 4.4 | 15621.6 | -8.4 | 13863.4 | 1.5 | ||
| Tran. and com. | Head male | 24247.9 | 19141.4 | 22432.7 | -7.5 | 19678.4 | 2.8 | 19477.1 | 1.8 | 22731.1 | -6.3 | 19824.2 | 0.7 | |
| Head female | 25173.4 | 18819.4 | 22697.5 | -9.8 | 20257.9 | 7.6 | 19160.1 | 1.8 | 22986.2 | -8.7 | 20399.6 | 0.7 | ||
| Sector | 24533.3 | 19042.1 | 22514.4 | -8.2 | 19857.1 | 4.3 | 19379.4 | 1.8 | 22809.8 | -7.0 | 20001.7 | 0.7 | ||
| Financial serv. | Head male | 29727.0 | 24441.8 | 27713.6 | -6.8 | 24574.5 | 0.5 | 24728.0 | 1.2 | 27967.8 | -5.9 | 24683.9 | 0.4 | |
| Head female | 26969.8 | 20540.5 | 24609.8 | -8.8 | 21681.1 | 5.6 | 20926.5 | 1.9 | 24938.6 | -7.5 | 21800.6 | 0.6 | ||
| Sector | 28750.7 | 23060.5 | 26614.6 | -7.4 | 23550.0 | 2.1 | 23382.0 | 1.4 | 26895.2 | -6.5 | 23663.0 | 0.5 | ||
| Education | Head male | 28563.8 | 23565.4 | 26985.3 | -5.5 | 22982.5 | -2.5 | 23658.5 | 0.4 | 27069.8 | -5.2 | 23015.4 | 0.1 | |
| Head female | 27261.2 | 22627.4 | 25685.2 | -5.8 | 22364.7 | -1.2 | 22797.2 | 0.8 | 25830.7 | -5.2 | 22418.4 | 0.2 | ||
| Sector | 27983.4 | 23147.5 | 26406.0 | -5.6 | 22707.2 | -1.9 | 23274.8 | 0.5 | 26517.7 | -5.2 | 22749.4 | 0.2 | ||
| Soc. and health | Head male | 30351.3 | 25821.1 | 29034.2 | -4.3 | 25062.0 | -2.9 | 25963.8 | 0.6 | 29162.2 | -3.9 | 25120.4 | 0.2 | |
| Head female | 26952.0 | 22510.3 | 25606.0 | -5.0 | 22136.8 | -1.7 | 22732.7 | 1.0 | 25804.1 | -4.3 | 22237.4 | 0.5 | ||
| Sector | 28959.7 | 24465.7 | 27630.8 | -4.6 | 23864.5 | -2.5 | 24641.0 | 0.7 | 27787.5 | -4.0 | 23940.1 | 0.3 | ||
| Domestic serv. | Head male | 12683.2 | 9882.2 | 11586.0 | -8.7 | 10526.5 | 6.5 | 10427.7 | 5.5 | 12094.6 | -4.6 | 10771.9 | 2.3 | |
| Head female | 11652.9 | 8560.4 | 10398.5 | -10.8 | 9574.0 | 11.8 | 9585.7 | 12.0 | 11355.6 | -2.6 | 9939.9 | 3.8 | ||
| Sector | 12080.5 | 9108.9 | 10891.3 | -9.8 | 9969.3 | 9.4 | 9935.1 | 9.1 | 11662.2 | -3.5 | 10285.2 | 3.2 | ||
| Other serv. | Head male | 21020.8 | 17336.8 | 19808.2 | -5.8 | 17438.2 | 0.6 | 17710.4 | 2.2 | 20149.1 | -4.1 | 17577.5 | 0.8 | |
| Head female | 22221.4 | 18924.4 | 20941.3 | -5.8 | 19308.4 | 2.0 | 19492.4 | 3.0 | 21467.2 | -3.4 | 19586.9 | 1.4 | ||
| Sector | 21463.2 | 17921.9 | 20225.8 | -5.8 | 18127.4 | 1.1 | 18367.1 | 2.5 | 20634.8 | -3.9 | 18318.0 | 1.1 | ||
| All | Head male | 24977.5 | 20058.8 | 23392.5 | -6.3 | 20294.4 | 1.2 | 20405.7 | 1.7 | 23705.5 | -5.1 | 20434.2 | 0.7 | |
| Head female | 23659.2 | 18439.3 | 21722.3 | -8.2 | 19144.0 | 3.8 | 18910.9 | 2.6 | 22146.5 | -6.4 | 19339.6 | 1.0 | ||
| All Sectors | 24460.2 | 19423.3 | 22737.1 | -7.0 | 19843.0 | 2.2 | 19819.1 | 2.0 | 23093.7 | -5.6 | 20004.7 | 0.8 | ||
Source: Authors’ own calculations based on Ministry of Production and Labor and EPH-INDEC. Notes: Workers in Argentina benefit from a wage bonus, aguinaldos, that is paid twice a year in June and December. Therefore, they are registered and included in the first and third quarters of our simulations but not in the second and fourth ones. Thus, to provide an accurate comparison, the pre-COVID-19 scenario should be compared with the second-quarter-ahead scenario. This is valid for the scenario with and without the policy response.
