1. Labour supply and demand
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EUROLAB: A Multidimensional Labour Supply-Demand Model for EU Countries

  1. Edlira Narazani  Is a corresponding author
  2. Ugo Colombino
  3. Bianey Palma
  1. The Joint Research Centre, the European Commission, Spain
  2. Dipartimento di Economia e Statistica, University of Turin, Italy
Research article
Cite this article as: E. Narazani, U. Colombino, B. Palma; 2023; EUROLAB: A Multidimensional Labour Supply-Demand Model for EU Countries; International Journal of Microsimulation; 16(3); 49-76. doi: 10.34196/ijm.00288
2 figures and 9 tables

Figures

A snapshot of EUROLAB Configuration
Labour market equilibrium

Tables

Table A1
Conditional Logit results
  CouplesSingle WomenSingle Men
clogit dependent variable
In-work dummy Male-1.069*
(-2.51)
-0.0994
(-0.39)
Part-time dummy - Male-2.935***
(-8.65)
-2.255***
(-9.94)
Full-time dummy - Male-0.0331
(-0.16)
0.633***
(3.33)
Over-time dummy - Male0.877***
(3.92)
1.637***
(7.66)
In-work dummy Female0.537**
(2.62)
0.329
(1.33)
Part-time dummy - Female-1.188***
(-11.33)
-0.953***
(-5.74)
Full-time dummy - Female0.681***
(5.62)
1.447***
(8.01)
Over-time dummy - Female0.364*
(2.45)
1.366***
(6.65)
Leisure - Male0.0866
(1.42)
0.0250
(0.80)
Leisure square - Male-0.000653
(-1.85)
0.000415
(1.69)
Leisure x age - Male-0.00477*
(-2.23)
-0.00286**
(-3.03)
Leisure x age square - Male0.0000631**
(2.81)
0.0000359**
(3.27)
Leisure x #children - Male-0.00575*
(-1.98)
0.00407
(0.66)
Leisure x #children < 3 year - Male-0.00197
(-0.22)
-0.0151
(-0.22)
Leisure x #children 3-6 year - Male-0.000181
(-0.02)
-0.0183
(-0.45)
Leisure x Migrant - Male-0.0150
(-1.70)
-0.0247***
(-4.78)
Leisure x Mortgage - Male-0.000614*
(-2.20)
-0.000482
(-1.44)
Leisure - Female0.123**
(2.93)
0.00382
(0.11)
Leisure square - Female-0.000759***
(-3.45)
0.00117***
(4.54)
Leisure x age - Female-0.00127
(-0.80)
-0.00550***
(-4.91)
Leisure x age square - Female0.0000133
(0.73)
0.0000671***
(5.26)
Leisure x #children - Female0.00464*
(2.33)
0.0118***
(3.65)
Leisure x #children < 3 year - Female0.00702
(1.40)
0.0148
(1.62)
Leisure x #children 3-6 year - Female0.00108
(0.26)
0.00789
(0.92)
Leisure x Migrant - Female-0.0121*
(-2.02)
-0.0278***
(-5.68)
Leisure x Mortgage - Female-0.000177
(-1.06)
-0.000427
(-1.30)
Leisure Male x Leisure Female0.000768***
(5.14)
Net income0.0109***
(13.44)
0.00794***
(10.66)
0.00542***
(9.54)
Net income square-0.00000277***
(-16.92)
-0.00000271***
(-7.37)
-0.00000198***
(-8.51)
Net income x household size0.000256
(1.93)
0.000463
(1.86)
0.000783***
(3.89)
Net income x Leisure - Male-0.0000234**
(-3.26)
0.00000576
(1.05)
Net income x Leisure - Female-0.0000389***
(-7.36)
0.00000760
(1.13)
Observations2172162402426168
ll-10420.5-4878.9-4924.8
r2_p0.2620.2190.276
aic20904.99791.79883.6
bic21234.29929.210022.5
  1. t statistics in parentheses.

  2. *p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001.

Table A2
The average value of predicted probabilities and observed fractions across labour supply alternatives
PredictedObserved
A. Women in Couple
Inactive0.0177550.020625
Unemployed0.0271740.022982
5 - 220.0110390.00442
22 - 390.1953580.2033
39 - 560.7486740.748674
B. Men in Couple
Inactive0.0411280.043017
Unemployed0.0599560.047731
5 - 220.0828740.070418
22 - 390.4707260.493518
39 - 560.3453150.345315
C. Single Men
Inactive0.2332910.231268
Unemployed0.1598890.162575
5 - 220.1916160.188676
22 - 390.2137980.218327
39 - 560.3154180.316016
D. Single Women
Inactive0.2356180.235188
Unemployed0.1958660.199835
5 - 220.1945520.19799
22 - 390.2525690.254291
39 - 560.3109010.305658
Table A3
Labour elasticities for All, it
AllCouplesSingles
TotalExtensiveIntensiveTotalExtensiveIntensiveTotalExtensiveIntensive
EducationLow level0.1370.1090.0280.1060.0830.0240.1740.1420.033
Middle level0.1190.0930.0260.0900.0650.0240.1560.1270.029
High level0.0880.0580.0290.0730.0400.0330.1070.0830.024
Age20-300.1750.1340.0410.1470.1000.0470.1850.1470.038
31-400.1120.0850.0270.0970.0710.0270.1310.1030.028
41-on0.1120.0860.0260.0840.0590.0250.1510.1240.028
ChildYes0.1320.1020.0310.1010.0700.0310.1480.1170.030
No0.0970.0730.0230.0850.0610.0240.1640.1420.022
MigrantYes0.1180.0910.0260.0890.0630.0260.1560.1280.027
No0.1080.0720.0360.1050.0750.0300.1110.0680.043
Income levelLow0.1660.1310.0360.1320.1030.0300.2080.1650.043
Middle0.1000.0830.0180.0710.0570.0150.1420.1200.022
High0.0500.0190.0310.045-0.0010.0460.0560.0410.015
Total0.1170.0890.0270.0900.0640.0260.1500.1210.029
Table A4
Labour elasticities, men
AllCouplesSingles
TotalExtensiveIntensiveTotalExtensiveIntensiveTotalExtensiveIntensive
EducationLow level0.1270.1030.0250.0760.0640.0120.1860.1470.039
Middle level0.1040.0820.0230.0530.0380.0140.1640.1310.033
High level0.0740.0380.0360.0560.0140.0410.0990.0710.028
Age20-300.1750.1300.0450.0850.0500.0340.1910.1440.047
31-400.0950.0720.0230.0470.0350.0130.1410.1090.033
41-on0.1010.0760.0250.0640.0430.0210.1580.1270.031
ChildYes0.1390.1060.0330.0910.0630.0290.1590.1240.035
No0.0510.0360.0150.0460.0310.0150.1470.1350.012
MigrantYes0.1070.0820.0250.0610.0410.0200.1630.1320.031
No0.0960.0570.0390.0580.0410.0180.1290.0720.058
Income levelLow0.1530.1170.0370.0830.0680.0150.2400.1770.063
Middle0.0810.0790.0020.0300.040-0.0100.1470.1300.017
High0.0660.0130.0540.084-0.0120.0970.0500.0350.015
Total0.1060.0800.0260.0610.0410.0200.1590.1250.034
Table A5
Labour elasticities, women
AllCouplesSingles
TotalExtensiveIntensiveTotalExtensiveIntensiveTotalExtensiveIntensive
EducationLow level0.1500.1180.0320.1460.1070.0390.1570.1340.023
Middle level0.1350.1050.0300.1260.0920.0340.1480.1230.025
High level0.0980.0740.0240.0870.0610.0260.1140.0920.022
Age20-300.1740.1390.0350.1720.1200.0520.1760.1530.022
31-400.1290.0980.0310.1370.0990.0380.1160.0950.021
41-on0.1230.0960.0270.1070.0780.0290.1440.1200.024
ChildYes0.1230.0950.0280.1110.0760.0340.1300.1070.023
No0.1340.1030.0300.1240.0920.0320.1670.1440.024
MigrantYes0.1290.1010.0280.1170.0850.0320.1470.1240.023
No0.1200.0850.0340.1440.1030.0410.0920.0650.027
Income levelLow0.1790.1440.0350.1820.1370.0440.1760.1530.023
Middle0.1220.0870.0350.1120.0730.0390.1370.1080.028
High0.0310.0270.0040.0050.010-0.0060.0650.0490.016
Total0.1280.0990.0290.1200.0870.0330.1400.1170.023
Table A6
Labour supply changes by gender and household type, employees
Baseline, 2021% Change after PIT1% Change after PIT2
Hours of work
MenIn couple - with children39.14-0.31%0.29%
In couple - without children37.63-0.50%0.63%
Single - with children35.67-0.95%1.88%
Single - without children34.68-0.75%1.59%
WomenIn couple - with children30.88-1.05%1.47%
In couple - without children31.61-0.97%1.64%
Single - with children31.71-1.08%2.51%
Single - without children33.16-0.87%1.84%
Participation
MenIn couple - with children0.97-0.29%0.31%
In couple - without children0.94-0.47%0.61%
Single - with children0.90-0.85%1.46%
Single - without children0.88-0.69%1.31%
WomenIn couple - with children0.90-0.70%0.81%
In couple - without children0.92-0.64%0.87%
Single - with children0.86-0.94%1.63%
Single - without children0.89-0.75%1.23%
Unemployment
MenIn couple - with children0.029.39%-11.37%
In couple - without children0.046.75%-11.39%
Single - with children0.057.74%-14.01%
Single - without children0.063.95%-10.22%
WomenIn couple - with children0.056.75%-9.00%
In couple - without children0.056.52%-10.69%
Single - with children0.076.01%-12.03%
Single - without children0.064.70%-10.57%
Inactivity
MenIn couple - with children0.019.49%-7.48%
In couple - without children0.027.95%-6.44%
Single - with children0.057.07%-11.48%
Single - without children0.066.35%-9.05%
WomenIn couple - with children0.046.49%-6.13%
In couple - without children0.047.42%-7.97%
Single - with children0.075.90%-8.71%
Single - without children0.066.99%-8.74%
  1. Note: Children are defined as son-daughter of the decision-making unit. They are not older than 18 years, or if older, in education.

Table A7
Labour supply changes by gender and household type, self-employed
Baseline, 2021% Change after PIT1% Change after PIT2
Hours of work
MenIn couple - with children41.87-0.28%0.25%
In couple - without children39.32-0.44%-0.10%
Single - with children37.09-1.04%2.63%
Single - without children37.33-0.77%1.38%
WomenIn couple - with children32.76-0.85%1.23%
In couple - without children32.73-0.85%1.17%
Single - with children34.19-1.09%2.02%
Single - without children34.78-0.70%1.21%
Participation
MenIn couple - with children0.97-0.25%0.12%
In couple - without children0.94-0.40%-0.11%
Single - with children0.89-0.95%1.53%
Single - without children0.90-0.71%1.01%
WomenIn couple - with children0.93-0.57%0.52%
In couple - without children0.93-0.55%0.46%
Single - with children0.90-0.81%0.78%
Single - without children0.90-0.66%0.69%
Unemployment
MenIn couple - with children0.018.37%-3.83%
In couple - without children0.035.56%3.09%
Single - with children0.058.28%-12.55%
Single - without children0.046.21%-8.81%
WomenIn couple - with children0.037.64%-6.55%
In couple - without children0.037.20%-5.24%
Single - with children0.046.75%-6.52%
Single - without children0.045.85%-6.19%
Inactivity
MenIn couple - with children0.019.05%-4.93%
In couple - without children0.036.31%0.10%
Single - with children0.067.72%-12.98%
Single - without children0.066.29%-9.04%
WomenIn couple - with children0.047.99%-7.61%
In couple - without children0.047.66%-7.08%
Single - with children0.077.07%-6.83%
Single - without children0.065.95%-6.07%
  1. Note: Children are defined as son-daughter of the decision-making unit. They are not older than 18 years, or if older, in education.

Table A8
Labour supply changes by gender and income quintiles
Baseline, 2021% Change after PIT1% Change after PIT2
Hours of work
MenI-II34.42-1.07%1.47%
III-IV36.85-0.98%1.78%
V-VI37.40-0.71%1.47%
VII-VIII37.76-0.43%1.13%
IX-X38.750.05%-0.97%
WomenI-II28.18-1.75%2.12%
III-IV31.89-1.78%3.32%
V-VI33.08-1.24%2.58%
VII-VIII35.19-0.57%1.99%
IX-X34.740.34%-0.45%
Participation
MenI-II0.87-0.89%1.11%
III-IV0.91-0.84%1.36%
V-VI0.93-0.64%1.16%
VII-VIII0.94-0.44%0.94%
IX-X0.94-0.05%-0.58%
WomenI-II0.78-1.29%1.44%
III-IV0.86-1.36%2.14%
V-VI0.89-0.99%1.72%
VII-VIII0.93-0.57%1.30%
IX-X0.910.01%-0.47%
Table A9
% Changes in employment, unemployment and inactivity rate after the PIT reforms
BaselinePIT1PIT2
No Equilibrium (%)With Equilibrium (%)No Equilibrium (%)With Equilibrium (%)
Employment15854397-0.66%-0.62%0.89%0.85%
Inactivity9167966.49%6.03%-7.49%-7.05%
Unemployment7626285.83%5.54%-9.50%-9.29%
Wages1.24%-1.69%
  1. *Definitions: Employment = Total number of people in employment, only labour supply endogenous sample, Inactivity = Total number of people in inactivity, only behavioural sample, Unemployment = Total number of people in unemployment, only behavioural sample, v = Parameter of percentage change in wages.

Data and code availability

We declare that the manuscript contains PROPRIETARY data that consists in 1) the Stata programs, 2) the EUROMOD model and 3) the EU-SILC data. The user needs to request an access to SILC data. EUROMOD is an open-source tool and can be downloaded from the website. The Stata do-files cannot be published in an openly accessible trusted data repository, but authors commit to preserving data and code for a period of no less than five years following publication of the manuscript, and provide reasonable assistance to requests for clarification and replication.

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